Runout prediction of potential landslides based on the multi-source data collaboration analysis on historical cases

Long runout landslides involve a massive amount of energy and can be extremely hazardous owing to their long movement distance,high mobility and strong destructive power.Numerical methods have been widely used to predict the landslide runout but a fundamental problem remained is how to determine the reliable numerical parameters.This study proposes a framework to predict the runout of potential landslides through multi-source data collaboration and numerical analysis of historical landslide events.Specifically,for the historical landslide cases,the landslide-induced seismic signal,geophysical surveys,and possible in-situ drone/phone videos(multi-source data collaboration)can validate the numerical results in terms of landslide dynamics and deposit features and help calibrate the numerical(rheological)parameters.Subsequently,the calibrated numerical parameters can be used to numerically predict the runout of potential landslides in the region with a similar geological setting to the recorded events.Application of the runout prediction approach to the 2020 Jiashanying landslide in Guizhou,China gives reasonable results in comparison to the field observations.The numerical parameters are determined from the multi-source data collaboration analysis of a historical case in the region(2019 Shuicheng landslide).The proposed framework for landslide runout prediction can be of great utility for landslide risk assessment and disaster reduction in mountainous regions worldwide.

Ground threat prediction-based path planning of unmanned autonomous helicopter using hybrid enhanced artificial bee colony algorithm

Unmanned autonomous helicopter(UAH)path planning problem is an important component of the UAH mission planning system.Aiming to reduce the influence of non-complete ground threat information on UAH path planning,a ground threat prediction-based path planning method is proposed based on artificial bee colony(ABC)algorithm by collaborative thinking strategy.Firstly,a dynamic threat distribution probability model is developed based on the characteristics of typical ground threats.The dynamic no-fly zone of the UAH is simulated and established by calculating the distribution probability of ground threats in real time.Then,a dynamic path planning method for UAH is designed in complex environment based on the real-time prediction of ground threats.By adding the collision warning mechanism to the path planning model,the flight path could be dynamically adjusted according to changing no-fly zones.Furthermore,a hybrid enhanced ABC algorithm is proposed based on collaborative thinking strategy.The proposed algorithm applies the leader-member thinking mechanism to guide the direction of population evolution,and reduces the negative impact of local optimal solutions caused by collaborative learning update strategy,which makes the optimization performance of ABC algorithm more controllable and efficient.Finally,simulation results verify the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed ground threat prediction path planning method.

Connectivity-maintaining Consensus of Multi-agent Systems With Communication Management Based on Predictive Control Strategy

This paper studies the connectivity-maintaining consensus of multi-agent systems.Considering the impact of the sensing ranges of agents for connectivity and communication energy consumption,a novel communication management strategy is proposed for multi-agent systems so that the connectivity of the system can be maintained and the communication energy can be saved.In this paper,communication management means a strategy about how the sensing ranges of agents are adjusted in the process of reaching consensus.The proposed communication management in this paper is not coupled with controller but only imposes a constraint for controller,so there is more freedom to develop an appropriate control strategy for achieving consensus.For the multi-agent systems with this novel communication management,a predictive control based strategy is developed for achieving consensus.Simulation results indicate the effectiveness and advantages of our scheme.

Multi-Agent System for Real Time Planning Using Collaborative Agents

Autonomous agents are an important area of research in the sense that they are proactive, and include: goal-directed and communication capabilities. Furthermore each goals of the agent are constantly changing in a dynamic environment. Part of the challenge is to automate the process corresponding to each agent in order that they find their own objectives. Agents do not have to work individually, but can work with others and develop a coordinated group of actions. These agents are highly appreciated, when real time problems are involved, meaning that an agent must be able to react within a specific time interval, considering external events. Our work focuses on the design of a multi-agent architecture consisting of autonomous agents capable of acting through a goal-directed with: a) constraints, b) real-time, and c) with incomplete knowledge of the environment. This paper shows a model of collaborative agents architecture that share a common knowledge source, allowing knowledge of the environment;where we analyze it and its changes, choosing the most promising way for achieving the goals of the agent, in order to keep the whole system working, even if a fault occurs.

Collaborative prediction for bus arrival time based on CPS

To improve the accuracy of real-time public transport information release system, a collaborative prediction model was proposed based on cyber-physical systems architecture. In the model, the total bus travel time was divided into three parts: running time, dwell time and intersection delay time, and the data were divided into three categories of historical data, static data and real-time data. The bus arrival time was obtained by fusion computing the real-time data in perception layer together with historical data and static data in collaborative layer. The validity of the collaborative model was verified by the data of a typical urban bus line in Shanghai, and 1538 sets of data were collected and analyzed from three different perspectives. By comparing the experimental results with the actual results, it is shown that the experimental results are with higher prediction accuracy, and the collaborative prediction model adopted is able to meet the demand for bus arrival prediction.

A Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning-Based Collaborative Jamming System: Algorithm Design and Software-Defined Radio Implementation

In multi-agent confrontation scenarios, a jammer is constrained by the single limited performance and inefficiency of practical application. To cope with these issues, this paper aims to investigate the multi-agent jamming problem in a multi-user scenario, where the coordination between the jammers is considered. Firstly, a multi-agent Markov decision process (MDP) framework is used to model and analyze the multi-agent jamming problem. Secondly, a collaborative multi-agent jamming algorithm (CMJA) based on reinforcement learning is proposed. Finally, an actual intelligent jamming system is designed and built based on software-defined radio (SDR) platform for simulation and platform verification. The simulation and platform verification results show that the proposed CMJA algorithm outperforms the independent Q-learning method and provides a better jamming effect.

Context-Aware Collaborative Filtering Framework for Rating Prediction Based on Novel Similarity Estimation

Recommender systems are rapidly transforming the digital world into intelligent information hubs.The valuable context information associated with the users’prior transactions has played a vital role in determining the user preferences for items or rating prediction.It has been a hot research topic in collaborative filtering-based recommender systems for the last two decades.This paper presents a novel Context Based Rating Prediction(CBRP)model with a unique similarity scoring estimation method.The proposed algorithm computes a context score for each candidate user to construct a similarity pool for the given subject user-item pair and intuitively choose the highly influential users to forecast the item ratings.The context scoring strategy has an inherent capability to incorporate multiple conditional factors to filter down the most relevant recommendations.Compared with traditional similarity estimation methods,CBRP makes it possible for the full use of neighboring collaborators’choice on various conditions.We conduct experiments on three publicly available datasets to evaluate our proposed method with random user-item pairs and got considerable improvement in prediction accuracy over the standard evaluation measures.Also,we evaluate prediction accuracy for every user-item pair in the system and the results show that our proposed framework has outperformed existing methods.

Resilience Against Replay Attacks:A Distributed Model Predictive Control Scheme for Networked Multi-Agent Systems

In this paper,a resilient distributed control scheme against replay attacks for multi-agent networked systems subject to input and state constraints is proposed.The methodological starting point relies on a smart use of predictive arguments with a twofold aim:1)Promptly detect malicious agent behaviors affecting normal system operations;2)Apply specific control actions,based on predictive ideas,for mitigating as much as possible undesirable domino effects resulting from adversary operations.Specifically,the multi-agent system is topologically described by a leader-follower digraph characterized by a unique leader and set-theoretic receding horizon control ideas are exploited to develop a distributed algorithm capable to instantaneously recognize the attacked agent.Finally,numerical simulations are carried out to show benefits and effectiveness of the proposed approach.

The Dynamic Prediction Model of Number of Participants in Software Crowd Sourcing Collaboration Development Project

Many online platforms providing crowd with opportunities to participate in software development projects have been existed for a while. Meanwhile, many enterprises are using crowd source to collaboratively develop their software via these platforms in recent years. However, some software development projects in these platforms hardly attract users to join. Therefore, these project owners need a way to effectively predict the number of participants in their projects and accordingly well plan their software and project specifications, such as the program language and the size of the documentation, in order to attract more individuals to participant in the projects. Compared with the past prediction models, our proposed model can dynamically add the factors, such as number of participants in the initial stage of the project, within the project life cycle and make the adjustment to the prediction model. The proposed model was also verified by using cross validation method. The results show that: 1) The models with the factor “the number of user participation” is more accurate than the model without it. 2) The factors of crowd dimension are more influential on the prediction accuracy than those of software project and owner dimensions. It is suggested that the project owners not only just consider those factors of the software project dimension in the initial stage of the project life cycle but also those factors of crowd and interaction dimensions in the late stage to attract more participants in their projects.

Consensus of Multi-Agent Systems with Input Constraints Based on Distributed Predictive Control Scheme

Consensus control of multi-agent systems has attracted compelling attentions from various scientific communities for its promising applications.This paper presents a discrete-time consensus protocol for a class of multi-agent systems with switching topologies and input constraints based on distributed predictive control scheme.The consensus protocol is not only distributed but also depends on the errors of states between agent and its neighbors.We focus mainly on dealing with the input constraints and a distributed model predictive control scheme is developed to achieve stable consensus under the condition that both velocity and acceleration constraints are included simultaneously.The acceleration constraint is regarded as the changing rate of velocity based on some reasonable assumptions so as to simplify the analysis.Theoretical analysis shows that the constrained system steered by the proposed protocol achieves consensus asymptotically if the switching interaction graphs always have a spanning tree.Numerical examples are also provided to illustrate the validity of the algorithm.

