Regional Variability of Climate Change Hot-Spots in East Asia

The regional climate change index （RCCI） is employed to investigate hot-spots under 21st century global warming over East Asia. The RCCI is calculated on a 1-degree resolution grid from the ensemble of CMIP3 simulations for the B1, AIB, and A2 IPCC emission scenarios. The RCCI over East Asia exhibits marked sub-regional variability. Five sub-regional hot-spots are identified over the area of investigation： three in the northern regions （Northeast China, Mongolia, and Northwest China）, one in eastern China, and one over the Tibetan Plateau. Contributions from different factors to the RCCI are discussed for the sub-regions. Analysis of the temporal evolution of the hot-spots throughout the 21st century shows different speeds of response time to global warming for the different sub-regions. Hot-spots firstly emerge in Northwest China and Mongolia. The Northeast China hot-spot becomes evident by the mid of the 21st century and it is the most prominent by the end of the century. While hot-spots are generally evident in all the 5 sub-regions for the A1B and A2 scenarios, only the Tibetan Plateau and Northwest China hot-spots emerge in the B1 scenario, which has the lowest greenhouse gas （GHG） concentrations. Our analysis indicates that subregional hot-spots show a rather complex spatial and temporal dependency on the GHG concentration and on the different factors contributing to the RCCI.

Characteristics of Anthropogenic Sulfate and Carbonaceous Aerosols over East Asia: Regional Modeling and Observation

The authors present spatial and temporal characteristics of anthropogenic sulfate and carbonaceous aerosols over East Asia using a 3-D coupled regional climate-chemistry-aerosol model, and compare the simulation with the limited aerosol observations over the region. The aerosol module consists of SO2, SO4^2-, hydrophobic and hydrophilic black carbon （BC） and organic carbon compounds （OC）, including emission, advections, dry and wet deposition, and chemical production and conversion. The simulated patterns of SO2 are closely tied to its emission rate, with sharp gradients between the highly polluted regions and more rural areas. Chemical conversion （especially in the aqueous phase） and dry deposition remove 60% and 30% of the total SO2 emission, respectively. The SO4^2- shows less horizontal gradient and seasonality than SO2, with wet deposition （60%） and export （27%） being two major sinks. Carbonaceous aerosols are spatially smoother than sulfur species. The aging process transforms more than 80% of hydrophobic BC and OC to hydrophilic components, which are removed by wet deposition （60%） and export （30%）. The simulated spatial and seasonal SO4^2-, BC and OC aerosol concentrations and total aerosol optical depth are generally consistent with the observations in rural areas over East Asia, with lower bias in simulated OC aerosols, likely due to the underestimation of anthropogenic OC emissions and missing treatment of secondary organic carbon. The results suggest that our model is a useful tool for characterizing the anthropogenic aerosol cycle and for assessing its potential climatic and environmental effects in future studies.

Regional Endeavours Rrequired to Deal With Water Vulnerability in East and Southeast Asia

Booming economic development during the past decades has made the East and Southeast Asian region one of the most dynamic economies in the world and brought about rapid urbanization. It is expected that Asia will account for 12 of the world’s 25 cities with population exceeding 10 million by 2000. Tokyo will have more than 27 million people and Shanghai and Jakarta will each have more than 20 million people. Demand for water supply, as a result, will drastically increase. Data show that most of the East and Southeast Asian countries are faced with serious water shortage and contamination, in particular in the urbanized areas. The vulnerability of water supply constituents one of the greatest threats to the sustainable socio economic development of the region. Great efforts have been made to conserve both surface and subsurface water resources, to protect water from contamination and to use water in an efficient way. In addition to the establishment of administrative agencies under the governments in individual countries, a number of regional and country wide projects have been launched for a solution to ease the water vulnerability. The Coordinating Committee for Coastal and Offshore Geoscience Programmes in East and Southeast Asia (CCOP), an intergovernmental organization of the region, has devoted itself to coordinating regional endeavours to solve applied geoscientific problems through technology transfer, human resources development and regional data compilation. The regional map series and related databases produced by CCOP have provided useful information on regional geological background, which is also essential for the solution of water problems. However, it is obvious that regional efforts are not enough to meet the challenges we are faced with. In addition to raising public awareness and governmental concerns, advanced technologies, in particular those used in the petroleum industry to deal with oil and gas, a sort of fluid resources similar to water, must be adopted to the water supply industry. Since 1996, CCOP has, in cooperation with the developed countries, been working on a project called Petrowater. The Project aims at using the technology and infrastructures related to the oil industry to the water supply industry.

