The Application of LM-BP Neural Network in the Prediction of Total Output Value of Agriculture

Gross agricultural product is an important indication to measure the agricultural development level of a region. It would be affected by many factors,having the characteristics of non- linearity. For this reason,LM- BP neural network was put forward as the model and method for predicting gross agricultural product. Taking the indications of the sown area of crop,the output of grain,sugarcane,cassava,tea,meat,aquatic products,turpentine and camellia seed,etc. as inputs,during 2000 to 2012 in Guangxi,the gross agricultural product data from the analysis of simulation experiment show that the prediction of LM- BP neural network fits well with actual results.

Analysis of the Dynamic Relationship among Financial Fund for Agriculture, Agricultural Output Value and Farmers' income

By using the methods of co-integration, impulse response function and variance decomposition, I conduct the empirical research on the dynamic relationship among China's financial fund for agriculture, agricultural output value, and farmers' income from the year 1978 to the year 2009. The results indicate that the government's financial fund for agriculture plays the significant role in promoting agricultural output value and farmers' income in the long run, but this role of promoting is not prominent in the short run; in the mean time, agricultural output value plays insignificant role in promoting farmers' income and the government's financial fund for agriculture; farmers' income plays the significant role in promoting agricultural output value and the government's financial fund for agriculture.

Analysis of Input and Output of China's Agriculture Based on Canonical Correlation

I select effective irrigated area, consumption of agricultural chemical fertilizer, electricity consumed in rural areas, and total power of agricultural machinery as input variables of China's agriculture; I select grain, bean, tobacco, oil-bearing crop and fruit as output variables of China's agriculture. By using the data of China Statistical Yearbook in 2010, based on the analysis method of canonical correlation, I conduct research on the input and output of China's agriculture. The results show that consumption of chemical fertilizer has the biggest impact on the agricultural output of China, followed by the input of total power of agricultural machinery; the canonical variable of agricultural output of China is mainly impacted by grain, oil-bearing crop and fruit; in terms of the selected variables, the output increase of grain, oil-bearing crop and fruit in China arises from the input increase of agricultural chemical fertilizer and machinery, and there is high-degree correlation between the two. According to the conclusions, the policy suggestions are put forward as follows: gradually decrease consumption of chemical fertilizer; increase the use of modern agricultural machinery; increase agricultural irrigation input.

Agricultural Input and Output in Jiangsu Province with Case Analysis

[Objective] The aim was to explore interrelationship between agricultural input and output in Jiangsu and the influence degrees of input factors on agricultur-al output. [Method] Quantitative analysis and evaluation were made on agricultural input and output in Jiangsu during 1990-2012 as per factor analysis and regression analysis. [Result] The result of factor analysis showed that since the 1990s, the comprehensive efficiency of agricultural input/output in Jiangsu was growing and in-put/output of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, crop farming, and of food production were extracted, whose scores reflect the changes of input/output ef-ficiencies in terms of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, fishery, crop farming and food production in the two decades. The results of regression analysis indicated that the effects of the three indices on agricultural output tended to be volatile and the influence degrees were concluded also by regression parameters. [Conclusion] The research provides theoretical references for agricultural input/output structure in Jiangsu Province.

Productivity Growth in China's Agriculture During 1985-2010

This paper made an empirical analysis of China＇s agricultural growth path and influential factors using the province-level panel data of agricultural inputs and outputs during 1985-2010.The findings indicate that the increase in agricultural inputs and TFP contributed 40.6 and 55.2% to the agricultural output growth,respectively;China＇s agriculture had jumped out of the pattern which output growth was mainly driven by increasing input.Of the total inputs,chemical fertilizer had the most important contribution to the output growth,followed by mechanical inputs.The contribution of land and labor was negative.China＇s agricultural output growth belonged to the type of induced technology innovation.China＇s agricultural TFP growth had characteristics of fluctuations over time and unbalanced between regions,but the gap between the eastern,the middle,and the western regions has been narrowed.

