Spatial emission reduction effects of China’s carbon emissions trading:quasi-natural experiments and policy spillovers

Insufficient assessment of emission reduction effects still exists in the carbon emission rights trading system,a major environmental regulation measure in China.Based on the data from the carbon trading pilot covering the years from 2007 to 2017,this study combined the synthetic control method with dynamic spatial Durbin model to comprehensively evaluate the spatial emission reduction effects of carbon trading policies.The results showed that:①The carbon trading policies promoted carbon emission reductions in the pilot regions,among which Tianjin and Hubei responded significantly,and also helped to suppress carbon emissions in the neighboring areas.②Long-term emission reduction effect from carbon emissions trading became gradually significant,while the indirect emission reduction effect was relatively weaker.③In term of reducing carbon emissions,the economic development channel played a key role,but it had a threat to the promotion of carbon emissions in the surrounding areas.Energy consumption was the main obstacle to the growth of carbon emissions.④In the long run,technological progress tended to become the key to the effective implementation of potential emission reduction effects of carbon trading policies.Based on the above findings,we suggest that the construction of a national carbon trading market should be promoted,the balanced development and orderly advancement of regional carbon trading markets should be paid attention to,the coordinated development of green economy as well as knowledge and technology exchange and cooperation among regions should be strengthened to form a low carbon development model among regions.

Application of Multi-Step Differential Transform Method on Flow of a Second-Grade Fluid over a Stretching or Shrinking Sheet

In this study, a reliable algorithm to develop approximate solutions for the problem of fluid flow over a stretching or shrinking sheet is proposed. It is depicted that the differential transform method (DTM) solutions are only valid for small values of the independent variable. The DTM solutions diverge for some differential equations that extremely have nonlinear behaviors or have boundary-conditions at infinity. For this reason the governing boundary-layer equations are solved by the Multi-step Differential Transform Method (MDTM). The main advantage of this method is that it can be applied directly to nonlinear differential equations without requiring linearization, discretization, or perturbation. It is a semi analytical-numerical technique that formulizes Taylor series in a very different manner. By applying the MDTM the interval of convergence for the series solution is increased. The MDTM is treated as an algorithm in a sequence of intervals for finding accurate approximate solutions for systems of differential equations. It is predicted that the MDTM can be applied to a wide range of engineering applications.

Adaptive multi-step piecewise interpolation reproducing kernel method for solving the nonlinear time-fractional partial differential equation arising from financial economics

This paper is aimed at solving the nonlinear time-fractional partial differential equation with two small parameters arising from option pricing model in financial economics.The traditional reproducing kernel(RK)method which deals with this problem is very troublesome.This paper proposes a new method by adaptive multi-step piecewise interpolation reproducing kernel(AMPIRK)method for the first time.This method has three obvious advantages which are as follows.Firstly,the piecewise number is reduced.Secondly,the calculation accuracy is improved.Finally,the waste time caused by too many fragments is avoided.Then four numerical examples show that this new method has a higher precision and it is a more timesaving numerical method than the others.The research in this paper provides a powerful mathematical tool for solving time-fractional option pricing model which will play an important role in financial economics.

Chaos control of gear system with elastomeric web based on multi-parameter multi-step method

This paper employs a multi-parameter multi-step chaos control method, which is built up on the OGY method, to stabilize desirable UPOs of a gear system with elastomeric web as a high-dimensional and non-hyperbolic chaotic system, and the analyses are carried out. Three types of relations between components of a certain control parameter combination are defined in a certain control process. Special emphasis is put on the comparison of control efficiencies of the multi-parameter multi-step method and single-parameter multi-step method. The numerical experiments show the ability to switch between different orbits and the method can be a good chaos control alternative since it provides a more effective UPOs stabilization of high-dimensional and non-hyperbolic chaotic systems than the single-parameter chaos control, and according to the relation between components of each parameter combination, the best combination for chaos control in a certain UPO stabilization process are obtained.

Forecasting available parking space with largest Lyapunov exponents method

The techniques to forecast available parking space(APS) are indispensable components for parking guidance systems(PGS). According to the data collected in Newcastle upon Tyne, England, the changing characteristics of APS were studied. Thereafter, aiming to build up a multi-step APS forecasting model that provides richer information than a conventional one-step model, the largest Lyapunov exponents(largest LEs) method was introduced into PGS. By experimental tests conducted using the same dataset, its prediction performance was compared with traditional wavelet neural network(WNN) method in both one-step and multi-step processes. Based on the results, a new multi-step forecasting model called WNN-LE method was proposed, where WNN, which enjoys a more accurate performance along with a better learning ability in short-term forecasting, was applied in the early forecast steps while the Lyapunov exponent prediction method in the latter steps precisely reflect the chaotic feature in latter forecast period. The MSE of APS forecasting for one hour time period can be reduced from 83.1 to 27.1(in a parking building with 492 berths) by using largest LEs method instead of WNN and further reduced to 19.0 by conducted the new method.