From Going Beyond the “Nation-State” to the Construction of the “East Asia Community”? Myths About “East Asia New Regionalism”

With the deepening of globalization,geographically speaking,East Asian countries have proceeded from their respective realist positions and tried to promote the successful practice of economic cooperation between countries after the Cold War into a discussion of new regionalism in East Asia and Asia-Pacificism.Although the prototype of the“East Asia Community”led by Association of Southeast Asian Nations(ASEAN)gradually emerged,the successful practice of the East Asia Summit proved that the low-binding regional integration model led by ASEAN has a high probability of becoming a classic sample of the“East Asia Community”.It not only maintains regional stability,promotes regional cooperation,shapes regional norms,but also builds a collective identity within the region.However,in today’s world,isolationism which takes the supremacy of national interests as the supremacy has risen.It is difficult to internalize the value identity into a super-national model that breaks through the principles of realism,breakthroughs in interests,and the power framework.The thorny issues pose various challenges to the nation-states in the region trying to integrate into regional integration.The openness of East Asian regionalism has led to the persistent illness of its generalization.In the context of insufficient political mutual trust among regional countries,intensified competition among major powers,and continued weakening of ASEAN leadership,it is often prone to controversy and doubt when proposing new cooperation initiatives or ideas.The idea of the“East Asia Community”that once guided East Asian cooperation and was temporarily ignored now is still the most realistic choice.Although the theoretical construction and practical roads of East Asian regionalism are full of thorns,difficulties coexist with opportunities.With the extensive participation of countries in the region,the optimization and reconstruction of the East Asian cooperation model will be worth looking forward to.

The East Asia regional meeting of International Program on rice biotechnology was held in CNRRI

Supported by the Rockefeller Foundation, the East Asia regional meeting of the international program on rice biotechnology was held in CNRRI Nov 5—8 1996. About 76 delegates from home and abroad attended the meeting and more than 80 papers were presented or posted. The objective of the meeting was to review the status of rice biotechnology since 1995 and to promote the international collaborative activities. The topic involved anther culture, gene isolation and characterization, transfer and expression of foreign genes, etc.

Actively Promoting Regional Space Cooperation——Vice Administrator, Loan Enjie headed a delegation to attend the Second Asia-Pacific Conference on Multilateral Cooperation in Space Technology and Applications

A Chinese delegation of 24 persons headed by Mr. Luan Enjie, Vice Administrator of China National Space Administration (CNSA) attended the Second Asia-Pacific Conference on Multilateral Cooperation in Space Technology and Applications held at Islamabad, the Capital of Pakistan from April 22 to 26, 1995. Following the First AsiaPacific Workshop held in Beijing in December, 1992, and the First Asia-Pacific Conference on Multilateral Cooperation in

ICRC's Presence in East Asia——An Interview with Mr.Thierry Meyrat—Director of Regional Delegation for East Asia of the ICRC

Q：Our readers are certainly fa- miliar with the ＂Red Cross＂ emblem, but maybe not so familiar with the Regional Delegation for East Asia of the International Committee of the Red Cross （ICRC）. Could you please introduce the Regional Delegation for East Asia of the ICRC？ Besides routine activities, could you please let us know what has been done by the delegation？ Could you please say something about your Chinese partner？

SIMULATION OF PRESENT CLIMATE OVER EAST ASIA BY A REGIONAL CLIMATE MODEL

A 15-year simulation of climate over East Asia is conducted with the latest version of a regional climate model RegCM3 nested in one-way mode to the ERA40 Re-analysis data. The performance of the model in simulating present climate over East Asia and China is investigated. Results show that RegCM3 can reproduce well the atmospheric circulation over East Asia. The simulation of the main distribution patterns of surface air temperature and precipitation over China and their seasonal cycle/evolution, are basically agree with that of the observation. Meanwhile a general cold bias is found in the simulation. As for the precipitation, the model tends to overestimate the precipitation in northern China while underestimate it in southern China, particularly in winter. In general, the model has better performance in simulating temperature than precipitation.