Multi-dimensional blind separation method for STBC systems

Intercepted signal blind separation is a research topic with high importance for both military and civilian communication systems. A blind separation method for space-time block code （STBC） systems is proposed by using the ordinary independent component analysis （ICA）. This method cannot work when specific complex modulations are employed since the assumption of mutual independence cannot be satisfied. The analysis shows that source signals, which are group-wise independent and use multi-dimensional ICA （MICA） instead of ordinary ICA, can be applied in this case. Utilizing the block-diagonal structure of the cumulant matrices, the JADE algorithm is generalized to the multidimensional case to separate the received data into mutually independent groups. Compared with ordinary ICA algorithms, the proposed method does not introduce additional ambiguities. Simulations show that the proposed method overcomes the drawback and achieves a better performance without utilizing coding information than channel estimation based algorithms.

Research on Correlation between Farmer's Agricultural Income and Agricultural Output in China Based on Dynamic Analysis

In this paper,we study the decision mechanism of prices of agricultural products and output of agricultural products,and establish simultaneous equation model between farmers' agricultural income and the total output of agricultural products,to analyse the dynamic relationship between the two.The results show that farmers' agricultural income affects output of agricultural products via price,and is also affected by output of agricultural products;the output of agricultural products is determined by the prices of agricultural products in the previous period,and if the prices of agricultural products in the previous period rise,then the total output of agricultural products in the current period increases;the prices of agricultural products are affected by output of agricultural products and urban and rural residents' income,the urban residents' income having greater impact;the supply elasticity of agricultural products is greater than demand elasticity,therefore,the balance between price and output can not regress after being breached,needing the government to conduct macro-control.

Contribution of Agricultural Input to Output in Hohhot City

Based on the research data from the economics and management platform of Inner Mongolia Agricultural University,we analyze the changes in the input of agricultural production factors,such as farmland,labor and capital in Hohhot City. Based on the principle of econometrics,we select the agricultural production input-output data in Hohhot City during the period 1992-2010,and establish the econometric model using Cobb-Douglas production factor,to estimate the rate of contribution of agricultural input to the growth of agricultural output value,and study the quantitative relations between agricultural input and agricultural output value. The results show that in Hohhot City,the contribution of chemical fertilizer input to the growth of agricultural output value is the greatest; the contribution of mechanical power to agricultural output value is still not brought into full play; the contribution of remaining production inputs ( including technical progress) accounts for 35. 69% . In the future,Hohhot City should pay more attention to the technical input to develop agriculture.

An Analysis of the Influence of Chinese Agriculture on National Economy and the Macroeconomic Effects

As a basic industry,agriculture has a far-reaching impact on national economy. Based on input-output tables of China in 2005 and2010,this paper gives a deep insight into the relationship between agriculture and national economy and its macroeconomic effects by the methods of input-output analysis,industrial correlation and macroeconomic effect analysis. The results show that the agricultural development is highly dependent on the national economy,but makes low contribution; agriculture contributes to promoting employment and improving the structure of national income distribution; despite the government's tax incentive,the agricultural equipments are updated slowly,and the corporate profits are at low level; agricultural export effect is far below the average industry level,but the import effect increases over the years,and final products are often used for domestic consumption. Finally,we set forth recommendations for improving the development of agriculture and national economy.

Bank Credit and Agricultural Output in Bangladesh: An Econometric Analysis

In this study,the authors tried to identify the relationship between bank credit and agricultural output in Bangladesh.Simultaneously impact assessment of bank credit on agricultural output is also investigated.Different econometric techniques are used to determine the nature of the relationship between bank credit and agricultural output and the impact of bank credit.A total of 40 years(1981-2020)of annual time series data were collected from the Annual Reports of the Bangladesh Bank and World Bank’s world development indicators.Stationarity and cointegration tests were performed initially and then analyzed with Vector Error Correction Model,confirming a long-run relationship between bank credit and agricultural output.Additionally,univariate and multivariate OLS models are performed to identify the magnitude of bank credit’s impact on agricultural output.Both models revealed that bank credit positively and significantly affects agricultural production in Bangladesh.Based on these findings,the authors recommend additional fund allocation to the agricultural production system by the banks in Bangladesh.

Strategic Measures for Implementing 300 Demonstration Projects to Lead the Construction of Modern Agricultural Industrial Clusters with Output of 100 Billion Yuan

To carefully implement the rural revitalization strategy,further promote the structural reform of the agricultural supply front,implement the "155 Development Strategy",speed up the cultivation of the modern agricultural industrial clusters with output of 100 billion yuan,and constantly consolidate the industrial foundation of the " Second City in Chengdu-Chongqing Line",the Municipal Party Committee and the Municipal Government of Nanchong City decided to implement the " 300 Demonstration Projects" of modern agriculture. It firmly grasps the " bull nose"( key part) of the project,energetically implements the construction of 100 modern circular agricultural demonstration parks,100 agricultural leading enterprises with output value of 100 billion yuan,and 100 agricultural new business model demonstration projects( hereinafter referred to as 300 Demonstration Projects),to realize the goal of the output value of the modern agriculture industrial clusters of Nanchong City exceeds 100 billion yuan in 2020.

