Simulation of methane adsorption in diverse organic pores in shale reservoirs with multi-period geological evolution

In shale reservoirs,the organic pores with various structures formed during the thermal evolution of organic matter are the main storage site for adsorbed methane.However,in the process of thermal evolution,the adsorption characteristics of methane in multi type and multi-scale organic matter pores have not been sufficiently studied.In this study,the molecular simulation method was used to study the adsorption characteristics of methane based on the geological conditions of Longmaxi Formation shale reservoir in Sichuan Basin,China.The results show that the characteristics of pore structure will affect the methane adsorption characteristics.The adsorption capacity of slit-pores for methane is much higher than that of cylindrical pores.The groove space inside the pore will change the density distribution of methane molecules in the pore,greatly improve the adsorption capacity of the pore,and increase the pressure sensitivity of the adsorption process.Although the variation of methane adsorption characteristics of different shapes is not consistent with pore size,all pores have the strongest methane adsorption capacity when the pore size is about 2 nm.In addition,the changes of temperature and pressure during the thermal evolution are also important factors to control the methane adsorption characteristics.The pore adsorption capacity first increases and then decreases with the increase of pressure,and increases with the increase of temperature.In the early stage of thermal evolution,pore adsorption capacity is strong and pressure sensitivity is weak;while in the late stage,it is on the contrary.

Synergic Effect of Reworking for Imperfect Quality Items with the Integration of Multi-Period Delay-in-Payment and Partial Backordering in Global Supply Chains

In intercontinental trade and economics goods are bought from a global supplier.On occasion,the expected lot may include a fraction of defective items.These imperfect items still have worth and can be sold to customers after repair.It is cost-effective and sustainable to rework such items in nearby repair workshops rather than return them.The reworked items can be returned from the workshop to the buyer when shortages are equal to the quantity of imperfect items.In the meantime,the supplier correspondingly deals a multi-period delay-in-payments strategy with purchaser.The entire profit has been maximized with paybacks for interim financing.This study aims to develop a synergic inventory model to get the most profit by making an allowance for reworking,multi-period delay-in-payments policy,and shortages.The findings of the proposed model augment inventory management performance by monitoring cycle time as well as fraction of phase with optimistic inventory for a supply chain.The results demonstrate that profit is smaller if the permitted period given by supplier to buyer is equal to or greater than the cycle time,and profit is greater if the permitted period is smaller than the cycle time.The algebraic method is engaged to make a closed system optimum solution.The mathematical experiment of this study is constructed to provide management insights and tangible practices.

Carbon storage dynamics of subtropical forests estimated with multi-period forest inventories at a regional scale:the case of Jiangxi forests

Temperate and high-latitude forests are carbon sinks and play pivotal roles in offsetting greenhouse gas emissions of CO2.However,uncertainty still exists for subtropical forests,especially in monsoon-prevalent eastern Asia.Earlier studies have depended on remote sensing,ecosystem modeling,carbon fluxes,or single period forest surveys to estimate carbon sequestration capacities,and the results vary significantly.This study was designed to utilize multi-period forest survey data to explore spatial-dynamics of biomass storage in subtropical forests of China.Jiangxi province,a region with over 60%subtropical forest cover,was selected as the case study site and is located in central east China.Based on forest inventory data 1984-2013,and the stock-difference and biomass expansion factor methods,the carbon storage and density,of arboreal forests,economic forests,bamboo forests,woodlands and shrubberies were estimated.The results show that carbon storage increased from 159.1 Tg C in 1988 to 276.1 TgC in 2013,making up 3.1-3.8%of carbon stored throughout China.Among the four types of forests,the amount of carbon stored was as follows:arboreal forest>economic forest>bamboo forest>woodland and shrubbery.Arboreal forests accounted for 64.0-79.4%of the total.Forest carbon density increased from 21.2 Mg C ha-1 in 1984 to26.2 Mg C ha-1 in 2013,equal to 61.2-70.2%of the average carbon density of China’s forests in the same period.Forest carbon storage in Jiangxi will reach 355.5 Tg C and 535.8 Tg C in 2020 and 2030,respectively,and forest carbon density is predicted to be 31.9 Mg C ha-1and 46.4 Mg C ha-1,respectively.As one of the few studies using multi-period data tracking biomass dynamics in Jiangxi province,the findings of this study may be used as a reference for other research.Using Jiangxi as a case study underlies the fact that subtropical forests in China have great carbon sequestration potential and have fundamental significance to offset global environmental change effects.

