GIS-Based Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) and Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) Techniques to Derive Flood Risks Management on Rice Productivity in Gishari Marshland

Floods are phenomenon with significant socio-economic implications mainly for human loss, agriculture, livestock, soil loss and land degradation, for which many researchers try to identify the most appropriate methodologies by analyzing their temporal and spatial development. This study therefore attempts to employ the GIS-based multi-criteria decision analysis and analytical hierarchy process techniques to derive the flood risks management on rice productivity in the Gishari Agricultural Marshland in Rwamagana district, Rwanda. Here, six influencing potential factors to flooding, including river slope, soil texture, Land Use Land Cover through Land Sat 8, rainfall, river distance and Digital Elevation Model are considered for the delineation of flood risk zones. Data acquisition like Landsat 8 images, DEM, land use land cover, slope, and soil class in the study area were considered. Results showed that if the DEM is outdated or inaccurate due to changes in the terrain, such as construction, excavation, or erosion, the predicted flood patterns might not reflect the actual water flow. This could result unexpected flood extents and depths, potentially inundating rice fields that were not previously at risk and this, expectedly explained that the increase 1 m in elevation would reduce the rice productivity by 0.17% due to unplanned flood risks in marshland. It was found that the change in rainfall distribution in Gishari agricultural marshland would also decrease the rice productivity by 0.0018%, which is a sign that rainfall is a major factor of flooding in rice scheme. Rainfall distribution plays a crucial role in flooding analysis and can directly impact rice productivity. Oppositely, another causal factor was Land Use Land Cover (LULC), where the Multivariate Logistic Regression Model Analysis findings showed that the increase of one unit in Land Use Land Cover would increase rice productivity by 0.17% of the total rice productivity from the Gishari Agricultural Marshland. Based on findings from these techniques, the Gishari Agricultural Marshlands having steeped land with grassland is classified into five classes of flooding namely very low, low, moderate, high, and very high which include 430%, 361%, 292%, 223%, and 154%. Government of Rwanda and other implementing agencies and major key actors have to contribute on soil and water conservation strategies to reduce the runoff and soil erosion as major contributors of flooding.

A Building Information Modeling-Life Cycle Cost Analysis Integrated Model to Enhance Decisions Related to the Selection of Construction Methods at the Conceptual Design Stage of Buildings

Life Cycle Cost Analysis (LCCA) provides a systematic approach to assess the total cost associated with owning, operating, and maintaining assets throughout their entire life. BIM empowers architects and designers to perform real-time evaluations to explore various design options. However, when integrated with LCCA, BIM provides a comprehensive economic perspective that helps stakeholders understand the long-term financial implications of design decisions. This study presents a methodology for developing a model that seamlessly integrates BIM and LCCA during the conceptual design stage of buildings. This integration allows for a comprehensive evaluation and analysis of the design process, ensuring that the development aligns with the principles of low carbon emissions by employing modular construction, 3D concrete printing methods, and different building design alternatives. The model considers the initial construction costs in addition to all the long-term operational, maintenance, and salvage values. It combines various tools and data through different modules, including energy analysis, Life Cycle Assessment (LCA), and Life Cycle Cost Analysis (LCCA) to execute a comprehensive assessment of the financial implications of a specific design option throughout the lifecycle of building projects. The development of the said model and its implementation involves the creation of a new plug-in for the BIM tool (i.e., Autodesk Revit) to enhance its functionalities and capabilities in forecasting the life-cycle costs of buildings in addition to generating associated cash flows, creating scenarios, and sensitivity analyses in an automatic manner. This model empowers designers to evaluate and justify their initial investments while designing and selecting potential construction methods for buildings, and enabling stakeholders to make informed decisions by assessing different design alternatives based on long-term financial considerations during the early stages of design.

