Multi-Time Scale Optimal Scheduling of a Photovoltaic Energy Storage Building System Based on Model Predictive Control

Building emission reduction is an important way to achieve China’s carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals.Aiming at the problem of low carbon economic operation of a photovoltaic energy storage building system,a multi-time scale optimal scheduling strategy based on model predictive control(MPC)is proposed under the consideration of load optimization.First,load optimization is achieved by controlling the charging time of electric vehicles as well as adjusting the air conditioning operation temperature,and the photovoltaic energy storage building system model is constructed to propose a day-ahead scheduling strategy with the lowest daily operation cost.Second,considering inter-day to intra-day source-load prediction error,an intraday rolling optimal scheduling strategy based on MPC is proposed that dynamically corrects the day-ahead dispatch results to stabilize system power fluctuations and promote photovoltaic consumption.Finally,taking an office building on a summer work day as an example,the effectiveness of the proposed scheduling strategy is verified.The results of the example show that the strategy reduces the total operating cost of the photovoltaic energy storage building system by 17.11%,improves the carbon emission reduction by 7.99%,and the photovoltaic consumption rate reaches 98.57%,improving the system’s low-carbon and economic performance.

Bio-Inspired Optimal Dispatching of Wind Power Consumption Considering Multi-Time Scale Demand Response and High-Energy Load Participation

Bio-inspired computer modelling brings solutions fromthe living phenomena or biological systems to engineering domains.To overcome the obstruction problem of large-scale wind power consumption in Northwest China,this paper constructs a bio-inspired computer model.It is an optimal wind power consumption dispatching model of multi-time scale demand response that takes into account the involved high-energy load.First,the principle of wind power obstruction with the involvement of a high-energy load is examined in this work.In this step,highenergy load model with different regulation characteristics is established.Then,considering the multi-time scale characteristics of high-energy load and other demand-side resources response speed,a multi-time scale model of coordination optimization is built.An improved bio-inspired model incorporating particle swarm optimization is applied to minimize system operation and wind curtailment costs,as well as to find the most optimal energy configurationwithin the system.Lastly,we take an example of regional power grid in Gansu Province for simulation analysis.Results demonstrate that the suggested scheduling strategy can significantly enhance the wind power consumption level and minimize the system’s operational cost.

Low-carbon generation expansion planning considering uncertainty of renewable energy at multi-time scales

With the development of carbon electricity,achieving a low-carbon economy has become a prevailing and inevitable trend.Improving low-carbon expansion generation planning is critical for carbon emission mitigation and a lowcarbon economy.In this paper,a two-layer low-carbon expansion generation planning approach considering the uncertainty of renewable energy at multiple time scales is proposed.First,renewable energy sequences considering the uncertainty in multiple time scales are generated based on the Copula function and the probability distribution of renewable energy.Second,a two-layer generation planning model considering carbon trading and carbon capture technology is established.Specifically,the upper layer model optimizes the investment decision considering the uncertainty at a monthly scale,and the lower layer one optimizes the scheduling considering the peak shaving at an hourly scale and the flexibility at a 15-minute scale.Finally,the results of different influence factors on low-carbon generation expansion planning are compared in a provincial power grid,which demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed model.

Research on multi-time scale doubly-fed wind turbine test system based on FPGA+CPU heterogeneous calculation

As the proportion of renewable energy increases, the interaction between renewable energy devices and the grid continues to enhance. Therefore, the renewable energy dynamic test in a power system has become more and more important. Traditional dynamic simulation systems and digital-analog hybrid simulation systems are difficult to compromise on the economy, flexibility and accuracy. A multi-time scale test system of doubly fed induction generator based on FPGA+ CPU heterogeneous calculation is proposed in this paper. The proposed test system is based on the ADPSS simulation platform. The power circuit part of the test system is setup up using the EMT(electromagnetic transient simulation) simulation, and the control part uses the actual physical devices. In order to realize the close-loop testing for the physical devices, the power circuit must be simulated in real-time. This paper proposes a multi-time scale simulation algorithm, in which the decoupling component divides the power circuit into a large time scale system and a small time scale system in order to reduce computing effort. This paper also proposes the FPGA+CPU heterogeneous computing architecture for implementing this multitime scale simulation. In FPGA, there is a complete small time-scale EMT engine, which support the flexibly circuit modeling with any topology. Finally, the test system is connected to an DFIG controller based on Labview to verify the feasibility of the test system.

