A Bayesian multi-model inference methodology for imprecise momentindependent global sensitivity analysis of rock structures

Traditional global sensitivity analysis(GSA)neglects the epistemic uncertainties associated with the probabilistic characteristics(i.e.type of distribution type and its parameters)of input rock properties emanating due to the small size of datasets while mapping the relative importance of properties to the model response.This paper proposes an augmented Bayesian multi-model inference(BMMI)coupled with GSA methodology(BMMI-GSA)to address this issue by estimating the imprecision in the momentindependent sensitivity indices of rock structures arising from the small size of input data.The methodology employs BMMI to quantify the epistemic uncertainties associated with model type and parameters of input properties.The estimated uncertainties are propagated in estimating imprecision in moment-independent Borgonovo’s indices by employing a reweighting approach on candidate probabilistic models.The proposed methodology is showcased for a rock slope prone to stress-controlled failure in the Himalayan region of India.The proposed methodology was superior to the conventional GSA(neglects all epistemic uncertainties)and Bayesian coupled GSA(B-GSA)(neglects model uncertainty)due to its capability to incorporate the uncertainties in both model type and parameters of properties.Imprecise Borgonovo’s indices estimated via proposed methodology provide the confidence intervals of the sensitivity indices instead of their fixed-point estimates,which makes the user more informed in the data collection efforts.Analyses performed with the varying sample sizes suggested that the uncertainties in sensitivity indices reduce significantly with the increasing sample sizes.The accurate importance ranking of properties was only possible via samples of large sizes.Further,the impact of the prior knowledge in terms of prior ranges and distributions was significant;hence,any related assumption should be made carefully.

A Scalable Adaptive Approach to Multi-Vehicle Formation Control with Obstacle Avoidance

This paper deals with the problem of distributed formation tracking control and obstacle avoidance of multivehicle systems(MVSs)in complex obstacle-laden environments.The MVS under consideration consists of a leader vehicle with an unknown control input and a group of follower vehicles,connected via a directed interaction topology,subject to simultaneous unknown heterogeneous nonlinearities and external disturbances.The central aim is to achieve effective and collisionfree formation tracking control for the nonlinear and uncertain MVS with obstacles encountered in formation maneuvering,while not demanding global information of the interaction topology.Toward this goal,a radial basis function neural network is used to model the unknown nonlinearity of vehicle dynamics in each vehicle and repulsive potentials are employed for obstacle avoidance.Furthermore,a scalable distributed adaptive formation tracking control protocol with a built-in obstacle avoidance mechanism is developed.It is proved that,with the proposed protocol,the resulting formation tracking errors are uniformly ultimately bounded and obstacle collision avoidance is guaranteed.Comprehensive simulation results are elaborated to substantiate the effectiveness and the promising collision avoidance performance of the proposed scalable adaptive formation control approach.

Consensus of multi-vehicle cooperative attack with stochastic multi-hop time-varying delay and actuator fault

A consensus-distributed fault-tolerant(CDFT)control law is proposed for a class of leader-following multi-vehicle cooperative attack(MVCA)systems in this paper.In particular,the switching communication topologies,stochastic multi-hop timevarying delays,and actuator faults are considered,which may lead to system performance degradation or on certain occasions even cause system instability.Firstly,the estimator of actuator faults for the following vehicle is designed to identify the actuator faults under a fixed topology.Then the CDFT control protocol and trajectory following error are derived by the relevant content of Lyapunov stability theory,the graph theory,and the matrix theory.The CDFT control protocol is proposed in the same manner,where a more realistic scenario is considered,in which the maximum trajectory following error and information on the switching topologies during the cooperative attack are available.Finally,numerical simulation are carried out to indicate that the proposed distributed fault-tolerant(DFT)control law is effective.

