A Situational Awareness Method for Initial Insulation Fault of Distribution Network Based on Multi-Feature Index Comprehensive Evaluation

Most ground faults in distribution network are caused by insulation deterioration of power equipment.It is difficult to find the insulation deterioration of the distribution network in time,and the development trend of the initial insulation fault is unknown,which brings difficulties to the distribution inspection.In order to solve the above problems,a situational awareness method of the initial insulation fault of the distribution network based on a multi-feature index comprehensive evaluation is proposed.Firstly,the insulation situation evaluation index is selected by analyzing the insulation fault mechanism of the distribution network,and the relational database of the distribution network is designed based on the data and numerical characteristics of the existing distribution management system.Secondly,considering all kinds of fault factors of the distribution network and the influence of the power supply region,the evaluation method of the initial insulation fault situation of the distribution network is proposed,and the development situation of the distribution network insulation fault is classified according to the evaluation method.Then,principal component analysis was used to reduce the dimension of the training samples and test samples of the distribution network data,and the support vector machine(SVM)was trained.The optimal parameter combination of the SVM model was found by the grid search method,and a multi-class SVM model based on 1-v-1 method was constructed.Finally,the trained multi-class SVM was used to predict 6 kinds of situation level prediction samples.The results of simulation examples show that the average prediction accuracy of 6 situation levels is above 95%,and the perception accuracy of 4 situation levels is above 96%.In addition,the insulation maintenance decision scheme under different situation levels is able to be given when no fault occurs or the insulation fault is in the early stage,which can meet the needs of power distribution and inspection for accurately sensing the insulation fault situation.The correctness and effectiveness of this method are verified.

Stress distribution in roadbeds of slab tracks with longitudinal discontinuities

Stress concentration occurs in the foundations of railway tracks where discontinuous components are located.The exacerbated stress under the expansion joints in slab tracks may trigger foundation failures such as mud pumping.Although the higher stress due to the discontinuities of track structures has been discussed in past studies,few focused on the stress response of roadbeds in slab tracks and quantitatively characterized the stress pattern.In this paper,we performed a dynamic finite element analysis of a track-formation system,incorporating expansion joints as primary longitudinal discontinuities.The configurations of CRTS Ⅲ slab tracks and the contact conditions between concrete layers were considered.Numerical results show that longitudinal influencing length of induced stress on roadbed under wheel load relates to the contact conditions between concrete layers,increasing nonlinearly at a larger coefficient of friction.Given a measured coefficient of friction of 0.7,the calculated longitudinal influencing length(9.0 m) matches with field data.The longitudinal influencing length is not affected with the increasing velocity.As stress concentration arises with expansion joints,the worstcase scenario emerges when double-axle loads are exerted immediately above the expansion joints between concrete bases.A stress concentration factor Cvon the roadbed is proposed;it increases with the increasing velocity,changing from 1.33 to 1.52 at velocities between 5 and 400 km/h.The stress distribution on roadbeds transforms from a trapezoid pattern at continuous sections to a triangle pattern at points with longitudinal discontinuities.An explicit expression is finally proposed for the stress pattern on roadbed under expansion joints.Although structural discontinuities induce stress raiser,the extent of concentration is mitigated with increasing depth at different velocity levels.

Research on Coordinated Development and Optimization of Distribution Networks at All Levels in Distributed Power Energy Engineering

The uncertainty of distributed generation energy has dramatically challenged the coordinated development of distribution networks at all levels.This paper focuses on the multi-time-scale regulation model of distributed generation energy under normal conditions.The simulation results of the example verify the self-optimization characteristics and the effectiveness of real-time dispatching of the distribution network control technology at all levels under multiple time scales.

Joint probability distribution of winds and waves from wave simulation of 20 years (1989-2008) in Bohai Bay

The joint probability distribution of wind speed and significant wave height in the Bohai Bay was investigated by comparing the Gurnbel logistic model, the Gumbel-Hougaard （GH） copula function, and the Clayton copula function. Twenty years of wind data from 1989 to 2008 were collected from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts （ECMWF） database and the blended wind data of the Quick Scatterometer （QSCAT） satellite data set and re-analysis data from the United States National Centers for Environmental Prediction （NCEP）. Several typhoons were taken into account and merged with the background wind fields from the ECMWF or QSCAT/NCEP database. The 20-year data of significant wave height were calculated with the unstructured-grid version of the third-generation wind wave model Simulating WAves Nearshore （SWAN） under extreme wind process conditions. The Gumbel distribution was used for univariate and marginal distributions. The distribution parameters were estimated with the method of L-moments. Based on the marginal distributions, the joint probability distributions, the associated return periods, and the conditional probability distributions were obtained. The GH copula function was found to be optimal according to the ordinary least squares （OLS） test. The results show that wind waves are the prevailing type of wave in the Bohai Bay.