CLIMATE PREDICTION EXPERIMENT FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE GENESIS FREQUENCY USING THE LARGE-SCALE CIRCULATION FORECAST BY A COUPLED GLOBAL CIRCULATION MODEL

Based on an analysis of the relationship between the tropical cyclone genesis frequency and large-scale circulation anomaly in NCEP reanalysis, large-scale atmosphere circulation information forecast by the JAMSTEC SINTEX-F coupled model is used to build a statistical model to predict the cyclogenesis frequency over the South China Sea and the western North Pacific. The SINTEX-F coupled model has relatively good prediction skill for some circulation features associated with the cyclogenesis frequency including sea level pressure, wind vertical shear, Intertropical Convergence Zone and cross-equatorial air flows. Predictors derived from these large-scale circulations have good relationships with the cyclogenesis frequency over the South China Sea and the western North Pacific. A multivariate linear regression(MLR) model is further designed using these predictors. This model shows good prediction skill with the anomaly correlation coefficient reaching, based on the cross validation, 0.71 between the observed and predicted cyclogenesis frequency. However, it also shows relatively large prediction errors in extreme tropical cyclone years(1994 and 1998, for example).

Interannual Variation of Tropical Night Frequency in Beijing and Associated Large-Scale Circulation Background

This study examined the variability in frequency of tropical night occurrence （i.e., minimum air tem- perature 25℃） in Beijing, using a homogenized daily temperature dataset during the period 1960–2008. Our results show that tropical nights occur most frequently in late July and early August, which is consis- tent with relatively high air humidity associated with the rainy season in Beijing. In addition, year-to-year variation of tropical night occurrence indicates that the tropical nights have appeared much more frequently since 1994, which can be illustrated by the yearly days of tropical nights averaged over two periods： 9.2 days of tropical nights per year during 1994–2008 versus 3.15 days during 1960–1993. These features of tropical night variations suggest a distinction between tropical nights and extreme heat in Beijing. We further investigated the large-scale circulations associated with the year-to-year variation of tropical night occurrence in July and August, when tropical nights appear most frequently and occupy 95% of the annual sum. After comparing the results in the two reanalysis datasets （NCEP/NCAR and ERA-40） and considering the possible effects of decadal change in the frequency of tropical nights that occurred around 1993/94, we conclude that on the interannual time scale, the cyclonic anomaly with a barotropic structure centered over Beijing is responsible for less frequent tropical nights, and the anticyclonic anomaly is responsible for more frequent occurrence of tropical nights over Beijing.

ON DECENTRALIZED STABILIZATION OF LINEAR LARGE SCALE SYSTEMS WITH SYMMETRIC CIRCULANT STRUCTURE

The decentralized stabilization of continuous and discrete linear large scale systems with symmetric circulant structure was studied.A few sufficient conditions on decentralized stabilization of such systems were proposed.For the continuous systems,by introducing a concept called the magnitude of interconnected structure,a very important property that the decentralized stabilization of such systems is fully determined by the structure of each isolated subsystem that is obtained when the magnitude of interconnected structure of the overall system is given.So the decentralized stabilization of such systems can be got by only appropriately designing or modifying the structure of each isolated subsystem,no matter how complicated the interconnected structure of the overall system is.A algorithm for obtaining decentralized state feedback to stabilize the overall system is given.The discrete systems were also discussed.The results show that there is a great dfference on decentralized stabilization between continuous case and discrete case.

IMPACT OF LARGE-SCALE CIRCULATION ON THE INTERDECADAL VARIATIONS OF THE WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE

Based on the annual frequency data of tropical cyclones from 1960 to 2005 and by the polynomial fit and statistical analysis, this work has discovered that TC activity in the 46a exhibits significant decadal-scale variability. It has two high frequency periods (HFP) and two low frequency periods (LFP). Significant differences in the number of TCs between HFP and LFP are found in active TC seasons from July to October. Differences of large-scale circulation during HFP and LFP have been investigated with NCEP/NOAA data for the season. In HFP, the condition includes not only higher sea surface temperature, lower sea level pressure, larger divergence of upper air, larger relative vorticity at low levels and smaller vertical shear, but also 500-hPa wind vector being more available for TC activity and moving to western North Pacific, the position of the subtropical anticyclone over the western Pacific shifting more northward, and South Asian Anticyclone at 100-hPa being much smaller than that in LFP. The precipitation of western North Pacific has no clear influence on TC activity.

