Multi-scale physics-informed neural networks for solving high Reynolds number boundary layer flows based on matched asymptotic expansions

Multi-scale system remains a classical scientific problem in fluid dynamics,biology,etc.In the present study,a scheme of multi-scale Physics-informed neural networks is proposed to solve the boundary layer flow at high Reynolds numbers without any data.The flow is divided into several regions with different scales based on Prandtl's boundary theory.Different regions are solved with governing equations in different scales.The method of matched asymptotic expansions is used to make the flow field continuously.A flow on a semi infinite flat plate at a high Reynolds number is considered a multi-scale problem because the boundary layer scale is much smaller than the outer flow scale.The results are compared with the reference numerical solutions,which show that the msPINNs can solve the multi-scale problem of the boundary layer in high Reynolds number flows.This scheme can be developed for more multi-scale problems in the future.

A semi-analytical model for coupled flow in stress-sensitive multi-scale shale reservoirs with fractal characteristics

A large number of nanopores and complex fracture structures in shale reservoirs results in multi-scale flow of oil. With the development of shale oil reservoirs, the permeability of multi-scale media undergoes changes due to stress sensitivity, which plays a crucial role in controlling pressure propagation and oil flow. This paper proposes a multi-scale coupled flow mathematical model of matrix nanopores, induced fractures, and hydraulic fractures. In this model, the micro-scale effects of shale oil flow in fractal nanopores, fractal induced fracture network, and stress sensitivity of multi-scale media are considered. We solved the model iteratively using Pedrosa transform, semi-analytic Segmented Bessel function, Laplace transform. The results of this model exhibit good agreement with the numerical solution and field production data, confirming the high accuracy of the model. As well, the influence of stress sensitivity on permeability, pressure and production is analyzed. It is shown that the permeability and production decrease significantly when induced fractures are weakly supported. Closed induced fractures can inhibit interporosity flow in the stimulated reservoir volume (SRV). It has been shown in sensitivity analysis that hydraulic fractures are beneficial to early production, and induced fractures in SRV are beneficial to middle production. The model can characterize multi-scale flow characteristics of shale oil, providing theoretical guidance for rapid productivity evaluation.

Semi-analytical solution for drained expansion analysis of a hollow cylinder of critical state soils

The expansion of a thick-walled hollow cylinder in soil is of non-self-similar nature that the stress/deformation paths are not the same for different soil material points.As a result,this problem cannot be solved by the common self-similar-based similarity techniques.This paper proposes a novel,exact solution for rigorous drained expansion analysis of a hollow cylinder of critical state soils.Considering stress-dependent elastic moduli of soils,new analytical stress and displacement solutions for the nonself-similar problem are developed taking the small strain assumption in the elastic zone.In the plastic zone,the cavity expansion response is formulated into a set of first-order partial differential equations(PDEs)with the combination use of Eulerian and Lagrangian descriptions,and a novel solution algorithm is developed to efficiently solve this complex boundary value problem.The solution is presented in a general form and thus can be useful for a wide range of soils.With the new solution,the non-self-similar nature induced by the finite outer boundary is clearly demonstrated and highlighted,which is found to be greatly different to the behaviour of cavity expansion in infinite soil mass.The present solution may serve as a benchmark for verifying the performance of advanced numerical techniques with critical state soil models and be used to capture the finite boundary effect for pressuremeter tests in small-sized calibration chambers.

Swelling pressure evolution characterization of strong expansive soil considering the influence of reserved expansion deformation

