Seismic risk evaluation for a planning mountain tunnel using improved analytical hierarchy process based on extension theory

Seismic risk evaluation(SRE) in early stages(e.g., project planning and preliminary design)for a mountain tunnel located in seismic areas has the same importance as that in final stages(e.g.,performance-based design, structural analysis, and optimization). SRE for planning mountain tunnels bridges the gap between the planning on the macro level and the design/analysis on the micro level regarding the risk management of infrastructural systems. A transition from subjective or qualitative description to objective or quantitative quantification of seismic risk is aimed to improve the seismic behavior of the mountain tunnel and thus reduce the associated seismic risk. A new method of systematic SRE for the planning mountain tunnel was presented herein. The method employs extension theory(ET)and an ET-based improved analytical hierarchy process. Additionally, a new risk-classification criterion is proposed to classify and quantify the seismic risk for a planning mountain tunnel. This SRE method is applied to a mountain tunnel in southwest China, using the extension model based on matter element theory and dependent function operation.The reasonability and flexibility of the SRE method for application to the mountain tunnel are illustrated.According to different seismic risk levels and classification criteria, methods and measures for improving the seismic design are proposed, which can reduce the seismic risk and provide a frame of reference for elaborate seismic design.

Research on Extension Evaluation of Rural Road Maintenance Quality Based on Game Theory

The importance of rural highway maintenance is self-evident, and it is also a basic work of the highway operation department. Selecting an appropriate evaluation method can timely and accurately find the pavement diseases, and improve the timeliness of pavement repair. To improve the accuracy of pavement quality comprehensive evaluation, based on the game theory, the improved extension evaluation method was combined with subjective and objective weight determination methods in this paper, to propose a comprehensive weight determination method with a good operability. The results show that the improved extension evaluation method provides a feasible scheme for rural highway maintenance quality evaluation

Extension Multi-factorial Evaluation Method on Water Quality Early-warning

Extension multi-factorial evaluation method was used in water quality early-earning in Yincungang River based on MATLAB. The results showed that water quality in summer was safe,while that in other three seasons were in pre-warning state with the order of winter > spring > autumn.

Neural Network Based Multi-level Fuzzy Evaluation Model for Mechanical Kinematic Scheme

To implement a quantificational evaluation for mechanical kinematic scheme more effectively,a multi-level and multi-objective evaluation model is presented using neural network and fuzzy theory. Firstly,the structure of evaluation model is constructed according to evaluation indicator system. Then evaluation samples are generated and provided to train this model. Thus it can reflect the relation between attributive value and evaluation result,as well as the weight of evaluation indicator. Once evaluation indicators of each candidate are fuzzily quantified and fed into the trained network model,the corresponding evaluation result is outputted and the best alternative can be selected. Under this model,expert knowledge can be effectively acquired and expressed,and the quantificational evaluation can be implemented for kinematic scheme with multi-level evaluation indicator system. Several key problems on this model are discussed and an illustration has demonstrated that this model is feasible and can be regarded as a new idea for solving kinematic scheme evaluation.

Evaluation of Public Satisfaction on Landscape Water in Weihe Park

By introducing the public satisfaction theory,the 4-grade evaluation index system of public satisfaction was established on the basis of the public attitude towards waterscape project of Weihe Park as well as other research fruits.Questionnaires were designed and handed out to 196 respondents to investigate psychological status of the public.Then extension evaluation was adopted to figure out the public satisfaction,and the results showed that 86.46% of the respondents were more satisfied with the project.Therefore,citizens of Baoji City held a positive attitude towards the waterscape project of Weihe Park.

