Towards trustworthy multi-modal motion prediction:Holistic evaluation and interpretability of outputs

Predicting the motion of other road agents enables autonomous vehicles to perform safe and efficient path planning.This task is very complex,as the behaviour of road agents depends on many factors and the number of possible future trajectories can be consid-erable(multi-modal).Most prior approaches proposed to address multi-modal motion prediction are based on complex machine learning systems that have limited interpret-ability.Moreover,the metrics used in current benchmarks do not evaluate all aspects of the problem,such as the diversity and admissibility of the output.The authors aim to advance towards the design of trustworthy motion prediction systems,based on some of the re-quirements for the design of Trustworthy Artificial Intelligence.The focus is on evaluation criteria,robustness,and interpretability of outputs.First,the evaluation metrics are comprehensively analysed,the main gaps of current benchmarks are identified,and a new holistic evaluation framework is proposed.Then,a method for the assessment of spatial and temporal robustness is introduced by simulating noise in the perception system.To enhance the interpretability of the outputs and generate more balanced results in the proposed evaluation framework,an intent prediction layer that can be attached to multi-modal motion prediction models is proposed.The effectiveness of this approach is assessed through a survey that explores different elements in the visualisation of the multi-modal trajectories and intentions.The proposed approach and findings make a significant contribution to the development of trustworthy motion prediction systems for autono-mous vehicles,advancing the field towards greater safety and reliability.

Multi-dimension and multi-modal rolling mill vibration prediction model based on multi-level network fusion

Mill vibration is a common problem in rolling production,which directly affects the thickness accuracy of the strip and may even lead to strip fracture accidents in serious cases.The existing vibration prediction models do not consider the features contained in the data,resulting in limited improvement of model accuracy.To address these challenges,this paper proposes a multi-dimensional multi-modal cold rolling vibration time series prediction model(MDMMVPM)based on the deep fusion of multi-level networks.In the model,the long-term and short-term modal features of multi-dimensional data are considered,and the appropriate prediction algorithms are selected for different data features.Based on the established prediction model,the effects of tension and rolling force on mill vibration are analyzed.Taking the 5th stand of a cold mill in a steel mill as the research object,the innovative model is applied to predict the mill vibration for the first time.The experimental results show that the correlation coefficient(R^(2))of the model proposed in this paper is 92.5%,and the root-mean-square error(RMSE)is 0.0011,which significantly improves the modeling accuracy compared with the existing models.The proposed model is also suitable for the hot rolling process,which provides a new method for the prediction of strip rolling vibration.

Enhanced permeability prediction in porous media using particle swarm optimization with multi-source integration

Accurately and efficiently predicting the permeability of porous media is essential for addressing a wide range of hydrogeological issues.However,the complexity of porous media often limits the effectiveness of individual prediction methods.This study introduces a novel Particle Swarm Optimization-based Permeability Integrated Prediction model(PSO-PIP),which incorporates a particle swarm optimization algorithm enhanced with dy-namic clustering and adaptive parameter tuning(KGPSO).The model integrates multi-source data from the Lattice Boltzmann Method(LBM),Pore Network Modeling(PNM),and Finite Difference Method(FDM).By assigning optimal weight coefficients to the outputs of these methods,the model minimizes deviations from actual values and enhances permeability prediction performance.Initially,the computational performances of the LBM,PNM,and FDM are comparatively analyzed on datasets consisting of sphere packings and real rock samples.It is observed that these methods exhibit computational biases in certain permeability ranges.The PSOPIP model is proposed to combine the strengths of each computational approach and mitigate their limitations.The PSO-PIP model consistently produces predictions that are highly congruent with actual permeability values across all prediction intervals,significantly enhancing prediction accuracy.The outcomes of this study provide a new tool and perspective for the comprehensive,rapid,and accurate prediction of permeability in porous media.