Numerous engineering cases have demonstrated that the expansive soil channel slope remains susceptible to damage with the implementation of a rigid or closed protective structure. It is common for the protective structure to experience bulging failure due to excessive swelling pressure. To investigate the swelling pressure properties of expansive soil, the constant volume test was employed to study the influence of water content and reserved expansion deformation on the characteristics of swelling pressure in strong expansive soils, and also to explore the evolution mechanism of the swelling pressure. The findings demonstrate that the swelling pressure-time curve can be classified into swelling pressure-time softening and swelling pressure-time stability type. The swelling pressuretime curve of the specimen with low water content is the swelling pressure-time softening type, and the softening level will be weakened with increasing reserved expansion deformation. Besides, the maximum swelling pressure Psmax decreases with increasing water content and reserved expansion deformation, especially for expansion ratio η from 24% to 37%. The reserved deformation has little effect on reducing Psmax when it is beyond 7% of the expansion rate. The specimen with low water content has a more homogeneous structure due to the significant expansion-filling effect, and the fracture and reorganization of the aggregates in the specimens with low water content cause the swelling pressure-time softening behavior. In addition, the proposed swelling pressure-time curve prediction model has a good prediction on the test results. If necessary, a deformation space of about 7% expansion rate is recommended to be reserved in the engineering to reduce the swelling pressure except for keeping a stable water content.

YOLO-MFD:Remote Sensing Image Object Detection with Multi-Scale Fusion Dynamic Head

Remote sensing imagery,due to its high altitude,presents inherent challenges characterized by multiple scales,limited target areas,and intricate backgrounds.These inherent traits often lead to increased miss and false detection rates when applying object recognition algorithms tailored for remote sensing imagery.Additionally,these complexities contribute to inaccuracies in target localization and hinder precise target categorization.This paper addresses these challenges by proposing a solution:The YOLO-MFD model(YOLO-MFD:Remote Sensing Image Object Detection withMulti-scale Fusion Dynamic Head).Before presenting our method,we delve into the prevalent issues faced in remote sensing imagery analysis.Specifically,we emphasize the struggles of existing object recognition algorithms in comprehensively capturing critical image features amidst varying scales and complex backgrounds.To resolve these issues,we introduce a novel approach.First,we propose the implementation of a lightweight multi-scale module called CEF.This module significantly improves the model’s ability to comprehensively capture important image features by merging multi-scale feature information.It effectively addresses the issues of missed detection and mistaken alarms that are common in remote sensing imagery.Second,an additional layer of small target detection heads is added,and a residual link is established with the higher-level feature extraction module in the backbone section.This allows the model to incorporate shallower information,significantly improving the accuracy of target localization in remotely sensed images.Finally,a dynamic head attentionmechanism is introduced.This allows themodel to exhibit greater flexibility and accuracy in recognizing shapes and targets of different sizes.Consequently,the precision of object detection is significantly improved.The trial results show that the YOLO-MFD model shows improvements of 6.3%,3.5%,and 2.5%over the original YOLOv8 model in Precision,map@0.5 and map@0.5:0.95,separately.These results illustrate the clear advantages of the method.

MSD-Net: Pneumonia Classification Model Based on Multi-Scale Directional Feature Enhancement

Computer-aided diagnosis of pneumonia based on deep learning is a research hotspot.However,there are some problems that the features of different sizes and different directions are not sufficient when extracting the features in lung X-ray images.A pneumonia classification model based on multi-scale directional feature enhancement MSD-Net is proposed in this paper.The main innovations are as follows:Firstly,the Multi-scale Residual Feature Extraction Module(MRFEM)is designed to effectively extract multi-scale features.The MRFEM uses dilated convolutions with different expansion rates to increase the receptive field and extract multi-scale features effectively.Secondly,the Multi-scale Directional Feature Perception Module(MDFPM)is designed,which uses a three-branch structure of different sizes convolution to transmit direction feature layer by layer,and focuses on the target region to enhance the feature information.Thirdly,the Axial Compression Former Module(ACFM)is designed to perform global calculations to enhance the perception ability of global features in different directions.To verify the effectiveness of the MSD-Net,comparative experiments and ablation experiments are carried out.In the COVID-19 RADIOGRAPHY DATABASE,the Accuracy,Recall,Precision,F1 Score,and Specificity of MSD-Net are 97.76%,95.57%,95.52%,95.52%,and 98.51%,respectively.In the chest X-ray dataset,the Accuracy,Recall,Precision,F1 Score and Specificity of MSD-Net are 97.78%,95.22%,96.49%,95.58%,and 98.11%,respectively.This model improves the accuracy of lung image recognition effectively and provides an important clinical reference to pneumonia Computer-Aided Diagnosis.