Application of Matter-element Model in Soil Nutrient Evaluation of Ecological Fragile Region

On the basis of the soil environment investigation in Da＇an City, Jilin Province, China, 40 soil samples from main land use types were obtained and tested by standard method. Soil organic matter （SOM）, total N （TN）, total P （TP）, total K （TK）, available N （AN）, available P （AP） and available K （AK） were chosen as the evaluation factors. A regional soil nutrient evaluation model was developed based on the matter-element model. The results show that the soil samples with nutrient grade Ⅱ-Ⅴ respectively account for 10%, 30%, 32.5% and 27.5%, and those with grade Ⅳ and Ⅴ account for 60% in all samples. The relationship between soil nutrients and land types indicates that the nutrients of farmland are relatively good, with 41.7% of soil samples with the nutrient grade Ⅳ and Ⅴ. The nutrients of saline-alkali land and sandy land are the worst, with 100% of soil samples with the nutrient grade IV and V. And the ratios of soil samples grade IV and V in grassland and wasteland are respectively 62.5 % and 54.55%. Generally speaking, the soil nutrients status in Da＇an City is poor, 60% of soil samples are in poor and extremely poor conditions, indicating that the soil has been severely eroded. Being a relatively superior evaluation method with more accurate resuits and spatial distribution consistency, matter-element analysis is more suitable for regional soil nutrient evaluation than previous models.

The Research on Safety Evaluation of High-pile Wharf Structure

Due to a combination of the sea erosion,the ship collision,the change of ground condition,the effect of alternative static and dynamic load and the material deterioration,the structure of high-pile wharf is easily damaged.Once the structure of high-pile wharf destroyed,it is bound to be a great threat to the safety of various facilities and personnel in the port.Given all of that,the multi-level comprehensive evaluation method based on the extension theory is proposed in this paper.Using this method to assess the safety of high-pile wharf structure,the reasonable advice on its maintenance and reinforcement can be given in time.What’s more,the method is simple and can give more objective result of the evaluation.

Extension Study on Electricity Market of Power Plant Investment Environment

When the global electricity industry has reorganized the structure and introduced competitive market mechanism world widely, China is no exception. Since 2002, “Electricity System Reform Program” was enacted. The mode of the State Power Corporation was divided. It means China's electricity market steps into the mode of Wholesale Competition. The meaning of the evaluation of power plant investment decision is to provide references for the market members when they made the decisions through the comprehensive evaluation of internal performance of Power Plant and the external investment environment, therefore further optimizing the allocation of funds, avoiding the risks, pursuing maximize of the profits.

改扩建高速公路桥梁可用性评判与延寿准则

针对高速公路改扩建工程中既有桥梁是否能继续使用问题,综合考虑总体技术状况、承载力状况、剩余耐久年限状况3个层次,创建了以桥梁构件类别的外观耐久状态为一级指标、以剩余耐久年限为二级指标的评判方法,提出了表征构件剩余耐久年限的寿命系数和可用寿命系数,建立了既有桥梁的延寿准则和延寿策略,探讨了可用寿命系数与目标使用年限、单次延寿的有效保护年限、拟采取的维护措施类型数量的相互关系。以京沪高速改扩建工程为研究背景,选取9座既有桥梁为典型桥梁,按100 a目标使用年限,计算得到构件主筋和箍筋的剩余耐久年限,给出了典型桥梁主体构件剩余耐久年限。根据可用评判方法,计算得到了在相同延寿措施下的延寿年限、延寿费用及可用寿命系数,按经济最优原则提出了从A级到E级共计5种延寿方式。研究表明,京沪高速改扩建工程典型桥梁按箍筋计算得到构件耐久寿命比按主筋计算值低,建议构件年限按箍筋计算值取用;目标使用年限为100 a时,主梁构件可正常使用比例为94%,墩柱单元、盖梁单元、桥台单元的可正常使用比例分别为67%,11%,44%。实际工程表明,采用该评判方法的评判结果与结构实际状态基本相符,与工程实际采取的处置措施基本相当,验证了该方法的合理性。

基于博弈-可拓云的地铁-常规公交换乘服务评价

为了解决地铁与常规公交换乘服务评价方法的单一性和滞后性等问题,提出一种博弈-可拓云组合模型。结合“全、简、精、实”四类原则构建评价指标体系,分别利用层次分析法、CRITIC法、博弈论确定各项指标的主、客综合权重,并将数值代入可拓云模型实现二者的结合。以石家庄地铁为例,对辖区三条线路与常规公交间的换乘服务进行综合评价,结果显示:1、2、3号线的分数均处于[70,90)范围内,属于良好等级。评价结果与该市地铁-常规公交的运营现状相符,验证了组合模型的可行性与普适性,该结果对科学制定精准化的公共交通换乘服务政策提供参考。

