Purpose:The purpose of this study is to develop and compare model choice strategies in context of logistic regression.Model choice means the choice of the covariates to be included in the model.Design/methodology/appr...Purpose:The purpose of this study is to develop and compare model choice strategies in context of logistic regression.Model choice means the choice of the covariates to be included in the model.Design/methodology/approach:The study is based on Monte Carlo simulations.The methods are compared in terms of three measures of accuracy:specificity and two kinds of sensitivity.A loss function combining sensitivity and specificity is introduced and used for a final comparison.Findings:The choice of method depends on how much the users emphasize sensitivity against specificity.It also depends on the sample size.For a typical logistic regression setting with a moderate sample size and a small to moderate effect size,either BIC,BICc or Lasso seems to be optimal.Research limitations:Numerical simulations cannot cover the whole range of data-generating processes occurring with real-world data.Thus,more simulations are needed.Practical implications:Researchers can refer to these results if they believe that their data-generating process is somewhat similar to some of the scenarios presented in this paper.Alternatively,they could run their own simulations and calculate the loss function.Originality/value:This is a systematic comparison of model choice algorithms and heuristics in context of logistic regression.The distinction between two types of sensitivity and a comparison based on a loss function are methodological novelties.展开更多
为更全面研究高速公路车辆冲突风险的影响因素,笔者考虑微观与宏观因素影响,分析其可能存在的异质性,建立了随机参数Logit模型对其进行分析。使用高分辨率车辆轨迹数据,以碰撞时间(time to collision,TTC)为风险识别标准,提取风险发生前...为更全面研究高速公路车辆冲突风险的影响因素,笔者考虑微观与宏观因素影响,分析其可能存在的异质性,建立了随机参数Logit模型对其进行分析。使用高分辨率车辆轨迹数据,以碰撞时间(time to collision,TTC)为风险识别标准,提取风险发生前1 s内数据,处理得到车辆自身运动状态、与周围车辆的微观交互以及路段宏观交通流状态三类特征,并基于皮尔逊相关系数和嵌入法进行特征筛选;以筛选后的特征作为模型自变量,以车辆是否存在冲突风险为因变量,分别构建随机参数Logit模型以及考虑均值异质性的随机参数模型并进行对比。研究结果表明:考虑均值异质性的随机参数Logit模型拟合效果最好,且三类变量均对冲突风险有显著影响,其中车辆自身运动状态的波动以及车辆与前方车辆的速度差与风险呈正相关,相邻车道的大车比例与风险呈负相关;车辆自身运动状态以及与前方车辆的微观交互两类特征对冲突风险影响较大,而宏观交通特征的影响相对较小。展开更多
Since land and labor force are primary resources to be used and controlled by rural households, the allocation of labor forces will influence land uses, and further lead to land use conversion. The present study used ...Since land and labor force are primary resources to be used and controlled by rural households, the allocation of labor forces will influence land uses, and further lead to land use conversion. The present study used the Binary Logit model to investigate the influence of labor force transfer, characteristics of rural households, location, and land market on agricultural land use conversion at rural household level. This study was conducted based on 329 valid questionnaires, which were obtained in Changshu, Rudong, and Tongshan counties, respectively representing the southern, middle and northern areas of Jiangsu Province. The results showed that land market participation, location, zonal difference and labor transfer had strong influences on agricultural land use conversion. The participation of land market had a strong positive effect on land use conversion, especially for the farmland converted to the fishpond. The nearer to the county seat, the more conversion of land use occurred. Particularly, the labor force transfer caused by wage employment decreased this conversion probability, while the labor transfer caused by self-employment led to more conversion; and the increasing of income from labor transfer increased the conversion. Moreover, land use con- versions demonstrated zonal difference, which were more in Rudong and Changshu counties than in Tongshan County, and the factors influencing this conversion were different in the three regions.展开更多
Select link analysis provides information of where traffic comes from and goes to at selected links.This disaggregate information has wide applications in practice.The state-of-the-art planning software packages often...Select link analysis provides information of where traffic comes from and goes to at selected links.This disaggregate information has wide applications in practice.The state-of-the-art planning software packages often adopt the user equilibrium(UE) model for select link analysis.However,empirical studies have repeatedly revealed that the stochastic user equilibrium model more accurately predicts observed mean and variance of choices than the UE model.This paper proposes an alternative select link analysis method by making use of the recently developed logit–weibit hybrid model,to alleviate the drawbacks of both logit and weibit models while keeping a closed-form route choice probability expression.To enhance the applicability in large-scale networks,Bell’s stochastic loading method originally developed for logit model is adapted to the hybrid model.The features of the proposed method are twofold:(1) unique O–D-specific link flow pattern and more plausible behavioral realism attributed to the hybrid route choice model and(2) applicability in large-scale networks due to the link-based stochastic loading method.An illustrative network example and a case study in a large-scale network are conducted to demonstrate the efficiency and effectiveness of the proposed select link analysis method as well as applications of O–D-specific link flow information.A visualizationmethod is also proposed to enhance the understanding of O–D-specific link flow originally in the form of a matrix.展开更多
文摘Purpose:The purpose of this study is to develop and compare model choice strategies in context of logistic regression.Model choice means the choice of the covariates to be included in the model.Design/methodology/approach:The study is based on Monte Carlo simulations.The methods are compared in terms of three measures of accuracy:specificity and two kinds of sensitivity.A loss function combining sensitivity and specificity is introduced and used for a final comparison.Findings:The choice of method depends on how much the users emphasize sensitivity against specificity.It also depends on the sample size.For a typical logistic regression setting with a moderate sample size and a small to moderate effect size,either BIC,BICc or Lasso seems to be optimal.Research limitations:Numerical simulations cannot cover the whole range of data-generating processes occurring with real-world data.Thus,more simulations are needed.Practical implications:Researchers can refer to these results if they believe that their data-generating process is somewhat similar to some of the scenarios presented in this paper.Alternatively,they could run their own simulations and calculate the loss function.Originality/value:This is a systematic comparison of model choice algorithms and heuristics in context of logistic regression.The distinction between two types of sensitivity and a comparison based on a loss function are methodological novelties.