Study on circulation and meso-scale eddies in the South China Sea in summer of 1998

By using wide scope ADCP data which were got during SCSMEX (South China Sea Monsoon Experiment) period in the summer of 1998, and comparing these data with numerical modelling result, the distribution and variation characteristics of the circulation and meso-scale eddies in the South China Sea (SCS) were studied. The results show that: (1) in the SCS, 18 different scale eddies or motion systems with characteristics similar to meso-scale eddy were found during the investigation; (2) a strong westward current was found in the south of the Taiwan Shoal; (3) the energy of those eddies west of 114°E was much stronger than that of the east;(4) and there exist many powerful meso-scale eddies in the Nansha region south of 12°N. The distributions of numerous eddies reflect the complexity of the circulation in the SCS. It seems that the formation of those eddies should be caused by joint work of wind, coast feature, bottom topography, water density, inertial force and continental shelf waves.

Dynamic scaling characteristics of single-phase natural circulation based on different strain transformations

To understand the dynamical system scaling(DSS)analysis theory,the applicability of DSSβ-andω-strain transformation methods for the scaling analysis of complex loops was explored.A simplified model consisting of two loops was established based on the primary and secondary sides of a nuclear reactor,andβ-andω-strain transformation methods were used to ana-lyze the single-phase natural circulation in the primary circuit.For comparison with the traditional method,simplified DSSβ-andω-strain methods were developed based on the standard scaling criterion.The strain parameters in these four methods were modified to form multiple groups of scaled-down cases.The transient process of the natural circulation was simulated using the Relap5 code,and the variation in the dynamic flow characteristics with the strain numbers was obtained using different scaling methods.The results show that both the simplified and standard DSS methods can simulate the dynamic characteristics of natural circulation in the primary circuit.The scaled-down cases in the simplified method exhibit the same geometric scaling and correspond to small core power ratios.By contrast,different scaled-down cases in the standard DSS method correspond to different geometric scaling criteria and require more power.The dynamic process of natural circula-tion can be simulated more accurately using the standard DSS method.

Synoptic-scale reversal of dipole surface temperature anomalies over East Asia and Central Siberia in November 2021

2021年11月,东亚与中西伯利亚经历了相反的冷暖异常转换,表现为“中西伯利亚偏冷,东亚偏暖”与“中西伯利亚偏暖,东亚偏冷”的交替出现.该偶极型气温异常的天气尺度反转伴随着大尺度大气环流异常的反转.进一步分析表明,东亚与中西伯利亚的偶极型气温异常反转是1979-2021年期间11月欧亚气温日变化的主导模态之一(发生概率超过56%).

电化学水处理技术降低循环水硬度的实验研究

使用电化学法处理某焦化企业实际循环水的实验,探究了循环水的硬度和碱度去除率随处理时间的变化情况。分析了电流密度、水力停留时间、极板间距等实验操作参数以及商用阻垢剂对电解效果和能耗的影响。结果表明:硬度和碱度去除率随处理时间呈现先上升后平稳的趋势,且碱度去除率总是高于硬度去除率;电流密度为70 A/m^(2)、水力停留时间为6 min、极板间距为3 cm时电解效果最佳,硬度和碱度去除率可达27%以上,单位能耗低至13 kWh/kg;商用阻垢剂对电解效果具有阻碍作用。

2018年浙江梅雨降水异常偏少的大尺度环流特征及前兆信号分析

2018年浙江梅雨降水异常偏少,梅雨期平均环流特征欧亚中高纬度为“两槽一脊型”,西太平洋副热带高压(以下简称西太副高)偏东偏北,东亚高空急流偏北,浙江以南缺少低空急流的支持,不利于形成持续降水。6月上、中旬水汽输送不足、南北气流辐合较弱、东亚高空急流偏南、南海夏季风偏强、印度季风偏弱是梅雨开始偏晚的重要原因。梅汛期主要形成了三次降水过程(过程Ⅰ、过程Ⅱ和过程Ⅲ)和一次降水间歇过程,过程Ⅰ和过程Ⅱ表现为南北气流辐合型降水,过程Ⅲ为台风降水。系统分析了与不同过程相对应的大尺度环流及其演变特征,发现由于冷空气活动偏弱、南海夏季风偏强、西南水汽输送偏弱,过程Ⅰ的强度强于过程Ⅱ。在环流分析基础上,进一步挖掘与浙江梅雨有密切关联的海洋、大气和陆面信号,发现对该年梅雨异常偏弱有重要指示意义的前兆信号为冬、春季Ni?o关键区海温指数为正异常且北太平洋中部海温呈现负异常、冬季西南印度洋海温为正异常、春季喀拉海-巴伦支海海冰偏少、4-5月南半球环状模指数和北极涛动指数分别处于正位相和负位相。基于浙江梅雨序列,依托相关系数和同号率两个指标筛选出从前冬到春季稳定维持或有所增强的气候信号,利用多元线性回归、多因子综合判别、联合诊断三种方法分别构造可冬季发布和春季发布的梅雨预测模型,发现线性模型整体上能够较好地预测梅雨降水距平,特别是对降水偏少情形指示意义突出。

