MULTI-PARAMETER ACCELERATED MODIFIED NEWTON-RAPHSON METHODS FOR RIGIDPLASTIC FE ANALYSIS

Applications of certain multi-parameter acceleration techniques used with themodified New-ton-Raphson (mN-R) methods to solve the nonlinear equations arising from rigid-plasticfinite element analysis are investigated. New modified multi-parameter techniques, developed fromCrisfield's multi-parameter methods, are utilized to solve these nonlinear equations. The numericalperformance of these techniques is compared with the standard Newton-Raphson method (sN-R),Crisfield's single parameter method (C1), Crisfield's two parameter method (C2) and Crisfield'sthree parameter method (C3). The new techniques do not involve additional residual force calculationand require little extra computational effort. In addition, they are more robust and efficient thanother existing acceleration techniques.

Chaos control of gear system with elastomeric web based on multi-parameter multi-step method

This paper employs a multi-parameter multi-step chaos control method, which is built up on the OGY method, to stabilize desirable UPOs of a gear system with elastomeric web as a high-dimensional and non-hyperbolic chaotic system, and the analyses are carried out. Three types of relations between components of a certain control parameter combination are defined in a certain control process. Special emphasis is put on the comparison of control efficiencies of the multi-parameter multi-step method and single-parameter multi-step method. The numerical experiments show the ability to switch between different orbits and the method can be a good chaos control alternative since it provides a more effective UPOs stabilization of high-dimensional and non-hyperbolic chaotic systems than the single-parameter chaos control, and according to the relation between components of each parameter combination, the best combination for chaos control in a certain UPO stabilization process are obtained.

Pancreas-sparing duodenectomy with regional lymph node dissection for early-stage ampullary carcinoma: A case control study using propensity scoring methods

AIM:To investigate the outcomes of pancreas-sparing duodenectomy(PSD)with regional lymph node dissection vs pancreaticoduodenectomy(PD).METHODS:Between August 2001 and June 2014,228 patients with early-stage ampullary carcinoma(Amp Ca)underwent surgical treatment(PD,n=159;PSD with regional lymph node dissection,n=69).The patients were divided into two groups:the PD group and the PSD group.Propensity scoring methods were used to select patients with similar disease statuses.A total of 138 matched cases,with 69 patients in each group,were included in the final analysis.RESULTS:The median operative time was shorter among the patients in the PSD group(435 min)compared with those in the PD group(481 min,P=0.048).The median blood loss in the PSD group was significantly less than that in the PD group.The median length of hospital stay was shorter for patients in the PSD group vs the PD group.The incidence of pancreatic fistula was higher among patients in the PD group vs the PSD group.The 1-,3-,and 5-year overall survival and disease-free survival rates for patients in the PSD group were 83%,70%,44%and 73%,61%,39%,respectively,and these values were not different than compared with those in the PD group(P=0.625).CONCLUSION:PSD with regional lymph node dissection presents an acceptable morbidity in addition to its advantages over PD.PSD may be a safe and feasible alternative to PD in the treatment of earlystage Amp Ca.

Construction of Parsimonious Event Risk Scores by an Ensemble Method. An Illustration for Short-Term Predictions in Chronic Heart Failure Patients from the GISSI-HF Trial

Selecting which explanatory variables to include in a given score is a common difficulty, as a balance must be found between statistical fit and practical application. This article presents a methodology for constructing parsimonious event risk scores combining a stepwise selection of variables with ensemble scores obtained by aggregation of several scores, using several classifiers, bootstrap samples and various modalities of random selection of variables. Selection methods based on a probabilistic model can be used to achieve a stepwise selection for a given classifier such as logistic regression, but not directly for an ensemble classifier constructed by aggregation of several classifiers. Three selection methods are proposed in this framework, two involving a backward selection of the variables based on their coefficients in an ensemble score and the third involving a forward selection of the variables maximizing the AUC. The stepwise selection allows constructing a succession of scores, with the practitioner able to choose which score best fits his needs. These three methods are compared in an application to construct parsimonious short-term event risk scores in chronic HF patients, using as event the composite endpoint of death or hospitalization for worsening HF within 180 days of a visit. Focusing on the fastest method, four scores are constructed, yielding out-of-bag AUCs ranging from 0.81 (26 variables) to 0.76 (2 variables).

Multi-Parameter Analysis of Optimal Transitions from Chaotic to Stable Regions for Two Classes of Systems

The study of the parameter space of chaotic systems is complicated by its high dimensionality (multi-parametricability). Two approaches to the study of chaotic systems are presented: multi-parameter analysis and optimal suppression of chaotic dynamics. For non-autonomous chaotic systems, this is the way to compare the effectiveness of various correction parameters that provide optimal removal of irregular dynamics. For the class of autonomous chaotic systems, this is the way to investigate the optimal conditions of super-stable behavior for the chaotic system.