An integrated modeling method for prediction of sulfur content in agglomerate

Based on the idea of fusing modeling, an integrated prediction model for sintering process was proposed. A framework for sulfur content prediction was established, which integrated multi modeling ways together, including mathematical model combined with neural network(NN), rule model based on empirical knowledge and model-choosing coordinator. Via metallurgic mechanism analysis and material balance computation, a mathematical model calculated the sulfur content in agglomerate by the material balance equation with some parameters predicted by NN method. In the other model, the relationship between sulfur content and key factors was described in the form of expert rules. The model-choosing coordinator based on fuzzy logic was introduced to decide the weight of result of each model according to process conditions. The model was tested by industrial application data and produced a relatively satisfactory prediction error. The model also preferably reflected the varying tendency of sulfur content in agglomerate as the evidence of its prediction performance.

Optimal dispatching method for integrated energy system based on robust economic model predictive control considering source-load power interval prediction

Effective source-load prediction and reasonable dispatching are crucial to realize the economic and reliable operations of integrated energy systems(IESs).They can overcome the challenges introduced by the uncertainties of new energies and various types of loads in the IES.Accordingly,a robust optimal dispatching method for the IES based on a robust economic model predictive control(REMPC)strategy considering source-load power interval prediction is proposed.First,an operation model of the IES is established,and an interval prediction model based on the bidirectional long short-term memory network optimized by beetle antenna search and bootstrap is formulated and applied to predict the photovoltaic power and the cooling,heating,and electrical loads.Then,an optimal dispatching scheme based on REMPC is devised for the IES.The source-load interval prediction results are used to improve the robustness of the REPMC and reduce the influence of source-load uncertainties on dispatching.An actual IES case is selected to conduct simulations;the results show that compared with other prediction techniques,the proposed method has higher prediction interval coverage probability and prediction interval normalized averaged width.Moreover,the operational cost of the IES is decreased by the REMPC strategy.With the devised dispatching scheme,the ability of the IES to handle the dispatching risk caused by prediction errors is enhanced.Improved dispatching robustness and operational economy are also achieved.

Integrated Reservoir Prediction and Oil-Gas Evaluation in the Maoshan Area

The Maoshan area is an area with well-developed igneous rocks and complex structures. The thickness of the reservoirs is generally small. The study of the reservoirs is based on seismic data, logging data and geological data. Using techniques and software such as Voxelgeo, BCI, RM, DFM and AP, the authors have made a comprehensive analysis of the lateral variation of reservoir parameters in the Upper Shazu bed of the third member of the Palaeogene Funing Formation, and compiled the thickness map of the Shazu bed. Also, with the data from ANN, BCI and the abstracting method for seismic characteristic parameters in combination with the structural factors, the authors have tried the multi-parameter and multi-method prediction of petroleum, delineated the potential oil and gas areas and proposed two well sites. The prediction of oil and gas for Well JB2 turns out to be quite successful.

Cloud Resource Integrated Prediction Model Based on Variational Modal Decomposition-Permutation Entropy and LSTM

Predicting the usage of container cloud resources has always been an important and challenging problem in improving the performance of cloud resource clusters.We proposed an integrated prediction method of stacking container cloud resources based on variational modal decomposition(VMD)-Permutation entropy(PE)and long short-term memory(LSTM)neural network to solve the prediction difficulties caused by the non-stationarity and volatility of resource data.The variational modal decomposition algorithm decomposes the time series data of cloud resources to obtain intrinsic mode function and residual components,which solves the signal decomposition algorithm’s end-effect and modal confusion problems.The permutation entropy is used to evaluate the complexity of the intrinsic mode function,and the reconstruction based on similar entropy and low complexity is used to reduce the difficulty of modeling.Finally,we use the LSTM and stacking fusion models to predict and superimpose;the stacking integration model integrates Gradient boosting regression(GBR),Kernel ridge regression(KRR),and Elastic net regression(ENet)as primary learners,and the secondary learner adopts the kernel ridge regression method with solid generalization ability.The Amazon public data set experiment shows that compared with Holt-winters,LSTM,and Neuralprophet models,we can see that the optimization range of multiple evaluation indicators is 0.338∼1.913,0.057∼0.940,0.000∼0.017 and 1.038∼8.481 in root means square error(RMSE),mean absolute error(MAE),mean absolute percentage error(MAPE)and variance(VAR),showing its stability and better prediction accuracy.