文摘为更全面研究高速公路车辆冲突风险的影响因素,笔者考虑微观与宏观因素影响,分析其可能存在的异质性,建立了随机参数Logit模型对其进行分析。使用高分辨率车辆轨迹数据,以碰撞时间(time to collision,TTC)为风险识别标准,提取风险发生前1 s内数据,处理得到车辆自身运动状态、与周围车辆的微观交互以及路段宏观交通流状态三类特征,并基于皮尔逊相关系数和嵌入法进行特征筛选;以筛选后的特征作为模型自变量,以车辆是否存在冲突风险为因变量,分别构建随机参数Logit模型以及考虑均值异质性的随机参数模型并进行对比。研究结果表明:考虑均值异质性的随机参数Logit模型拟合效果最好,且三类变量均对冲突风险有显著影响,其中车辆自身运动状态的波动以及车辆与前方车辆的速度差与风险呈正相关,相邻车道的大车比例与风险呈负相关;车辆自身运动状态以及与前方车辆的微观交互两类特征对冲突风险影响较大,而宏观交通特征的影响相对较小。
基金Under the auspices of National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 40801063, 70373029)Jiangsu Provincial Society Foundation (No. 06EYB004)
文摘Since land and labor force are primary resources to be used and controlled by rural households, the allocation of labor forces will influence land uses, and further lead to land use conversion. The present study used the Binary Logit model to investigate the influence of labor force transfer, characteristics of rural households, location, and land market on agricultural land use conversion at rural household level. This study was conducted based on 329 valid questionnaires, which were obtained in Changshu, Rudong, and Tongshan counties, respectively representing the southern, middle and northern areas of Jiangsu Province. The results showed that land market participation, location, zonal difference and labor transfer had strong influences on agricultural land use conversion. The participation of land market had a strong positive effect on land use conversion, especially for the farmland converted to the fishpond. The nearer to the county seat, the more conversion of land use occurred. Particularly, the labor force transfer caused by wage employment decreased this conversion probability, while the labor transfer caused by self-employment led to more conversion; and the increasing of income from labor transfer increased the conversion. Moreover, land use con- versions demonstrated zonal difference, which were more in Rudong and Changshu counties than in Tongshan County, and the factors influencing this conversion were different in the three regions.
基金supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China(51408433)Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities of Chinathe Chenguang Program sponsored by Shanghai Education Development Foundation and Shanghai Municipal Education Commission
文摘Select link analysis provides information of where traffic comes from and goes to at selected links.This disaggregate information has wide applications in practice.The state-of-the-art planning software packages often adopt the user equilibrium(UE) model for select link analysis.However,empirical studies have repeatedly revealed that the stochastic user equilibrium model more accurately predicts observed mean and variance of choices than the UE model.This paper proposes an alternative select link analysis method by making use of the recently developed logit–weibit hybrid model,to alleviate the drawbacks of both logit and weibit models while keeping a closed-form route choice probability expression.To enhance the applicability in large-scale networks,Bell’s stochastic loading method originally developed for logit model is adapted to the hybrid model.The features of the proposed method are twofold:(1) unique O–D-specific link flow pattern and more plausible behavioral realism attributed to the hybrid route choice model and(2) applicability in large-scale networks due to the link-based stochastic loading method.An illustrative network example and a case study in a large-scale network are conducted to demonstrate the efficiency and effectiveness of the proposed select link analysis method as well as applications of O–D-specific link flow information.A visualizationmethod is also proposed to enhance the understanding of O–D-specific link flow originally in the form of a matrix.