Joint modelling of location and scale parameters of the skew-normal distribution

Joint location and scale models of the skew-normal distribution provide useful ex- tension for joint mean and variance models of the normal distribution when the data set under consideration involves asymmetric outcomes. This paper focuses on the maximum likelihood estimation of joint location and scale models of the skew-normal distribution. The proposed procedure can simultaneously estimate parameters in the location model and the scale model. Simulation studies and a real example are used to illustrate the proposed methodologies.

Finite element analysis of stress and strain distributions in mortise and loose tenon furniture joints

We studied the effect of loose tenon dimensions on stress and strain distributions in T-shaped mortise and loose tenon （M＆amp;LT） furni-ture joints under uniaxial bending loads, and determined the effects of loose tenon length （30, 45, 60, and 90 mm） and loose tenon thickness （6 and 8 mm） on bending moment capacity of M＆amp;LT joints constructed with polyvinyl acetate （PVAc） adhesive. Stress and strain distributions in joint elements were then estimated for each joint using ANSYS finite element （FE） software. The bending moment capacity of joints increased significantly with thickness and length of the tenon. Based on the FE analysis results, under uniaxial bending, the highest shear stress values were obtained in the middle parts of the tenon, while the highest shear elastic strain values were estimated in glue lines between the tenon sur-faces and walls of the mortise. Shear stress and shear elastic strain values in joint elements generally increased with tenon dimensions and corre-sponding bending moment capacities. There was consistency between predicted maximum shear stress values and failure modes of the joints.

Parametric message passing-based relative navigation in joint tactical information distribution system

Relative navigation is a key feature in the joint tactical information distribution system（JTIDS）.A parametric message passing algorithm based on factor graph is proposed to perform relative navigation in JTIDS.First of all,the joint posterior distribution of all the terminals＇ positions is represented by factor graph.Because of the nonlinearity between the positions and time-of-arrival（TOA） measurement,messages cannot be obtained in closed forms by directly using the sum-product algorithm on factor graph.To this end,the Euclidean norm is approximated by Taylor expansion.Then,all the messages on the factor graph can be derived in Gaussian forms,which enables the terminals to transmit means and covariances.Finally,the impact of major error sources on the navigation performance are evaluated by Monte Carlo simulations,e.g.,range measurement noise,priors of position uncertainty and velocity noise.Results show that the proposed algorithm outperforms the extended Kalman filter and cooperative extended Kalman filter in both static and mobile scenarios of the JTIDS.

Bayesian Joint Modelling of Survival Time and Longitudinal CD4 Cell Counts Using Accelerated Failure Time and Generalized Error Distributions

Survival of HIV/AIDS patients is crucially dependent on comprehensive and targeted medical interventions such as supply of antiretroviral therapy and monitoring disease progression with CD4 T-cell counts. Statistical modelling approaches are helpful towards this goal. This study aims at developing Bayesian joint models with assumed generalized error distribution (GED) for the longitudinal CD4 data and two accelerated failure time distributions, Lognormal and loglogistic, for the survival time of HIV/AIDS patients. Data are obtained from patients under antiretroviral therapy follow-up at Shashemene referral hospital during January 2006-January 2012 and at Bale Robe general hospital during January 2008-March 2015. The Bayesian joint models are defined through latent variables and association parameters and with specified non-informative prior distributions for the model parameters. Simulations are conducted using Gibbs sampler algorithm implemented in the WinBUGS software. The results of the analyses of the two different data sets show that distributions of measurement errors of the longitudinal CD4 variable follow the generalized error distribution with fatter tails than the normal distribution. The Bayesian joint GED loglogistic models fit better to the data sets compared to the lognormal cases. Findings reveal that patients’ health can be improved over time. Compared to the males, female patients gain more CD4 counts. Survival time of a patient is negatively affected by TB infection. Moreover, increase in number of opportunistic infection implies decline of CD4 counts. Patients’ age negatively affects the disease marker with no effects on survival time. Improving weight may improve survival time of patients. Bayesian joint models with GED and AFT distributions are found to be useful in modelling the longitudinal and survival processes. Thus we recommend the generalized error distributions for measurement errors of the longitudinal data under the Bayesian joint modelling. Further studies may investigate the models with various types of shared random effects and more covariates with predictions.