Reliability Analysis of Satellite Turntable System under Multiple Operation Modes Based on Multi-Valued Decision Diagrams

As a payload support system deployed on satellites,the turntable system is often switched among different working modes during the on-orbit operation,which can experience great state changes.In each mode,the missions to be completed are different,consecutive and non-over-lapping,from which the turntable system can be considered to be a phased-mission system(PMS).Reliability analysis for PMS has been widely studied.However,the system mode cycle characteristic has not been taken into account before.In this paper,reliability analysis method of the satellite turntable system is proposed considering its multiple operation modes and mode cycle characteristic.Firstly,the multi-valued decision diagrams(MDD)manipulation rules between two adjacent mission cycles are proposed.On this basis,MDD models for the turntable system in different states are established and the reliability is calculated using the continuous time Markov chains(CTMC)method.Finally,the comparative study is carried out to show the effectiveness of our proposed method.

Multi-Criteria Group Decision-Making Method Based on an Improved Single-Valued Neutrosophic Hamacher Weighted Average Operator and Grey Relational Analysis

This paper proposes a multi-criteria decision-making (MCGDM) method based on the improved single-valued neutrosophic Hamacher weighted averaging (ISNHWA) operator and grey relational analysis (GRA) to overcome the limitations of present methods based on aggregation operators. First, the limitations of several existing single-valued neutrosophic weighted averaging aggregation operators (i.e. , the single-valued neutrosophic weighted averaging, single-valued neutrosophic weighted algebraic averaging, single-valued neutrosophic weighted Einstein averaging, single-valued neutrosophic Frank weighted averaging, and single-valued neutrosophic Hamacher weighted averaging operators), which can produce some indeterminate terms in the aggregation process, are discussed. Second, an ISNHWA operator was developed to overcome the limitations of existing operators. Third, the properties of the proposed operator, including idempotency, boundedness, monotonicity, and commutativity, were analyzed. Application examples confirmed that the ISNHWA operator and the proposed MCGDM method are rational and effective. The proposed improved ISNHWA operator and MCGDM method can overcome the indeterminate results in some special cases in existing single-valued neutrosophic weighted averaging aggregation operators and MCGDM methods.

Design and Implementation of the Employment Management Decision Support System based on Machine Learning

To address the challenges of current college student employment management,this study designed and implemented a machine learning-based decision support system for college student employment management.The system collects and analyzes multidimensional data,uses machine learning algorithms for prediction and matching,provides personalized employment guidance for students,and provides decision support for universities and enterprises.The research results indicate that the system can effectively improve the efficiency and accuracy of employment guidance,promote school-enterprise cooperation,and achieve a win-win situation for all parties.

Neighborhood Effects and Political Trust: A Multi-level Analysis of Chinese Rural-to-Urban Migrants’ Trust in County Government

Massive rural-to-urban migration in China is consequential for political trust: rural-to-urban migrants have been found to hold lower levels of trust in local government than their rural peers who choose to stay in the countryside (mean 4.92 and 6.34 out of 10, respectively, p < 0.001). This article explores why migrants have a certain level of political trust in their county-level government. Using data of rural-to-urban migrants from the China Family Panel Survey, this study performs a hierarchical linear modeling (HLM) to unpack the multi-level explanatory factors of rural-to-urban migrants’ political trust. Findings show that the individual-level socio-economic characteristics and perceptions of government performance (Level-1), the neighborhood-level characteristics-the physical and social status and environment of neighborhoods (Level-2), and the objective macroeconomic performance of county-level government (Level-3), work together to explain migrants’ trust levels. These results suggest that considering the effects of neighborhood-level factors on rural-to-urban migrants’ political trust merits policy and public management attention in rapidly urbanizing countries.