P25 Scoring Method for the Assessment of R/C Buildings

An effective rapid assessment technique, called ＂P25 Scoring Method＂, has been developed and tested on 26 different case studies recently, in order to predict the collapse vulnerability of the R/C buildings. After a short description of the approach, the study presents the sensitivity study of the method to the selected structural parameters by considering incremental deviation of the final scores from the base model. Further, the methodology was applied to an additional 100 damaged buildings in order to check the reliability of the method and some necessary modifications have been applied to the algorithm after considering this larger database. The evaluation of the results has been interpreted as a beneficial guidance for local authorities. The risk bands are defined according to the final scores and the effect of changing the band-width has also been studied through a safe but an economical procedure. A satisfactory correlation of the method with real damage states is obtained and a ready-to-use methodology has been introduced for future studies.

Comparison of Block Design Nonparametric Subset Selection Rules Based on Alternative Scoring Rules

This article compares the size of selected subsets using nonparametric subset selection rules with two different scoring rules for the observations. The scoring rules are based on the expected values of order statistics of the uniform distribution (yielding rank values) and of the normal distribution (yielding normal score values). The comparison is made using state motor vehicle traffic fatality rates, published in a 2016 article, with fifty-one states (including DC as a state) and over a nineteen-year period (1994 through 2012). The earlier study considered four block design selection rules—two for choosing a subset to contain the “best” population (i.e., state with lowest mean fatality rate) and two for the “worst” population (i.e., highest mean rate) with a probability of correct selection chosen to be 0.90. Two selection rules based on normal scores resulted in selected subset sizes substantially smaller than corresponding rules based on ranks (7 vs. 16 and 3 vs. 12). For two other selection rules, the subsets chosen were very close in size (within one). A comparison is also made using state homicide rates, published in a 2022 article, with fifty states and covering eight years. The results are qualitatively the same as those obtained with the motor vehicle traffic fatality rates.

改良结扎法用于脊髓损伤造模的优势分析

背景:目前根据脊髓损伤的损伤方式不同衍生出不同的模型构建方法,传统物理损伤造模方法都有各自的优缺点,尚缺乏较为有效和稳定的脊髓损伤动物模型。目的:建立一种可复制、可调控、创伤小、死亡率低、模型更稳定、适用范围广、术后护理时间短的脊髓损伤大鼠模型。方法:将体质量和鼠龄相似的40只SD大鼠随机分为对照组和改良组,每组20只,对照组采用钳夹造模法构建脊髓损伤模型,改良组选用基于压迫法改良的结扎法,在开窗的基础上使用缝线结扎的方法进行脊髓损伤的造模。比较两组大鼠的排尿行为、血尿、脓尿(感染率)、死亡率、脊柱畸形率及术后1,3,5,7 d的BBB运动功能学评分。结果与结论:基于压迫法改良的结扎法建立的脊髓损伤大鼠模型比常规建模方法排尿行为恢复较快、血尿率低、感染率低、死亡率低、脊柱畸形率低,BBB评分结果更集中稳定(1周内均<2分),由此可证明基于压迫法改良的结扎法更适用于脊髓损伤大鼠模型的建立。

基于Z-score模型的废水排放总量与浓度综合分析研究

污染物排放数量与环境质量、经济发展息息相关,综合分析污染物排放的总量和浓度,对明确污染物排放状况,改善环境质量和制定可持续发展战略很必要。研究基于Z-score标准化模型,基于中国2005-2014年废水污染物数据,对废水排放总量和废水中污染物浓度进行综合分析研究。分析结果表明：废水排放总量和污染物浓度综合分析的结果与单一排放总量或者排放浓度的分析结果有出入,以2005年废水排放总量和污染物浓度为例,综合分析的结果为环境污染中等,而单独就废水排放总量而言环境污染最轻,就浓度数据而言,环境污染较严重。指出总量和浓度的综合分析相对于单一指标的分析更能反映污染的实际状况,能为客观、科学的环境质量评价,制定环境管理法规政策提供定量依据。