Expansion of human umbilical cord derived mesenchymal stem cells in regenerative medicine

BACKGROUND Stem cells are undifferentiated cells that possess the potential for self-renewal with the capacity to differentiate into multiple lineages.In humans,their limited numbers pose a challenge in fulfilling the necessary demands for the regeneration and repair of damaged tissues or organs.Studies suggested that mesenchymal stem cells(MSCs),necessary for repair and regeneration via transplantation,require doses ranging from 10 to 400 million cells.Furthermore,the limited expansion of MSCs restricts their therapeutic application.AIM To optimize a novel protocol to achieve qualitative and quantitative expansion of MSCs to reach the targeted number of cells for cellular transplantation and minimize the limitations in stem cell therapy protocols.METHODS Human umbilical cord(hUC)tissue derived MSCs were obtained and re-cultured.These cultured cells were subjected to the following evaluation pro-cedures:Immunophenotyping,immunocytochemical staining,trilineage differentiation,population doubling time and number,gene expression markers for proliferation,cell cycle progression,senescence-associatedβ-galactosidase assay,human telomerase reverse transcriptase(hTERT)expression,mycoplasma,cytomegalovirus and endotoxin detection.RESULTS Analysis of pluripotent gene markers Oct4,Sox2,and Nanog in recultured hUC-MSC revealed no significant differences.The immunophenotypic markers CD90,CD73,CD105,CD44,vimentin,CD29,Stro-1,and Lin28 were positively expressed by these recultured expanded MSCs,and were found negative for CD34,CD11b,CD19,CD45,and HLA-DR.The recultured hUC-MSC population continued to expand through passage 15.Proliferative gene expression of Pax6,BMP2,and TGFb1 showed no significant variation between recultured hUC-MSC groups.Nevertheless,a significant increase(P<0.001)in the mitotic phase of the cell cycle was observed in recultured hUC-MSCs.Cellular senescence markers(hTERT expression andβ-galactosidase activity)did not show any negative effect on recultured hUC-MSCs.Additionally,quality control assessments consistently confirmed the absence of mycoplasma,cytomegalovirus,and endotoxin contamination.CONCLUSION This study proposes the development of a novel protocol for efficiently expanding stem cell population.This would address the growing demand for larger stem cell doses needed for cellular transplantation and will significantly improve the feasibility of stem cell based therapies.

Transfer learning framework for multi-scale crack type classification with sparse microseismic networks

Rock fracture mechanisms can be inferred from moment tensors(MT)inverted from microseismic events.However,MT can only be inverted for events whose waveforms are acquired across a network of sensors.This is limiting for underground mines where the microseismic stations often lack azimuthal coverage.Thus,there is a need for a method to invert fracture mechanisms using waveforms acquired by a sparse microseismic network.Here,we present a novel,multi-scale framework to classify whether a rock crack contracts or dilates based on a single waveform.The framework consists of a deep learning model that is initially trained on 2400000+manually labelled field-scale seismic and microseismic waveforms acquired across 692 stations.Transfer learning is then applied to fine-tune the model on 300000+MT-labelled labscale acoustic emission waveforms from 39 individual experiments instrumented with different sensor layouts,loading,and rock types in training.The optimal model achieves over 86%F-score on unseen waveforms at both the lab-and field-scale.This model outperforms existing empirical methods in classification of rock fracture mechanisms monitored by a sparse microseismic network.This facilitates rapid assessment of,and early warning against,various rock engineering hazard such as induced earthquakes and rock bursts.