Mortality outcomes of low-dose computed tomography screening for lung cancer in urban China:a decision analysis and implications for practice

Background: Mortality outcomes in trials of low-dose computed tomography(CT) screening for lung cancer are inconsistent. This study aimed to evaluate whether CT screening in urban areas of China could reduce lung cancer mortality and to investigate the factors that associate with the screening effect.Methods: A decision tree model with three scenarios(low-dose CT screening, chest X-ray screening, and no screening) was developed to compare screening results in a simulated Chinese urban cohort(100,000 smokers aged45-80 years). Data of participant characteristics were obtained from national registries and epidemiological surveys for estimating lung cancer prevalence. The selection of other tree variables such as sensitivities and specificities of low-dose CT and chest X-ray screening were based on literature research. Differences in lung cancer mortality(primary outcome), false diagnoses, and deaths due to false diagnosis were calculated. Sensitivity analyses were performed to identify the factors that associate with the screening results and to ascertain worst and optimal screening effects considering possible ranges of the variables.Results: Among the 100,000 subjects, there were 448,541, and 591 lung cancer deaths in the low-dose CT, chest X-ray, and no screening scenarios, respectively(17.2% reduction in low-dose CT screening over chest X-ray screening and 24.2% over no screening). The costs of the two screening scenarios were 9387 and 2497 false diagnoses and 7and 2 deaths due to false diagnosis among the 100,000 persons, respectively. The factors that most influenced death reduction with low-dose CT screening over no screening were lung cancer prevalence in the screened cohort, lowdose CT sensitivity, and proportion of early-stage cancers among low-dose CT detected lung cancers. Considering all possibilities, reduction in deaths(relative numbers) with low-dose CT screening in the worst and optimal cases were16(5.4%) and 288(40.2%) over no screening, respectively.Conclusions: In terms of mortality outcomes, our findings favor conducting low-dose CT screening in urban China.However, approaches to reducing false diagnoses and optimizing important screening conditions such as enrollment criteria for screening are highly needed.

Fuzzy data envelopment analysis approach based on sample decision making units

The conventional data envelopment analysis （DEA） measures the relative efficiencies of a set of decision making units with exact values of inputs and outputs. In real-world prob- lems, however, inputs and outputs typically have some levels of fuzziness. To analyze a decision making unit （DMU） with fuzzy input/output data, previous studies provided the fuzzy DEA model and proposed an associated evaluating approach. Nonetheless, numerous deficiencies must still be improved, including the α- cut approaches, types of fuzzy numbers, and ranking techniques. Moreover, a fuzzy sample DMU still cannot be evaluated for the Fuzzy DEA model. Therefore, this paper proposes a fuzzy DEA model based on sample decision making unit （FSDEA）. Five eval- uation approaches and the related algorithm and ranking methods are provided to test the fuzzy sample DMU of the FSDEA model. A numerical experiment is used to demonstrate and compare the results with those obtained using alternative approaches.

Response surface method using grey relational analysis for decision making in weapon system selection

A proper weapon system is very important for a na- tional defense system. Generally, it means selecting the optimal weapon system among many alternatives, which is a multiple- attribute decision making （MADM） problem. This paper proposes a new mathematical model based on the response surface method （RSM） and the grey relational analysis （GRA）. RSM is used to obtain the experimental points and analyze the factors that have a significant impact on the selection results. GRA is used to an- alyze the trend relationship between alternatives and reference series. And then an RSM model is obtained, which can be used to calculate all alternatives and obtain ranking results. A real world application is introduced to illustrate the utilization of the model for the weapon selection problem. The results show that this model can be used to help decision-makers to make a quick comparison of alternatives and select a proper weapon system from multiple alternatives, which is an effective and adaptable method for solving the weapon system selection problem.

