An Environmental Risk Evaluation Method Employing Atmospheric Dispersion Models and GIS

This study aims to develop a method for evaluating the environmental risk of harmful chemical substances released from specific sources, using two atmospheric dispersion models and GIS (Geographic Information Systems). In the first stage of evaluation, ADMER was used to conduct a wide-area evaluation which covered the entire area of the evaluation target region. In the second stage, METI-LIS was used to conduct a detailed limited-area evaluation which targeted the vicinity of sources. In this study, incinerators were selected as sources and dioxins were selected as harmful chemical substances. The area selected for evaluation was the Tokyo Metropolis in Japan, and the evaluation method proposed in this study was used to evaluate environmental risk. Through the use of atmospheric dispersion models and GIS, the behavior of dioxins emitted into the atmosphere from incinerators was estimated. By superimposing atmospheric levels and population data, the amounts of dioxins that humans exposed to were found. Additionally, by superimposing deposition amounts and land use data, the amounts of dioxins accumulated in each land environment were found. Conducting these steps enabled the impact of dioxins on humans and the environment to be grasped quantitatively and visually, and the risk that dioxins emitted from incinerators pose to the environment to be evaluated.

Study on Conventional Atmospheric Dispersion Models in China,America and Canada

The conventional atmospheric dispersion models used in China (CRADM), America (HPDM) and Canada (AMS) are investigated. The main differences between the three models are described, and the various aspects of CRADM, HPDM and AMS for same input are compared and discussed. Some problems in application of atmospheric dispersion models to environmental impact assessment are analyzed and suggestions for rivision are proposed. Results show that the Briggs plume rise formula in neutral condition overestimates the real rise due to the fact that the accumulative effect of ambient turbulence on plume is not considered in his model.

Modeling the Dispersion and Atmospheric Mitigation of Pollutants in the Dibamba-Douala Thermal Power Plant

This work simulates the dispersion and atmospheric attenuation of pollutants from the Dibamba-Douala thermal power plant. The objective of this research is to study the dispersion of air pollutants and mitigate the impact of pollutants on the populations living around the power plant. The methodology used is as follows: the Gaussian model is used for the representation of the dispersion in the form of a plume, the finite difference method for digital resolution. Finally, dispersion charts are constructed which allow the heights of the chimneys to be fixed for which the concentrations of pollutants discharged comply with ambient air quality standards. The results obtained using the simulation made in the MATLAB software version 2016 show that, for a wind regime of 1.5 m/s;we have a predicted distance of 150 m at which the concentration is canceled out. Then, for the wind speed of 2 m/s;we had a predicted distance of 125 m and finally for a wind speed of 2.5 m/s;we observed the 120 m distance at which the concentration is canceled. In addition, for the same wind regimes, the attenuation of pollutants at ground level is obtained for a height of 60 m.

Simplified Atmospheric Dispersion Model andModel Based Real Field Estimation System ofAir Pollution

The atmospheric dispersion model has been well developed and applied in pollution emergency and prediction. Based on thesophisticated air diffusion model, this paper proposes a simplified model and some optimization about meteorological andgeological conditions. The model is suitable for what is proposed as Real Field Monitor and Estimation system. The principle ofsimplified diffusion model and its optimization is studied. The design of Real Field Monitor system based on this model and itsfundamental implementations are introduced.

Random walk modeling of wake dispersion for the exhaust tower of an underground tunnel in urban area

In this paper, some experimental studies on the impact of effluent from an exhaust tower of an underground tunnel with special construction are reported. By measuring the flow field downstream of the tower in NJU meteorological wind tunnel, some flow characteristics in the make area were established. Based on these, an advanced random\|walk dispersion model was set up and applied successfully to the simulation of dispersion in the wake area. The modelling results were in accordance with wind tunnel measurements. The computed maximum of ground surface concentration in the building case was a factor of 3-4 higher than that in the flat case and appeared much closer to the source. The simulation indicated that random walk modelling is an effective and practical tool for the wake stream impact assessment.

Review of Air Dispersion Modelling Approaches to Assess the Risk of Wind-Borne Spread of Foot-and-Mouth Disease Virus

Foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) is one of the most economically serious veterinary pathogens due to its negative effects on livestock and its highly infectious nature via a variety of transmission paths through oral and inhalation routes. Measures to enhance outbreak management can be designed according to analytical results predicted by mathematical models for wind-borne dispersion, an important path of virus transmission. Accurate atmospheric dispersion models are useful tools for properly determining risk management plans, while inaccurate models may conversely lead to accidental loss in two possible ways. Overly strict measures, e.g., slaughter for too wide an area, can cause severe economic difficulties, including irreversible loss of business operations for a number of farms. On the contrary, inestimable loss potentially caused by lax controls is a persistent threat. In this paper, available modelling procedures for forecasting the spread of FMDV, which have been used since the 1970s, each having its advantages and limitations, are reviewed for the purpose of ensuring suitable application in various conditions of any future emergency cases.

