Time series analysis-based seasonal autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average to estimate hepatitis B and C epidemics in China

BACKGROUND Hepatitis B(HB)and hepatitis C(HC)place the largest burden in China,and a goal of eliminating them as a major public health threat by 2030 has been set.Making more informed and accurate forecasts of their spread is essential for developing effective strategies,heightening the requirement for early warning to deal with such a major public health threat.AIM To monitor HB and HC epidemics by the design of a paradigmatic seasonal autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average(SARFIMA)for projections into 2030,and to compare the effectiveness with the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average(SARIMA).METHODS Monthly HB and HC incidence cases in China were obtained from January 2004 to June 2023.Descriptive analysis and the Hodrick-Prescott method were employed to identify trends and seasonality.Two periods(from January 2004 to June 2022 and from January 2004 to December 2015,respectively)were used as the training sets to develop both models,while the remaining periods served as the test sets to evaluate the forecasting accuracy.RESULTS There were incidents of 23400874 HB cases and 3590867 HC cases from January 2004 to June 2023.Overall,HB remained steady[average annual percentage change(AAPC)=0.44,95%confidence interval(95%CI):-0.94-1.84]while HC was increasing(AAPC=8.91,95%CI:6.98-10.88),and both had a peak in March and a trough in February.In the 12-step-ahead HB forecast,the mean absolute deviation(15211.94),root mean square error(18762.94),mean absolute percentage error(0.17),mean error rate(0.15),and root mean square percentage error(0.25)under the best SARFIMA(3,0,0)(0,0.449,2)12 were smaller than those under the best SARIMA(3,0,0)(0,1,2)12(16867.71,20775.12,0.19,0.17,and 0.27,respectively).Similar results were also observed for the 90-step-ahead HB,12-step-ahead HC,and 90-step-ahead HC forecasts.The predicted HB incidents totaled 9865400(95%CI:7508093-12222709)cases and HC totaled 1659485(95%CI:856681-2462290)cases during 2023-2030.CONCLUSION Under current interventions,China faces enormous challenges to eliminate HB and HC epidemics by 2030,and effective strategies must be reinforced.The integration of SARFIMA into public health for the management of HB and HC epidemics can potentially result in more informed and efficient interventions,surpassing the capabilities of SARIMA.

Optimal zero-crossing group selection method of the absolute gravimeter based on improved auto-regressive moving average model

An absolute gravimeter is a precision instrument for measuring gravitational acceleration, which plays an important role in earthquake monitoring, crustal deformation, national defense construction, etc. The frequency of laser interference fringes of an absolute gravimeter gradually increases with the fall time. Data are sparse in the early stage and dense in the late stage. The fitting accuracy of gravitational acceleration will be affected by least-squares fitting according to the fixed number of zero-crossing groups. In response to this problem, a method based on Fourier series fitting is proposed in this paper to calculate the zero-crossing point. The whole falling process is divided into five frequency bands using the Hilbert transformation. The multiplicative auto-regressive moving average model is then trained according to the number of optimal zero-crossing groups obtained by the honey badger algorithm. Through this model, the number of optimal zero-crossing groups determined in each segment is predicted by the least-squares fitting. The mean value of gravitational acceleration in each segment is then obtained. The method can improve the accuracy of gravitational measurement by more than 25% compared to the fixed zero-crossing groups method. It provides a new way to improve the measuring accuracy of an absolute gravimeter.

Application of Seasonal Auto-regressive Integrated Moving Average Model in Forecasting the Incidence of Hand-foot-mouth Disease in Wuhan,China

Outbreaks of hand-foot-mouth disease（HFMD） have occurred many times and caused serious health burden in China since 2008. Application of modern information technology to prediction and early response can be helpful for efficient HFMD prevention and control. A seasonal auto-regressive integrated moving average（ARIMA） model for time series analysis was designed in this study. Eighty-four-month（from January 2009 to December 2015） retrospective data obtained from the Chinese Information System for Disease Prevention and Control were subjected to ARIMA modeling. The coefficient of determination（R^2）, normalized Bayesian Information Criterion（BIC） and Q-test P value were used to evaluate the goodness-of-fit of constructed models. Subsequently, the best-fitted ARIMA model was applied to predict the expected incidence of HFMD from January 2016 to December 2016. The best-fitted seasonal ARIMA model was identified as（1,0,1）（0,1,1）12, with the largest coefficient of determination（R^2=0.743） and lowest normalized BIC（BIC=3.645） value. The residuals of the model also showed non-significant autocorrelations（P_（Box-Ljung（Q））=0.299）. The predictions by the optimum ARIMA model adequately captured the pattern in the data and exhibited two peaks of activity over the forecast interval, including a major peak during April to June, and again a light peak for September to November. The ARIMA model proposed in this study can forecast HFMD incidence trend effectively, which could provide useful support for future HFMD prevention and control in the study area. Besides, further observations should be added continually into the modeling data set, and parameters of the models should be adjusted accordingly.