Potential landfill site selection for solid waste disposal using GIS and multi-criteria decision analysis(MCDA)

Proper solid waste disposal is an important socioeconomic concern for all developing countries.Municipalities have their own policies,individual approaches and methods to manage the solid wastes.They consider wastelands outside the urban area as the best suitable for the solid waste disposal.Such improper site selection will create morphological changes that lead to environmental hazards in the urban and its surrounding areas.In this research,the site selection for urban solid waste disposal in the Coimbatore district used geographical information system(GIS)and multi-criteria decision analysis(MCDA).Thematic layers of lineament density,landuse/landcover,population density,groundwater depth,drainage density,slope,soil texture,geology and geomorphology were considered as primary criteria and weights for criteria,and sub-criteria were assigned by MCDA analysis.The resultant weight score was validated by consistency ratio so that the efficiency of the selected criteria was justified.The overlay analysis in GIS environment provides 17 potential zones in Coimbatore district,among which,four suitable sites were screened and refined with the help of field investigation and visual interpretation of satellite image.The result of landfill suitability map shows the effectiveness of the proposed method.

Fetal distress prediction using discriminant analysis, decision tree, and artificial neural network

Fetal distress is one of the main factors to cesarean section in obstetrics and gynecology. If the fetus lack of oxygen in uterus, threat to the fetal health and fetal death could happen. Cardiotocography (CTG) is the most widely used technique to monitor the fetal health and fetal heart rate (FHR) is an important index to identify occurs of fetal distress. This study is to propose discriminant analysis (DA), decision tree (DT), and artificial neural network (ANN) to evaluate fetal distress. The results show that the accuracies of DA, DT and ANN are 82.1%, 86.36% and 97.78%, respectively.

Canadian children’s and youth’s adherence to the 24-h movement guidelines during the COVID-19 pandemic: A decision tree analysis

Purpose:The purpose of this study was to use decision tree modeling to generate profiles of children and youth who were more and less likely to meet the Canadian 24-h movement guidelines during the coronavirus disease-2019(COVID-19)outbreak.Methods:Data for this study were from a nationally representative sample of 1472 Canadian parents(Meanage=45.12,SD=7.55)of children(511 years old)or youth(1217 years old).Data were collected in April 2020 via an online survey.Survey items assessed demographic,behavioral,social,micro-environmental,and macro-environmental characteristics.Four decision trees of adherence and non-adherence to all movement recommendations combined and each individual movement recommendation(physical activity(PA),screen time,and sleep)were generated.Results:Results revealed specific combinations of adherence and non-adherence characteristics.Characteristics associated with adherence to the recommendation(s)included high parental perceived capability to restrict screen time,annual household income ofCAD 100,000,increases in children’s and youth’s outdoor PA/sport since the COVID-19 outbreak began,being a boy,having parents younger than 43 years old,and small increases in children’s and youth’s sleep duration since the COVID-19 outbreak began.Characteristics associated with non-adherence to the recommendation(s)included low parental perceived capability to restrict screen time,youth aged 1217 years,decreases in children’s and youth’s outdoor PA/sport since the COVID-19 outbreak began,primary residences located in all provinces except Quebec,low parental perceived capability to support children’s and youth’s sleep and PA,and annual household income ofCAD 99,999.Conclusion:Our results show that specific characteristics interact to contribute to(non)adherence to the movement behavior recommendations.Results highlight the importance of targeting parents’perceived capability for the promotion of children’s and youth’s movement behaviors during challenging times of the COVID-19 pandemic,paying particular attention to enhancing parental perceived capability to restrict screen time.

Utilizing comprehensive decision analysis methods to determine an optimal planting pattern and nitrogen application for winter oilseed rape