Significant lake expansion has accelerated permafrost degradation on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

In recent years, lakes on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau have become more responsive to climate change. In September 2011, Zonag Lake in Hoh Xil experienced sudden drainage, the water eventually flowed into Yanhu Lake, which caused Yanhu Lake to continue to expand. The potential collapse of Yanhu Lake could directly threaten the operational safety of the adjacent Qinghai-Tibet Highway, Qinghai-Tibet Railway. To explore the implications of expanding lakes on the surrounding permafrost, we selected Hoh Xil Yanhu Lake on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau to study the effect of lake expansion on permafrost degradation. The permafrost degradation in the Yanhu Lake basin from October 2017 to December 2022 was inverted using Sentinel-1 satellite image data and small baseline subset interferometry synthetic aperture radar(SBAS-In SAR) technology. Additionally, permafrost degradation from February 2007 and February 2010 was analyzed using advanced land observing satellite phased array-type L-band synthetic aperture radar(ALOS PALSAR) satellite images and differential interferometric synthetic aperture radar(D-In SAR) technique. The results showed that the permafrost around Yanhu Lake experienced accelerated degradation. Prior to the expansion of Yanhu Lake, the average annual deformation rate along the line of sight(LOS) direction was 6.7 mm/yr. After the expansion, the rate increased to 20.9 mm/yr. The integration of spatial-temporal distribution maps of surface subsidence, Wudaoliang borehole geothermal data, meteorological data, Yanhu Lake surface area changes, and water level changes supports the assertion that the intensified permafrost degradation could be attributed to lake expansion rather than the rising air temperature. Furthermore, permafrost degradation around Yanhu Lake could impact vital infrastructure such as the adjacent Qinghai-Tibet Highway and Qinghai-Tibet Railway.

MSC-YOLO:Improved YOLOv7 Based on Multi-Scale Spatial Context for Small Object Detection in UAV-View

Accurately identifying small objects in high-resolution aerial images presents a complex and crucial task in thefield of small object detection on unmanned aerial vehicles(UAVs).This task is challenging due to variations inUAV flight altitude,differences in object scales,as well as factors like flight speed and motion blur.To enhancethe detection efficacy of small targets in drone aerial imagery,we propose an enhanced You Only Look Onceversion 7(YOLOv7)algorithm based on multi-scale spatial context.We build the MSC-YOLO model,whichincorporates an additional prediction head,denoted as P2,to improve adaptability for small objects.We replaceconventional downsampling with a Spatial-to-Depth Convolutional Combination(CSPDC)module to mitigatethe loss of intricate feature details related to small objects.Furthermore,we propose a Spatial Context Pyramidwith Multi-Scale Attention(SCPMA)module,which captures spatial and channel-dependent features of smalltargets acrossmultiple scales.This module enhances the perception of spatial contextual features and the utilizationof multiscale feature information.On the Visdrone2023 and UAVDT datasets,MSC-YOLO achieves remarkableresults,outperforming the baseline method YOLOv7 by 3.0%in terms ofmean average precision(mAP).The MSCYOLOalgorithm proposed in this paper has demonstrated satisfactory performance in detecting small targets inUAV aerial photography,providing strong support for practical applications.

Multi-Scale Mixed Attention Tea Shoot Instance Segmentation Model

Tea leaf picking is a crucial stage in tea production that directly influences the quality and value of the tea.Traditional tea-picking machines may compromise the quality of the tea leaves.High-quality teas are often handpicked and need more delicate operations in intelligent picking machines.Compared with traditional image processing techniques,deep learning models have stronger feature extraction capabilities,and better generalization and are more suitable for practical tea shoot harvesting.However,current research mostly focuses on shoot detection and cannot directly accomplish end-to-end shoot segmentation tasks.We propose a tea shoot instance segmentation model based on multi-scale mixed attention(Mask2FusionNet)using a dataset from the tea garden in Hangzhou.We further analyzed the characteristics of the tea shoot dataset,where the proportion of small to medium-sized targets is 89.9%.Our algorithm is compared with several mainstream object segmentation algorithms,and the results demonstrate that our model achieves an accuracy of 82%in recognizing the tea shoots,showing a better performance compared to other models.Through ablation experiments,we found that ResNet50,PointRend strategy,and the Feature Pyramid Network(FPN)architecture can improve performance by 1.6%,1.4%,and 2.4%,respectively.These experiments demonstrated that our proposed multi-scale and point selection strategy optimizes the feature extraction capability for overlapping small targets.The results indicate that the proposed Mask2FusionNet model can perform the shoot segmentation in unstructured environments,realizing the individual distinction of tea shoots,and complete extraction of the shoot edge contours with a segmentation accuracy of 82.0%.The research results can provide algorithmic support for the segmentation and intelligent harvesting of premium tea shoots at different scales.