MULTI-PERIODIC COLLISIONAL PROCESS BETWEEN INDIAN AND ASIAN CONTINENTS:A CASE OF EASTERN HIMALAYAN SYNTAXIS AND HENGDUAN MOUNTAINS

Our study area covered the Eastern Himalayan Syntaxis (EHS) and its southern extension (Hengduan Mountain or western Sichuan and Yunnan (WSY)) which is located at the orthogonal and oblique collisional front between Indian and Asian continents during Cenozoic.Based on geometric and kinematic mapping of the major boundary or regional faults (Dongjug—Mainling(1), Anigiao(2) and Jali(3), Guyu(4) faults in EHS, Ailaoshan—Red River(5), Lancangjiang(6), Gaoligong(7), Binlangjiang(8) and Magok(9) faults in WSY) (see Fig.1), especially on abundant geochronological dating of the mylonitic rocks along these faults, and coupled with magmato\|metamorphic sequences of this region, we try to deal with the temporal and spatial relationships of collisional process to answer questions such as: (1) when did collision start ? (2) is thrusting as a initial and dominant deformation mode to absorb the crustal shortening after suturing, or earlier thrusting usually followed by large\|scale strike\|slip faults? (3) are the two structural patterns coeval at times, or do they occur alternatively during deformation history? (4) are the collisional and associate uplift processes a continuous one or periodic? Insight into such questions is crucial for better understanding of the continental deformation and testing the models available or constraining a new one.

A systematic strategy for multi-period heat exchanger network retrofit under multiple practical restrictions

A systematic strategy for retrofit of the multi-period heat exchanger network (HEN) on the basis of the multi-objective optimization is developed. In this three-stage procedure, a simplified multi-objective optimization model of the multi-period HEN is first established and then solved to target the retrofit, aiming to minimizing the total annual cost and total annual CO_2 emissions. The obtained Pareto front represents series of retrofit targets under different emission limitations, from which the most desirable one can be selected. The matching of the existing and the required heat exchangers is further implemented to finalize the retrofit, which will meet the practical retrofit requirements and matching restrictions. The application of the proposed procedure is illustrated through a case study of a HEN in a vacuum gas oil hydro-treating unit.

Design of multi-band frequency selective surfaces using multi-periodicity combined elements

Traditional multi-band frequency selective surface(FSS) approaches are hard to achieve a perfect resonance response in a wide band due to the limit of the onset grating lobe frequency determined by the array. To solve this problem,an approach of combining elements in different period to build a hybrid array is presented. The results of series of numerical simulation show that multi-periodicity combined element FSS,which are designed using this approach,usually have much weaker grating lobes than the traditional FSS.Furthermore,their frequency response can be well predicted through the properties of their member element FSS.A prediction method for estimating the degree of expected grating lobe energy loss in designing multi-band FSS using this approach is provided.

The Impact of General Correlation Under Multi-Period Mean-Variance Asset-Liability Portfolio Management

This paper studies the multi-period mean-variance(MV)asset-liability portfolio management problem(MVAL),in which the portfolio is constructed by risky assets and liability.It is worth mentioning that the impact of general correlation is considered,i.e.,the random returns of risky assets and the liability are not only statistically correlated to each other but also correlated to themselves in different time periods.Such a model with a general correlation structure extends the classical multiperiod MVAL models with assumption of independent returns.The authors derive the explicit portfolio policy and the MV efficient frontier for this problem.Moreover,a numerical example is presented to illustrate the efficiency of the proposed solution scheme.