A Cognitive Model for Multi-Agent Collaboration

In multi-agent system, agents work together for solving complex tasks and reaching common goals. In this paper, we propose a cognitive model for multi-agent collaboration. Based on the cognitive model, an agent architecture will also be presented. This agent has BDI, awareness and policy driven mechanism concurrently. These approaches are integrated in one agent that will make multi-agent collaboration more practical in the real world.

QoE Assessment of Group Synchronization Control Scheme with Prediction in Work Using Haptic Media

This paper proposes a group synchronization control scheme with prediction in work using haptic media. The scheme adjusts the output timing among multiple terminals and keeps the interactivity high. It outputs position information by predicting the future position later than the position included in the last-received information by a fixed amount of time. It also advances the output time of position information at each local terminal by the same amount of time. We deal with two different types of work using haptic media so as to demonstrate the effectiveness of the scheme. We assess the output quality of haptic media for the two types of work subjectively and objectively by Quality of Experience (QoE) assessment. We further clarify the relationship between subjective and objective assessment results.

A Probabilistic Rating Prediction and Explanation Inference Model for Recommender Systems

Collaborative Filtering(CF) is a leading approach to build recommender systems which has gained considerable development and popularity. A predominant approach to CF is rating prediction recommender algorithm, aiming to predict a user's rating for those items which were not rated yet by the user. However, with the increasing number of items and users, thedata is sparse.It is difficult to detectlatent closely relation among the items or users for predicting the user behaviors. In this paper,we enhance the rating prediction approach leading to substantial improvement of prediction accuracy by categorizing according to the genres of movies. Then the probabilities that users are interested in the genres are computed to integrate the prediction of each genre cluster. A novel probabilistic approach based on the sentiment analysis of the user reviews is also proposed to give intuitional explanations of why an item is recommended.To test the novel recommendation approach, a new corpus of user reviews on movies obtained from the Internet Movies Database(IMDB) has been generated. Experimental results show that the proposed framework is effective and achieves a better prediction performance.

Demand-aware mobile bike-sharing service using collaborative computing and information fusion in 5G IoT environment

Mobile bike-sharing services have been prevalently used in many cities as an important urban commuting service and a promising way to build smart cities,especially in the new era of 5G and Internet-of-Things(IoT)environments.A mobile bike-sharing service makes commuting convenient for people and imparts new vitality to urban transportation systems.In the real world,the problems of no docks or no bikes at bike-sharing stations often arise because of several inevitable reasons such as the uncertainty of bike usage.In addition to pure manual rebalancing,in several works,attempts were made to predict the demand for bikes.In this paper,we devised a bike-sharing service with highly accurate demand prediction using collaborative computing and information fusion.We combined the information of bike demands at different time periods and the locations between stations and proposed a dynamical clustering algorithm for station clustering.We carefully analyzed and discovered the group of features that impact the demand of bikes,from historical bike-sharing records and 5G IoT environment data.We combined the discovered information and proposed an XGBoost-based regression model to predict the rental and return demand.We performed sufficient experiments on two real-world datasets.The results confirm that compared to some existing methods,our method produces superior prediction results and performance and improves the availability of bike-sharing service in 5G IoT environments.

Deep reinforcement learning based multi-level dynamic reconfiguration for urban distribution network:a cloud-edge collaboration architecture

With the construction of the power Internet of Things(IoT),communication between smart devices in urban distribution networks has been gradually moving towards high speed,high compatibility,and low latency,which provides reliable support for reconfiguration optimization in urban distribution networks.Thus,this study proposed a deep reinforcement learning based multi-level dynamic reconfiguration method for urban distribution networks in a cloud-edge collaboration architecture to obtain a real-time optimal multi-level dynamic reconfiguration solution.First,the multi-level dynamic reconfiguration method was discussed,which included feeder-,transformer-,and substation-levels.Subsequently,the multi-agent system was combined with the cloud-edge collaboration architecture to build a deep reinforcement learning model for multi-level dynamic reconfiguration in an urban distribution network.The cloud-edge collaboration architecture can effectively support the multi-agent system to conduct“centralized training and decentralized execution”operation modes and improve the learning efficiency of the model.Thereafter,for a multi-agent system,this study adopted a combination of offline and online learning to endow the model with the ability to realize automatic optimization and updation of the strategy.In the offline learning phase,a Q-learning-based multi-agent conservative Q-learning(MACQL)algorithm was proposed to stabilize the learning results and reduce the risk of the next online learning phase.In the online learning phase,a multi-agent deep deterministic policy gradient(MADDPG)algorithm based on policy gradients was proposed to explore the action space and update the experience pool.Finally,the effectiveness of the proposed method was verified through a simulation analysis of a real-world 445-node system.