Autoregressive moving average model as a multi-agent routing protocol for wireless sensor networks

A prediction-aided routing algorithm based on ant colony optimization mode （PRACO） to achieve energy-aware data-gathering routing structure in wireless sensor networks （WSN） is presented. We adopt autoregressive moving average model （ARMA） to predict dynamic tendency in data traffic and deduce the construction of load factor, which can help to reveal the future energy status of sensor in WSN. By checking the load factor in heuristic factor and guided by novel pheromone updating rule, multi-agent, i. e. , artificial ants, can adaptively foresee the local energy state of networks and the corresponding actions could be taken to enhance the energy efficiency in routing construction. Compared with some classic energy-saving routing schemes, the simulation results show that the proposed routing building scheme can ① effectively reinforce the robustness of routing structure by mining the temporal associability and introducing multi-agent optimization to balance the total energy cost for data transmission, ② minimize the total communication consumption, and ③prolong the lifetime of networks.

Probability distribution of wind power volatility based on the moving average method and improved nonparametric kernel density estimation

In the process of large-scale,grid-connected wind power operations,it is important to establish an accurate probability distribution model for wind farm fluctuations.In this study,a wind power fluctuation modeling method is proposed based on the method of moving average and adaptive nonparametric kernel density estimation(NPKDE)method.Firstly,the method of moving average is used to reduce the fluctuation of the sampling wind power component,and the probability characteristics of the modeling are then determined based on the NPKDE.Secondly,the model is improved adaptively,and is then solved by using constraint-order optimization.The simulation results show that this method has a better accuracy and applicability compared with the modeling method based on traditional parameter estimation,and solves the local adaptation problem of traditional NPKDE.

Examination of the profitability of technical analysis based on moving average strategies in BRICS

In this paper,we investigated the profitability of technical analysis as applied to the stock markets of the BRICS member nations.In addition,we searched for evidence that technical analysis and fundamental analysis can complement each other in these markets.To implement this research,we created a comprehensive portfolio containing the assets traded in the markets of each BRICS member.We developed an automated trading system that simulated transactions in this portfolio using technical analysis techniques.Our assessment updated the findings of previous research by including more recent data and adding South Africa,the latest member included in BRICS.Our results showed that the returns obtained by the automated system,on average,exceeded the value invested.There were groups of assets from each country that performed well above the portfolio average,surpassing the returns obtained using a buy and hold strategy.The returns from the sample portfolio were very strong in Russia and India.We also found that technical analysis can help fundamental analysis identify the most dynamic companies in the stock market.

Forecasting risk using auto regressive integrated moving average approach: an evidence from S&P BSE Sensex

The primary objective of the paper is to forecast the beta values of companies listed on Sensex,Bombay Stock Exchange(BSE).The BSE Sensex constitutes 30 top most companies listed which are popularly known as blue-chip companies.To reach out the predefined objectives of the research,Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average method is used to forecast the future risk and returns for 10 years of historical data from April 2007 to March 2017.Validation accomplished by comparison of forecasted and actual beta values for the hold back period of 2 years.Root-Mean-Square-Error and Mean-Absolute-Error both are used for accuracy measurement.The results revealed that out of 30 listed companies in the BSE Sensex,10 companies’exhibits high beta values,12 companies are with moderate and 8 companies are with low beta values.Further,it is to note that Housing Development Finance Corporation(HDFC)exhibits more inconsistency in terms of beta values though the average beta value is lowest among the companies under the study.A mixed trend is found in forecasted beta values of the BSE Sensex.In this analysis,all the p-values are less than the F-stat values except the case of Tata Steel and Wipro.Therefore,the null hypotheses were rejected leaving Tata Steel and Wipro.The values of actual and forecasted values are showing the almost same results with low error percentage.Therefore,it is concluded from the study that the estimation ARIMA could be acceptable,and forecasted beta values are accurate.So far,there are many studies on ARIMA model to forecast the returns of the stocks based on their historical data.But,hardly there are very few studies which attempt to forecast the returns on the basis of their beta values.Certainly,the attempt so made is a novel approach which has linked risk directly with return.On the basis of the present study,authors try to through light on investment decisions by linking it with beta values of respective stocks.Further,the outcomes of the present study undoubtedly useful to academicians,researchers,and policy makers in their respective area of studies.

