Autonomous air combat maneuver decision using Bayesian inference and moving horizon optimization

To reach a higher level of autonomy for unmanned combat aerial vehicle(UCAV) in air combat games, this paper builds an autonomous maneuver decision system. In this system,the air combat game is regarded as a Markov process, so that the air combat situation can be effectively calculated via Bayesian inference theory. According to the situation assessment result,adaptively adjusts the weights of maneuver decision factors, which makes the objective function more reasonable and ensures the superiority situation for UCAV. As the air combat game is characterized by highly dynamic and a significant amount of uncertainty,to enhance the robustness and effectiveness of maneuver decision results, fuzzy logic is used to build the functions of four maneuver decision factors. Accuracy prediction of opponent aircraft is also essential to ensure making a good decision; therefore, a prediction model of opponent aircraft is designed based on the elementary maneuver method. Finally, the moving horizon optimization strategy is used to effectively model the whole air combat maneuver decision process. Various simulations are performed on typical scenario test and close-in dogfight, the results sufficiently demonstrate the superiority of the designed maneuver decision method.

A hybrid data-driven and mechanism-based method for vehicle trajectory prediction

Ensuring the safe and efficient operation of self-driving vehicles relies heavily on accurately predicting their future trajectories.Existing approaches commonly employ an encoder-decoder neural network structure to enhance information extraction during the encoding phase.However,these methods often neglect the inclusion of road rule constraints during trajectory formulation in the decoding phase.This paper proposes a novel method that combines neural networks and rule-based constraints in the decoder stage to improve trajectory prediction accuracy while ensuring compliance with vehicle kinematics and road rules.The approach separates vehicle trajectories into lateral and longitudinal routes and utilizes conditional variational autoencoder(CVAE)to capture trajectory uncertainty.The evaluation results demonstrate a reduction of 32.4%and 27.6%in the average displacement error(ADE)for predicting the top five and top ten trajectories,respectively,compared to the baseline method.