JRODOS模拟核事故时核素扩散及剂量时空分布

核事故时核素扩散范围和造成的辐射剂量是核电厂事故应急措施制定的重要参考,利用JRODOS软件模拟了不同气象源和大气扩散模型对核电厂核素浓度和辐射剂量时空分布的影响。结果表明:WRF气象场情景下核素的扩散范围广,FNL气象场情景下核素浓度和有效剂量区域均值较高。不同大气扩散模型中LASAT模型模拟的有效剂量最高。这为核事故后果评价数据来源和大气扩散模型选择提供了依据。

The comparison of ensemble or deterministic dispersion modeling on global dispersion during Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear accident

Ensemble forcasting,originally developed for weather prediction,is lately being extended to atmospheric dispersion applications,which is a new,effective methodology for improving the atmospheric dispersion numerical modeling.In March 2011,due to the massive 9.0 earthquakes and ensuing tsunami that struck off the northern coast of the island of Honshu,the Fukushima Nuclear Plant I had the substantial leak of radioactive materials into surrounding environment and atmosphere.To aim at the global dispersion modeling of atmospheric radionuclides from Fukushima Nuclear Accident,this paper presents two approaches of atmospheric dispersion forecasting:ensemble dispersion modeling(EDM) and deterministic dispersion modeling(DDM),conducts the globally dispersion modeling cases for Fukushima nuclear accident,and analyzes and evaluates the simulation results using observation data.In this paper,EDM includes three different perturbation methods:meteorological perturbation method,turbulence perturbation method,and physical parameterization ensemble forecasting method.The simulation results show that the trajectories from EDM have a better performance,which is in better agreement with the atmospheric circulation and observation data; the spread from DDM is slower and not as far as EDM.Additionally,the results from EDM display a better performance in the modeling of transport from Japan to China East Sea on April 4.The reasons for these results are:the techniques of MET and TUR are performed by adding perturbations on mean wind and turbulent velocity,respectively; the various different flow fields will result in far spreading in horizontal and the simulation results closer to observation; PHY is performed by using different diffusion physical parameterizations and produces the perturbations on vertical wind,which results the spreading in smaller range and discontinuous in horizontal.Finally,the comparative analysis between modeling results and observation data shows that all cases results are in good agreement with trends of observed radionuclides surface concentration; however,the modeling surface concentration is smaller than observation,especially in DDM and PHY.Furthermore,the EDM results show that MET and TUR are of more evolutionary advantage than PHY in modeling of average and maximum concentration.Therefore,this study can serve as a reference to atmospheric dispersion and environmental emergency response(EER).

大气折射率高度分布模式及其应用

光束通过大气时,由于大气密度的不均匀性使光束发生偏折,光传播的程长增加及其轨迹产生弯曲,由此造成待测目标的角位置和距离的测量误差。分析了近几年新疆戈壁地区大气参数探空数据的主要结果,给出了大气参数的平均高度分布廓线,依据光波波段的折射率公式,利用以上结果计算了该地区折射率高度分布数据,通过模式拟合给出了该地区大气折射率指数分布模式和三参数伽马分布模式。详细分析了大气压强、温度、波长等因素单独对大气折射率的影响。应用该地区的大气折射率高度分布模式对光传输的大气折射效应进行了理论分析,给出了整层激光传输的折射角、蒙气差和大气色散。以期对该地区光传输折射效应进行修正。

AERMOD大气扩散模型研究综述

AERMOD模型是美国环保局和美国气象学会联合开发的一种大气扩散模型,它采用了最新的大气边界层和大气扩散理论,替代ISC(Industrial Source Complex)模型成为美国的新一代法规模型,该模型已被列入我国环境影响评价技术导则--大气环境(HJ/T2.2-2008)推荐模型之一。国内外针对该模型开展了很多研究,主要集中在:AERMOD模型与其它大气扩散模型的对比研究和评价;AERMOD模型运行所需气象数据的模拟以及AERMOD模型在某些领域中的具体应用。AERMOD模型较我国旧版环境影响评价技术导则--大气环境(HJ/T2.2-93)推荐模型更能反映污染物的实际扩散规律,但由于目前该模型系统在国内的应用不算广泛,而且该模型本身也一直在不断完善当中,因此,为验证它的可靠性、合理性及实用性并确定其预报准确率,建议在该模型推广应用到一个新的地区或城市之前应当经过模型评估过程。