CONSTRUCTION OF POLYNOMIAL MATRIX USING BLOCK COEFFICIENT MATRIX REPRESENTATION AUTO-REGRESSIVE MOVING AVERAGE MODEL FOR ACTIVELY CONTROLLED STRUCTURES

The polynomial matrix using the block coefficient matrix representation auto-regressive moving average(referred to as the PM-ARMA)model is constructed in this paper for actively controlled multi-degree-of-freedom(MDOF)structures with time-delay through equivalently transforming the preliminary state space realization into the new state space realization.The PM-ARMA model is a more general formulation with respect to the polynomial using the coefficient representation auto-regressive moving average(ARMA)model due to its capability to cope with actively controlled structures with any given structural degrees of freedom and any chosen number of sensors and actuators.(The sensors and actuators are required to maintain the identical number.)under any dimensional stationary stochastic excitation.

Cyclic moving average control approach to cylinder pressure and its experimental validation

Cyclic variability is a factor adversely affecting engine performance. In this paper a cyclic moving average regulation approach to cylinder pressure at top dead center （TDC） is proposed, where the ignition time is adopted as the control input. The dynamics from ignition time to the moving average index is described by ARMA model. With this model, a one-step ahead prediction-based minimum variance controller （MVC） is developed for regulation. The performance of the proposed controller is illustrated by experiments with a commercial car engine and experimental results show that the controller has a reliable effect on index regulation when the engine works under different fuel injection strategies, load changing and throttle opening disturbance.

Investigations of Tracking Phenomena in Silicone Rubber Using Moving Average Current Technique

In the present work, tracking phenomenon in Silicone rubber material has beenstudied under AC and DC voltage, with ammonium chloride as a contaminant. It is observed that thetracking is more severe under the DC voltages. The tracking time is less under negative DC comparedto the positive DC voltage. The tracking mechanism is explained in detail. The leakage currentduring the tracking studies was as measured and the moving average technique was adopted tounderstand the trend in current flow. The leakage current magnitude is high with thermally agedspecimens compared to the virgin specimen, irrespective of the type of applied voltage. It isrealized that the tracking time and the leakage current magnitude shows an inverse relationship.

Noise reduction of acoustic Doppler velocimeter data based on Kalman filtering and autoregressive moving average models

Oceanic turbulence measurements made by an acoustic Doppler velocimeter(ADV)suffer from noise that potentially affects the estimates of turbulence statistics.This study examines the abilities of Kalman filtering and autoregressive moving average models to eliminate noise in ADV velocity datasets of laboratory experiments and offshore observations.Results show that the two methods have similar performance in ADV de-noising,and both effectively reduce noise in ADV velocities,even in cases of high noise.They eliminate the noise floor at high frequencies of the velocity spectra,leading to a longer range that effectively fits the Kolmogorov-5/3 slope at midrange frequencies.After de-noising adopting the two methods,the values of the mean velocity are almost unchanged,while the root-mean-square horizontal velocities and thus turbulent kinetic energy decrease appreciably in these experiments.The Reynolds stress is also affected by high noise levels,and de-noising thus reduces uncertainties in estimating the Reynolds stress.

The New Neutrosophic Double and Triple Exponentially Weighted Moving Average Control Charts

The concept of neutrosophic statistics is applied to propose two monitoring schemes which are an improvement of the neutrosophic exponentially weighted moving average(NEWMA)chart.In this study,two control charts are designed under the uncertain environment or neutrosophic statistical interval system,when all observations are undermined,imprecise or fuzzy.These are termed neutrosophic double and triple exponentially weighted moving average(NDEWMA and NTEWMA)control charts.For the proficiency of the proposed chart,Monte Carlo simulations are used to calculate the run-length characteristics(such as average run length(ARL),standard deviation of the run length(SDRL),percentiles(P_(25),P_(50),P_(75)))of the proposed charts.The structures of the proposed control charts are more effective in detecting small shifts while these are comparable with the other existing charts in detecting moderate and large shifts.The simulation study and real-life implementations of the proposed charts show that the proposed NDEWMA and NTEWMA charts perform better in monitoring the process of road traffic crashes and electric engineering data as compared to the existing control charts.Therefore,the proposed charts will be helpful in minimizing the road accident and minimizing the defective products.Furthermore,the proposed charts are more acceptable and actual to apply in uncertain environment.