Improved multi-scale inverse bottleneck residual network based on triplet parallel attention for apple leaf disease identification

Accurate diagnosis of apple leaf diseases is crucial for improving the quality of apple production and promoting the development of the apple industry. However, apple leaf diseases do not differ significantly from image texture and structural information. The difficulties in disease feature extraction in complex backgrounds slow the related research progress. To address the problems, this paper proposes an improved multi-scale inverse bottleneck residual network model based on a triplet parallel attention mechanism, which is built upon ResNet-50, while improving and combining the inception module and ResNext inverse bottleneck blocks, to recognize seven types of apple leaf(including six diseases of alternaria leaf spot, brown spot, grey spot, mosaic, rust, scab, and one healthy). First, the 3×3 convolutions in some of the residual modules are replaced by multi-scale residual convolutions, the convolution kernels of different sizes contained in each branch of the multi-scale convolution are applied to extract feature maps of different sizes, and the outputs of these branches are multi-scale fused by summing to enrich the output features of the images. Second, the global layer-wise dynamic coordinated inverse bottleneck structure is used to reduce the network feature loss. The inverse bottleneck structure makes the image information less lossy when transforming from different dimensional feature spaces. The fusion of multi-scale and layer-wise dynamic coordinated inverse bottlenecks makes the model effectively balances computational efficiency and feature representation capability, and more robust with a combination of horizontal and vertical features in the fine identification of apple leaf diseases. Finally, after each improved module, a triplet parallel attention module is integrated with cross-dimensional interactions among channels through rotations and residual transformations, which improves the parallel search efficiency of important features and the recognition rate of the network with relatively small computational costs while the dimensional dependencies are improved. To verify the validity of the model in this paper, we uniformly enhance apple leaf disease images screened from the public data sets of Plant Village, Baidu Flying Paddle, and the Internet. The final processed image count is 14,000. The ablation study, pre-processing comparison, and method comparison are conducted on the processed datasets. The experimental results demonstrate that the proposed method reaches 98.73% accuracy on the adopted datasets, which is 1.82% higher than the classical ResNet-50 model, and 0.29% better than the apple leaf disease datasets before preprocessing. It also achieves competitive results in apple leaf disease identification compared to some state-ofthe-art methods.

Research on the Generation Mechanism and Suppression Method of Aerodynamic Noise in Expansion Cavity Based on Hybrid Method

The expansion chamber serves as the primary silencing structure within the exhaust pipeline.However,it can also act as a sound-emitting structure when subjected to airflow.This article presents a hybrid method for numerically simulating and analyzing the unsteady flow and aerodynamic noise in an expansion chamber under the influence of airflow.A fluid simulation model is established,utilizing the Large Eddy Simulation(LES)method to calculate the unsteady flow within the expansion chamber.The simulation results effectively capture the development and changes of the unsteady flow and vorticity inside the cavity,exhibiting a high level of consistency with experimental observations.To calculate the aerodynamic noise sources within the cavity,the flow field results are integrated using the method of integral interpolation and inserted into the acoustic grid.The acoustic analogy method is then employed to determine the aerodynamic noise sources.An acoustic simulation model is established,and the flow noise source is imported into the sound field grid to calculate the sound pressure at the far-field response point.The calculated sound pressure levels and resonance frequencies show good agreement with the experimental results.To address the issue of airflow regeneration noise within the cavity,perforated tubes are selected as a means of noise suppression.An experimental platformfor airflow regeneration noise is constructed,and experimental samples are processed to analyze and verify the noise suppression effect of perforated tube expansion cavities under different airflow velocities.The research findings indicate that the perforated tube expansion cavity can effectively suppress low-frequency aerodynamic noise within the cavity by impeding the formation of strong shear layers.Moreover,the semi-perforated tube expansion cavity demonstrates the most effective suppression of aerodynamic noise.