Oilseed rape is one of the most important oil crops globally.Attaining the appropriate cultivation method(planting pattern and nitrogen level)is necessary to achieve high yield,quality and resource utilization efficiency.However,the optimal method for oilseed rape varies across countries and regions.The objective of the present study was to determine an appropriate cultivation method,including planting pattern and nitrogen application,for winter oilseed rape in northwestern China.Two planting patterns:ridge film mulching and furrow planting(RFMF)and flat planting(FP),and six nitrogen(N)amounts:0(N0),60(N60),120(N120),180(N180),240(N240),and 300(N300)kg N ha–1 were applied across three growing seasons(2014–2017).Three comprehensive decision analysis methods:principal component analysis,grey correlation degree analysis and the combined entropy weight and dynamic technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution method were used to evaluate the growth and physiological indicators,nutrient uptake,yield,quality,evapotranspiration,and water use efficiency of winter oilseed rape.Planting pattern,nitrogen amount and their interaction significantly affected the indicators aforementioned.The RFMF pattern significantly increased all indicators over the FP pattern.Application of N also markedly increased all the indicators except for seed oil content,but the yield,oil production and water use efficiency were decreased when N fertilizer exceeded 180 kg N ha–1 under FP and 240 kg N ha–1 under RFFM.The evaluation results of the three comprehensive decision analysis methods indicated that RFMF planting pattern with 240 kg N ha–1 is an appropriate cultivation method for winter oilseed rape in northwestern China.These findings are of vital significance to maximize yield,optimize quality and improve resource use efficiencies of winter oilseed rape.

Risk analysis and maintenance decision making of natural gas pipelines with external corrosion based on Bayesian network

Buried natural gas pipelines are vulnerable to external corrosion because they are encased in a soil environment for a long time.Identifying the causes of external corrosion and taking specific maintenance measures is essential.In this work,a risk analysis and maintenance decision-making model for natural gas pipelines with external corrosion is proposed based on a Bayesian network.A fault tree model is first employed to identify the causes of external corrosion.The Bayesian network for risk analysis is determined accordingly.The maintenance strategies are then inserted into the Bayesian network to show a reduction of the risk.The costs of maintenance strategies and the reduced risk after maintenance are combined in an optimization function to build a decision-making model.Because of the limitations of historical data,some of the parameters in the Bayesian network are obtained from a probabilistic estimation model,which combines expert experience and fuzzy set theory.Finally,a case study is carried out to verify the feasibility of the maintenance decision model.This indicates that the method proposed in this work can be used to provide effective maintenance schemes for different pipeline external corrosion scenarios and to reduce the possible losses caused by external corrosion.

Travel modal choice analysis for traffic corridors based on decision-theoretic approaches

The rapid development of multimodal transportation system prompts travellers to choose multiple transportation modes, such as private vehicles or taxi, transit(subways or buses), or park-and-ride combinations for urban trips. Traffic corridor is a major scenario that supports travellers to commute from suburban residential areas to central working areas. Studying their modal choice behaviour is receiving more and more interests. On one hand, it will guide the travellers to rationally choose their most economic and beneficial mode for urban trips. On the other hand, it will help traffic operators to make more appropriate policies to enhance the share of public transit in order to alleviate the traffic congestion and produce more economic and social benefits. To analyze the travel modal choice, a generalized cost model for three typical modes is first established to evaluate each different travel alternative. Then, random utility theory(RUT) and decision field theory(DFT) are introduced to describe the decision-making process how travellers make their mode choices. Further, some important factors that may influence the modal choice behaviour are discussed as well. To test the feasibility of the proposed model, a field test in Beijing was conducted to collect the real-time data and estimate the model parameters. The improvements in the test results and analysis show new advances in the development of travel mode choice on multimodal transportation networks.

Importance Analysis of a Multi-state System Based on Direct Partial Logic Derivatives and Multi-valued Decision Diagrams

Importance analysis quantifies the critical degree of individual component. Compared with the traditional binary state system,importance analysis of the multi-state system is more aligned with the practice. Because the multi-valued decision diagram( MDD) can reflect the relationship between the components and the system state bilaterally, it was introduced into the reliability calculation of the multi-state system( MSS). The building method,simplified criteria,and path search and probability algorithm of MSS structure function MDD were given,and the reliability of the system was calculated. The computing methods of importance based on MDD and direct partial logic derivatives( DPLD) were presented. The diesel engine fuel supply system was taken as an example to illustrate the proposed method. The results show that not only the probability of the system in each state can be easily obtained,but also the influence degree of each component and its state on the system reliability can be obtained,which is conducive to the condition monitoring and structure optimization of the system.

