Numerical climate models render data in a gridded format which is often problematic for integrated analysis with other kinds of data in jurisdictional formats. In this paper a joint analysis of municipal Gross Domesti...Numerical climate models render data in a gridded format which is often problematic for integrated analysis with other kinds of data in jurisdictional formats. In this paper a joint analysis of municipal Gross Domestic Product per capita (GDPc) and predicted temperature increase was undertaken in order to estimate different levels of human and economic exposure. This is based on a method of converting model outputs into a country municipal grid which enabled depicting climate predictions from the Eta-Hadgem2-ES Regional Climate Model (RCM) into the municipal level in Brazil. The conversion to country municipality grid was made using a combination of interpolation and buffering techniques in ArcGIS for two emission scenarios (RCP 4.5 and 8.5) and three timeframes (2011-2040, 2041-2070, 2071-2100) for mean temperature increase and number of heatwave days (WSDI). The results were used to support the Third National Communication (TCN) of Brazil to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and show a coherent matching of the gridded output from the original RCM. The joint climate and GDPc analysis show that in the beginning of the century the more severe warming is centred over regions where GDPc is generally higher (Centre-West and Southeast). At the end of the century, critical levels of warming spread north and northeastwards where municipalities have the lowest GDPc levels. In the high emission scenario (RCP 8.5), the strongest warming and the spreading over poorer regions are anticipated to the mid-century. These results are the key to further explore solutions for climate change adaptation based on current resources and prepare in different sectors, for long-term risk management and climate adaptation planning strategies.展开更多
According to the data from Investigation Report of Land Use Change in China,The Land Resources Communique of China and Chronicle of Statistical Data for Five Decades of New China issued from Ministry of Land Resources...According to the data from Investigation Report of Land Use Change in China,The Land Resources Communique of China and Chronicle of Statistical Data for Five Decades of New China issued from Ministry of Land Resources,we select two indices:change of farmland quantity and policy of farmland protection.According to econometric theory,by using Eviewes 5.1 software,co-integration analysis,Granger causality test,impulse response and other analysis methods,we analyze the relationship between change of farmland quantity and policy of farmland protection in China since the reform and opening-up.The results show that there is long-term balanced relationship between change of farmland quantity and policy of farmland protection,and there is a certain mechanism restricting motion of variables between the two so as to make the two deviate from each other little and step towards balance in the long run;there is unilateral causality relationship between farmland change and policy of farmland protection,namely that the farmland change is the Granger cause of policy of farmland protection,while policy of farmland protection is not the Granger cause of farmland change;impulse response and variance decomposition indicate that farmland change plays the role of promoting policy of farmland protection continuously,and the role is strengthened along with prolonged lag period;the policy of farmland protection has strong inertia,because it is impacted by the former level of itself,and the policy of farmland protection plays insignificant role in promoting farmland quantity.Consequently,the important approach of solving problem of rapid decrease of farmland is to formulate long-term strategy,strengthen theoretical research of farmland protection and reinforce degree of formulation,implementation and surveillance of farmland protection policy.展开更多
气候变暖已经引起全球降水格局改变。土壤呼吸作为陆地生态系统向大气释放CO_(2)最大的碳库,对降水变化的响应将进一步影响碳循环,从而对全球气候变化产生反馈。尽管以往已有大量关于土壤呼吸与降水变化关系的相关研究,但存在较大争议...气候变暖已经引起全球降水格局改变。土壤呼吸作为陆地生态系统向大气释放CO_(2)最大的碳库,对降水变化的响应将进一步影响碳循环,从而对全球气候变化产生反馈。尽管以往已有大量关于土壤呼吸与降水变化关系的相关研究,但存在较大争议。因此,亟待进一步深入探究土壤呼吸对降水改变的响应。基于此,研究Meta分析方法,整合了来自Web of Science英文数据库和中国知网文献数据库(CNKI)的284篇已发表的论文和367组数据,进而分析全球中低纬度地区土壤呼吸对降水改变的响应。研究结果表明,土壤呼吸对降水改变的响应呈现出非对称特征,降水量增加能够提高16.7%的土壤呼吸,而降水量减少则会抑制17.88%的土壤呼吸。研究还发现,不同生态系统和气候区域的土壤呼吸对降水改变的响应存在较大差别。其中,降水量增加能够提高草地生态系统22%的土壤呼吸,比森林生态系统土壤呼吸高出12%;而降水量减少则会削弱草地生态系统28%的土壤呼吸,这要比森林生态系统土壤呼吸还高16%。与湿润地区相比,降水量的增加对干旱地区土壤呼吸的促进作用更加明显。而降水量的减少对干旱地区和湿润地区土壤呼吸的影响均无显著差异。此外,本研究也证实了土壤呼吸对不同降水强度和年限的响应也存在差异。在不同降水强度上,无论增加降水还是减少降水,重度增减雨的土壤呼吸均改变最大,即:重度增减雨(>75%)>中度增减雨(25%—75%)>轻度增减雨(<25%);在不同降水年限上,长期增雨对土壤呼吸的促进作用尤为突出,但长期减雨对土壤呼吸影响无显著差异。研究结果可为未来气候情景下陆地生态系统土壤呼吸变化的准确预测以及模型模拟和改进提供重要的科学依据和理论基础。展开更多
