Prediction of three-dimensional ocean temperature in the South China Sea based on time series gridded data and a dynamic spatiotemporal graph neural network

Ocean temperature is an important physical variable in marine ecosystems,and ocean temperature prediction is an important research objective in ocean-related fields.Currently,one of the commonly used methods for ocean temperature prediction is based on data-driven,but research on this method is mostly limited to the sea surface,with few studies on the prediction of internal ocean temperature.Existing graph neural network-based methods usually use predefined graphs or learned static graphs,which cannot capture the dynamic associations among data.In this study,we propose a novel dynamic spatiotemporal graph neural network(DSTGN)to predict threedimensional ocean temperature(3D-OT),which combines static graph learning and dynamic graph learning to automatically mine two unknown dependencies between sequences based on the original 3D-OT data without prior knowledge.Temporal and spatial dependencies in the time series were then captured using temporal and graph convolutions.We also integrated dynamic graph learning,static graph learning,graph convolution,and temporal convolution into an end-to-end framework for 3D-OT prediction using time-series grid data.In this study,we conducted prediction experiments using high-resolution 3D-OT from the Copernicus global ocean physical reanalysis,with data covering the vertical variation of temperature from the sea surface to 1000 m below the sea surface.We compared five mainstream models that are commonly used for ocean temperature prediction,and the results showed that the method achieved the best prediction results at all prediction scales.

Fault Prediction Based on Dynamic Model and Grey Time Series Model in Chemical Processes

This paper combines grey model with time series model and then dynamic model for rapid and in-depth fault prediction in chemical processes. Two combination methods are proposed. In one method, historical data is introduced into the grey time series model to predict future trend of measurement values in chemical process. These predicted measurements are then used in the dynamic model to retrieve the change of fault parameters by model based diagnosis algorithm. In another method, historical data is introduced directly into the dynamic model to retrieve historical fault parameters by model based diagnosis algorithm. These parameters are then predicted by the grey time series model. The two methods are applied to a gravity tank example. The case study demonstrates that the first method is more accurate for fault prediction.

Method of Time Series Similarity Measurement Based on Dynamic Time Warping

With the rapid development of mobile communication all over the world,the similarity of mobile phone communication data has received widely attention due to its advantage for the construction of smart cities.Mobile phone communication data can be regarded as a type of time series and dynamic time warping(DTW)and derivative dynamic time warping(DDTW)are usually used to analyze the similarity of these data.However,many traditional methods only calculate the distance between time series while neglecting the shape characteristics of time series.In this paper,a novel hybrid method based on the combination of dynamic time warping and derivative dynamic time warping is proposed.The new method considers not only the distance between time series,but also the shape characteristics of time series.We demonstrated that our method can outperform DTW and DDTW through extensive experiments with respect to cophenetic correlation.

Variational Inference Based Kernel Dynamic Bayesian Networks for Construction of Prediction Intervals for Industrial Time Series With Incomplete Input

Prediction intervals(PIs)for industrial time series can provide useful guidance for workers.Given that the failure of industrial sensors may cause the missing point in inputs,the existing kernel dynamic Bayesian networks(KDBN),serving as an effective method for PIs construction,suffer from high computational load using the stochastic algorithm for inference.This study proposes a variational inference method for the KDBN for the purpose of fast inference,which avoids the timeconsuming stochastic sampling.The proposed algorithm contains two stages.The first stage involves the inference of the missing inputs by using a local linearization based variational inference,and based on the computed posterior distributions over the missing inputs the second stage sees a Gaussian approximation for probability over the nodes in future time slices.To verify the effectiveness of the proposed method,a synthetic dataset and a practical dataset of generation flow of blast furnace gas(BFG)are employed with different ratios of missing inputs.The experimental results indicate that the proposed method can provide reliable PIs for the generation flow of BFG and it exhibits shorter computing time than the stochastic based one.

