Data Fusion about Serviceability Reliability Prediction for the Long-Span Bridge Girder Based on MBDLM and Gaussian Copula Technique

This article presented a new data fusion approach for reasonably predicting dynamic serviceability reliability of the long-span bridge girder.Firstly,multivariate Bayesian dynamic linear model(MBDLM)considering dynamic correlation among the multiple variables is provided to predict dynamic extreme deflections;secondly,with the proposed MBDLM,the dynamic correlation coefficients between any two performance functions can be predicted;finally,based on MBDLM and Gaussian copula technique,a new data fusion method is given to predict the serviceability reliability of the long-span bridge girder,and the monitoring extreme deflection data from an actual bridge is provided to illustrated the feasibility and application of the proposed method.

考虑适用性的大跨桥梁主梁动态可靠性融合预测

为合理预测考虑适用性的大跨桥梁主梁动态可靠性,利用主梁控制监测点的动态极值挠度信息,建立了多维Gaussian Copula技术、多变量贝叶斯动态线性模型(MBDLM)以及一次二阶矩(FOSM)方法相融合地考虑控制点变形失效非线性相关的大跨桥梁主梁体系动态可靠性预测方法。采用某大跨桥梁主梁3个控制监测点的动态监测极值挠度数据进行验证分析,研究表明:考虑适用性的控制监测点变形失效非线性相关的主梁动态可靠性预测值较不考虑控制监测点变形失效非线性相关性所得结果大,说明不考虑失效动态非线性相关性所得结果偏保守。