AERMOD模式系统理论

作为新一代法规性质的稳态大气扩散模式,AERMOD将最新的大气边界层和大气扩散理论应用到空气污染扩散模式中。AERMOD具有下述特点:(1)按空气湍流结构和尺度的概念,湍流扩散由参数化方程给出,稳定度用连续参数表示;(2)中等浮力通量对流条件采用非正态的PDF模式;(3)考虑了对流条件下浮力烟羽和混合层顶的相互作用;(4)AERMOD模式系统可以处理:地面源和高架源、平坦和复杂地形和城市边界层;(5)AERMAP提出了一个有效高度对流场的影响。示踪试验表明,AERMOD模拟的结果比较理想。

中国法规大气扩散模式及其与其他模式的比较

介绍了中国法规性大气扩散模式（ＣＲＡＤＭ），分析了ＣＲＡＤＭ和西方一些模式（如ＨＰＤＭ，ＡＭＳ）的差别。采用同样条件作为输入，比较并讨论了ＣＲＡＤＭ，ＨＰＤＭ和ＡＭＳ在各方面的性能差异。分析了中国大气扩散模式在环境影响评价应用中出现的一些问题，提出了改进建议。特别地，研究表明中性条件下Ｂｒｉｇｇｓ烟气抬升公式对实际抬升有过高估计。

化学危险品事故应急响应大气扩散模型评述

针对化学危险品的事故要求能迅速地对事故的性质和可能产生危险的区域进行辨识,并能尽早地告知有关事故的性质以及可能的危险区域范围。为了快速确定事故性质及危险区域范围,通常利用应急响应系统,其核心是大气扩散模型。笔者概述了多种大气扩散模型,对当前应用较为广泛的应急大气扩散模型:SLAB,DEGADIS,ALOHA,ARCHIE,DEMRA和LPDM等作了深入剖析;对其应用作了评价;对应急大气扩散模型研究提出了建议。

珠江三角洲土地利用变化对特征大气污染物扩散的影响

在珠江三角洲两种下垫面条件下,应用CALPUFF大气污染扩散模式,对特征污染物SO2、SO42-的扩散进行数值模拟,探讨大规模土地利用变化,尤其是城镇建设用地增加,对珠江三角洲地区大气污染物扩散的影响,并通过对4个典型区污染物月均质量浓度变化特征分析,揭示土地利用变化对不同地区的污染物分布的影响机制。模拟结果表明:土地利用变化,尤其是城镇建设用地增加,不利于污染物扩散,污染源下风方向地区受影响较大,污染物质量浓度明显升高,SO2和SO42-年均质量浓度分别增加14.07%和3.31%;受影响范围、变化幅度与污染源排污强度呈正相关,变化幅度亦与污染源距离远近呈负相关。土地利用变化后,尤其是城镇建设用地增加,四个典型区SO2月均质量浓度都表现为升高趋势,且冬季SO2质量浓度升高幅度最大,夏季升高幅度最小,临近污染源密集区的两个典型区SO2月均质量浓度分别增加33.6%和26.3%。土地利用变化不仅改变局地的污染扩散,也会对区域的污染扩散有一定影响,尤其对污染源分布密集区的大气污染物扩散影响强度最大。因此,建议人类在城市化建设过程中尽可能保留自然斑块,消除人工下垫面对污染物扩散的负面影响。

铀矿通风尾气中气态放射性核素氡大气扩散数值模拟

以某铀矿排风井为对象建立物理模型,通过建立核素氡扩散数学模型,利用CFD方法耦合求解得到不同大气风速(0.5,1.0,2.0,4.0 m/s)和下垫面粗糙度(0.1 m,1.0 m)下的大气风场结构及核素氡的浓度分布状况。研究结果表明:大气风速和下垫面粗糙度对核素氡的迁移扩散具有重要的影响;当大气风速小于0.5 m/s时,此时地面粗糙度对核素氡迁移扩散起主导作用。地面粗糙度越大,近距离的氡气浓度越高,局部污染越严重,主要污染范围在100 m以内;当大气风速大于2.0 m/s时,大气风速对核素氡迁移扩散起主导作用。大气风速越大,氡气迁移扩散能力越强,污染距离越大,局部污染较轻,主要污染范围在400 m以内。文中数值计算方法和结论可以为铀矿区辐射防护及新建铀矿山选址提供参考。