Prediction of stiffener buckling in press bend forming of integral panels

In order to predict the buckling of stiffeners in the press bend forming of the integral panel,a method for solving the critical buckling load of the stiffeners in press bend forming process was proposed based on energy method,elastic-plastic mechanics and numerical analysis.Bend to buckle experiments were carried out on the designed press bend dies.It is found that the predicted results based on the proposed method agree well with the experimental results.With the proposed method,the buckling of the stiffeners in press bend forming of the aluminum alloy integral panels with high-stiffener can be predicted reasonably.

An integrated method of selecting environmental covariates for predictive soil depth mapping

Environmental covariates are the basis of predictive soil mapping.Their selection determines the performance of soil mapping to a great extent,especially in cases where the number of soil samples is limited but soil spatial heterogeneity is high.In this study,we proposed an integrated method to select environmental covariates for predictive soil depth mapping.First,candidate variables that may influence the development of soil depth were selected based on pedogenetic knowledge.Second,three conventional methods(Pearson correlation analysis(PsCA),generalized additive models(GAMs),and Random Forest(RF))were used to generate optimal combinations of environmental covariates.Finally,three optimal combinations were integrated to produce a final combination based on the importance and occurrence frequency of each environmental covariate.We tested this method for soil depth mapping in the upper reaches of the Heihe River Basin in Northwest China.A total of 129 soil sampling sites were collected using a representative sampling strategy,and RF and support vector machine(SVM)models were used to map soil depth.The results showed that compared to the set of environmental covariates selected by the three conventional selection methods,the set of environmental covariates selected by the proposed method achieved higher mapping accuracy.The combination from the proposed method obtained a root mean square error(RMSE)of 11.88 cm,which was 2.25–7.64 cm lower than the other methods,and an R^2 value of 0.76,which was 0.08–0.26 higher than the other methods.The results suggest that our method can be used as an alternative to the conventional methods for soil depth mapping and may also be effective for mapping other soil properties.

Optimization Control of Multi-Mode Coupling All-Wheel Drive System for Hybrid Vehicle

The all-wheel drive(AWD)hybrid system is a research focus on high-performance new energy vehicles that can meet the demands of dynamic performance and passing ability.Simultaneous optimization of the power and economy of hybrid vehicles becomes an issue.A unique multi-mode coupling(MMC)AWD hybrid system is presented to realize the distributed and centralized driving of the front and rear axles to achieve vectored distribution and full utilization of the system power between the axles of vehicles.Based on the parameters of the benchmarking model of a hybrid vehicle,the best model-predictive control-based energy management strategy is proposed.First,the drive system model was built after the analysis of the MMC-AWD’s drive modes.Next,three fundamental strategies were established to address power distribution adjustment and battery SOC maintenance when the SOC changed,which was followed by the design of a road driving force observer.Then,the energy consumption rate in the average time domain was processed before designing the minimum fuel consumption controller based on the equivalent fuel consumption coefficient.Finally,the advantage of the MMC-AWD was confirmed by comparison with the dynamic performance and economy of the BYD Song PLUS DMI-AWD.The findings indicate that,in comparison to the comparative hybrid system at road adhesion coefficients of 0.8 and 0.6,the MMC-AWD’s capacity to accelerate increases by 5.26%and 7.92%,respectively.When the road adhesion coefficient is 0.8,0.6,and 0.4,the maximum climbing ability increases by 14.22%,12.88%,and 4.55%,respectively.As a result,the dynamic performance is greatly enhanced,and the fuel savings rate per 100 km of mileage reaches 12.06%,which is also very economical.The proposed control strategies for the new hybrid AWD vehicle can optimize the power and economy simultaneously.

Multi-modal Gesture Recognition using Integrated Model of Motion, Audio and Video

Gesture recognition is used in many practical applications such as human-robot interaction, medical rehabilitation and sign language. With increasing motion sensor development, multiple data sources have become available, which leads to the rise of multi-modal gesture recognition. Since our previous approach to gesture recognition depends on a unimodal system, it is difficult to classify similar motion patterns. In order to solve this problem, a novel approach which integrates motion, audio and video models is proposed by using dataset captured by Kinect. The proposed system can recognize observed gestures by using three models. Recognition results of three models are integrated by using the proposed framework and the output becomes the final result. The motion and audio models are learned by using Hidden Markov Model. Random Forest which is the video classifier is used to learn the video model. In the experiments to test the performances of the proposed system, the motion and audio models most suitable for gesture recognition are chosen by varying feature vectors and learning methods. Additionally, the unimodal and multi-modal models are compared with respect to recognition accuracy. All the experiments are conducted on dataset provided by the competition organizer of MMGRC, which is a workshop for Multi-Modal Gesture Recognition Challenge. The comparison results show that the multi-modal model composed of three models scores the highest recognition rate. This improvement of recognition accuracy means that the complementary relationship among three models improves the accuracy of gesture recognition. The proposed system provides the application technology to understand human actions of daily life more precisely.