Preliminary Study of Reconstruction of a Dynamic System Using an One－Dimensional Time Series

This paper concerns the reconstruction of a dynamic system based on phase space continuation of monthly meantemperature iD time series and the assumption that the equation for the time-varying evolution of phase space statevariables contains linear and nonlinear quadratic terms. followed by the fitting of the dataset subjected to continuation so as to get, by the least square method. the coefficients of the terms, of which those of greater variance contribution are retained for use. Results show that the obtained low-order system may be used to describe nonlinear properties of the short range climate variation shown by monthly mean temperature series.

Spatial Pattern and Time Series Dynamics of Spondylis buprestoides Adults

Spondylis buprestoides adults in Pians masoniana forests in Xianju Dabei Dixi Forestry Center were continuously investigated during 2006 and 2011. According to the survey data, multiple spatial pattern indicators of adult population were calculated, and the relationship between various indicators and density was analyzed. The K values of negative binomial distribution less affected by density were selected to describe the spatial pattern and time series dynamics of S. buprestoides adults. The results indicated that S. buprestoides adults showed aggregated distribution in the forest, but the aggregation degree varied with the season. There were 2 obvious diffusion peaks during May and June as well as September and October each year. The aggregation trend within a generation was aggregation-diffusion-aggregation.

Short and Long-Term Time Series Forecasting Stochastic Analysis for Slow Dynamic Processes

This paper intends to develop suitable methods to provide likely scenarios in order to support decision making for slow dynamic processes such as the underlying of agribusiness. A new method to analyze the short- and long-term time series forecast and to model the behavior of the underlying process using nonlinear artificial neural networks (ANN) is presented. The algorithm can effectively forecast the time-series data by stochastic analysis (Monte Carlo) of its future behavior using fractional Gaussian noise (fGn). The algorithm was used to forecast country risk time series for several countries, both for short term that is 30 days ahead and long term 350 days ahead scenarios.

Dynamic Ensemble Multivariate Time Series Forecasting Model for PM2.5

In forecasting real time environmental factors,large data is needed to analyse the pattern behind the data values.Air pollution is a major threat towards developing countries and it is proliferating every year.Many methods in time ser-ies prediction and deep learning models to estimate the severity of air pollution.Each independent variable contributing towards pollution is necessary to analyse the trend behind the air pollution in that particular locality.This approach selects multivariate time series and coalesce a real time updatable autoregressive model to forecast Particulate matter(PM)PM2.5.To perform experimental analysis the data from the Central Pollution Control Board(CPCB)is used.Prediction is car-ried out for Chennai with seven locations and estimated PM’s using the weighted ensemble method.Proposed method for air pollution prediction unveiled effective and moored performance in long term prediction.Dynamic budge with high weighted k-models are used simultaneously and devising an ensemble helps to achieve stable forecasting.Computational time of ensemble decreases with paral-lel processing in each sub model.Weighted ensemble model shows high perfor-mance in long term prediction when compared to the traditional time series models like Vector Auto-Regression(VAR),Autoregressive Integrated with Mov-ing Average(ARIMA),Autoregressive Moving Average with Extended terms(ARMEX).Evaluation metrics like Root Mean Square Error(RMSE),Mean Absolute Error(MAE)and the time to achieve the time series are compared.

Time Series Analysis and Prediction of COVID-19 Pandemic Using Dynamic Harmonic Regression Models

Rapidly spreading COVID-19 virus and its variants, especially in metropolitan areas around the world, became a major health public concern. The tendency of COVID-19 pandemic and statistical modelling represents an urgent challenge in the United States for which there are few solutions. In this paper, we demonstrate combining Fourier terms for capturing seasonality with ARIMA errors and other dynamics in the data. Therefore, we have analyzed 156 weeks COVID-19 dataset on national level using Dynamic Harmonic Regression model, including simulation analysis and accuracy improvement from 2020 to 2023. Most importantly, we provide new advanced pathways which may serve as targets for developing new solutions and approaches.