基于大气污染扩散模型的空气污染多维动态可视化表达研究

针对现有空气污染可视化表达方法不能有效集成地理信息、可视化效果差、信息维度低的问题,基于大气污染扩散模型模拟计算结果进行了三维空间空气污染多维动态可视化表达研究,提出了空气污染的多维动态可视化表达方案,详细论述了空气污染研究区域三维地理场景构建、污染浓度值与颜色的映射、基于切片的空气污染表达、基于立方体的空气污染表达、任意垂直线/面的空气污染表达等5种空间污染可视化表达方法与关键技术。最后以珠三角空气污染扩散模拟为例,开发了原型系统,进行了5种时空可视化表达与分析试验。试验结果表明,所采用的技术方案能够有效集成高精度大范围地理信息,能实现较好的空气污染可视化表达效果,能有效反映空气污染的时空分布,可以为空气污染管理人员提供有效的决策支持。

突发性大气污染事件数字化动态应急预案系统及其应用

针对近些年频繁发生的突发性大气污染事件,构建了数字化动态应急预案系统。该系统由基础信息数据库、气象环境模式与健康风险评估系统、数字化动态应急预案三部分组成,并利用地理信息系统将三者有机结合,将事故基本信息、事故发展预测及救援状况直观、动态地展现在系统界面,使应急行动得以及时、高效地展开。实地外场综合应急演习证明,该系统技术路线稳定畅通,运行高效,功能强大,具有较好的可行性和实效性。

CALPUFF在复杂地形条件下的近场大气扩散模拟研究

利用在湖南省丘陵河谷地区开展的高时空分辨率大气扩散综合实验资料,研究美国国家环保局(USEPA)推荐的导则模式CALPUFF(California Puff Model)在复杂地形条件下近场应用的适用性。采用不同时间分辨率的诊断风场和不同扩散参数计算方案,模拟不同气象条件下的近场地面浓度分布。通过与示踪实验实测采样浓度对比分析,得到:采用实测湍流廓线资料计算扩散参数能够较好地模拟近场浓度分布;将实测湍流速度标准差与稳定度参数的拟合关系替代CALPUFF默认的湍流参数化方案,能够改进默认相似性理论方案的模拟结果;风速较大、风向稳定时,模拟结果对风场的时间分辨率和扩散参数计算方案的敏感性较弱;风速较小、风向多变时,需采用逐10 min风场模拟地面浓度场分布,且实测湍流方案模拟结果相较于相似性理论方案模拟值偏大,并更接近实测值。总之,采用逐时风场和实测湍流方案,或逐10 min风场和修正后的相似性理论方案的CALPUFF模式能较好地模拟研究区域复杂地形的近场峰值浓度。

城市大气污染扩散GIS模拟分析——以福州市为例

以福州市为例,分析了GIS在环境模型研究中的主要应用范围;剖析了GIS与环境模型结合的三种层次。在 GIS技术支持下建立了城市点源和线源大气污染扩散模型,采用大气污染扩散模型与GIS的嵌入式的紧密集成技术,进行福州市大气污染扩散模拟,直接采用等值线的方式表达大气污染物在不同气象条件下空间分布模拟结果, 为城市大气污染源的管理和时空模拟提供了一个良好的可视化分析环境。模拟结果表明:2000年福州市区工业路附近区域与福新路附近区域出现SO2高浓度;湖东路、八一七路、福新路、六一北路围成区域出现NOx高浓度,为机动车污染严重的区域。污染物浓度分布与污染源的空间分布和排放量密切相关。

CALRoads模式在上海市典型道路CO扩散预测中的应用

根据上海市市区、郊区典型主干道的气象条件、车流量、车型比例,以及CO小时质量浓度的监测资料,采用CALRoads模式中CALINE4和CAL3QHC模块,对郊区主干道和市区典型路口的适用条件分别进行了验证。结果表明,在稳定的气象条件下,CALINE4模式在模拟周围相对空旷主干道附近的CO质量浓度时,具有较好的结果,将CAL3QHC模式应用于市区典型交叉口,可以得到同监测值相对吻合的模拟结果,但准确性低于郊区。应用CALRoads模型对未来城郊典型道路附近CO高峰小时质量浓度的发展趋势进行了预测,并基于情景分析给出了减少交通污染的对策建议。