Three‑dimensional numerical simulation of dynamic strength and failure mode of a rock mass with cross joints

To study the dynamic mechanical properties and failure characteristics of intersecting jointed rock masses with different joint distributions under confining pressure,considering the cross angleαand joint persistence ratioη,a numerical model of the biaxial Hopkinson bar test system was established using the finite element method–discrete-element model coupling method.The validity of the model was verified by comparing and analyzing it in conjunction with laboratory test results.Dynamics-static combined impact tests were conducted on specimens under various conditions to investigate the strength characteristics and patterns of crack initiation and expansion.The study revealed the predominant factors influencing intersecting joints with different angles and penetrations under impact loading.The results show that the peak stress of the specimens decreases first and then increases with the increase of the cross angle.Whenα<60°,regardless of the value ofη,the dynamic stress of the specimens is controlled by the main joint.Whenα≥60°,the peak stress borne by the specimens decreases with increasingη.Whenα<60°,the initiation and propagation of cracks in the cross-jointed specimens are mainly controlled by the main joint,and the final failure surface of the specimens is composed of the main joint and wing cracks.Whenα≥60°orη≥0.67,the secondary joint guides the expansion of the wing cracks,and multiple failure surfaces composed of main and secondary joints,wing cracks,and co-planar cracks are formed.Increasing lateral confinement significantly increases the dynamic peak stress able to be borne by the specimens.Under triaxial conditions,the degree of failure of the intersecting jointed specimens is much lower than that under uniaxial and biaxial conditions.

RB-DEM Modeling and Simulation of Non-Persisting Rough Open Joints Based on the IFS-Enhanced Method

When the geological environment of rock masses is disturbed,numerous non-persisting open joints can appear within it.It is crucial to investigate the effect of open joints on the mechanical properties of rock mass.However,it has been challenging to generate realistic open joints in traditional experimental tests and numerical simulations.This paper presents a novel solution to solve the problem.By utilizing the stochastic distribution of joints and an enhanced-fractal interpolation system(IFS)method,rough curves with any orientation can be generated.The Douglas-Peucker algorithm is then applied to simplify these curves by removing unnecessary points while preserving their fundamental shape.Subsequently,open joints are created by connecting points that move to both sides of rough curves based on the aperture distribution.Mesh modeling is performed to construct the final mesh model.Finally,the RB-DEM method is applied to transform the mesh model into a discrete element model containing geometric information about these open joints.Furthermore,this study explores the impacts of rough open joint orientation,aperture,and number on rock fracture mechanics.This method provides a realistic and effective approach for modeling and simulating these non-persisting open joints.

Joint and supremum distributions in the compound binomial model with Markovian environment

In this paper, we study the compound binomial model in Markovian environment, which is proposed by Cossette, et al. （2003）. We obtain the recursive formula of the joint distributions of T, X（T - 1） and ｜X（T）｜（i.e., the time of ruin, the surplus before ruin and the deficit at ruin） by the method of mass function of up-crossing zero points, as given by Liu and Zhao （2007）. By using the same method, the recursive formula of supremum distribution is obtained. An example is included to illustrate the results of the model.

Long-Term Joint Distribution of One-Tenth Large (or Significant) Wave Height with Average Period

In this paper, by using the wave data from a few oceanographic observation stations in the coastal zone of the Yellow Sea, the East China Sea and the South China Sea, the long-term joint distribution of the one-tenth large (or significant) wave height with average period is studied. The statistical data demonstrate that the long- term distribution of the one- tenth wave height or average period fits the log-normal distribution, thus the joint distribution also fits the two-dimensional log-normal distribution. Then the conditional probability distribution of the average period is derived, and the range as well as the mode of the average wave period corresponding to a certain return period of wave height can be calculated easily.

Numerical studies on the stress distribution in weldbonded joints with different adhesives

The Effect of elastic modulus and thickness of the adhesives on the stress distribution in weldbonded joints has been studied with three-dimensional elastoplastic finite element method ( FEM). Stress distribution curves have been obtained at the edges of the spot welds and the lap zones in weldbonded joints, which were made with adhesives of different elastic modulus or different thickness. Results show that there exists larger stress concentration at the edge of the spot welds, though the shear stresses in the adhesive layers are smaller for weldbonded joints with low elastic modulus or thick adhesive layers. The stress concentration decreases and the shear stresses in adhesive layers increase with the increase of the elastic modulus or the decrease of the adhesive thickness. It is concluded that the thiner adhesive layers with higher elastic modulius are preferable in weldbonded joints to cut down the stress concentration.