A multi-scale second-order autoregressive recursive filter approach for the sea ice concentration analysis

To effectively extract multi-scale information from observation data and improve computational efficiency,a multi-scale second-order autoregressive recursive filter(MSRF)method is designed.The second-order autoregressive filter used in this study has been attempted to replace the traditional first-order recursive filter used in spatial multi-scale recursive filter(SMRF)method.The experimental results indicate that the MSRF scheme successfully extracts various scale information resolved by observations.Moreover,compared with the SMRF scheme,the MSRF scheme improves computational accuracy and efficiency to some extent.The MSRF scheme can not only propagate to a longer distance without the attenuation of innovation,but also reduce the mean absolute deviation between the reconstructed sea ice concentration results and observations reduced by about 3.2%compared to the SMRF scheme.On the other hand,compared with traditional first-order recursive filters using in the SMRF scheme that multiple filters are executed,the MSRF scheme only needs to perform two filter processes in one iteration,greatly improving filtering efficiency.In the two-dimensional experiment of sea ice concentration,the calculation time of the MSRF scheme is only 1/7 of that of SMRF scheme.This means that the MSRF scheme can achieve better performance with less computational cost,which is of great significance for further application in real-time ocean or sea ice data assimilation systems in the future.

Multi-Scale Design and Optimization of Composite Material Structure for Heavy-Duty Truck Protection Device

In this paper,to present a lightweight-developed front underrun protection device(FUPD)for heavy-duty trucks,plain weave carbon fiber reinforced plastic(CFRP)is used instead of the original high-strength steel.First,the mechanical and structural properties of plain carbon fiber composite anti-collision beams are comparatively analyzed from a multi-scale perspective.For studying the design capability of carbon fiber composite materials,we investigate the effects of TC-33 carbon fiber diameter(D),fiber yarn width(W)and height(H),and fiber yarn density(N)on the front underrun protective beam of carbon fiber compositematerials.Based on the investigation,a material-structure matching strategy suitable for the front underrun protective beam of heavy-duty trucks is proposed.Next,the composite material structure is optimized by applying size optimization and stack sequence optimization methods to obtain the higher performance carbon fiber composite front underrun protection beam of commercial vehicles.The results show that the fiber yarn height(H)has the greatest influence on the protective beam,and theH1matching scheme for the front underrun protective beamwith a carbon fiber composite structure exhibits superior performance.The proposed method achieves a weight reduction of 55.21% while still meeting regulatory requirements,which demonstrates its remarkable weight reduction effect.

Stochastic programming based coordinated expansion planning of generation,transmission,demand side resources,and energy storage considering the DC transmission system

With the increasing penetration of wind and solar energies,the accompanying uncertainty that propagates in the system places higher requirements on the expansion planning of power systems.A source-grid-load-storage coordinated expansion planning model based on stochastic programming was proposed to suppress the impact of wind and solar energy fluctuations.Multiple types of system components,including demand response service entities,converter stations,DC transmission systems,cascade hydropower stations,and other traditional components,have been extensively modeled.Moreover,energy storage systems are considered to improve the accommodation level of renewable energy and alleviate the influence of intermittence.Demand-response service entities from the load side are used to reduce and move the demand during peak load periods.The uncertainties in wind,solar energy,and loads were simulated using stochastic programming.Finally,the effectiveness of the proposed model is verified through numerical simulations.