LEGENDRE SERIES SOLUTIONS FOR TIME-VARIATION DYNAMICS

In this topic, a new. approach to the analysis of time-variation dynamics is proposed by use of Legendre series expansion and Legendre integral operator matrix. The theoretical basis for effective solution of time-variation dynamics is therefore established, which is beneficial to further research of time-variation science.

Nonlinear Time Series Prediction Using Chaotic Neural Networks

A nonlinear feedback term is introduced into the evaluation equation of weights of the backpropagation algorithm for neural network, the network becomes a chaotic one. For the purpose of that we can investigate how the different feedback terms affect the process of learning and forecasting, we use the model to forecast the nonlinear time series which is produced by Makey-Glass equation. By selecting the suitable feedback term, the system can escape from the local minima and converge to the global minimum or its approximate solutions, and the forecasting results are better than those of backpropagation algorithm.

Markov transition probability-based network from time series for characterizing experimental two-phase flow

We generate a directed weighted complex network by a method based on Markov transition probability to represent an experimental two-phase flow. We first systematically carry out gas-liquid two-phase flow experiments for measuring the time series of flow signals. Then we construct directed weighted complex networks from various time series in terms of a network generation method based on Markov transition probability. We find that the generated network inherits the main features of the time series in the network structure. In particular, the networks from time series with different dynamics exhibit distinct topological properties. Finally, we construct two-phase flow directed weighted networks from experimental signals and associate the dynamic behavior of gas-liquid two-phase flow with the topological statistics of the generated networks. The results suggest that the topological statistics of two-phase flow networks allow quantitative characterization of the dynamic flow behavior in the transitions among different gas-liquid flow patterns.

Time series prediction of mining subsidence based on a SVM

In order to study dynamic laws of surface movements over coal mines due to mining activities,a dynamic prediction model of surface movements was established,based on the theory of support vector machines(SVM) and times-series analysis.An engineering application was used to verify the correctness of the model.Measurements from observation stations were analyzed and processed to obtain equal-time interval surface movement data and subjected to tests of stationary,zero means and normality.Then the data were used to train the SVM model.A time series model was established to predict mining subsidence by rational choices of embedding dimensions and SVM parameters.MAPE and WIA were used as indicators to evaluate the accuracy of the model and for generalization performance.In the end,the model was used to predict future surface movements.Data from observation stations in Huaibei coal mining area were used as an example.The results show that the maximum absolute error of subsidence is 9 mm,the maximum relative error 1.5%,the maximum absolute error of displacement 7 mm and the maximum relative error 1.8%.The accuracy and reliability of the model meet the requirements of on-site engineering.The results of the study provide a new approach to investigate the dynamics of surface movements.

Application of time series modeling to a national reference frame realization

This paper presents an option for modern dynamic terrestrial reference system realization in Uzbekistan for user needs. An additive model is explored to predict patterns of time series and investigate means of constructing forecast time series models in the future. The main components(trend, periodical, and irregular) of the KIUB(DORIS) and KIT3, TASH, MADK, and MTAL(GNSS) international stations coordinate time series were investigated. It was shown that seasonal nonlinear trends occurred both in the height(U) component of all stations and the east(E) component of high mountainous stations such as MTAL and MADK. The seasonal periodical portion of the time series determined from the additive model has a complicated pattern for all sites and can be explained as both hydrological signals in the region and improvement of observational quality. Amplitudes of the best-fitting sinusoids in the North component ranged between 1.73 and 8.76 mm; the East component ranged between 0.82 and 11.92 mm; and the Up component ranged between 3.11 and 40.81 mm. Regression analysis of the irregular portion of the height component of the two techniques at the Kitab station using tropospheric parameters(pressure and temperature) was confirmed as only 57% of the stochastic portion of the time series.