Regional Agricultural Input-Output Model and Countermeasure for Production and Income Increase of Farmers in Southern Xinjiang,China

Agricultural input and output status in southern Xinjiang,China is introduced,such as lack of agricultural input,low level of agricultural modernization,excessive fertilizer use,serious damage of environment,shortage of water resources,tremendous pressure on ecological balance,insignificant economic and social benefits of agricultural production in southern Xinjiang,agriculture remaining a weak industry,agricultural economy as the economic subject of southern Xinjiang,and backward economic development of southern Xinjiang.Taking the Aksu area as an example,according to the input and output data in the years 2002-2007,input-output model about regional agriculture of the southern Xinjiang is established by principal component analysis.DPS software is used in the process of solving the model.Then,Eviews software is adopted to revise and test the model in order to analyze and evaluate the economic significance of the results obtained,and to make additional explanations of the relevant model.Since the agricultural economic output is seriously restricted in southern Xinjiang at present,the following countermeasures are put forward,such as adjusting the structure of agricultural land,improving the utilization ratio of land,increasing agricultural input,realizing agricultural modernization,rationally utilizing water resources,maintaining eco-environmental balance,enhancing the awareness of agricultural insurance,minimizing the risk and loss,taking the road of industrialization of characteristic agricultural products,and realizing the transfer of surplus labor force.

河北省农业科技试验区发展思考与探讨

农业科技试验区以注重科技落地和解决生产难题为核心,发挥引领示范作用,促进农业经济持续增长。在梳理河北省农业科技试验区发展历程和现状基础上,研究其对农业经济发展的推动作用。但近年来河北省农业科技试验区发展缓慢且地位下降,分析其原因,主要存在对试验区的认识有偏差、试验区工作力度减弱和试验区立项难3种问题。针对问题提出恢复农业科技试验区项目支持、注重农业科技试验区科技人才队伍培养和加强试验区科技工作指导的对策建议。

基于DEA模型的安康市农业投入产出效率评价

为了解安康市现代农业发展效率状况,选取2009—2020年安康市污染治理投资总额、农业固定资产投资额、耕地面积和乡村劳动力资源总数4个农业投入指标,以及农业总产值和农业人均生产值2个农业产出指标,采用数据包络分析(data envelopment analysis,DEA)模型中的BCC模型进行效率分析。结果表明,安康市农业投入产出效率只有2020年的DEA模型是有效的,但从2009年开始,综合效率总体呈现上升趋势;从投入冗余率与产出不足率可以看出,安康市农业总产值基本不存在产出不足的现象,除2020年外,其余各年份在污染治理投资总额、农业固定资产投资额、耕地面积和乡村劳动力资源总数的投入在不同程度都存在冗余,投入结构不合理造成DEA模型无效。

智慧农业发展水平测度及驱动力比较——基于产业融合的视角

基于国际与国内区域投入产出表,从产业融合视角对智慧农业发展水平进行度量,并开展国际、国内区域的比较。结果显示:中国智慧农业的发展与发达国家相比存在较大差距,机械化及数字化相关产业对农业的发展的驱动效果偏低;我国智慧农业发展区域异质性明显,山西等地科研服务类产业驱动力偏低,而内蒙古等地则数字化驱动力不足。应大力提升农业数字化发展水平、提升农业从业人员基本素质、加速突破核心关键性技术,制定具有区域特征的发展策略。

生物多样性视角下动物授粉损失与信贷风险敞口的测算

生物多样性已经引起全球广泛重视。动物授粉是大自然提供的生态系统服务之一,也是生物多样性的重要内容。授粉动物的减少,会导致粮食作物产量的减少,从而引发经济金融等各种风险。国内外就动物授粉服务价值与动物授粉损失对农业产出和经济总量的影响、金融机构面临的由动物授粉损失所导致的风险等进行了定量研究,本文对最新成果进行了梳理,并借鉴相关做法,利用湖南张家界地区金融机构数据对动物授粉损失的信贷风险敞口进行了测算。在此基础上提出了开展昆虫授粉对我国各类重要农作物生物学和生态学效应试验研究、对缓解动物授粉损失的不同措施开展收益成本测算、开展动物授粉损失风险压力测试等建议。