Design and Analysis of Integrated Predictive Iterative Learning Control for Batch Process Based on Two-dimensional System Theory

Based on the two-dimensional （2D） system theory, an integrated predictive iterative learning control （2D-IPILC） strategy for batch processes is presented. First, the output response and the error transition model predictions along the batch index can be calculated analytically due to the 2D Roesser model of the batch process. Then, an integrated framework of combining iterative learning control （ILC） and model predictive control （MPC） is formed reasonably. The output of feedforward ILC is estimated on the basis of the predefined process 2D model. By min- imizing a quadratic objective function, the feedback MPC is introduced to obtain better control performance for tracking problem of batch processes. Simulations on a typical batch reactor demonstrate that the satisfactory tracking performance as well as faster convergence speed can be achieved than traditional proportion type （P- t-we） ILC despite the model error and disturbances.

Predictive Decision and Reliable Accessing for UAV Communication in Space-Air-Ground Integrated Networks

The cooperation of multiple Unmanned Aerial Vehicles(UAVs) has become a promising scenario in Space-Air-Ground Integrated Networks(SAGINs) recently due to their widespread applications,where wireless communication is a basic necessity and is normally categorized into control and nonpayload communication(CNPC) as well as payload communication. In this paper, we attempt to tackle two challenges of UAV communication respectively on establishing reliable CNPC links against the high mobility of UAVs as well as changeable communication conditions, and on offering dynamic resource optimization for Quality-of-Service(QoS) guaranteed payload communication with variable link connectivity. Firstly, we propose the concept of air controlling center(ACC), a virtual application equipped on the infrastructure in SAGINs, which can collect global information for estimating UAV trajectory and communication channels. We then introduce the knapsack problem for modelling resource optimization of UAV communication in order to provide optimal access points for both CNPC and payload communication. Meanwhile, using the air controlling information, predictive decision algorithm and handover strategy are introduced for the reliable connection with multiple access points. Simulation results demonstrate that our proposal ensures an approximate always-on reliable accessing of communication links and outperforms the existing methods against high mobility,sparse distribution, and physical obstacles.

Short-term displacement prediction for newly established monitoring slopes based on transfer learning

This study makes a significant progress in addressing the challenges of short-term slope displacement prediction in the Universal Landslide Monitoring Program,an unprecedented disaster mitigation program in China,where lots of newly established monitoring slopes lack sufficient historical deformation data,making it difficult to extract deformation patterns and provide effective predictions which plays a crucial role in the early warning and forecasting of landslide hazards.A slope displacement prediction method based on transfer learning is therefore proposed.Initially,the method transfers the deformation patterns learned from slopes with relatively rich deformation data by a pre-trained model based on a multi-slope integrated dataset to newly established monitoring slopes with limited or even no useful data,thus enabling rapid and efficient predictions for these slopes.Subsequently,as time goes on and monitoring data accumulates,fine-tuning of the pre-trained model for individual slopes can further improve prediction accuracy,enabling continuous optimization of prediction results.A case study indicates that,after being trained on a multi-slope integrated dataset,the TCN-Transformer model can efficiently serve as a pretrained model for displacement prediction at newly established monitoring slopes.The three-day average RMSE is significantly reduced by 34.6%compared to models trained only on individual slope data,and it also successfully predicts the majority of deformation peaks.The fine-tuned model based on accumulated data on the target newly established monitoring slope further reduced the three-day RMSE by 37.2%,demonstrating a considerable predictive accuracy.In conclusion,taking advantage of transfer learning,the proposed slope displacement prediction method effectively utilizes the available data,which enables the rapid deployment and continual refinement of displacement predictions on newly established monitoring slopes.