子宫卵巢超声结合Z-score方法对女性性早熟的诊断价值

目的分析子宫卵巢超声结合Z-score方法在女性性早熟中的诊断价值。方法选取2017年2月—2020年2月广东省东莞市第八人民医院(以下简称“我院”)收治的207例3~8岁女性性早熟患儿为实验组,另选取同期在我院咨询身高或体检的3~8岁健康儿童112名为对照组。根据性早熟部位分为单纯乳房过早发育(PT)及阴毛早生(PP)亚组50例、外周性性早熟(PPP)亚组61例、中枢性性早熟(CPP)亚组96例。两组均接受子宫、卵巢超声检测以获取子宫体、双侧卵巢径线,并计算体积;建立Z-score模型,计算Z值;受试者工作特征曲线(ROC)用于女性性早熟的诊断效能。结果年龄与卵巢体积、子宫体长径相关性最大(r=0.82、0.95,P<0.05)。PPP患儿子宫体长径平均Z值为2.59±2.29(-2.70,6.00),曲线下面积为0.909,最佳诊断临界值为1.05,敏感度为97.99%,特异性为81.90%。CPP患儿巢体积平均Z值为7.49±7.49(-0.48,36.99),曲线下面积为0.939,最佳诊断临界值为2.15,敏感度为100.00%,特异性为80.90%;宫体长径平均Z值为4.59±4.19(-1.15,22.79),曲线下面积为0.839,最佳诊断临界值为1.13,敏感度为90.80%,特异性为85.10%。结论子宫卵巢超声结合Z-score方法能有效诊断PPP、CPP,对儿童至青春期女性性早熟的诊断有重要作用,值得临床推广。

Use of scoring systems for assessing and reporting the outcome results from shoulder surgery and arthroplasty

To investigate shoulder scoring systems used in Europe and North America and how outcomes might be classified after shoulder joint replacement. All research papers published in four major journals in 2012 and 2013 were reviewed for the shoulder scoring systems used in their published papers. A method of identifying how outcomes after shoulder arthroplasty might be used to categorize patients into fair, good, very good and excellent outcomes was explored using the outcome evaluations from patients treated in our own unit. A total of 174 research articles that were published in the four journals used some form of shoulder scoring system. The outcome from shoulder arthroplasty in our unit has been evaluated using the constant score(CS) and the oxford shoulder score and these scores have been used to evaluate individual patient outcomes. CSs of < 30 = unsatisfactory; 30-39 = fair; 40-59 = good; 60-69 = very good; and 70 and over = excellent. The most popular shoulder scoring systems in North America were Simple Shoulder Test and American shoulder and elbow surgeons standard shoulder assessment form score and in Europe CS, Oxford Shoulder Score and DASH score.

Ponseti method compared with soft-tissue release for the management of clubfoot:A meta-analysis study

AIM: To compare the functional outcomes of patients who underwent open surgery vs Ponseti method for the management of idiopathic clubfoot and to determine whether correlations exist between functional outcome and radiographic measurements.METHODS: A meta-analysis of the literature was conducted for studies concerning primary treatment of patients with idiopathic clubfoot. We searched PubM ed Medline, EMBASE, and the Cochrane Library databases from January 1950 to October 2011. Meta-analyses were performed on outcomes from 12 studies. Pooled means, SDs, and sample sizes were either identified in the results or calculated based on the results of each study.RESULTS: Overall, 835 treated idiopathic clubfeet in 516 patients were reviewed. The average follow-up was 15.7 years. Patients managed with Ponseti method did have a higher rate of excellent or good outcome than patients treated with open surgery(0.76 and 0.62, respectively), but not quite to the point of statistical significance(Q = 3.73, P = 0.053). Age at surgery wasnot correlated with the functional outcome for the surgically treated patients(r =-0.32, P = 0.68). A larger anteroposterior talocalcaneal angle was correlated with a higher rate of excellent or good outcomes(r = 0.80, P = 0.006). There were no other significant correlations between the functional and radiographic outcomes.CONCLUSION: The Ponseti method should be considered the initial treatment of idiopathic clubfeet, and open surgery should be reserved for clubfeet that cannot be completely corrected.

Scoring of sperm chromosomal abnormalities by manual and automated approaches：qualitative and quantitative comparisons

It is now well known that levels of sperm disomy correlate to levels of infertility （as well as other factors）.The risk of perpetuating aneuploidy to the offspring of infertile males undergoing intracytoplasmic sperm injection （ICSI） has become a hotly debated issue in assisted reproduction;however,there remain barriers to the practical implementation of offering sperm disomy screening in a clinical setting. The major barrier is the operator time taken to analyze a statistically meaningful （sufficient） number of cells. The introduction of automated ＇spot counting＇software-hardware combinations presents a potential solution to this problem. In this preliminary validation study,we analyzed 10 patients,both manually and using a commercially available spot counter. Results show a statistically significant correlation between both approaches for scoring of sperm disomy,but no correlation is found when scoring for diploid sperm. The most likely explanation for the latter is an apparent overscoring of two closely associated sperm heads as a single diploid cell. These results,and similar further studies that will ensue,help to inform cost-benefit analyses that individual clinics need to carry out in order to decide whether to adopt sperm aneuploidy screening as a routine tool for the assessment of sperm from men requiring ICSI treatment.