The Negative Thermal Expansion Property of NdMnO_(3) Based on Pores Effect and Phase Transition

A novel negative thermal expansion(NTE) material NdMnO_(3) was synthesized by solid-state method at 1 523 K. The crystal structure, phase transition, pores effect and negative expansion properties of NdMnO_(3) were investigated by variable temperature X-ray diffraction(XRD), scanning electron microscope(SEM) and variable temperature Raman spectra. The compound exhibits NTE properties in the orderly O' phase crystal structure. When the temperature is from 293 to 759 K, the ceramic NdMnO_(3) shows negative thermal expansion of-4.7×10^(-6)/K. As temperature increases, the ceramic NdMnO_(3) presents NTE property range from 759 to 1 007 K. The average linear expansion coefficient is-18.88×10^(-6)/K. The physical mechanism of NTE is discussed and clarified through experiments.

An Interpolation Method for Karhunen-Loève Expansion of Random Field Discretization

In the context of global mean square error concerning the number of random variables in the representation,the Karhunen–Loève(KL)expansion is the optimal series expansion method for random field discretization.The computational efficiency and accuracy of the KL expansion are contingent upon the accurate resolution of the Fredholm integral eigenvalue problem(IEVP).The paper proposes an interpolation method based on different interpolation basis functions such as moving least squares(MLS),least squares(LS),and finite element method(FEM)to solve the IEVP.Compared with the Galerkin method based on finite element or Legendre polynomials,the main advantage of the interpolation method is that,in the calculation of eigenvalues and eigenfunctions in one-dimensional random fields,the integral matrix containing covariance function only requires a single integral,which is less than a two-folded integral by the Galerkin method.The effectiveness and computational efficiency of the proposed interpolation method are verified through various one-dimensional examples.Furthermore,based on theKL expansion and polynomial chaos expansion,the stochastic analysis of two-dimensional regular and irregular domains is conducted,and the basis function of the extended finite element method(XFEM)is introduced as the interpolation basis function in two-dimensional irregular domains to solve the IEVP.

An agent-based model of agricultural land expansion in the mountain forest of Timor Island,Indonesia

The Mutis-Timau Forest Complex,located on Timor Island,Indonesia,is a mountainous tropical forest area that gradually decreases due to deforestation and forest degradation.Previous modelling studies based on patterns indicate that deforestation primarily occurs at lower elevations and near the boundaries of forests and settlements,often associated with shifting cultivation by local farmers.This study adopts a process-based modelling approach,specifically the agent-based model,to simulate land changes,particularly farmers'expansion of agricultural land around the Mutis mountain forest.The underlying concept of this agent-based approach is the interaction between the human and environmental systems.Farmers,representing the human system,interact with the land,which represents the environmental system,through land use decision-making mechanisms.The research was conducted in the Community Forest of the Timor Tengah Utara District,one of the sites within the Mutis-Timau Forest Complex with the highest deforestation rate.Land use change simulations were performed using agent-based modelling from 1999 to 2030,considering the socio-economic conditions of farmers,spatial preferences,land use decisions,and natural transitions.The results revealed that the agricultural area increased by 14%under the Business as Usual scenario and 5%under the Reducing Emission from Deforestation and Forest Degradation scenario,compared to the initial agricultural area of 245 hectares.The probability of farmers deciding to extend agricultural activities was positively associated with the number of livestock maintained by farmers and the size of the village area.Conversely,the likelihood of farmers opting for agricultural extensification decreased with an increase in the area of private land and the farmer's age.These findings are crucial for the managers of the Mutis-Timau Forest Complex and other relevant stakeholders,as they aid in arranging actions to combat deforestation,designing proper forest-related policies,and providing support for initiatives such as reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation programs or further incentive schemes.

Higher-order expansions of powered extremes of logarithmic general error distribution

In this paper,Let M_(n)denote the maximum of logarithmic general error distribution with parameter v≥1.Higher-order expansions for distributions of powered extremes M_(n)^(p)are derived under an optimal choice of normalizing constants.It is shown that M_(n)^(p),when v=1,converges to the Frechet extreme value distribution at the rate of 1/n,and if v>1 then M_(n)^(p)converges to the Gumbel extreme value distribution at the rate of(loglogn)^(2)=(log n)^(1-1/v).