A Multi-Period Constrained Multi-Objective Evolutionary Algorithm with Orthogonal Learning for Solving the Complex Carbon Neutral Stock Portfolio Optimization Model

Financial market has systemic complexity and uncertainty.For investors,return and risk often coexist.How to rationally allocate funds into different assets and achieve excess returns with effectively controlling risk are main problems to be solved in the field of portfolio optimization(PO).At present,due to the influence of modeling and algorithm solving,the PO models established by many researchers are still mainly focused on single-stage single-objective models or single-stage multiobjective models.PO is actually considered as a multi-stage multi-objective optimization problem in real investment scenarios.It is more difficult than the previous single-stage PO model for meeting the realistic requirements.In this paper,the authors proposed a mean-improved stable tail adjusted return ratio-maximum drawdown rate(M-ISTARR-MD)PO model which effectively characterizes the real investment scenario.In order to solve the multi-stage multi-objective PO model with complex multi-constraints,the authors designed a multi-stage constrained multi-objective evolutionary algorithm with orthogonal learning(MSCMOEA-OL).Comparing with four well-known intelligence algorithms,the MSCMOEA-OL algorithm has competitive advantages in solving the M-ISTARR-MD model on the proposed constructed carbon neutral stock dataset.This paper provides a new way to construct and solve the complex PO model.

碳交易如何影响绿色低碳发展?——基于多期DID与连续DID的经验研究

碳交易如何影响以绿色全要素生产率为核心指标的绿色低碳发展,需进行实证检验。基于2005—2019年中国省际面板数据,运用多期DID模型评估碳交易对绿色低碳发展的影响及其作用机制。结果表明:碳交易促进了试点地区绿色低碳发展,在经过安慰剂、PSM-DID、剔除用能权交易试点样本等一系列稳健性检验后,结论仍成立;碳交易实施对能源结构优化、产业结构升级与技术进步具有正向影响,绿色能源消费占比增加、高技术产业结构提升与技术进步是碳交易提高试点地区绿色低碳发展水平的主要机制。构建连续DID模型,研究碳交易规模对绿色低碳发展的影响,发现碳交易规模扩大对绿色低碳发展水平具有正向影响。研究结论为碳交易助力绿色低碳发展提供了经验支持,也为区域碳市场及全国统一碳市场的进一步扩容提供了有价值的启示。

“一带一路”倡议与全球价值链升级——基于沿线国家的实证数据

基于2007—2020年“一带一路”沿线国家的样本数据,利用多期双重差分模型实证检验了“一带一路”倡议对沿线国家的价值链升级作用。研究结果证实:“一带一路”倡议对于沿线国家全球价值链发展具有显著正向影响。机制分析表明:“一带一路”倡议对沿线国家存在“虹吸效应”,有利于沿线国家的发展。此外,政策沟通对于倡议的推行具有积极的促进作用。研究结果不仅证实了倡议对于沿线国家价值链升级的正向影响,也论证了其中存在的影响机制,为未来进一步的研究提供了理论支撑和有益探索。

行政区划调整与城市空间结构演化——基于撤县设区的视角

在新型城镇化建设对城市紧凑集约发展提出更高要求的背景下,探讨行政区划调整对城市空间结构的影响具有重要意义。基于2000—2016年全国范围内演进的撤县设区数据,深入考察了撤县设区带来的城市空间结构演化效应的研究发现:(1)撤县设区促使了城市空间形态松散化和内部低密度发展,该结论在考虑多种指标、方法以及政策滞后效应之后仍成立。(2)撤县设区政策对东部城市的空间结构松散化影响更强,且不利于其发挥中心集聚优势;相比于建设规制较弱的城市,规制较强的城市受到撤县设区对城市空间结构分散化的影响更为显著。(3)进一步研究表明,自主选择型撤县设区对城市空间结构分散化的影响更加明显,而顺应融入型撤县设区则会在一定程度上促进城市空间结构趋于紧凑化。