Coupling Path of China's Modern Service Industry and Agriculture Based on Improved Entropy Method

The economic development of China has transformed from factor-driven type to innovation-driven type,and the upgrading of industrial structure is very important. In this paper,in order to explore the path of the coupling effect of modern service industry and agriculture,based on previous research and practical experience,we select 14 indicators,and then use the theory of dissipative structure,coupling degree and coupling coordination degree to measure the coupling phase of modern service industry and agriculture. On this basis,we use the spillover effect for the empirical testing of influence of modern service industry on agricultural development. The study shows that modern service industry and agriculture in our country are at the medium coupling,and in the early stage of development. The spillover effects of China's modern service industry on China's economic development and agricultural progress are significant. Finally,the policy recommendations are put forward from tourism,logistics and so on to promote the coupling of modern service industry and agriculture and provide a reference for promoting the coupling level of China's modern service industry and agriculture.

Optimized Hybrid Block Adams Method for Solving First Order Ordinary Differential Equations

Multistep integration methods are being extensively used in the simulations of high dimensional systems due to their lower computational cost.The block methods were developed with the intent of obtaining numerical results on numerous points at a time and improving computational efficiency.Hybrid block methods for instance are specifically used in numerical integration of initial value problems.In this paper,an optimized hybrid block Adams block method is designed for the solutions of linear and nonlinear first-order initial value problems in ordinary differential equations(ODEs).In deriving themethod,the Lagrange interpolation polynomial was employed based on some data points to replace the differential equation function and it was integrated over a specified interval.Furthermore,the convergence properties along with the region of stability of the method were examined.It was concluded that the newly derived method is convergent,consistent,and zero-stable.The method was also found to be A-stable implying that it covers the whole of the left/negative half plane.From the numerical computations of absolute errors carried out using the newly derived method,it was found that the method performed better than the ones with which we compared our results with.Themethod also showed its superiority over the existing methods in terms of stability and convergence.

低碳试点政策对城市碳中和技术创新的影响及溢出效应

低碳试点政策是促进城市碳中和技术创新的重要工具,以2009-2021年中国266个城市面板数据为样本,利用多种双重差分模型,实证分析低碳试点政策对碳中和技术创新的影响及空间溢出效应。结果表明:第一,低碳试点政策促进试点城市碳中和技术创新,且对零碳与低碳技术创新的影响更显著;低碳试点政策的影响效应具有异质性,在高行政等级、大规模人口、低资源依赖、高数字化水平和高环境规制城市表现更显著。第二,低碳试点政策通过强化政府管制、完善市场制度和加强社会监督促进碳中和技术创新,其中,政府管制的传导作用最显著,其次是市场制度,而社会监督的作用最弱。第三,低碳试点政策具有明显的正向空间溢出效应,来自邻近地区的间接效应占比高达77%,且产业结构优化会增强低碳试点政策的溢出效应。

高铁开通对城市能源利用效率的影响机制及空间溢出效应研究

将高铁开通视为一项准自然实验,基于2006—2019年城市面板数据,运用多期双重差分法实证检验高铁开通对城市能源利用效率的影响,并进一步分析其影响机制及空间溢出效应。研究发现:(1)高铁开通对城市的能源利用效率具有显著的提升作用。(2)高铁开通通过提高铁路货运效率、替代公路客运、优化产业结构及促进技术创新,提升了城市的能源利用效率。(3)高铁开通对邻近城市的能源利用效率存在正向空间溢出效应,并存在800公里的空间距离衰减边界。(4)高铁开通对城市能源利用效率的提升作用在不同区域、等级、规模、资源禀赋的城市存在显著的异质性,其中对中西部城市、小城市、普通城市、资源型城市的能源利用效率提升作用更为显著;此外,高铁开通对衰退型的资源型城市能源利用效率的促进效果最大,对成熟型的资源型城市的影响次之,但对成长型和可再生型的资源型城市不存在显著性影响。研究结论为理解高铁在能源利用效率方面的作用提供了新视角和新证据,也为实现“节能减排”和“交通强国”提供了政策启示。