A Multi-Vehicle, Multi-Factory Assignment Problem: A Case of Coca-Cola Bottling Company at Ahinsan and Spintex-Ghana

Determining the type of vehicles to transport goods between multiple factories and numerous distributors with different demands is one of the major logistic decisions that have to be made by industry players to reduce the cost of operations. A Mixed-Integer Quadratic Programming (MIQP) model was used to optimally distribute goods to 105 distributors from two factories across Ghana. The formulated model and analysis show that the existence of multiple vehicles in a fleet purposely for long hauling of goods also renders an optimal minimum cost as compared to a single-vehicle fleet. This optimum minimum cost accounts for 0.2066 of the total cost incurred by the two factories. This resulted in a 25% reduction in transportation cost. Again, a single-vehicle fleet with loading capacity within the mean value of all individual demands gave a minimum cost next to the optimal minimum.

An Adaptive DDoS Detection and Classification Method in Blockchain Using an Integrated Multi-Models

With the rising adoption of blockchain technology due to its decentralized,secure,and transparent features,ensuring its resilience against network threats,especially Distributed Denial of Service(DDoS)attacks,is crucial.This research addresses the vulnerability of blockchain systems to DDoS assaults,which undermine their core decentralized characteristics,posing threats to their security and reliability.We have devised a novel adaptive integration technique for the detection and identification of varied DDoS attacks.To ensure the robustness and validity of our approach,a dataset amalgamating multiple DDoS attacks was derived from the CIC-DDoS2019 dataset.Using this,our methodology was applied to detect DDoS threats and further classify them into seven unique attack subcategories.To cope with the broad spectrum of DDoS attack variations,a holistic framework has been pro-posed that seamlessly integrates five machine learning models:Gate Recurrent Unit(GRU),Convolutional Neural Networks(CNN),Long-Short Term Memory(LSTM),Deep Neural Networks(DNN),and Support Vector Machine(SVM).The innovative aspect of our framework is the introduction of a dynamic weight adjustment mechanism,enhancing the system’s adaptability.Experimental results substantiate the superiority of our ensemble method in comparison to singular models across various evaluation metrics.The framework displayed remarkable accuracy,with rates reaching 99.71%for detection and 87.62%for classification tasks.By developing a comprehensive and adaptive methodology,this study paves the way for strengthening the defense mechanisms of blockchain systems against DDoS attacks.The ensemble approach,combined with the dynamic weight adjustment,offers promise in ensuring blockchain’s enduring security and trustworthiness.

Data Augmentation and Random Multi-Model Deep Learning for Data Classification

In the machine learning(ML)paradigm,data augmentation serves as a regularization approach for creating ML models.The increase in the diversification of training samples increases the generalization capabilities,which enhances the prediction performance of classifiers when tested on unseen examples.Deep learning(DL)models have a lot of parameters,and they frequently overfit.Effectively,to avoid overfitting,data plays a major role to augment the latest improvements in DL.Nevertheless,reliable data collection is a major limiting factor.Frequently,this problem is undertaken by combining augmentation of data,transfer learning,dropout,and methods of normalization in batches.In this paper,we introduce the application of data augmentation in the field of image classification using Random Multi-model Deep Learning(RMDL)which uses the association approaches of multi-DL to yield random models for classification.We present a methodology for using Generative Adversarial Networks(GANs)to generate images for data augmenting.Through experiments,we discover that samples generated by GANs when fed into RMDL improve both accuracy and model efficiency.Experimenting across both MNIST and CIAFAR-10 datasets show that,error rate with proposed approach has been decreased with different random models.

Assessment of Crop Yield in China Simulated by Thirteen Global Gridded Crop Models

Global gridded crop models(GGCMs) have been broadly applied to assess the impacts of climate and environmental change and adaptation on agricultural production. China is a major grain producing country, but thus far only a few studies have assessed the performance of GGCMs in China, and these studies mainly focused on the average and interannual variability of national and regional yields. Here, a systematic national-and provincial-scale evaluation of the simulations by13 GGCMs [12 from the GGCM Intercomparison(GGCMI) project, phase 1, and CLM5-crop] of the yields of four crops(wheat, maize, rice, and soybean) in China during 1980–2009 was carried out through comparison with crop yield statistics collected from the National Bureau of Statistics of China. Results showed that GGCMI models generally underestimate the national yield of rice but overestimate it for the other three crops, while CLM5-crop can reproduce the national yields of wheat, maize, and rice well. Most GGCMs struggle to simulate the spatial patterns of crop yields. In terms of temporal variability, GGCMI models generally fail to capture the observed significant increases, but some can skillfully simulate the interannual variability. Conversely, CLM5-crop can represent the increases in wheat, maize, and rice, but works less well in simulating the interannual variability. At least one model can skillfully reproduce the temporal variability of yields in the top-10 producing provinces in China, albeit with a few exceptions. This study, for the first time, provides a complete picture of GGCM performance in China, which is important for GGCM development and understanding the reliability and uncertainty of national-and provincial-scale crop yield prediction in China.