A Causal Configuration Analysis of Payment Decision Drivers in Paid Q&A

Purpose:This paper examines factors of payment decision as well as the role each factor plays in casual configurations leading to high payment intention under systematic and heuristic information processing routes.Design/methodology/approach:Based on heuristic-systematic model(HSM),we propose a configurational analytic framework to investigate complex casual relationships between influencing factors and payment decision.In line with this approach,we use fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis(fsQCA)to analyze data crawled from Zhihu.com.Findings:The number of previous consultations is a necessary element in all five equivalent configurations which lead to high intention in payment decision.The heuristic processing route plays a core role while the systematic processing route plays a peripheral role in payment decision-making process.Research limitations:Research is limited in that moderating effect of professional fields has not been considered in the framework.Practical implications:Configurations in results can assist managers of knowledge communities and paid Q&A service providers in the management of information elements to motivate more payment decision.Originality/value:This paper is one of the few studies to apply HSM theory and fsQCA method with respect to the payment decision in paid Q&A.

Group decision-making method based on entropy and experts cluster analysis

According to the aggregation method of experts＇ evaluation information in group decision-making,the existing methods of determining experts＇ weights based on cluster analysis take into account the expert＇s preferences and the consistency of expert＇s collating vectors,but they lack of the measure of information similarity.So it may occur that although the collating vector is similar to the group consensus,information uncertainty is great of a certain expert.However,it is clustered to a larger group and given a high weight.For this,a new aggregation method based on entropy and cluster analysis in group decision-making process is provided,in which the collating vectors are classified with information similarity coefficient,and the experts＇ weights are determined according to the result of classification,the entropy of collating vectors and the judgment matrix consistency.Finally,a numerical example shows that the method is feasible and effective.

Decision variables analysis for structured modeling

Structured modeling is the most commonly used modeling method, but it is not quite addaptive to significant changes in environmental conditions. Therefore, Decision Variables Analysis(DVA), a new modelling method is proposed to deal with linear programming modeling and changing environments. In variant linear programming , the most complicated relationships are those among decision variables. DVA classifies the decision variables into different levels using different index sets, and divides a model into different elements so that any change can only have its effect on part of the whole model. DVA takes into consideration the complicated relationships among decision variables at different levels, and can therefore sucessfully solve any modeling problem in dramatically changing environments.

Approach of technical decision-making by element flow analysis and Monte-Carlo simulation of municipal solid waste stream

This paper deals with the procedure and methodology which can be used to select the optimal treatment and disposal technology of municipal solid waste （MSW）, and to provide practical and effective technical support to policy-making, on the basis of study on solid waste management status and development trend in China and abroad. Focusing on various treatment and disposal technologies and processes of MSW, this study established a Monte-Carlo mathematical model of cost minimization for MSW handling subjected to environmental constraints. A new method of element stream （such as C, H, O, N, S） analysis in combination with economic stream analysis of MSW was developed. By following the streams of different treatment processes consisting of various techniques from generation, separation, transfer, transport, treatment, recycling and disposal of the wastes, the element constitution as well as its economic distribution in terms of possibility functions was identified. Every technique step was evaluated economically. The Mont-Carlo method was then conducted for model calibration. Sensitivity analysis was also carried out to identify the most sensitive factors. Model calibration indicated that landfill with power generation of landfill gas was economically the optimal technology at the present stage under the condition of more than 58% of C, H, O, N, S going to landfill. Whether or not to generate electricity was the most sensitive factor. If landfilling cost increases, MSW separation treatment was recommended by screening first followed with incinerating partially and composting partially with residue landfilling. The possibility of incineration model selection as the optimal technology was affected by the city scale. For big cities and metropolitans with large MSW generation, possibility for constructing large-scale incineration facilities increases, whereas, for middle and small cities, the effectiveness of incinerating waste decreases.