Parameters optimization for exponentially weighted moving average control chart using generalized regression neural network

As a useful alternative of Shewhart control chart, exponentially weighted moving average （EWMA） control chat has been applied widely to quality control, process monitoring, forecast, etc. In this paper, a method was introduced for optimal design of EWMA and multivariate EWMA （MEWMA） control charts, in which the optimal parameter pair （ λ, k） or （ λ, h ） was searched by using the generalized regression neural network （GRNN）. The results indicate that the optimal parameter pair can be obtained effectively by the proposed strategy for a given in-control average running length （ARLo） and shift to detect under any conditions, removing the drawback of incompleteness existing in the tables that had been reported.

The Convergence of a Moving Average Process of AANA Random Variables

Based on the asymptotically almost negatively associated(AANA) random variables, we investigate the complete moment convergence for a moving average process under the moment condition E[Y log(1 + Y)] < ∞. As an application, Marcinkiewicz-Zygmundtype strong law of large numbers for this moving average process is presented in this paper.

Smoothing GNSS Time Series with Asymmetric Simple Moving Averages

There is an increasing trend to apply GNSS continuous observation of short baselines to the monitoring of engineering works, such as bridges and dams, for their structural analysis and safety control. In the case of large dams, one important application of the GNSS continuous observation is thc establishment of early warning systems that demand accurate, frequently updated information and where the analysis of the baseline time series, in order to separate signal from noise is mandatory. The paper presents a study on the performance of linear filters of the asymmetric moving average type to smooth baseline time series. The transfer function of the filter is adopted as a smoothing criterion to choose an adequate order for the moving average, in face of the spectral density function of the baseline time series. Onc series of measurements of a short test baseline （325 m）, materialized in the campus of the National Laboratory for Civil Engineering, is used as an example of the proposed strategy.

Autoregressive moving average model for matrix time series

In the paper,the autoregressive moving average model for matrix time series(MARMA)is inves-tigated.The properties of the MARMA model are investigated by using the conditional least square estimation,the conditional maximum likelihood estimation,the projection theorem in Hilbert space and the decomposition technique of time series,which include necessary and suf-ficient conditions for stationarity and invertibility,model parameter estimation,model testing and model forecasting.

Convergence Rates for Probabilities of Moderate Deviations for Moving Average Processes

The present paper first shows that, without any dependent structure assumptions for a sequence of random variables, the refined results of the complete convergence for the sequence is equivalent to the corresponding complete moment convergence of the sequence. Then this paper investigates the convergence rates and refined convergence rates （or complete moment convergence） for probabilities of moderate deviations of moving average processes. The results in this paper extend and generalize some well-known results.

The Precise Asymptotics of the Complete Convergence for Moving Average Processes of m-Dependent B-Valued Elements

Let {εt;t ∈ Z} be a sequence of m-dependent B-valued random elements with mean zeros and finite second moment. {a3;j ∈ Z} is a sequence of real numbers satisfying ∑j=-∞^∞｜aj｜ 〈 ∞. Define a moving average process Xt = ∑j=-∞^∞aj＋tEj,t ≥ 1, and Sn = ∑t=1^n Xt,n ≥ 1. In this article, by using the weak convergence theorem of { Sn/√ n _〉 1}, we study the precise asymptotics of the complete convergence for the sequence {Xt; t ∈ N}.

A moving average Cholesky factor model in joint mean-covariance modeling for longitudinal data

Modeling the mean and covariance simultaneously is a common strategy to efficiently estimate the mean parameters when applying generalized estimating equation techniques to longitudinal data. In this article, using generalized estimation equation techniques, we propose a new kind of regression models for parameterizing covariance structures. Using a novel Cholesky factor, the entries in this decomposition have moving average and log innovation interpretation and are modeled as the regression coefficients in both the mean and the linear functions of covariates. The resulting estimators for eovarianee are shown to be consistent and asymptotically normally distributed. Simulation studies and a real data analysis show that the proposed approach yields highly efficient estimators for the parameters in the mean, and provides parsimonious estimation for the covariance structure.

Exponential Bounds for Ruin Probability in Two Moving Average Risk Models with Constant Interest Rate

The authors consider two discrete-time insurance risk models. Two moving average risk models are introduced to model the surplus process, and the probabilities of ruin are examined in models with a constant interest force. Exponential bounds for ruin probabilities of an infinite time horizon are derived by the martingale method.