2023年6月1日辽宁龙卷过程多尺度特征及成因分析

利用加密自动站、FY-3G低轨气象卫星、多普勒雷达及历史观测数据等资料,对2023年6月1日发生在辽宁北部的系列龙卷天气过程进行诊断分析。结果表明:东北冷涡为此次对流天气提供干冷条件,地面气旋前部偏南气流向北输送暖湿空气,辽宁北部形成强的对流不稳定。低层存在近乎垂直分布的锋区,锋前950~750 hPa高度正涡度与垂直速度有较好的配合,动力抬升作用增强,利于对流系统的发展。伴随中尺度锋区出现的干线、温度梯度大值带以及冷池导致辽西生成线状对流云带,局地小尺度涡旋是产生阜新龙卷的动力触发系统。辽宁北部较强冷池与东南部的强暖脊之间产生的密度流造成冷池东侧局地偏西风增大,风速、风向辐合以及较强冷池3个有利条件在开原附近叠加,是触发开原龙卷的原因。在东北冷涡背景和辽宁西部沿海沿山的特殊地形作用下,辽宁北部容易出现产生龙卷的对流潜势条件,阜新三面高、中间低的倒“U”型特殊地形利于小尺度的气旋性闭合环流的形成,可能是阜新为辽宁龙卷中心的原因之一。

流通数字化赋能全国统一大市场建设的机理与效应研究

建设全国统一大市场是加快构建新发展格局的基础支撑和内在要求。本文聚焦流通数字化发展对全国统一大市场建设的影响,实证检验流通数字化赋能全国统一大市场建设的传导机制和异质特征。研究发现,流通数字化发展能够显著促进全国统一大市场建设,且该研究结论具有较强的稳健性。机制检验结果表明,流通数字化发展能够通过加快创新要素流动、扩大企业规模、释放消费潜力等途径促进全国统一大市场建设。异质性检验结果表明,在基础设施水平、城镇化率和人口集聚程度较高地区,流通数字化对全国统一大市场建设的促进作用较为明显。进一步研究发现,流通数字化与统一大市场之间存在基于基础设施、城镇化率和人口集聚水平的门槛效应。本文研究结论为我国进一步加快流通产业的数字化转型、破除区域间要素流动壁垒、推进统一大市场建设提供了经验证据。

天然气净化厂循环水系统无磷缓蚀阻垢剂研究与应用

目的在无磷缓蚀阻垢剂研发过程中,以聚环氧琥珀酸(PESA)与三元共聚物等为主要原料复配进行配方筛选。方法通过旋转挂片腐蚀实验、静态阻垢实验对无磷缓蚀阻垢剂进行适应性评价和研究。结果通过现场监测,该无磷缓蚀阻垢剂取得了良好的缓蚀阻垢效果,腐蚀速率控制低于0.075 mm/a。同时,对实验前后循环水细菌进行测定,结果呈现持续降低的趋势,水体富营养化程度降低,说明无磷配方对系统细菌控制具有积极的作用。结论室内研究及现场试验结果均证实该缓蚀阻垢剂体系在中、低硬度水质下具有优异的效果,能够保障天然气净化厂循环水系统的稳定运行。