Study on Ecological Change Remote Sensing Monitoring Method Based on Elman Dynamic Recurrent Neural Network

In this paper, Hailin City of Heilongjiang Province, China is taken as the research area. As an important city in Heilongjiang Province, China, the sustainable development of its ecological environment is related to the opening up, economic prosperity and social stability of Northeast China. In this paper, the remote sensing ecological index (RSEI) of Hailin City in recent 20 years was calculated by using Landsat 5/8/9 series satellite images, and the temporal and spatial changes of the ecological environment in Hailin City were further analyzed and the influencing factors were discussed. From 2003 to 2023, the mean value of RSEI in Hailin City decreased and increased, and the ecological environment decreased slightly as a whole. RSEI declined most significantly from 2003 to 2008, and it increased from 2008 to 2013, decreased from 2013 to 2018, and increased from 2018 to 2023 again, with higher RSEI value in the south and lower RSEI value in the northwest. It is suggested to appropriately increase vegetation coverage in the northwest to improve ecological quality. As a result, the predicted value of Elman dynamic recurrent neural network model is consistent with the change trend of the mean value, and the prediction error converges quickly, which can accurately predict the ecological environment quality in the future study area.

A Survey of Time Series Data Visualization Methods

In the era of big data,the general public is more likely to access big data,but they wouldn’t like to analyze the data.Therefore,the traditional data visualization with certain professionalism is not easy to be accepted by the general public living in the fast pace.Under this background,a new general visualization method for dynamic time series data emerges as the times require.Time series data visualization organizes abstract and hard-to-understand data into a form that is easily understood by the public.This method integrates data visualization into short videos,which is more in line with the way people get information in modern fast-paced lifestyles.The modular approach also facilitates public participation in production.This paper summarizes the dynamic visualization methods of time series data ranking,studies the relevant literature,shows its value and existing problems,and gives corresponding suggestions and future research prospects.

Chaotic characters of the Yellow River Basin based on the sediment time series： An attempt to integrated research in geography

The sediment content of the Yellow River is resulted from the interactions of natural, economic, and social factors, so it includes some evolutive information of the Yellow River Basin system. Sediment contents from 1952 to 2007 on Toudaoguai, Tongguan, Huayuankou and Lijin sections along the river are chosen as the study time series, and correlation dimensions （D2）, Kolmogorov entropies （K2）, and Hurst indexes （H） of the time series were calculated. Correlation dimensions on Toudaoguai, Tongguan, Huayuankou, and Lijin sections are 3.24, 5.69, 6.57 and 7.34 respectively, and the Kolmogorov entropies are 0.13, 0.37, 0.40 and 0.38 respectively, which indicates that the systems controlled by different sections along the Yellow River are chaotic systems and the chaotic degrees increase gradually from the upper to lower section. The average predictable period of the sediment contents is 8 years on Toudaoguai section and 3 years on the other sections with the reciprocals of the Kolmogorov entropies. The more obvious the chaotic degree is, the shorter the average predictable period is. Hurst indexes on the sections are above 0.5, with the maximum of 0.86 on Tongguan section and the minimum of 0.68 on Toudaoguai section, which indicates that the time series have persistent trends in the average predictable period. Eight state variables and two control parameters are necessary to construct the dynamic model of the Yellow River Basin system.

Efficient Dynamic Time Warping by Adaptively Controlling the Valid Warping Range

Dynamic time warping(DTW)spends most of the time in generating the correlation table,and it establishes the global path constraints to reduce the time complexity.However,the global constraints restrain just in terms of the time axis.In this paper,we therefore propose another version of DTW,to be called branch-and-bound DTW(BnB-DTW),which adaptively controb its global path constraints by reflecting the contents of input patterns. Experimental results show that the suggested BnB-DTW algorithm performs more efficiently than other conventional DTW approaches while not increasing the optimal warping cost.

Clustering-Inverse: A Generalized Model for Pattern-Based Time Series Segmentation

Patterned-based time series segmentation (PTSS) is an important task for many time series data mining applications. In this paper, according to the characteristics of PTSS, a generalized model is proposed for PTSS. First, a new inter-pretation for PTSS is given by comparing this problem with the prototype-based clustering (PC). Then, a novel model, called clustering-inverse model (CI-model), is presented. Finally, two algorithms are presented to implement this model. Our experimental results on artificial and real-world time series demonstrate that the proposed algorithms are quite effective.