Assessing the Performance of a Dynamical Downscaling Simulation Driven by a Bias-Corrected CMIP6 Dataset for Asian Climate

In this study,we aim to assess dynamical downscaling simulations by utilizing a novel bias-corrected global climate model(GCM)data to drive a regional climate model(RCM)over the Asia-western North Pacific region.Three simulations were conducted with a 25-km grid spacing for the period 1980–2014.The first simulation(WRF_ERA5)was driven by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis 5(ERA5)dataset and served as the validation dataset.The original GCM dataset(MPI-ESM1-2-HR model)was used to drive the second simulation(WRF_GCM),while the third simulation(WRF_GCMbc)was driven by the bias-corrected GCM dataset.The bias-corrected GCM data has an ERA5-based mean and interannual variance and long-term trends derived from the ensemble mean of 18 CMIP6 models.Results demonstrate that the WRF_GCMbc significantly reduced the root-mean-square errors(RMSEs)of the climatological mean of downscaled variables,including temperature,precipitation,snow,wind,relative humidity,and planetary boundary layer height by 50%–90%compared to the WRF_GCM.Similarly,the RMSEs of interannual-tointerdecadal variances of downscaled variables were reduced by 30%–60%.Furthermore,the WRF_GCMbc better captured the annual cycle of the monsoon circulation and intraseasonal and day-to-day variabilities.The leading empirical orthogonal function(EOF)shows a monopole precipitation mode in the WRF_GCM.In contrast,the WRF_GCMbc successfully reproduced the observed tri-pole mode of summer precipitation over eastern China.This improvement could be attributed to a better-simulated location of the western North Pacific subtropical high in the WRF_GCMbc after GCM bias correction.

Statistical Downscaling for Multi-Model Ensemble Prediction of Summer Monsoon Rainfall in the Asia-Pacific Region Using Geopotential Height Field

The 21-yr ensemble predictions of model precipitation and circulation in the East Asian and western North Pacific （Asia-Pacific） summer monsoon region （0°-50°N, 100° 150°E） were evaluated in nine different AGCM, used in the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Climate Center （APCC） multi-model ensemble seasonal prediction system. The analysis indicates that the precipitation anomaly patterns of model ensemble predictions are substantially different from the observed counterparts in this region, but the summer monsoon circulations are reasonably predicted. For example, all models can well produce the interannual variability of the western North Pacific monsoon index （WNPMI） defined by 850 hPa winds, but they failed to predict the relationship between WNPMI and precipitation anomalies. The interannual variability of the 500 hPa geopotential height （GPH） can be well predicted by the models in contrast to precipitation anomalies. On the basis of such model performances and the relationship between the interannual variations of 500 hPa GPH and precipitation anomalies, we developed a statistical scheme used to downscale the summer monsoon precipitation anomaly on the basis of EOF and singular value decomposition （SVD）. In this scheme, the three leading EOF modes of 500 hPa GPH anomaly fields predicted by the models are firstly corrected by the linear regression between the principal components in each model and observation, respectively. Then, the corrected model GPH is chosen as the predictor to downscale the precipitation anomaly field, which is assembled by the forecasted expansion coefficients of model 500 hPa GPH and the three leading SVD modes of observed precipitation anomaly corresponding to the prediction of model 500 hPa GPH during a 19-year training period. The cross-validated forecasts suggest that this downscaling scheme may have a potential to improve the forecast skill of the precipitation anomaly in the South China Sea, western North Pacific and the East Asia Pacific regions, where the anomaly correlation coefficient （ACC） has been improved by 0.14, corresponding to the reduced RMSE of 10.4% in the conventional multi-model ensemble （MME） forecast.