Effects of spectral nudging on the 2010 East Asia summer monsoon using WRF model

The performance of spectral nudging in an investigation of the 2010 East Asia summer monsoon was assessed using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, forced by 1-degree NCEP Global Final Analysis (FNL). Two pairs of experiments were made, spectral nudging (SP) and non-spectral nudging (NOSP), with five members in each group. The members were distinguished by different initial times, and the analysis was based on the ensemble mean of the two simulation pairs. The SP was able to constrain error growth in large-scale circulation in upper-level, during simulation, and generate realistic regional scale patterns. The main focus was the model ability to simulate precipitation. The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) 3B42 product was used for precipitation verification. Mean precipitation magnitude was generally overestimated by WRF. Nevertheless, SP simulations suppressed overestimation relative to the NOSP experiments. Compared to TRMM, SP also improved model simulation of precipitation in spatial and temporal distributions, with the ability to reproduce movement of rainbands. However, extreme precipitation events were suppressed in the SP simulations.

Role of Anthropogenic Volatile Organic Compounds and Nitrogen Oxides as Ozone Precursors in the Wintertime over East Asia

As an exercise in model sensitivity, the Models-3 Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) modeling system with meteorological fields from the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) was applied to study the response of photochemical oxidants to systematic increases in anthropogenic volatile organic compounds (VOC) and nitrogen oxides (NO x) emissions in January 1997 over East Asia. Three simulations-one base case and two sensitivity simulations were carried out. Two sensitivity simulations were performed by assuming a 35% separate increase in anthropogenic VOC and NO x emissions comparing with the base case. Biogenic VOC emissions were held constant across the sensitivity simulations. To evaluate the model performance, ozone mixing ratios (O 3) from the base case simulation were compared with surface observations at five remote sites in Japan, and it was found that the model reproduces most of the important features in the observations. Monthly average O 3 concentrations in the daytime were examined to gain an understanding of how the increase in anthropogenic emissions affected the overall chemical system for each sensitivity simulation.

A Modified Double-Moment Bulk Microphysics Scheme Geared toward the East Asian Monsoon Region

Representation of cloud microphysical processes is one of the key aspects of numerical models.An improved double-moment bulk cloud microphysics scheme(named IMY)was created based on the standard Milbrandt-Yau(MY)scheme in the Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF)model for the East Asian monsoon region(EAMR).In the IMY scheme,the shape parameters of raindrops,snow particles,and cloud droplet size distributions are variables instead of fixed constants.Specifically,the shape parameters of raindrop and snow size distributions are diagnosed from their respective shape-slope relationships.The shape parameter for the cloud droplet size distribution depends on the total cloud droplet number concentration.In addition,a series of minor improvements involving detailed cloud processes have also been incorporated.The improved scheme was coupled into the WRF model and tested on two heavy rainfall cases over the EAMR.The IMY scheme is shown to reproduce the overall spatial distribution of rainfall and its temporal evolution,evidenced by comparing the modeled results with surface gauge observations.The simulations also successfully capture the cloud features by using satellite and ground-based radar observations as a reference.The IMY has yielded simulation results on the case studies that were comparable,and in ways superior to MY,indicating that the improved scheme shows promise.Although the simulations demonstrated a positive performance evaluation for the IMY scheme,continued experiments are required to further validate the scheme with different weather events.