Multiple sclerosis：integration of modeling with biology,clinical and imaging measures to provide better monitoring of disease progression and prediction of outcome

Multiple Sclerosis（MS） is a major cause of neurological disability in adults and has an annual cost of approximately $28 billion in the United States. MS is a very complex disorder as demyelination can happen in a variety of locations throughout the brain; therefore, this disease is never the same in two patients making it very hard to predict disease progression. A modeling approach which combines clinical, biological and imaging measures to help treat and fight this disorder is needed. In this paper, I will outline MS as a very heterogeneous disorder, review some potential solutions from the literature, demonstrate the need for a biomarker and will discuss how computational modeling combined with biological, clinical and imaging data can help link disparate observations and decipher complex mechanisms whose solutions are not amenable to simple reductionism.

Application of probability integral method in ground deformation prediction

In order to study the law of mining subsidence and ground movement, to provide the basis of coal mining under building, railway and water, we used the probability integration method to make comprehensive evaluation of ground stability. Take Yingcheng Coal Mine of Jiutai as an example. Mining-induced movement and horizontal movement are analyzed on the basis of the measurement data. The resuhs of prediction can pro- vide reference and basis for prevention of coal mining subsidence and future restoration and treatment.

Robust Symmetry Prediction with Multi-Modal Feature Fusion for Partial Shapes

In geometry processing,symmetry research benefits from global geo-metric features of complete shapes,but the shape of an object captured in real-world applications is often incomplete due to the limited sensor resolution,single viewpoint,and occlusion.Different from the existing works predicting symmetry from the complete shape,we propose a learning approach for symmetry predic-tion based on a single RGB-D image.Instead of directly predicting the symmetry from incomplete shapes,our method consists of two modules,i.e.,the multi-mod-al feature fusion module and the detection-by-reconstruction module.Firstly,we build a channel-transformer network(CTN)to extract cross-fusion features from the RGB-D as the multi-modal feature fusion module,which helps us aggregate features from the color and the depth separately.Then,our self-reconstruction net-work based on a 3D variational auto-encoder(3D-VAE)takes the global geo-metric features as input,followed by a prediction symmetry network to detect the symmetry.Our experiments are conducted on three public datasets:ShapeNet,YCB,and ScanNet,we demonstrate that our method can produce reliable and accurate results.

Combined migration velocity model-building and its application in tunnel seismic prediction

We propose a combined migration velocity analysis and imaging method based on Kirchhoff integral migration and reverse time migration,using the residual curvature analysis and layer stripping strategy to build the velocity model.This method improves the image resolution of Kirchhoff integral migration and reduces the computations of the reverse time migration.It combines the advantages of efficiency and accuracy of the two migration methods.Its application in tunnel seismic prediction shows good results.Numerical experiments show that the imaging results of reverse time migration are better than the imaging results of Kirchhoff integral migration in many aspects of tunnel prediction.Field data show that this method has efficient computations and can establish a reasonable velocity model and a high quality imaging section.Combination with geological information can make an accurate prediction of the front of the tunnel geological structure.

Integrated approach to colorectal anastomotic leakage: Communication, infection and healing disturbances

Colorectal anastomotic leakage(CAL) remains a major complication after colorectal surgery. Despite all efforts during the last decades, the incidence of CAL has not decreased. In this review, we summarize the available strategies regarding prevention, prediction and intervention of CAL and categorize them into three categories: communication, infection and healing disturbances. These three major factors actively interact during the onset of CAL. We aim to provide an integrated approach to CAL based on its etiology. The intraoperative air leak test, intraoperative endoscopy, radiological examinations and stoma construction mainly aim to detect and to prevent communication between the intra- and extra-luminal content. Other strategies including postoperative drainage, antibiotics, and infectious-parameter evaluation are intended to detect and prevent anastomotic or peritoneal infection. Most currently available interventions for CAL focus on the control of communication and infection, while strategies targeting the healing disturbances such as lifestyle changes, oxygen therapy and evaluation of metabolic biomarkers still lack wide clinical application. This simplified categorization may contribute to an integrated understanding of CAL. We strongly believe that this integrated approach should be taken into consideration during clinical practice. An integrated approach to CAL could contribute to a better understanding of the etiology of CAL and eventually better patient outcome.