Preweaning period is a critical window for rumen microbial regulation of average daily gain in Holstein heifer calves

Background Rumen bacterial groups can affect growth performance,such as average daily gain(ADG),feed intake,and efficiency.The study aimed to investigate the inter-relationship of rumen bacterial composition,rumen fermentation indicators,serum indicators,and growth performance of Holstein heifer calves with different ADG.Twelve calves were chosen from a trail with 60 calves and divided into higher ADG(HADG,high pre-and post-weaning ADG,n=6)and lower ADG(LADG,low pre-and post-weaning ADG,n=6)groups to investigate differences in bacterial composition and functions and host phenotype.Results During the preweaning period,the relative abundances of propionate producers,including g_norank_f_Butyricicoccaceae,g_Pyramidobacter,and g_norank_f_norank_o_Clostridia_vadin BB60_group,were higher in HADG calves(LDA>2,P<0.05).Enrichment of these bacteria resulted in increased levels of propionate,a gluconeogenic precursor,in preweaning HADG calves(adjusted P<0.05),which consequently raised serum glucose concentrations(adjusted P<0.05).In contrast,the relative abundances of rumen bacteria in post-weaning HADG calves did not exert this effect.Moreover,no significant differences were observed in rumen fermentation parameters and serum indices between the two groups.Conclusions The findings of this study revealed that the preweaning period is the window of opportunity for rumen bacteria to regulate the ADG of calves.

Libration-Generated Average Convection in a Rotating Flat Layer with Horizontal Axis

The study of average convection in a rotating cavity subjected to modulated rotation is an interesting area for the development of both fundamental and applied science.This phenomenon finds application in the field of mass transfer and fluid flow control,relevant examples being crystal growth under reduced gravity and fluid mixing in microfluidic devices for cell cultures.In this study,the averaged flow generated by the oscillating motion of a fluid in a planar layer rotating about a horizontal axis is experimentally investigated.The boundaries of the layer are maintained at constant temperatures,while the lateral cylindrical wall is thermally insulated.It is demonstrated that libration results in intense oscillatory fluid motion,which in turn produces a time-averaged flow.For the first time,quantitative measures for the instantaneous velocity field are obtained using the Particle Image Velocimetry technique.It is revealed that the flow has the form of counter-rotating vortices.The vortex circulations sense changes during a libration cycle.An increase in the rotation rate and amplitude of the cavity libration results in an increase in the flow intensity.The heat transfer and time-averaged velocity are examined accordingly as a function of the dimensionless oscillation frequency,and resonant excitation of heat transfer and average oscillation velocity are revealed.The threshold curve for the onset of the averaged convection is identified in the plane of control parameters(dimensionless rotational velocity and pulsation Reynolds number).It is found that an increase in the dimensionless rotational velocity has a stabilizing effect on the onset of convection.

Optimizing Average Electric Power During the Charging of Lithium-Ion Batteries Through the Taguchi Method

In recent times, lithium-ion batteries have been widely used owing to their high energy density, extended cycle lifespan, and minimal self-discharge rate. The design of high-speed rechargeable lithium-ion batteries faces a significant challenge owing to the need to increase average electric power during charging. This challenge results from the direct influence of the power level on the rate of chemical reactions occurring in the battery electrodes. In this study, the Taguchi optimization method was used to enhance the average electric power during the charging process of lithium-ion batteries. The Taguchi technique is a statistical strategy that facilitates the systematic and efficient evaluation of numerous experimental variables. The proposed method involved varying seven input factors, including positive electrode thickness, positive electrode material, positive electrode active material volume fraction, negative electrode active material volume fraction, separator thickness, positive current collector thickness, and negative current collector thickness. Three levels were assigned to each control factor to identify the optimal conditions and maximize the average electric power during charging. Moreover, a variance assessment analysis was conducted to validate the results obtained from the Taguchi analysis. The results revealed that the Taguchi method was an eff ective approach for optimizing the average electric power during the charging of lithium-ion batteries. This indicates that the positive electrode material, followed by the separator thickness and the negative electrode active material volume fraction, was key factors significantly infl uencing the average electric power during the charging of lithium-ion batteries response. The identification of optimal conditions resulted in the improved performance of lithium-ion batteries, extending their potential in various applications. Particularly, lithium-ion batteries with average electric power of 16 W and 17 W during charging were designed and simulated in the range of 0-12000 s using COMSOL Multiphysics software. This study efficiently employs the Taguchi optimization technique to develop lithium-ion batteries capable of storing a predetermined average electric power during the charging phase. Therefore, this method enables the battery to achieve complete charging within a specific timeframe tailored to a specificapplication. The implementation of this method can save costs, time, and materials compared with other alternative methods, such as the trial-and-error approach.