下半年Nino3区海表升温对东亚春季大气环流及山东春季降水的影响

通过分析下半年Nino3区(150°~90°W,5°S^5°N)海表温度(SST)升高引起的次年春季500 hPa高度、850 hPa及200 hPa经向风的异常特征,发现下半年Nino3区显著升温,可导致次年春季热带和西北太平洋副热带地区的500 hPa高度场升高,即西太平洋副热带高压偏强、偏西、偏北,东亚大槽偏弱、偏东;巴尔喀什湖至贝加尔湖的高度场降低,即该地区经常有低槽维持;亚洲至西太平洋地区盛行纬向环流。我国东部沿海地区及邻近海域的偏南风加强,而我国东北和华北地区的偏北风偏弱。这种高度场与风场的异常恰与山东4月降水偏多年所对应的异常特征相吻合,即下半年Nino3区显著升温通过影响次年春季大气环流异常,进而影响山东春季降水。资料统计表明,下半年Nino3区显著升温,次年山东及我国中纬度东部地区春季尤其4月的降水往往偏多。

The Distribution of Petroleum Resources and Characteristics of Main Petroliferous Basins along the Silk Road Economic Belt and the 21st-Century Maritime Silk Road

The Silk Road Economic Belt and the 21st-Century Maritime Silk Road Initiative, abbreviated as the Belt and Road Initiative, is a primary development strategy of China＇s future international cooperation. Especially, the energy resource cooperation, including oil and gas resources cooperation, is an important part of this initiative. The Belt and Road has undergone complicated geological evolution, and contains abundant mineral resources such as oil, gas, coal, uranium, iron, copper, gold and manganese ore resources. Among these, Africa holds 7.8% of the world＇s total proven oil reserves. The oil and gas resources in Africa are relatively concentrated, with an overall low exploration degree and small consumption demand. Nigeria and Libya contain the most abundant oil resources in Africa, accounting for 2.2% and 2.9% of the world＇s total reserves, respectively. Nigeria and Algeria hold the richest natural gas resources in Africa, occupying 2.8% and 2.4% of the world＇s total reserves, respectively. Africa＇s oil and gas resources are mainly concentrated in Egypt, Sultan and Western Sahara regions in the northern Africa, and the Gulf of Guinea, Niger River and Congo River area in the western Africa. The Russia--Central Asia area holds rich petroleum resources in Russia, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. The potential oil and gas areas include the West Siberia Basin, East Siberia Basin and sea continental shelf in Russia, the northern and central Caspian Basin in Kazakhstan, the right bank of the Amu-Darya Basin, the East Karakum uplift and the South Caspian Basin in Turkmenistan, and the Amu-Daria Basin, Fergana Basin, Afghan-Tajik Basin and North Ustyurt Basin in Uzbekistan. The Middle East oil and gas resources are mainly distributed in the Zagros foreland basin and Arabian continental margin basin, and the main oil-producing countries include Saudi Arabia, Iran and Iraq. The Asia Pacific region is a new oil and gas consumption center, with rapid growth of oil and gas demand. In 2012, this region consumed about 33.6% of the world＇s total oil consumption and 18.9% of the world＇s total natural gas consumption, which has been ranked the world＇s largest oil and gas consumption center. The oil and gas resources are concentrated in China, Indosinian, Malaysia, Australia and India. The abundant European proven crude oil reserves are in Norway, Britain and Denmark and also rich natural gas resources in Norway, Holland and Britain. Norway and Britain contain about 77.5% of European proven oil reserves, which accounts for only 0.9% of the world＇s proven reserves. The Europe includes main petroliferous basins of the Voring Basin, Anglo-Dutch Basin, Northwest German Basin, Northeast German-Polish Basin and Carpathian Basin. According to the analysis of source rocks, reservoir rocks, cap rocks and traps for the main petroliferous basins, the potential oil and gas prospecting targets in the Belt and Road are mainly the Zagros Basin and Arabic Platform in the Middle East, the East Barents Sea Basin and the East Siberia Basin in Russia-Central Asia, the Niger Delta Basin, East African rift system and the Australia Northwest Shelf. With the development of oil and gas theory and exploration technology, unconventional petroleum resources will play an increasingly important role in oil and gas industry.