A new interpretation and quantitative method for diplopia test： 304 cases of ocular motor nerve palsy for clinical test and verify

We introduce a new interpretation and quantitative method for computerized diplopia test. By comparing this new method to the Hess screen test, we validate its applicability among 304 patients with ocular motor nerve palsy. This new method shows great assistant value as the Hess screen test in making accurate diagnosis and quantitative evaluation the severity of diplopia. Furthermore, it is more convenient and suitable for daily clinical use.

Optimization of Quality Control Method and Ethanol Extraction Process of Psoralen and Bergapten in Ficus pandurata

[Objectives]To establish a qualitative identification and content determination method for psoralen and bergapten in the roots and leaves of Ficus pandurata,and the multi-indicator scoring method to optimize the ethanol extraction process for the effective parts of F.pandurata.[Methods]Qualitative identification was carried out by thin-layer chromatography(TLC)and content determination was made by high-performance liquid chromatography(HPLC);the content of psoralen and bergapten and extract yield were used as indicators,to investigate the effects of ethanol volume fraction,solid-to-liquid ratio,extraction time and extraction times on the ethanol extraction process of F.pandurata;multi-indicator scoring method was adopted,orthogonal test method was designed to optimize the extraction process,and verification test was performed.[Results]TLC chart of F.pandurata shows clear spots and good separation;the detected concentrations of psoralen and bergapten in the roots are in the range of 1.02-32.64μg/mL and shows a good linear relationship with the peak area(r=0.9997);these components have not been detected in the leaves,and the precision,RSD of stability and repeatability test is less than 2%;the average recovery rate was 99.8%-100.2%,and the RSD value is 1.12%-1.13%(n=6);the optimized extraction process is to use 50%ethanol as the extraction solvent,the solid-to-liquid ratio of 1∶10,reflux extraction of 3 times,and 1.5 h each time;the results of the three batches of verification tests show that the content of the two indicator components obtained is high,and the average value of the total amount is 0.34 mg/g(RSD=0.30%,n=3).[Conclusions]The established quality control method for F.pandurata is simple,easy,accurate and reproducible;the preferred extraction process is stable and feasible,suitable for the extraction and purification of coumarin effective parts in F.pandurata roots,so it is expected to provide references for further development of F.pandurata.

Construction and Update of an Online Ensemble Score Involving Linear Discriminant Analysis and Logistic Regression

The present aim is to update, upon arrival of new learning data, the parameters of a score constructed with an ensemble method involving linear discriminant analysis and logistic regression in an online setting, without the need to store all of the previously obtained data. Poisson bootstrap and stochastic approximation processes were used with online standardized data to avoid numerical explosions, the convergence of which has been established theoretically. This empirical convergence of online ensemble scores to a reference “batch” score was studied on five different datasets from which data streams were simulated, comparing six different processes to construct the online scores. For each score, 50 replications using a total of 10N observations (N being the size of the dataset) were performed to assess the convergence and the stability of the method, computing the mean and standard deviation of a convergence criterion. A complementary study using 100N observations was also performed. All tested processes on all datasets converged after N iterations, except for one process on one dataset. The best processes were averaged processes using online standardized data and a piecewise constant step-size.

The Factors of the Failure in the Treatment of Congenital Equinus Clubfoot Varus by the Ponseti Method at the Reference Health Care Center (CSREF) of Commune III of Bamako

Clubfoot malformation is the most common serious congenital anomaly affecting the foot in children. Its treatment by the Ponseti method is simple, profitable and widely used in the world. Objective: The objective of this study was to identify the factors of the failure of its treatment by the Ponseti method. Material and Method: We carried out a retrospective and descriptive study of cases of congenital equinus clubfoot varus at the Reference Health Care Center of Commune III of Bamako over 26 months from September 2020 to November 2022. Data were treated with the utmost anonymity. Result: This study was performed on 44 children seen for clubfoot: male (68%) and female (32%), with a sex ratio of 2.1. We obtained 13 cases of recidivism including 7 boys and 6 girls. We found 21 cases of unilateral and 23 bilateral;among which 9 recurrences were found against 4 in the unilateral forms. 85% of recurrences did not have good adherence to the splint and 62% did not come regularly for follow-up consultation. We obtained 33 children with idiopathic clubfeet (75%) with a recurrence of 24%, and 7 children with secondary clubfeet with 71 % recurrence. There was no recurrence in the postural type. Among the recurrences, 38.5% started treatment between 1 and 6 months, 23.1% from 0 to 1 month and 15.4% at 2 years and more. 85% of recurrences had a Pirani score between 4.5 to 6 at the start of treatment and 15% at a score of 2.5 to 4. Conclusion: The factors of the failure of the Ponseti method are mainly non-compliance with treatment, secondary clubfeet, and a high Pirani score at the start of treatment.