基金the United Nations Programme for Development(UNDP),Rede Clima(FINEP 01.13.0353.00)the Brazilian Ministry for Science and Technology for their financial support
文摘Numerical climate models render data in a gridded format which is often problematic for integrated analysis with other kinds of data in jurisdictional formats. In this paper a joint analysis of municipal Gross Domestic Product per capita (GDPc) and predicted temperature increase was undertaken in order to estimate different levels of human and economic exposure. This is based on a method of converting model outputs into a country municipal grid which enabled depicting climate predictions from the Eta-Hadgem2-ES Regional Climate Model (RCM) into the municipal level in Brazil. The conversion to country municipality grid was made using a combination of interpolation and buffering techniques in ArcGIS for two emission scenarios (RCP 4.5 and 8.5) and three timeframes (2011-2040, 2041-2070, 2071-2100) for mean temperature increase and number of heatwave days (WSDI). The results were used to support the Third National Communication (TCN) of Brazil to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and show a coherent matching of the gridded output from the original RCM. The joint climate and GDPc analysis show that in the beginning of the century the more severe warming is centred over regions where GDPc is generally higher (Centre-West and Southeast). At the end of the century, critical levels of warming spread north and northeastwards where municipalities have the lowest GDPc levels. In the high emission scenario (RCP 8.5), the strongest warming and the spreading over poorer regions are anticipated to the mid-century. These results are the key to further explore solutions for climate change adaptation based on current resources and prepare in different sectors, for long-term risk management and climate adaptation planning strategies.
文摘According to the data from Investigation Report of Land Use Change in China,The Land Resources Communique of China and Chronicle of Statistical Data for Five Decades of New China issued from Ministry of Land Resources,we select two indices:change of farmland quantity and policy of farmland protection.According to econometric theory,by using Eviewes 5.1 software,co-integration analysis,Granger causality test,impulse response and other analysis methods,we analyze the relationship between change of farmland quantity and policy of farmland protection in China since the reform and opening-up.The results show that there is long-term balanced relationship between change of farmland quantity and policy of farmland protection,and there is a certain mechanism restricting motion of variables between the two so as to make the two deviate from each other little and step towards balance in the long run;there is unilateral causality relationship between farmland change and policy of farmland protection,namely that the farmland change is the Granger cause of policy of farmland protection,while policy of farmland protection is not the Granger cause of farmland change;impulse response and variance decomposition indicate that farmland change plays the role of promoting policy of farmland protection continuously,and the role is strengthened along with prolonged lag period;the policy of farmland protection has strong inertia,because it is impacted by the former level of itself,and the policy of farmland protection plays insignificant role in promoting farmland quantity.Consequently,the important approach of solving problem of rapid decrease of farmland is to formulate long-term strategy,strengthen theoretical research of farmland protection and reinforce degree of formulation,implementation and surveillance of farmland protection policy.
文摘气候变暖已经引起全球降水格局改变。土壤呼吸作为陆地生态系统向大气释放CO_(2)最大的碳库,对降水变化的响应将进一步影响碳循环,从而对全球气候变化产生反馈。尽管以往已有大量关于土壤呼吸与降水变化关系的相关研究,但存在较大争议。因此,亟待进一步深入探究土壤呼吸对降水改变的响应。基于此,研究Meta分析方法,整合了来自Web of Science英文数据库和中国知网文献数据库(CNKI)的284篇已发表的论文和367组数据,进而分析全球中低纬度地区土壤呼吸对降水改变的响应。研究结果表明,土壤呼吸对降水改变的响应呈现出非对称特征,降水量增加能够提高16.7%的土壤呼吸,而降水量减少则会抑制17.88%的土壤呼吸。研究还发现,不同生态系统和气候区域的土壤呼吸对降水改变的响应存在较大差别。其中,降水量增加能够提高草地生态系统22%的土壤呼吸,比森林生态系统土壤呼吸高出12%;而降水量减少则会削弱草地生态系统28%的土壤呼吸,这要比森林生态系统土壤呼吸还高16%。与湿润地区相比,降水量的增加对干旱地区土壤呼吸的促进作用更加明显。而降水量的减少对干旱地区和湿润地区土壤呼吸的影响均无显著差异。此外,本研究也证实了土壤呼吸对不同降水强度和年限的响应也存在差异。在不同降水强度上,无论增加降水还是减少降水,重度增减雨的土壤呼吸均改变最大,即:重度增减雨(>75%)>中度增减雨(25%—75%)>轻度增减雨(<25%);在不同降水年限上,长期增雨对土壤呼吸的促进作用尤为突出,但长期减雨对土壤呼吸影响无显著差异。研究结果可为未来气候情景下陆地生态系统土壤呼吸变化的准确预测以及模型模拟和改进提供重要的科学依据和理论基础。