城门失火殃及池鱼吗?来自债券违约的分析

近年来,我国债券违约事件频发,对债券市场的平稳运行造成威胁。以2020年11月永煤债券违约为外部冲击,从地区、行业、评级机构与承销商四个层面,基于2020年债券市场日度数据,利用事件研究法与双重差分模型分析了AAA级国有企业债券违约对债券市场影响的溢出效应。研究发现,永煤债券违约事件导致债券一级市场发行规模缩小与发行成本提升,并显著提高了二级债券市场存续债券的回报。从短期市场反应来看,违约事件造成的负面溢出效应(异常回报提升)同时存在于地区、行业、评级机构与承销商层面;从长期影响来看,违约事件导致的存续债券收益率提升的负面冲击仅在地区和行业间存在。异质性分析表明,违约事件对低承付能力地区、低市场竞争程度行业、由内资背景机构评级以及低声誉机构承销的债券负面影响更加显著。进一步检验发现,上述短期负面溢出效应在高等级(AAA)债券组中更加显著,并且评级机构的评价标准并没有受到该违约事件的影响,说明信用评级膨胀问题仍然严重。因此,监管部门应加强对债券市场的引导,从债券市场信息中介(评级机构与承销商等)角度采取措施来防范与降低债券违约风险。

基于空间杜宾模型的数字乡村建设水平测度及影响因素探究

基于中国30个省(区、市)2016—2022年的面板数据,从数字基础设施建设、乡村数字产业、乡村数字生活、乡村数字治理4个维度构建了数字乡村建设水平评价指标体系,采用熵权TOPSIS法进行测度,进一步根据空间杜宾模型探究了数字乡村建设的影响因素和空间溢出效应。结果表明:(1)中国数字乡村建设水平在增幅、年均增速等指标上均呈现出东部最高、中部次之、西部再次之、东北部最低的态势,具有明显的“马太效应”和空间依赖性。(2)分地区来看,浙江省的数字乡村建设水平最高,观察期内山西省的数字乡村发展最快。(3)人口年龄结构和城镇化水平与数字乡村建设水平呈显著负相关,研发强度和农民收入水平为显著正相关。(4)地区发展水平具有正向空间溢出效应,研发强度和城镇化水平则具有负向空间溢出效应。

民生财政支出偏向与居民幸福感提升:基于空间溢出效应的实证检验

居民幸福感是社会发展、民生改善以及政府治理的综合体现,民生财政支出是提升居民幸福感的重要途径。文章利用熵权法对2006-2021年中国282个地级及以上城市的居民幸福感进行测算,从空间溢出的视角探讨了民生财政支出对居民幸福感的影响,并进一步研究了其作用机制及异质性。实证研究发现:第一,民生财政支出对居民幸福感的影响存在地区异质性,民生财政对东部地区居民幸福感具有更显著的提升作用;第二,民生财政支出对居民幸福感的影响存在空间相关性,民生财政支出不仅能提高本地居民幸福感,而且对提升周边城市居民幸福感具有显著的正向空间溢出效应;第三,在不同幸福度分位数下,民生财政支出对居民幸福感的影响存在差异,各分项民生财政支出对不同幸福水平地区的居民幸福感影响程度各不相同。

新质生产力视域下碳排放权交易对绿色高质量发展的影响研究

为揭示碳排放权交易对绿色高质量发展的影响效应,为空间资源整合及缩小区域经济发展差距提供理论参考,从绿色高质量发展体系视角切入,系统研究碳排放权交易对绿色高质量发展的影响及空间溢出效应。将中国政府施行的碳排放权交易试点视作准自然实验,在新质生产力视域下,从技术创新、产业结构、居民生活与绿色发展4个维度构建绿色高质量发展评价指标体系,选取2006—2021年中国30个省份的面板数据,运用多期双重差分法和空间杜宾模型进行实证检验。结论如下:(1)碳排放权交易显著促进绿色高质量发展,有利于推动新质生产力发展;(2)碳排放权交易通过推动技术创新、产业结构升级与居民生活水平改善促进绿色高质量发展;(3)碳排放权交易的绿色高质量发展效应存在自东部、中部、西部梯度递增的区域异质性;(4)碳排放权交易对绿色高质量发展存在“本地—邻地”正向空间溢出效应。根据实证结论,从有序渐次拓展碳排放权交易范畴、因地制宜规划差异化碳排放权交易实施制度、促进区域空间协同联动等方面提出相应对策建议。

数字基础设施、产业链协同与全国统一大市场

数字基础设施是推动全国统一大市场建设、实现经济高质量发展的重要引擎。本文从城市间产业链协同的视角论证了数字基础设施促进全国统一大市场建设的作用机制。结果显示,数字基础设施能够促进全国统一大市场建设,对周边城市的统一大市场具有正向空间溢出效应。机制检验发现,数字基础设施通过增强城市间产业链供求信息匹配、深化产业链分工和产业链要素共享机制推动全国统一大市场建设。进一步研究发现,数字基础设施的空间溢出地理阈值大约为300km。东部地区数字基础设施对中西部地区全国统一大市场的空间溢出效应存在“极化效应”,大城市数字基础设施对中小城市全国统一大市场存在显著的正向空间溢出效应。因此,本文提出数字化转型政策要因城施策,围绕城市间产业链协同,进一步优化和完善全国统一大市场制度设计。