农业绿色发展效率及时空格局演变研究——基于黄河流域九省(区)数据

深入研判黄河流域农业绿色发展效率地区差异及演变趋势,对推动黄河流域生态保护和农业高质量发展具有重要意义。基于2011-2022年黄河流域九省(区)数据,采用非期望产出SBM模型、Dagum基尼系数、核密度估计及变异系数分析方法,测算黄河流域九省(区)农业绿色发展效率,分析时空格局演变。结果表明:黄河流域农业绿色发展效率整体上呈波动上升态势,效率值从2011年的0.38上升至2022年的0.92;黄河流域上中下游区域发展存在差异,但发展效率差距整体呈下降趋势,总体基尼系数由2011年的0.29下降到2022年的0.13,其中地区间差异是造成整体差距大的主要原因。由此,提出健全农业绿色发展制度体系、深化黄河流域省际农业合作、强化农业绿色发展技术支撑等对策建议。

湖北省县域粮劳变化耦合模式与乡村发展类型

利用湖北省2003—2017年81个县域的粮食产量和农业劳动力数据,运用粮劳弹性系数模型方法,分析了湖北省粮劳时空变化特征及对应耦合模式。结果表明,2003—2017年湖北省粮食生产整体呈现稳中有增态势,呈“中高周低”“中增周减”空间特征,高产区集中在鄂西北中部与江汉平原南部;农业劳动力总量持续减少,呈“东多西少”“东增西减”空间特征,密集区集中在江汉平原东部和鄂东北丘陵西部。2003—2017年湖北省最典型的粮劳耦合变化模式为粮增劳减型(60.49%),其次为粮劳同减型(23.46%)和粮劳同增型(11.11%),粮减劳增型占比最低(4.94%)。受地理条件和农业政策的影响,湖北省乡村发展类型呈现多样化并存的格局:中部多分布外延扩张型和农业现代化型县域,东部和西部多分布产业转移型和种养一体化型县域;2010年前后两时段县域乡村发展类型转换较为复杂,维持不变相对较少。

信息技术对农业产出的影响效应——以北京设施农业为例

我国农业正处于现代化转型的关键时期,信息技术已成为引领农业高质量发展的先导力量。研究通过分析信息技术对农业产出的影响效应,明确信息技术在农业中的实际应用效果。立足乡镇层面,基于2022年北京乡镇设施农业信息技术应用抽样调查数据,采用OLS、QR与2SLS法,分析了信息技术对乡镇农业产出的影响效应。结果表明:就整体而言,农业信息技术与农业产出之间存在显著正相关关系,每公顷信息技术应用增加1%,乡镇每公顷设施农业产出平均增加3.56%,但农业信息技术的增产效应仅在高农业产出乡镇中显著、弹性系数为5.03%,在低农业产出乡镇中不显著。且农业信息技术在促进乡镇农业增产中存在资源禀赋差异,相较于劳动力或物质资本投入少的乡镇,劳动力或物质资本投入多的乡镇农业信息技术的增产效应更为明显,弹性系数分别为4.91%、4.53%。

生物炭肥料主要养分元素含量及其产率的研究

为了探讨生物炭肥料的科学制备方法,筛选出适宜的生物炭肥料原料,收集了河南省多种果枝、粮经作物与蔬菜秸秆作为试验材料,对这些生物质原料的热解温度、原料与肥料营养元素含量、肥料产率进行了分析。结果表明:有7种果枝和作物蔬菜秸秆适合用于制作生物炭肥料,其中以果枝的含碳量较高,粮经作物和蔬菜秸秆的含碳量较低,果枝和秸秆中全氮、全磷、全钾含量的变化规律不明显。果枝和秸秆的热解温度会影响生物炭肥料的养分含量,生物炭肥料的产出率是确定热解温度的主要因素,热解温度过低则原料分解不充分,过高则生物炭肥料的产量低。生物炭肥料质量主成分分析结果表明,茄子秆、花生秆、葡萄枝比较适合作为制作生物炭肥料的原料,生物炭肥料生产技术的研发为农业废弃物资源化利用提供了技术支撑。