高速铁路对城市空间结构的影响及机制研究

为探索高速铁路在城市空间格局演化中的作用,利用夜间灯光数据和LandScan人口分布数据构造了表征城市空间结构的城市蔓延指数,运用多期DID模型和工具变量法实证检验了高速铁路对城市空间结构的影响及作用机制。研究发现:高速铁路开通显著促进了城市空间结构的分散化,在考虑内生性问题及一系列稳健性检验后该结论依然成立。异质性分析表明,高速铁路对城市空间结构的重塑作用在中小规模城市和位于三大城市群以外的城市中更显著。机制分析发现,高速铁路能够通过推动产业结构高级化和建成区面积扩张导致城市空间结构趋于分散化,劳动力集聚则在高速铁路与城市空间结构之间起到遮掩效应。研究对于更好地推进高速铁路建设和引导城市空间结构有序发展具有重要意义。

基于谈判博弈的三峡梯级蓄水期多目标调度

汛后蓄水期是三峡梯级防洪向兴利调度转换的重要时间窗口,不合理的蓄水调度将对梯级防洪、发电兴利、生态效益造成不利影响。本文以发电量最大、防洪库容占用比最小以及修正流量偏差最小作为三峡梯级蓄水期调度目标构建优化调度模型,进而引入谈判博弈模型将各个调度目标作为不同谈判主体,通过逐步缩减各调度目标期望效益值进行多轮谈判,最终得到纳什均衡调度方案。实例计算表明,应用谈判博弈模型能够求解得出三峡梯级蓄水期不同调度主体的最优蓄水调度方案,同时该蓄水调度方案也能够达到其他调度主体期望效益值,被其他目标主体所接受。研究成果可为三峡梯级多目标调度决策提供新的思路。

城市商业银行设立对地方制造业企业高质量发展的影响:来自准自然实验的证据

基于中国沪深A股制造业上市公司2004—2020年的数据,以城市商业银行的设立为一个准自然实验,构建多期双重差分模型,检验城商行设立对地方制造业企业高质量发展的影响。研究表明:第一,城商行设立显著促进地方制造业企业高质量发展,尤其对劳动密集型和资本密集型制造业企业的促进作用更强。第二,城商行设立通过提高地区信贷规模与FDI流入、促进制造业企业的投资水平与创新水平,推动地方制造业企业高质量发展。第三,城商行设立带来的积极效应集中在地区市场化程度较高的地方制造业企业,以及中小规模、与银行关系密切的制造业企业。因此,城市应充分利用城商行带来的优质资源,促进制造业企业的投资与创新,实现地方制造业企业的高质量发展。

新型城镇化综合试点政策对共同富裕的影响研究——基于四川省18地市数据

将新型城镇化综合试点政策作为一次实验准则,基于2012-2021年四川省18个地市级地区的面板数据,运用多期双重差分法,通过构建双向固定效应模型研究新型城镇化综合试点政策对四川省共同富裕的影响及作用机制。研究发现,新型城镇化显著促进了试点地区的共同富裕发展,其作用效应为2%。政策激励效应在经过安慰剂、PSM-DlD法等稳定性检验后依然成立。机制分析发现,金融发展水平及经济密度是新型城镇化促进地区共同富裕发展的两条重要途径。

热连轧系统的周期更换决策

对热连轧系统的预防性维修更换周期进行研究。首先,将系统抽象为相互独立的多部件系统。然后,根据各个部件所服从的分布,利用最小顺序统计量得到系统所服从的分布,并借助系统和单个部件分布函数间的关系,从理论上分析了系统的可靠性与部件数量之间的关系。接着,以系统的单位时间总期望费用最小为目标,建立了更换周期模型,给出了预防性更换周期满足的解析表达式。最后,以部件寿命常用的分布——威布尔分布为例,给出了模型的离散求解过程,求解出系统的预防性更换周期。同时,进一步展示了在多种相关费用情形下,系统中部件数量对系统的预防性维修更换周期的影响,分析了各种情况产生的原因。