基于协同降噪与IGWO-SVR的高填方路基沉降预测

高填方路基沉降影响山岭重丘区重载铁路运营安全。为克服实测沉降数据掺杂随机噪声、现有预测模型适用性差的不足,提出基于协同降噪算法与IGWO-SVR模型的沉降预测方法。运用互补集合经验模态分解法(CEEMD)与小波包变换法(WPT)对含噪沉降数据进行协同降噪处理;提出基于佳点集初始化均布、非线性收敛控制与自身历史最优记忆位置更新的改进灰狼优化(IGWO)算法,并结合支持向量回归模型(SVR),构建IGWO-SVR沉降预测模型。进一步地,利用大准铁路工点及现有文献研究成果,验证IGWO-SVR模型的优越性。结果表明:协同降噪法可有效消除原数据中噪声项的干扰波动;在小样本数据集上,IGWO-SVR模型较传统沉降预测模型与现有文献所述预测模型,具有更高的预测精度与稳定性。研究成果为重载铁路高填方路基沉降预测提供了新途径。

占空比传输机制下基于协同预测的时变不确定系统递推滤波

以工业互联网为背景,研究占空比传输机制下一类时变不确定系统的滤波问题,结合协同预测方法设计了新颖的递推滤波算法,解决了占空比传输机制下滤波性能降低的问题。首先给出描述占空比传输机制的数学模型,然后提出结合协同预测方法的递推滤波方案,设计基于占空比机制的递推滤波算法,推导了滤波误差协方差矩阵的一个上界,随后分析这个上界的有界性,实现了在稀疏数据情形下提高滤波性能的目的。仿真结果验证了所提算法的高效性和有效性。

考虑风电出力不确定性的多源联合系统双层优化调度

针对含风-火-储的多源联合系统,风电出力具有不确定性的特点,风机在特定时间段内的预测功率与实际功率之间存在误差,当风机实际出力无法满足调度计划中安排的功率时会导致系统经济效益大幅下降。为此,文中提出了考虑风电预测误差和需求侧响应的双层优化策略,上层模型以风电、火电和可平移负荷总运行成本最少为目标,采用改进粒子群算法(Improved Particle Swarm Algorithm, IPSO)制定火电和可平移负荷的最优调度策略,然后通过Gibbs法对风机最大出力预测误差的概率密度函数进行抽样获取一定量的样本,得到各样本上层电源的功率缺额;下层模型以储能和可中断负荷总运行成本最少为目标,采用线性规划方法对冲上层电源功率缺额,进而制定下层模型电源调度策略。在大量抽样样本背景下,通过对比各样本总成本函数值的期望和方差验证了所提双层优化策略的经济性和有效性。

基于图卷积网络的发明人跨领域合作伙伴识别方法

[研究目的]科学技术与社会的发展促进了不同领域理论、方法和技术的交叉融合,跨领域合作愈发成为合作创新的主流形式,如何帮助发明人定位并准确识别跨领域合作伙伴成为亟待解决的问题。[研究方法]提出一种基于图卷积网络的发明人跨领域合作伙伴识别方法,从多维特征视角下基于发明人专利信息中的合作关系特征、摘要文本特征、领域信息特征使用图卷积网络识别和预测发明人潜在合作伙伴,构建同领域指数和跨领域指数准确识别发明人跨领域合作伙伴。[研究结论]通过对比实验,证明了借助图卷积网络对合作关系特征、摘要文本特征、领域信息特征三维特征联用在进行伙伴识别时能够有效提升模型准确性。借助识别跨领域合作伙伴,有助于促进不同领域之间的交叉合作和知识转移,创造出更具创新性和前瞻性的成果。

融合多主体需求频率特征的复杂产品全生命周期价值链协同设计

高周转率和短保质期的复杂产品具有较高订单频率的特征。传统的价值链设计大多基于复杂产品订单数据的时序和销量对销售周期的影响,忽略了其订单频率中蕴含的细节信息,因而难以准确捕捉多主体间快速变化的供需关系。为了解决这一问题,提出了一种融合多主体需求频率特征的复杂产品全生命周期价值链协同设计方法。首先,采用门控卷积的频率序列提取方法识别多主体需求;其次,将基于频率分段的Transformer时序预测模型融合于订单频率信息,根据改进的时序-频率多头自注意力(seq-fremulti-head attention)结构建立全生命周期价值链,不同分段的时序和频率特征对应不同的注意力头,以实现多段时序和频率特征的融合;最后,将新型价值链协同设计方法应用于某复杂产品多主体需求预测问题,进行实验验证。研究表明,所提出的融合需求频率特征的价值链协同设计方法预测准确度较高,具有很好的应用前景。