Average Secrecy Capacity of the Reconfigurable Intelligent Surface-Assisted Integrated Satellite Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Relay Networks

Integrated satellite unmanned aerial vehicle relay networks(ISUAVRNs)have become a prominent topic in recent years.This paper investigates the average secrecy capacity(ASC)for reconfigurable intelligent surface(RIS)-enabled ISUAVRNs.Especially,an eve is considered to intercept the legitimate information from the considered secrecy system.Besides,we get detailed expressions for the ASC of the regarded secrecy system with the aid of the reconfigurable intelligent.Furthermore,to gain insightful results of the major parameters on the ASC in high signalto-noise ratio regime,the approximate investigations are further gotten,which give an efficient method to value the secrecy analysis.At last,some representative computer results are obtained to prove the theoretical findings.

Time series analysis-based seasonal autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average to estimate hepatitis B and C epidemics in China

BACKGROUND Hepatitis B(HB)and hepatitis C(HC)place the largest burden in China,and a goal of eliminating them as a major public health threat by 2030 has been set.Making more informed and accurate forecasts of their spread is essential for developing effective strategies,heightening the requirement for early warning to deal with such a major public health threat.AIM To monitor HB and HC epidemics by the design of a paradigmatic seasonal autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average(SARFIMA)for projections into 2030,and to compare the effectiveness with the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average(SARIMA).METHODS Monthly HB and HC incidence cases in China were obtained from January 2004 to June 2023.Descriptive analysis and the Hodrick-Prescott method were employed to identify trends and seasonality.Two periods(from January 2004 to June 2022 and from January 2004 to December 2015,respectively)were used as the training sets to develop both models,while the remaining periods served as the test sets to evaluate the forecasting accuracy.RESULTS There were incidents of 23400874 HB cases and 3590867 HC cases from January 2004 to June 2023.Overall,HB remained steady[average annual percentage change(AAPC)=0.44,95%confidence interval(95%CI):-0.94-1.84]while HC was increasing(AAPC=8.91,95%CI:6.98-10.88),and both had a peak in March and a trough in February.In the 12-step-ahead HB forecast,the mean absolute deviation(15211.94),root mean square error(18762.94),mean absolute percentage error(0.17),mean error rate(0.15),and root mean square percentage error(0.25)under the best SARFIMA(3,0,0)(0,0.449,2)12 were smaller than those under the best SARIMA(3,0,0)(0,1,2)12(16867.71,20775.12,0.19,0.17,and 0.27,respectively).Similar results were also observed for the 90-step-ahead HB,12-step-ahead HC,and 90-step-ahead HC forecasts.The predicted HB incidents totaled 9865400(95%CI:7508093-12222709)cases and HC totaled 1659485(95%CI:856681-2462290)cases during 2023-2030.CONCLUSION Under current interventions,China faces enormous challenges to eliminate HB and HC epidemics by 2030,and effective strategies must be reinforced.The integration of SARFIMA into public health for the management of HB and HC epidemics can potentially result in more informed and efficient interventions,surpassing the capabilities of SARIMA.

Nonlinear Relationship and Its Evolutionary Trace between Average Degree and Average Path Length of Edge Vertices of China Aviation Network Based on Complex Network

In order to reveal the complex network characteristics and evolution principle of China aviation network,the relationship between the average degree and the average path length of edge vertices of China aviation network in 1988,1994,2001,2008 and 2015 was studied.According to the theory and method of complex network,the network system was constructed with the city where the airport was located as the network node and the airline as the edge of the network.On the basis of the statistical data,the average degree and average path length of edge vertices of China aviation network in 1988,1994,2001,2008 and 2015 were calculated.Through regression analysis,it was found that the average degree had a logarithmic relationship with the average path length of edge vertices and the two parameters of the logarithmic relationship had linear evolutionary trace.