甘肃河东夏季区域性短时强降水环流形势分类特征

甘肃河东地区短时强降水易致灾,预报预警难度大。利用2010-2021年夏季加密观测站逐小时降水资料和NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,筛选出甘肃河东50次区域性短时强降水天气过程,基于这些天气过程的500 hPa位势高度距平场,使用K均值客观聚类分析和主观天气学检验相结合的方法进行天气尺度环流形势分类,并通过合成分析和中尺度对流天气环境场条件分析方法构建不同类型的天气尺度系统配置概念模型。结果表明:(1)甘肃河东区域性短时强降水的天气尺度环流形势可分为高原槽东移型、副高边缘西南气流型、两高切变型和西北气流型四类。(2)副高边缘西南气流型引发的区域性短时强降水次数最多,两高切变型和高原槽东移型发生频率相当,西北气流型发生次数最少。(3)四种类型的环流形势在天气系统配置、抬升条件、水汽条件和不稳定条件等方面存在显著差异。高原槽东移型、副高边缘西南气流型、两高切变型三种类型发生时西太平洋副热带高压(以下简称西太副高)所处的位置逐渐向西向北推进,水汽条件和不稳定条件逐渐趋好,当高空槽引导冷空气东移南下,斜压锋生形成大范围短时强降水。高原槽东移型抬升条件最好,短时强降水落区偏南;两高切变型冷空气偏北且主要由对流层低层侵入,短时强降水落区偏北;副高边缘西南气流型冷暖气团交汇最剧烈,斜压锋生最强,短时强降水范围及强度也更大。西北气流型的动力条件和水汽条件是四类中最差的,但强烈的中高层干冷平流叠加低层暖湿气流或温度暖脊形成了四类中最好的不稳定条件,短时强降水落区较分散。

电磁场与电化学对循环冷却水系统中设备腐蚀及结垢的影响

循环冷却水对工业生产至关重要,但若长期使用,会使传输管道及换热设备产生腐蚀和结垢,这一直是循环冷却水使用过程中存在的顽疾。将环保、高效、时兴的新技术电磁场(旋磁加能器)和电化学(吸垢仪)创新地联合运用到水质更差的中水中,探索这种联合技术在循环冷却水系统上的防腐、防垢效果。通过搭建的小型工业水循环系统平台,验证了这种联合技术可有效减少循环冷却水系统的腐蚀和结垢问题,改善循环冷却水系统的运行状态,另外,为工业循环水企业提供了将中水用作循环冷却水的新思路,可为企业增加经济效益,实现节能减排。

1981~2020年华南地区区域性极端降水事件研究

基于华南地区176个国家级自动气象站资料以及1981~2020年ECMWF ERA5再分析资料,采用区域性极端事件的客观识别方法(OITREE)、合成分析等方法,本文研究了华南地区区域性极端降水事件的时空分布特征,并分析了事件偏多年及偏少年的大尺度环流特征。主要结论如下:区域性极端降水事件的频次在年际尺度上的周期变化较为明显,并具有较明显的月变化特征,高发时段为5~6月;在极端强度及影响范围上,华南地区大部分区域性极端降水事件强度约130 mm d^(-1),较少事件强度超出320 mm d^(-1),且区域性极端降水事件的影响范围呈显著上升趋势(约310 km^(2)a^(-1));在事件的综合强度上,综合指数Z呈现显著的上升趋势[0.05(10 a)^(-1)],表明事件强度呈现显著增加的趋势;在大湾区及广东北部,区域性极端降水事件的累计降水及其对总降水的贡献呈显著上升趋势,而在广西南部地区,两者呈下降趋势;在事件偏多年,华南地区存在显著的西南风水汽输送及整层水汽通量强辐合的特征,而在事件偏少年,华南地区具有整层水汽通量辐合偏弱的特征;一般降水日,850 hPa上华南地区位于弱偏东南风区,区域性极端降水事件降水日,华南地区位于气旋性环流的东南部,受到明显的西南风风速大值带影响。

青藏高原1981-2015年暖季降水变化趋势:受控于大尺度环流型变化

利用最新的高时空分辨率融合降水数据集,研究青藏高原的长期降水变化趋势。结果表明,在1981—2015年的暖季(5—9月),青藏高原降水量显著增加(格点平均趋势为0.9 mm/a),其东北部、中部和西部最为显著。采用T模态倾斜旋转主成分分析法(PCT),将青藏高原500 hPa位势高度场分为9个典型环流型,发现第2和第4环流型(T2和T4)是暖季降水量增加的主导环流型(DT)。DT位势高度场为西低东高的“槽脊对峙”分布,青藏高原暖季降水量增加体现在DT主导降水日数和日均降水量的共同增加。除DT环流型数量的增加导致青藏高原中西部降水增加外,降水增加机制还包括降水条件的优化,即T2以“槽脊对峙”加强为驱动的动力条件优化为主导,T4以“水汽滞增”加强为驱动的热力条件优化为主导。