基于Sentinel-1时序数据的山地冰川表面消融变化研究--以老虎沟12号冰川为例

冰川是影响气候变化的主要因素,合成孔径雷达(SAR)不仅具有较高空间分辨率和多极化等特点,而且对冰雪融化引起的介电常数变化较为敏感,已成为山地冰川表面消融变化监测的重要数据源。基于Sentinel-1时序数据,提出了一种综合应用多时相多极化SAR变化检测算法和Sigmoid函数的冰川表面消融监测方法。以祁连山老虎沟12号冰川为研究区,利用“中心线-圆”方法获得的冰川东、西支64个样区,通过各点2019-2020年124个时相的SAR后向散射系数变化特征确定了7个典型样区及2019和2020年冰川消融期;基于同轨道参考影像与多时相融雪影像对比,分别获得变化监测影像VV和VH极化后向散射系数,对其进行权重组合后提取湿雪像元;通过Sigmoid函数并结合湿雪平均海拔高度提取干雪,从而得到2年冰川消融期内16个时相的冰川表面干湿雪分布。利用2019年09月01日无人机数字正射影像(DOM)以及与Sentinel-1邻近日期5景Sentinel-2影像对提取结果进行精度验证,并结合冰川上气象站点气温和降水数据对误差结果进行深入分析。实验结果表明,该方法能够有效提取冰川表面干、湿雪分布,总体分类精度OA高达96%,Kappa系数高达0.84。老虎沟12号冰川消融期及覆盖各类型消融变化规律存在年际变化:2019年冰川的消融期为5月初至9月中下旬,2020年的消融期为6月中下旬至9月初;2019年从消融季开始,冰川表面干雪面积迅速减小,而湿雪与冰川冰面积在整个消融期均较大,但随着强降雪出现,干雪面积骤然上升,2020年冰川冰和湿雪面积变化明显,冰川冰面积持续增加,湿雪面积持续减小,而干雪面积在高海拔区趋于稳定。

含分布电源配电网多时段线性化二阶锥松弛算法研究

针对分布式电源接入配电网影响系统电压分布和潮流分析、造成系统电能质量下降的问题,建立系统优化模型,对系统电压、潮流进行分析与优化,提出含分布式电源的配电网多时段线性化二阶锥松弛优化算法。对分布式电源接入的配电网进行潮流分析,建立分布式配电网最优潮流优化模型;对分布式配电网潮流优化模型进行简化处理,针对潮流分析中非凸非线性,提出多时段二阶锥松弛优化算法;针对电容器组、有载调压变压器的非凸非线性问题,进行分段线性化处理。仿真结果表明,提出的算法能合理调度有载调压变压器、电容器组和分布电源的出力,有效降低网损,减小电网电压偏差。

计及多时段尺度与地域分层的多能互补系统经济调度

在考虑电热能源互联基础上,提出了计及多时段尺度与地域分层的电热多能互补系统经济调度策略,该策略从单时段和多时段角度出发,综合考虑局域级和区域级的能量平衡关系,以实现电热多能互补系统经济调度为目标。首先,在采集局域级各类能源资源数据与信息的基础上建立母线式电、热能平衡模型;然后,提出区域级能量平衡公共母线式模型,并采用小容量机组等效思想来等效聚合同类型机组;其次,建立典型局域级电热互联能源系统模型;最后,对电热多能互补系统经济调度求解,并输出经济调度结果信息。对电热多能互补系统的经济调度的有效性与合理性通过仿真算例已经得到验证,为区域级电热多能互补系统多能互补利用、资源协调配合、经济高效运行及分析提供参考与理论指导。

平均降采样多周期微分均值的旋转部件故障特征增强方法

为解决编码器的瞬时角速度(Instantaneous Angular Speed,IAS)信号中旋转部件故障特征微弱的难题,本文提出一种平均降采样多周期微分均值(Average Down⁃Sampling Multi⁃period Differential Means,ADSMPDM)的故障特征增强方法。基于IAS信号的估计特性,开展了IAS信号的平均降采样研究,验证了平均降采样具有抑制随机噪声的特性;基于平均降采样抑制随机噪声特性、降低计算成本和减小存储空间的优势,结合多周期微分均值的累积特性,提出一种ADSMPDM算法对原始IAS信号中的旋转部件故障分量进行增强处理;通过阶次谱分析揭示故障特征。采用仿真数据和实验数据进行验证分析,并与快速谱峭度、可调整多点优化最小熵反卷积、离散随机分离和谱幅值调制算法进行对比,验证了ADSMPDM算法增强旋转部件故障特征的有效性和优势。