Probability Distribution of Arithmetic Average of China Aviation Network Edge Vertices Nearest Neighbor Average Degree Value and Its Evolutionary Trace Based on Complex Network

In order to reveal the complex network characteristics and evolution principle of China aviation network,the probability distribution and evolution trace of arithmetic average of edge vertices nearest neighbor average degree values of China aviation network were studied based on the statistics data of China civil aviation network in 1988,1994,2001,2008 and 2015.According to the theory and method of complex network,the network system was constructed with the city where the airport was located as the network node and the route between cities as the edge of the network.Based on the statistical data,the arithmetic averages of edge vertices nearest neighbor average degree values of China aviation network in 1988,1994,2001,2008 and 2015 were calculated.Using the probability statistical analysis method,it was found that the arithmetic average of edge vertices nearest neighbor average degree values had the probability distribution of normal function and the position parameters and scale parameters of the probability distribution had linear evolution trace.

Optimal zero-crossing group selection method of the absolute gravimeter based on improved auto-regressive moving average model

An absolute gravimeter is a precision instrument for measuring gravitational acceleration, which plays an important role in earthquake monitoring, crustal deformation, national defense construction, etc. The frequency of laser interference fringes of an absolute gravimeter gradually increases with the fall time. Data are sparse in the early stage and dense in the late stage. The fitting accuracy of gravitational acceleration will be affected by least-squares fitting according to the fixed number of zero-crossing groups. In response to this problem, a method based on Fourier series fitting is proposed in this paper to calculate the zero-crossing point. The whole falling process is divided into five frequency bands using the Hilbert transformation. The multiplicative auto-regressive moving average model is then trained according to the number of optimal zero-crossing groups obtained by the honey badger algorithm. Through this model, the number of optimal zero-crossing groups determined in each segment is predicted by the least-squares fitting. The mean value of gravitational acceleration in each segment is then obtained. The method can improve the accuracy of gravitational measurement by more than 25% compared to the fixed zero-crossing groups method. It provides a new way to improve the measuring accuracy of an absolute gravimeter.

Probability Distribution of China Aviation Network Average Degree of Edge Vertices and Its Evolutionary Trace Based on Complex Network

In order to reveal the complex network characteristics and evolution principle of China aviation network, the probability distribution and evolution trace of average degree of edge vertices of China aviation network were studied based on the statistics data of China civil aviation network in 1988, 1994, 2001, 2008 and 2015. According to the theory and method of complex network, the network system was constructed with the city where the airport was located as the network node and the route between cities as the edge of the network. Based on the statistical data, the average degrees of edge vertices in China aviation network in 1988, 1994, 2001, 2008 and 2015 were calculated. Using the probability statistical analysis method and regression analysis approach, it was found that the average degree of edge vertices had the probability distribution of normal function and the position parameters and scale parameters of the probability distribution had linear evolution trace.

Nonlinear Relationship and Its Evolutionary Trace between Node Degree and Average Path Length of China Aviation Network Based on Complex Network

In order to reveal the complex network characteristics and evolution principle of China aviation network,the relationship between the node degree and the average path length of China aviation network in 1988,1994,2001,2008 and 2015 was studied.According to the theory and method of complex network,the network system was constructed with the city where the airport was located as the network node and the airline as the edge of the network.On the basis of the statistical data,the node average path length of China aviation network in 1988,1994,2001,2008 and 2015 was calculated.Through regression analysis,it was found that the node degree had a logarithmic relationship with the average length of node path,and the two parameters of the logarithmic relationship had linear evolutionary trace.Key word:China aviation network,complex network,node degree,average length of node path,logarithmic relationship,evolutionary trace.

Autoregressive moving average model as a multi-agent routing protocol for wireless sensor networks

A prediction-aided routing algorithm based on ant colony optimization mode （PRACO） to achieve energy-aware data-gathering routing structure in wireless sensor networks （WSN） is presented. We adopt autoregressive moving average model （ARMA） to predict dynamic tendency in data traffic and deduce the construction of load factor, which can help to reveal the future energy status of sensor in WSN. By checking the load factor in heuristic factor and guided by novel pheromone updating rule, multi-agent, i. e. , artificial ants, can adaptively foresee the local energy state of networks and the corresponding actions could be taken to enhance the energy efficiency in routing construction. Compared with some classic energy-saving routing schemes, the simulation results show that the proposed routing building scheme can ① effectively reinforce the robustness of routing structure by mining the temporal associability and introducing multi-agent optimization to balance the total energy cost for data transmission, ② minimize the total communication consumption, and ③prolong the lifetime of networks.