Support vector machine-based multi-model predictive control

In this paper, a support vector machine-based multi-model predictive control is proposed, in which SVM classification combines well with SVM regression. At first, each working environment is modeled by SVM regression and the support vector machine network-based model predictive control （SVMN-MPC） algorithm corresponding to each environment is developed, and then a multi-class SVM model is established to recognize multiple operating conditions. As for control, the current environment is identified by the multi-class SVM model and then the corresponding SVMN-MPC controller is activated at each sampling instant. The proposed modeling, switching and controller design is demonstrated in simulation results.

Ensemble Simulation of Land Evapotranspiration in China Based on a Multi-Forcing and Multi-Model Approach

In order to reduce the uncertainty of offline land surface model （LSM） simulations of land evapotranspiration （ET）, we used ensemble simulations based on three meteorological forcing datasets [Princeton, ITPCAS （Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences）, Qian] and four LSMs （BATS, VIC, CLM3.0 and CLM3.5）, to explore the trends and spatiotemporal characteristics of ET, as well as the spatiotemporal pattern of ET in response to climate factors over China's Mainland during 1982-2007. The results showed that various simulations of each member and their arithmetic mean （EnsAVlean） could capture the spatial distribution and seasonal pattern of ET sufficiently well, where they exhibited more significant spatial and seasonal variation in the ET compared with observation-based ET estimates （Obs_MTE）. For the mean annual ET, we found that the BATS forced by Princeton forcing overestimated the annual mean ET compared with Obs_MTE for most of the basins in China, whereas the VIC forced by Princeton forcing showed underestimations. By contrast, the Ens_Mean was closer to Obs_MTE, although the results were underestimated over Southeast China. Furthermore, both the Obs_MTE and Ens_Mean exhibited a significant increasing trend during 1982-98; whereas after 1998, when the last big EI Nifio event occurred, the Ens_Mean tended to decrease significantly between 1999 and 2007, although the change was not significant for Obs_MTE. Changes in air temperature and shortwave radiation played key roles in the long-term variation in ET over the humid area of China, but precipitation mainly controlled the long-term variation in ET in arid and semi-arid areas of China.

Multi-model predictive control with local constraints based on model switching

Because model switching system is a typical form of Takagi-Sugeno（T-S） model which is an universal approximator of continuous nonlinear systems, we describe the model switching system as mixed logical dynamical （MLD） system and use it in model predictive control （MPC） in this paper. Considering that each local model is only valid in each local region,we add local constraints to local models. The stability of proposed multi-model predictive control （MMPC） algorithm is analyzed, and the performance of MMPC is also demonstrated on an inulti-multi-output（MIMO） simulated pH neutralization process.

Improving Multi-model Ensemble Probabilistic Prediction of Yangtze River Valley Summer Rainfall

Seasonal prediction of summer rainfall over the Yangtze River valley（YRV） is valuable for agricultural and industrial production and freshwater resource management in China, but remains a major challenge. Earlier multi-model ensemble（MME） prediction schemes for summer rainfall over China focus on single-value prediction, which cannot provide the necessary uncertainty information, while commonly-used ensemble schemes for probability density function（PDF） prediction are not adapted to YRV summer rainfall prediction. In the present study, an MME PDF prediction scheme is proposed based on the ENSEMBLES hindcasts. It is similar to the earlier Bayesian ensemble prediction scheme, but with optimization of ensemble members and a revision of the variance modeling of the likelihood function. The optimized ensemble members are regressed YRV summer rainfall with factors selected from model outputs of synchronous 500-h Pa geopotential height as predictors. The revised variance modeling of the likelihood function is a simple linear regression with ensemble spread as the predictor. The cross-validation skill of 1960–2002 YRV summer rainfall prediction shows that the new scheme produces a skillful PDF prediction, and is much better-calibrated, sharper, and more accurate than the earlier Bayesian ensemble and raw ensemble.