基于组合赋权-可拓云的城市轨道交通线路运营安全评价

为解决城市轨道交通运营安全评价指标缺乏时效性和部分安全评价模型忽略评价等级的模糊界限等问题,重新构建城市轨道交通线路的运营安全评价指标体系,包括员工对传染性疾病防控措施的执行力度、相关单位的配合程度、防控设备的完备程度等新指标;其次运用基于离差最小化的最优最劣法(BWM)和反熵权法对各指标进行组合赋权;然后应用可拓云确定城市轨道交通线路运营安全评价等级;最后以上海地铁17号线为例进行实例分析。结果表明:上海地铁17号线运营安全评价各指标的各级云关联度低于0.5且置信度高于0.99,其中,人员因素、线路因素、管理因素的置信度均为1,仅设备因素的置信度为0.998;结合每个二级指标的灵敏度值分析,得出车站运营设备的可靠性对线路实际运营安全影响最大;在实际运营中,乘客对车站传染性疾病防控的配合程度越高,对综合评价的提升也越大;该评价指标体系和评价模型能够准确地反映城市轨道交通线路运营安全水平,且更加适用于目前城市轨道交通线路的运营情况。

基于前因因素的建筑工人安全行为评价模型与应用

建筑项目中的事故主要与建筑工人的不安全行为有关,因此对建筑工人安全行为进行事前评价是预防事故发生的关键。首先通过文献可视化分析初步筛选建筑工人安全行为前因因素,结合专家意见构建建筑工人安全行为评价的指标体系;然后采用群决策改进的层次分析法确定各评价指标的综合权重,并建立可拓物元评价模型;最后对某施工项目建筑工人安全行为进行评价与分析,以验证模型的合理性和可靠性。结果表明:建筑工人安全行为评价指标中安全意识所占权重较高,是事故预防的重要因素;实例应用结果表明该项目建筑工人总体安全行为等级处于“Ⅲ级”为一般安全,说明该项目施工作业人员整体处于比较安全的水平;建筑工人个体安全行为的维度指标评价结果为正态分布或偏正态分布,表明该评价模型能够有效识别建筑工人的安全行为水平,可为建筑安全管理的研究和实践提供参考。

集成可拓学工具的裁剪创新方法研究

为降低裁剪过程中主观影响元件裁剪顺序的程度,减少裁剪后寻找替代资源的随机性,通过建立待改进产品的功能模型,确定产生负面作用的负面元件,引入可拓学中的优度评价方法计算负面元件的裁剪顺序。根据裁剪规则定义,对替代资源的来源进行分类,并根据分类求解方案。若替代资源来自现有系统内部,则分配有用功能,将寻找替代解的过程转化为矛盾问题求解过程;若替代资源来自现有系统外部,则利用发散分析、可拓变换等工具寻找替代解。将可拓学中的优度评价、发散分析、矛盾问题求解方法融合到裁剪方法中,增强了裁剪元件选择的客观性,为寻找替代资源提供了方向。以剥线机为例对产品进行改进,验证了所提方法的有效性,为可拓学与裁剪方法结合提供了新思路。

大学生创新创业能力评价体系构建与培养路径优化研究

对大学生创新创业能力结构的合理构成及其掌握程度的有效度量,不仅是大学生创新创业评价的内在要求,也是高校有效指导学生进行创新创业实践的客观需要。通过文献分析和专家访谈,提炼出大学生创新创业能力特征要素,基于可拓学理论,建立可拓物元模型,构建能力评价体系并加以验证。评价指标体系中,设置一级指标3个,二级指标12个,结合调查问卷开展实证研究,在此基础上对大学生创新创业能力培养策略进行分析,优化能力提升培养路径,为高校创新创业教育实践提供有价值的参考。