Application of Seasonal Auto-regressive Integrated Moving Average Model in Forecasting the Incidence of Hand-foot-mouth Disease in Wuhan,China

Outbreaks of hand-foot-mouth disease（HFMD） have occurred many times and caused serious health burden in China since 2008. Application of modern information technology to prediction and early response can be helpful for efficient HFMD prevention and control. A seasonal auto-regressive integrated moving average（ARIMA） model for time series analysis was designed in this study. Eighty-four-month（from January 2009 to December 2015） retrospective data obtained from the Chinese Information System for Disease Prevention and Control were subjected to ARIMA modeling. The coefficient of determination（R^2）, normalized Bayesian Information Criterion（BIC） and Q-test P value were used to evaluate the goodness-of-fit of constructed models. Subsequently, the best-fitted ARIMA model was applied to predict the expected incidence of HFMD from January 2016 to December 2016. The best-fitted seasonal ARIMA model was identified as（1,0,1）（0,1,1）12, with the largest coefficient of determination（R^2=0.743） and lowest normalized BIC（BIC=3.645） value. The residuals of the model also showed non-significant autocorrelations（P_（Box-Ljung（Q））=0.299）. The predictions by the optimum ARIMA model adequately captured the pattern in the data and exhibited two peaks of activity over the forecast interval, including a major peak during April to June, and again a light peak for September to November. The ARIMA model proposed in this study can forecast HFMD incidence trend effectively, which could provide useful support for future HFMD prevention and control in the study area. Besides, further observations should be added continually into the modeling data set, and parameters of the models should be adjusted accordingly.

An Improved Signal Segmentation Using Moving Average and Savitzky-Golay Filter

Analysis of long-term EEG signals needs that it be segmented into pseudo stationary epochs. That work is done by regarding to statistical characteristics of a signal such as amplitude and frequency. Time series measured in real world is frequently non-stationary and to extract important information from the measured time series it is significant to utilize a filter or smoother as a pre-processing step. In the proposed approach, the signal is initially filtered by Moving Average (MA) or Savitzky-Golay filter to attenuate its short-term variations. Then, changes of the amplitude or frequency of the signal is calculated by Modified Varri method which is an acceptable algorithm for segmenting a signal. By using synthetic and real EEG data, the proposed methods are compared with original approach (simple Modified Varri). The simulation results indicate the absolute advantage of the proposed methods.

CONSTRUCTION OF POLYNOMIAL MATRIX USING BLOCK COEFFICIENT MATRIX REPRESENTATION AUTO-REGRESSIVE MOVING AVERAGE MODEL FOR ACTIVELY CONTROLLED STRUCTURES

The polynomial matrix using the block coefficient matrix representation auto-regressive moving average(referred to as the PM-ARMA)model is constructed in this paper for actively controlled multi-degree-of-freedom(MDOF)structures with time-delay through equivalently transforming the preliminary state space realization into the new state space realization.The PM-ARMA model is a more general formulation with respect to the polynomial using the coefficient representation auto-regressive moving average(ARMA)model due to its capability to cope with actively controlled structures with any given structural degrees of freedom and any chosen number of sensors and actuators.(The sensors and actuators are required to maintain the identical number.)under any dimensional stationary stochastic excitation.

Cyclic moving average control approach to cylinder pressure and its experimental validation

Cyclic variability is a factor adversely affecting engine performance. In this paper a cyclic moving average regulation approach to cylinder pressure at top dead center （TDC） is proposed, where the ignition time is adopted as the control input. The dynamics from ignition time to the moving average index is described by ARMA model. With this model, a one-step ahead prediction-based minimum variance controller （MVC） is developed for regulation. The performance of the proposed controller is illustrated by experiments with a commercial car engine and experimental results show that the controller has a reliable effect on index regulation when the engine works under different fuel injection strategies, load changing and throttle opening disturbance.

Necessary Conditions for the Application of Moving Average Process of Order Three

Invertibility is one of the desirable properties of moving average processes. This study derives consequences of the invertibility condition on the parameters of a moving average process of order three. The study also establishes the intervals for the first three autocorrelation coefficients of the moving average process of order three for the purpose of distinguishing between the process and any other process (linear or nonlinear) with similar autocorrelation structure. For an invertible moving average process of order three, the intervals obtained are , -0.5ρ2ρ1<0.5.