A Hybrid Neural Network Model for Marine Dissolved Oxygen Concentrations Time-Series Forecasting Based on Multi-Factor Analysis and a Multi-Model Ensemble

Dissolved oxygen(DO)is an important indicator of aquaculture,and its accurate forecasting can effectively improve the quality of aquatic products.In this paper,a new DO hybrid forecasting model is proposed that includes three stages:multi-factor analysis,adaptive decomposition,and an optimizationbased ensemble.First,considering the complex factors affecting DO,the grey relational(GR)degree method is used to screen out the environmental factors most closely related to DO.The consideration of multiple factors makes model fusion more effective.Second,the series of DO,water temperature,salinity,and oxygen saturation are decomposed adaptively into sub-series by means of the empirical wavelet transform(EWT)method.Then,five benchmark models are utilized to forecast the sub-series of EWT decomposition.The ensemble weights of these five sub-forecasting models are calculated by particle swarm optimization and gravitational search algorithm(PSOGSA).Finally,a multi-factor ensemble model for DO is obtained by weighted allocation.The performance of the proposed model is verified by timeseries data collected by the pacific islands ocean observing system(PacIOOS)from the WQB04 station at Hilo.The evaluation indicators involved in the experiment include the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency(NSE),Kling–Gupta efficiency(KGE),mean absolute percent error(MAPE),standard deviation of error(SDE),and coefficient of determination(R^(2)).Example analysis demonstrates that:①The proposed model can obtain excellent DO forecasting results;②the proposed model is superior to other comparison models;and③the forecasting model can be used to analyze the trend of DO and enable managers to make better management decisions.

A Bayesian Scheme for Probabilistic Multi-Model Ensemble Prediction of Summer Rainfall over the Yangtze River Valley

A Bayesian probabilistic prediction scheme of the Yangtze River Valley (YRV) summer rainfall is proposed to combine forecast information from multi-model ensemble dataset provided by ENSEMBLES project.Due to the low forecast skill of rainfall in dynamic models,the time series of regressed YRV summer rainfall are selected as ensemble members in the new scheme,instead of commonly-used YRV summer rainfall simulated by models.Each time series of regressed YRV summer rainfall is derived from a simple linear regression.The predictor in each simple linear regression is the skillfully simulated circulation or surface temperature factor which is highly linear with the observed YRV summer rainfall in the training set.The high correlation between the ensemble mean of these regressed YRV summer rainfall and observation benefit extracting more sample information from the ensemble system.The results show that the cross-validated skill of the new scheme over the period of 1960 to 2002 is much higher than equally-weighted ensemble,multiple linear regression,and Bayesian ensemble with simulated YRV summer rainfall as ensemble members.In addition,the new scheme is also more skillful than reference forecasts (random forecast at a 0.01 significance level for ensemble mean and climatology forecast for probability density function).

Splitting and Merging Based Multi-model Fitting for Point Cloud Segmentation

This paper deals with the massive point cloud segmentation processing technology on the basis of machine vision, which is the second essential factor for the intelligent data processing of three dimensional conformation in digital photogrammetry. In this paper, multi-model fitting method is used to segment the point cloud according to the spatial distribution and spatial geometric structure of point clouds by fitting the point cloud into different geometric primitives models. Because point cloud usually possesses large amount of 3D points, which are uneven distributed over various complex structures, this paper proposes a point cloud segmentation method based on multi-model fitting. Firstly, the pre-segmentation of point cloud is conducted by using the clustering method based on density distribution. And then the follow fitting and segmentation are carried out by using the multi-model fitting method based on split and merging. For the plane and the arc surface, this paper uses different fitting methods, and finally realizing the indoor dense point cloud segmentation. The experimental results show that this method can achieve the automatic segmentation of the point cloud without setting the number of models in advance. Compared with the existing point cloud segmentation methods, this method has obvious advantages in segmentation effect and time cost, and can achieve higher segmentation accuracy. After processed by method proposed in this paper, the point cloud even with large-scale and complex structures can often be segmented into 3D geometric elements with finer and accurate model parameters, which can give rise to an accurate 3D conformation.