基于多模式预报的四川盆地强降水订正方法

四川盆地地形地貌复杂,强降水预报难度大,对模式降水预报产品进行订正,是提升强降水预报质量的重要手段。本文选取2018—2019年发生在四川盆地的35次强降水过程,对ECMWF、CMA_MESO和SWC_WARMS三种模式的24 h强降水预报采用常规评分和空间平移两个方法进行检验,并利用最优评分、多模式集成和位移订正三种方法进行订正试验。结果表明:最优评分订正方法可以有效改善各模式降水预报的强度,而多模式集成订正法可以改进降水落区和极值预报,在此基础上计算位移偏差,根据最优的位移偏差值对降水预报进行位移订正,可以进一步改进强降水落区预报效果。然后利用2020—2021年强降水过程进行订正效果验证,结果显示:经订正后的降水极值预报更接近实况,各量级降水预报评分明显优于单一模式,暴雨和大暴雨预报的TS评分提高率较最优单模式分别可达24.3%和42.8%,订正后空报率基本维持,漏报率显著下降,订正效果良好。

两种降水客观统计方法对ECMWF集合平均降水预报的订正研究

提升降水量级预报精度,有助于优化灾害预警与决策支持。选取2018年1月1日至2021年1月山东省逐12 h降水观测数据和欧洲中期天气预报中心(the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting,ECMWF)的集合预报集合平均(Ensemble Prediction Ensemble Mean,EPEM)结果进行72 h内逐12 h降水量级预报统计订正,然后对比ECMWF集合平均降水预报插值的原始预报(EC_EPEM)、基于EC_EPEM的输出统计(Model Output Statistics,MOS)预报(EC_EPEM_MOS)、利用最优TS(Threat Score)评分订正(Optimal Threat Score,OTS)预报(EC_EPEM_OTS)的效果。结果表明:EC_EPEM_MOS在较小量级上表现最优,但在大量级上订正效果稍差,甚至略低于EC_EPEM;EC_EPEM_OTS仅在0.1、10 mm量级上低于EC_EPEM_MOS,其他量级均为最优,尤其在较大量级上订正效果更明显。在50、100 mm大量级上,EC_EPEM_OTS在12~72 h时效订正效果均最优,这是由于EC_EPEM_OTS在稍大量级上提高订正系数使得大量级降水漏报率减小,同时对大量级降水使用较小订正系数也减小了空报率。在较小量级降水中短期预报时效除了山东中部山区外EC_EPEM_MOS表现最佳,山区EC_EPEM_OTS最佳;中等以上量级、尤其较大量级降水,山东大部分地区EC_EPEM_OTS表现最佳。EC_EPEM_MOS订正预报有效地减小了EC_EPEM的空报问题。EC_EPEM_OTS的订正效果最佳,在大范围强降雨过程中与实况降雨分布更为接近,降水总体分布把握较好。

服务型制造试点政策对企业服务绩效的影响

服务型制造是制造业转型升级高质量发展的重要方向。国家高度重视服务型制造试点工作,推动服务型制造创新发展。现有研究聚焦企业内部因素和外部市场因素对制造企业服务绩效的影响,对试点政策因素的促进作用缺乏关注。以浙江省经济和信息化厅分别于2017年和2018年公布的第一、第二批服务型制造试点企业名单为基础,选取包含试点企业在内的浙江省200家具有服务特征的上市制造企业2013—2019年面板数据,通过双重差分分析,检验服务型制造试点政策对企业服务绩效存在的影响。研究发现,服务型制造试点政策的实施对制造企业服务绩效的提升具有显著正向的影响,并且理论上试点带来的企业声誉可能会进一步增强这种提升作用。此外,试点政策对服务绩效的影响存在异质性特征,其净影响随着试点政策的持续而不断加强。具体表现为从试点第一年到试点第三年,企业服务绩效提升速度逐年提高。研究结论有效验证了浙江省服务型制造试点政策实施效果,为我国服务型制造试点政策的制定、实施与改进提供了启示。