Examination of the profitability of technical analysis based on moving average strategies in BRICS

In this paper,we investigated the profitability of technical analysis as applied to the stock markets of the BRICS member nations.In addition,we searched for evidence that technical analysis and fundamental analysis can complement each other in these markets.To implement this research,we created a comprehensive portfolio containing the assets traded in the markets of each BRICS member.We developed an automated trading system that simulated transactions in this portfolio using technical analysis techniques.Our assessment updated the findings of previous research by including more recent data and adding South Africa,the latest member included in BRICS.Our results showed that the returns obtained by the automated system,on average,exceeded the value invested.There were groups of assets from each country that performed well above the portfolio average,surpassing the returns obtained using a buy and hold strategy.The returns from the sample portfolio were very strong in Russia and India.We also found that technical analysis can help fundamental analysis identify the most dynamic companies in the stock market.

Probability distribution of wind power volatility based on the moving average method and improved nonparametric kernel density estimation

In the process of large-scale,grid-connected wind power operations,it is important to establish an accurate probability distribution model for wind farm fluctuations.In this study,a wind power fluctuation modeling method is proposed based on the method of moving average and adaptive nonparametric kernel density estimation(NPKDE)method.Firstly,the method of moving average is used to reduce the fluctuation of the sampling wind power component,and the probability characteristics of the modeling are then determined based on the NPKDE.Secondly,the model is improved adaptively,and is then solved by using constraint-order optimization.The simulation results show that this method has a better accuracy and applicability compared with the modeling method based on traditional parameter estimation,and solves the local adaptation problem of traditional NPKDE.

An autoregressive integrated moving average model for short-term prediction of hepatitis C virus seropositivity among male volunteer blood donors in Karachi,Pakistan

AIM： To identify the stochastic autoregressive integrated moving average （ARIMA） model for short term forecasting of hepatitis C virus （HCV） seropositivity among volunteer blood donors in Karachi, Pakistan.METHODS： Ninety-six months （1998-2005） data on HCV seropositive cases （1000-1 x month1） among male volunteer blood donors tested at four major blood banks in Karachi, Pakistan were subjected to ARIMA modeling. Subsequently, a fitted ARIMA model was used to forecast HCV seropositive donors for 91-96 mo to contrast with observed series of the same months. To assess the forecast accuracy, the mean absolute error rate （%） between the observed and predicted HCV seroprevalence was calculated. Finally, a fitted ARIMA model was used for short-term forecasts beyond the observed series.RESULTS： The goodness-of-fit test of the optimum ARIMA （2,1,7） model showed non-significant autocorrelations in the residuals of the model. The forecasts by ARIMA for 91-96 mo closely followed the pattern of observed series for the same months, with mean monthly absolute forecast errors （%） over 6 mo of 6.5%. The short-term forecasts beyond the observed series adequately captured the pattern in the data and showed increasing tendency of HCV seropositivity with a mean ± SD HCV seroprevalence （1000^-1× month^-1） of 24.3 ±1.4 over the forecast interval.CONCLUSION： To curtail HCV spread, public health authorities need to educate communities and health care providers about HCV transmission routes based on known HCV epidemiology in Pakistan and its neighboring countries. Future research may focus on factors associated with hyperendemic levels of HCV infection.

Multilevel Feature Moving Average Ratio Method for Fault Diagnosis of the Microgrid Inverter Switch

Multilevel feature moving average ratio method is proposed to realize an open-switch fault diagnosis for any switch of the microgrid inverter. The main steps of the proposed method include multilevel signal decomposition, coefficient reconstruction, absolute average ratio process and artificial neural network U+0028 ANN U+0029 classification. Specifically, multilevel signal decomposition is realized by using the means of multi resolution analysis to obtain the different frequency band coefficients of the three-phase current signal. The related coefficient reconstruction is executed to achieve signals decomposition in different levels. Furthermore, according to the obtained data, the absolute average ratio process is used to extract absolute moving average ratio of signal decomposition in different levels for the three-phase current. Finally, to intelligently classify the inverter switch fault and realize the adaptive ability, the ANN technology is applied. Compared to conventional fault diagnosis methods, the proposed method can accurately detect and locate the open-switch fault for any location of the microgrid inverter. Additionally, it need not set related threshold of algorithm and does not require normalization process, which is relatively easy to implement. The effectiveness of the proposed fault diagnosis method is demonstrated through detailed simulation results. © 2017 Chinese Association of Automation.