“债券通”视角下的中美债券市场联动效应研究

自2017年7月实施“债券通”政策以来,我国债券市场的国际化程度持续增强,国内外债券市场的风险溢出效应日益明显。本文基于联动视角,采用DY溢出指数法及DCC-GARCH-Hong方法,对“债券通”实施前后中国和美国债券市场的关联度进行深入分析。研究结果显示:“债券通”政策实施后,中国债券市场和美国债券市场的联系显著增强,尤其是“北向通”在促进均值溢出方面的作用格外明显,而“南向通”的效果相对较弱,这表明中美市场之间存在明显的溢出效应,动态相关系数波动幅度加大且呈现周期性。整体上看,“债券通”政策初步实现了提高市场效率,扩大互联互通的初衷。最后提出完善“债券通”的政策建议,未来加强中外债券市场监管协调和风险监控、优化“债券通”配套措施,以更好地满足广大投资者的需求。

创新要素错配对碳排放效率的影响——基于空间溢出效应视角的研究

合理配置创新要素、不断提高碳排放效率是中国在加快实现“双碳”目标过程中亟须解决的现实问题,而相关研究对其可能存在的空间效应的讨论相对不足。从理论层面剖析创新要素错配对碳排放效率的影响机制和空间溢出效应,将要素错配以一种扭曲税的形式表现,从投入产出视角通过超效率SBM模型测度碳排放效率,通过全要素生产率离散度法和数据包络分析法构建创新要素错配和碳排放效率的测度框架,基于2012—2021年中国30个省份的面板数据,利用空间杜宾模型、空间自相关检验方法实证检验创新要素错配对碳排放效率的影响及空间溢出效应,并将30个省份划为五大区域展开异质性分析。结果发现:创新要素错配显著抑制本地区碳排放效率提升并对空间关联地区的碳排放效率产生不利影响;创新要素错配对碳排放效率的影响存在地区异质性,中部和西南地区创新要素错配对本地区碳排放效率起到抑制作用,而东部和东北、西北地区的影响不明显;五大地区创新要素错配对空间关联地区的碳排放效率均起到抑制作用。据此,提出不断优化创新要素市场配置机制、有效鼓励企业开展低碳技术创新和应用、形成区域创新合力等助力中国碳排放效率提升的政策建议。

高速铁路影响下知识溢出的DEA评价研究--以长三角地区为例

高速铁路沿线经济发展迅速,可达性变化引发人才、资本等生产要素重新布局,改变产业布局与产业结构等影响区域间的知识溢出效应。长三角地区作为我国经济最发达、交通路网最完善的区域,其区域间的知识溢出效应也更明显。为研究长三角地区高速铁路带来的区域空间高可达性效应对区域间的知识溢出及其效率的影响,通过探究高速铁路对知识溢出的影响机理,参考空间经济学与新地理经济学利用空间计量方法建立空间杜宾模型,证实高速铁路影响下知识溢出效应的存在及其作用范围;基于2011~2020年长三角地区第三产业产值、论文发表数目、专利申请数目、R&D课题数以及生师比数据,利用包络分析(DEA)模型分析知识视角下长三角地区高速铁路对知识溢出效率的影响。研究结果表明,(1)高铁可以影响知识溢出的作用区间,而且实证结果是稳健的。(2)铁路对于知识溢出和人才吸引效应的作用十分明显。(3)铁路与其他运输方式两两配合,铁路和公路的协同发展综合效益最高,铁路与水路最低。(4)各种交通方式的配合协调程度越高,则知识溢出效应越显著。研究结果以期为高速铁路行经区域交通规划及经济发展提供参考依据。

数字产业集聚与区域经济高质量发展——基于空间杜宾模型的实证检验

数字经济是推动经济高质量发展的新引擎。本文通过熵值法测度了全国30个省份2005—2020年的数字产业集聚状况,借助空间杜宾模型检验了数字产业集聚对区域经济高质量发展的影响。实证结果显示,数字产业集聚有助于推动区域经济高质量发展且存在正向空间溢出效应,表明本地区的数字产业集聚有助于邻近地区的经济高质量发展。进一步研究发现,数字产业集聚对区域经济高质量发展的促进作用在教育投入水平高的省份更为有效,同时在人口偏少的省份也表现显著,而正向空间溢出效应在教育投入较大的省份更为有效。基于以上结论,本文以为政府应加大数字产业集聚支持力度,推动区域间合作与协同发展,并优化教育资源配置;行业则应加强创新能力建设,拓展应用领域,加强自律与规范发展,并深化国际合作与交流。

科技创新对农业高质量发展的影响及区域差异

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