CFSv2模式对汛期黑龙江省延伸期时段降水预测检验评估

利用1999-2010年CFSv2模式资料,基于国家气候中心Ps和Cs检验方法,对汛期黑龙江省延伸期时段降水趋势和过程进行检验评估。结果发现:模式预测6月延伸期降水趋势效果较差,但从7月上旬开始至8月中旬模式预测技巧明显提高,Ps评分基本通过65分,距平符号一致率也达到50%以上。模式预测延伸期降水过程效果较好的时间为6月上旬、7月上旬、7月下旬和8月中旬,预测降水日数准确率在20%以上。预测结论可以为业务中延伸期降水预测提供参考依据。

长江中游护滩服役状态评价体系

随着长江航道建设的快速发展,维护管理好在役的航道整治建筑物成为一项重要工作。目前国内针对长江中常见的航道整治建筑物——护滩服役状态的相关研究较少。基于考虑指标模糊性的可拓云理论,建立护滩服役状态评价模型。依据监测信息、护滩历年维护经验和相关规范,构建了评价指标体系,并结合序关系法和熵权法,综合确定指标权重,经模型计算可以得到护滩所隶属的服役状态等级。将该模型应用于长江中游新九水道护滩服役状态评估,评价结果与工程实际情况吻合。验证表明,本文所建立的护滩服役状态评价模型可以正确识别护滩服役状态,指导护滩日常维护工作,推进长江航道养护智能化。

基于物元可拓法的住宅工程质量潜在缺陷保险费率厘定研究

以住宅工程为研究对象,分析影响IDI费率的因素,将其分为项目与保险自身特性、参与方综合能力和工程建设各阶段质量潜在缺陷风险三方面,并据此建立了三级57个指标的评价体系,采用G1-CVA-MIE法计算指标权重,运用物元可拓法对指标划分等级。根据评价结果确定基本费率和调整系数,确定二者之积的值即为纯保险费率。通过案例验证了模型的可行性,并对投保人、承保人和政府提出建议,以期为我国IDI费率厘定提供新的思路框架。

基于物元可拓模型的工商管理类专业人才胜任力评价研究

结合工商管理类专业人才胜任力的特点,首先从个人能力、通用能力、专业能力和发展能力四个方面建立工商管理类专业人才胜任力评价指标体系,并运用AHP-熵值法确定各指标的组合权重,接着利用物元可拓理论构建工商管理类专业人才胜任力评价模型,最后对湖南财政经济学院工商管理类专业人才胜任力进行综合评价。

考虑生态限制的内河港口岸线等级评价研究

为明晰港口岸线的优劣情况,给港口开发及整合提供参考,提出了一种考虑生态限制条件的港口岸线等级评价方法。首先,选取自然条件、社会经济、交通发展等3个方面的12个指标,借助物元可拓模型进行港口岸线资源等级初评。然后,以生态限制条件为减分因素对初评结果进行修正,得出岸线等级可划分为4类:一级规划岸线、二级规划岸线、三级规划岸线、四级规划岸线。其中,一级规划岸线最适宜建设深水港,二级规划岸线适宜建港,三级规划岸线和四级规划岸线不宜建港。最后,基于长江重庆段五段不同岸线的数据进行案例分析,分析结果表明:评价结果与实际情况基本一致;改进的等级评价指标、定性定量相结合的方法能够提高评价结果的准确性;将生态因素作为限制条件从综合评价中独立出来进行等级结果修正能够有效避免岸线开发利用时侵占生态资源。

软件系统设计方案的多属性可拓评估模型研究

软件系统设计方案涉及多方面的影响因素,设计方案选型更是一项复杂的决策分析过程。针对选型过程中的决策问题,文章提出了一种多属性可拓评估模型。首先通过给出软件系统设计方案评价指标的选取原则,建立软件系统设计方案评价指标体系,并对不同类型的评价指标进行规范化处理,然后建立相应的可拓关联度的计算模型,最后基于可拓关联度的大小获得最优设计方案。