Validation of the effects of temperature simulated by multi-model ensemble and prediction of mean temperature changes for the next three decades in China

Using series of daily average temperature observations over the period of 1961-1999 of 701 meteorological stations in China, and simulated results of 20 global climate models （such as BCCR_BCM2.0, CGCM3T47） during the same period as the observation, we validate and analyze the simulated results of the models by using three factor statistical method, achieve the results of mul- ti-model ensemble, test and verify the results of multi-model ensemble by using the observation data during the period of 1991-1999. Finally, we analyze changes of the annual mean temperature result of multi-mode ensemble prediction for the period of 2011-2040 under the emission scenarios A2, A1B and B 1. Analyzed results show that： （1） Global climate models can repro- duce Chinese regional spatial distribution of annual mean temperature, especially in low latitudes and eastern China. （2） With the factor of the trend of annual mean temperature changes in reference period, there is an obvious bias between the model and the observation. （3） Testing the result of multi-model ensemble during the period of 1991-1999, we can simulate the trend of temper- ature increase. Compared to observation, the result of different weighing multi-model ensemble prediction is better than the same weighing ensemble. （4） For the period of 20ll-2040, the growth of the annual mean temperature in China, which results from multi-mode ensemble prediction, is above 1℃. In the spatial distribution of annual mean temperature, under the emission scenarios of A2, A1B and B 1, the trend of growth in South China region is the smallest, the increment is less than or equals to 0.8℃; the trends in the northwestern region and south of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau are the largest, the increment is more than 1℃.

Fuzzy modeling of multirate sampled nonlinear systems based on multi-model method

Based on the multi-model principle, the fuzzy identification for nonlinear systems with multirate sampled data is studied.Firstly, the nonlinear system with multirate sampled data can be shown as the nonlinear weighted combination of some linear models at multiple local working points. On this basis, the fuzzy model of the multirate sampled nonlinear system is built. The premise structure of the fuzzy model is confirmed by using fuzzy competitive learning, and the conclusion parameters of the fuzzy model are estimated by the random gradient descent algorithm. The convergence of the proposed identification algorithm is given by using the martingale theorem and lemmas. The fuzzy model of the PH neutralization process of acid-base titration for hair quality detection is constructed to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

A Multi-Model Approach to Design a Robust SVC Damping Controller Using Convex Optimization Technique to Enhance the Damping of Inter-Area Oscillations Considering Time Delay

This paper introduces a multi-model approach to design a robust supplementary damping controller. The designed fixed-order supplementary damping controller adjusts the voltage reference set point of SVC. There are two main objectives of the controller design, damping low frequencies oscillations and enhancing power system stability. This method relies on shaping the closed-loop sensitivity functions in the Nyquist plot under the constraints of these functions. These constraints can be linearized by choosing a desired open-loop transfer function. The robust controller is designed to minimize the error between the open-loop of the original plant model and the desired transfer functions. These outcomes can be achieved by using convex optimization methods. Convexity of the problem formulation ensures global optimality. One of the advantages of the proposed approach is that the approach accounts for multi-model uncertainty. In contrast to the methods available in the literature, the proposed approach deals with full-order model (i.e., model reduction is not required) with lower controller order. The issue of time delay of feedback signals has been addressed in this paper for different values of time delay by applying a multi-model optimization technique. The proposed approach is compared to other existing techniques to design a robust controller which is based on H2 under pole placement. Both techniques are applied to the 68-bus system to evaluate and validate the robust controller performance under different load scenarios and different wind generations.

An Innovative Method to Improve Model Accuracy by Implementing Multi-models Scheme for 28nm Node and Below

As the process comes into 28nm node and below,lithography struggles stronger between high resolution (high NA) and enough process window especially for hole layers (Contacts and Vias).Taking more care of process window may result in lower image quality of structures and bigger uncertainty in OPC model accuracy.Besides,it is difficult to cover all kinds of test structures within acceptable accuracy in one OPC model because of distinct difference of image quality of different patterns.To solve these problems,this paper introduces an innovative method of applying multi-models in one layer OPC.According to different characteristic features,multiple models are applied respectively and the fitting on these features with poor resolution can be improved by re-optimizing based on related model.A practice for 28 nm Via layer modeling calibration is given,and it shows an evident improvement of model accuracy through the implementing of multiple models scheme.