Joint Distribution of Wave Periods and Rate of Change of Wave Surface Elevation

The rate of change of wave surface elevation is of much importance in ocean engineering, especially for the determination of the limitation of wave breaking. This paper gives a kind of joint distribution of wave periods and the rate of change of wave surface elevation by means of calculation of the two-order to four-order moment of the frequency spectrum based on the linear wave theory. For the first time, the distribution density function of wave periods determined by peaks is provided, and the conclusion is drawn that the rate of change of wave surface elevation obeys the Rayleigh distribution.

THE SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION AND MOMENTS OF CIRCULAR FREELY JOINTED CHAIN

The spatial distribution function and second moments of circular freely jointed chain are derived based on an analytical method. The circular Gauss chain, which is simple for long chains, is compared with the circular freely jointed chain, which is exact for short chains. It is shown that the Gauss chain model predicts a more compact configurational distribution than the exact freely jointed chain. The two chain models, however, become closer to each other when the chain length increases. It is found that the difference of the mean square radius of gyration calculated with these two chain models is a constant, independent of the chain length.

Modified Joint Distribution of Wave Heights and Periods

The modified versions of the linear theoretical model of Longuet-Higgins （1983） are derived in this work and also compared with the laboratory experiments carried out in MAR1NTEK. The main feature of modifications is to replace the mean frequency in the formulation with the peak frequency of the wave spectrum. These two alternative forms of joint distributions are checked in three typical random sea states characterized by the initial wave steepness. In order to further explore the properties ＆these models, the associated marginal distributions of wave heights and wave periods are also researched with the observed statistics and some encouraging results are obtained.

On the long-term joint distribution of characteristic wave height and period and its application

By analysing the scatter diagrams of characteristic the wave height H and the period T on the basis of instrumental data from various ocean wave stations, we found that the conditional expectation and standard deviation of wave period for a given wave height can be better predicted by using the equations of normal linear regression rather than by those based on the log- normal law. The latter was implied in Ochi' s bivariate log-normal model(Ochi. 1978) for the long-term joint distribution of H and T. With the expectation and standard deviation predicted by the normal linear regression equations and applying proper types of distribution, we have obtained the conditional distribution of T for given H. Then combining this conditional P(T / H) with long-term marginal distribution of the wave height P(H) we establish a new parameterized model for the long-term joint distribution P(H,T). As an example of the application of the new model we give a method for estimating wave period associated with an extreme wave height.

The joint limiting distribution of maxima with random indexes and sums of normal sequence

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Investigation of stress distribution and damage behavior caused by forced installation of a composite bolted joint with a hole-location error

In this paper,the influence of forced installation caused by a hole-location error on the 3D stress distribution and damage of a composite bolted joint is investigated.An analytical model of stress distributed on composite holes is promoted,in view of non-uniform extrusion caused by forced installation.At first,non-uniform extrusion of the hole edge caused by forced installation is analyzed.According to the contact state,expression of hole deformation is given.Then,based on Hertz theory,the maximum extrusion load is obtained with help of deformation expression.By constructing an elastic foundation beam model,3D stress distributed on a hole could be analyzed according to the extrusion load.Then,stress distribution predicted by the above analytical method is compared with that provided by FE considering composite damage.Finally,a forced installation experiment is carried out to analyze the damage distribution of the joint.Results show that a central-symmetrically distributed stress is introduced by the hole-location error.With an increment of the error,strength of composite decreases due to extrusion damage.Therefore,stress presents a concave distribution on the hole.As the hole-location error exceeding 3%,stress decreases gradually due to failure of composite.Damage of holes does not exhibit a centrosymmetric distribution.Serious damage is mainly distributed on the entrance of the hole at the lower sheet.

Sand particle lift-off velocity measurements and numerical simulation of mass flux distributions in a wind tunnel

Lift-off velocity of saltating sand particles in wind-blown sand located at 1.0 mm above the sand bed surface was measured using a phase Doppler particle analyzer in a wind tunnel. The results show that the probability distribution of lift-off velocity can be expressed as a lognormal function, while that of lift-off angle follows an exponential function. The probability distribution of lift-off angle conditioned for each lift-off velocity also follows an exponential function, with a slope that becomes steeper with increasing lift-off velocity. This implies that the probability distribution of lift-off velocity is strongly dependent on the lift-off angle. However, these lift-off parameters are generally treated as an independent joint probability distribution in the literature. Numerical simulations were carried out to investigate the effects of conditional versus independent joint probability distributions on the vertical sand mass flux distribution. The simulation results derived from the conditional joint probability distribution agree much better with experimental data than those from the independent ones. Thus, it is better to describe the lift-off velocity of saltating sand particles using the conditional joint probability distribution. These results improve our understanding of saltation processes in wind-blown sand.