Preliminary results of a regional air-sea coupled model over East Asia

We have established a regional air-sea coupled model over East Asia and conducted a 20-year integration to evaluate its performance in reproducing the present climate.The coupled model consists of RegCM3 and HYCOM controlled by the OASIS3 coupler with resuolution of 60 km for the atmosphere and 33 km for the ocean,respectively.Unlike some other regional air-sea coupled models,a one-way nesting method is employed in the oceanic component and a heat flux adjustment for solar radiation is used to remove an about 2°C cold bias in SST.The primary analysis for this 20-year integration shows that the coupled model successfully reproduces the main features of the circulations over East Asia,both in the atmosphere and the ocean,including climatology,seasonal and interannual variations.Improvements are seen in the coupled model compared to the uncoupled one,especially in the simulation of precipitation,the most important element of the East Asian monsoon,although there are still obvious discrepancies that come mainly from the model components themselves.Further analyses show that the rainfall simulation benefits from the enhancements of the Northwest Pacific Subtropical High in summer,which leads to the improvement of the moisture flux simula-tion at the middle-lower atmospheric circulation.The results indicate that the regional air-sea coupled model is more suitable for the East Asia monsoon simulation.

美日同盟调整:现代化、一体化和多边化

同盟一般会伴随实力的变化发生调整。美日同盟的调整表现为:一是同盟的现代化,美国要求日本承担更多责任,反映了美国由于霸权衰退不得不谋求日本发挥更大作用的现实;二是同盟的一体化,美日两国在军事领域加强共同指挥和作战机制的统合,在武器部署上也实现一体化,导致日本进一步失去自主性;三是同盟的多边化,美国为了推行“印太战略”遏制中国,鼓励日本与其他地区盟国和伙伴国建立军事联系,除了印度、澳大利亚和东盟国家之外,日本也在美国的默许下与欧洲国家进行军事合作,试图在亚太地区建立一个以美日同盟为核心的多边战略集团。美日同盟的调整,给亚洲地区的和平与稳定带来不确定因素,也使日本在美国的战车上越绑越紧。

当前东北亚地缘政治变局中的日本因素

当前国际局势变乱交织,既有国际秩序的约束力正在降低,新的国际规则和秩序体系尚未形成。受此影响,东北亚地缘政治变局体现在域外势力介入与内外乱局搅动相互交织、相互作用,具有长期性、复杂性、残酷性的特点。日本作为东北亚重要国家,倚靠美西方势力增大自身威慑、争当战略支点,借助俄乌冲突、朝核问题、台湾问题搅动,突破战后制裁、争取战争主动、制衡大国博弈,通过构筑强国战略,试图成为地区领导者和国际秩序建构者,同时极力排斥发展中国家的多边主义诉求。日本地缘政治战略源于长久以来逐渐固化的错误的世界观、历史观和国家发展理念,加之受美国保守政治管控和引导,所以其保守政治右倾化趋势仍将持续,且目标明确、路径清晰、理念成熟、体系完备。可以预见,日本战略逻辑和行事风格不会发生根本改变,但会根据全球及地区形势做出调整,有些行为可能具有迷惑性,须提高警惕。

日本社会保障面临的挑战——基于人口减少社会的视角

日本已成功建立了全面的社会保障体系,实现了全民医疗和全民年金等目标。该制度的演变跨越了漫长的历史,适应了每个时代的挑战。第二次世界大战结束后,日本采取政策措施为生活贫困者、儿童和残疾人建立了相应的社会救助和社会福利制度。从20世纪50年代末到70年代初,日本完善了全民医疗和全民年金等社会保障制度。自20世纪90年代起,日本开始应对出生率下降和人口老龄化问题,并对社会保障制度进行改革,以确保其可持续性。至此,日本建成了包括医疗、年金、长期护理、育儿支持和公共援助在内的全面社会保障体系以保障民生。然而,在未来老龄化社会的背景下,出生率下降、人口减少以及地区差异的存在,都给政策带来了挑战,包括财政的可持续性、基于社区的医疗和社会服务供给的发展以及应对相对贫困等政策。当前人口减少不仅在日本,在中国和韩国也已成为普遍现象。对中日韩的研究人员来说,探讨人口减少背景下的社会保障等政策选择具有重要意义。

全球变化科学领域的若干研究进展

介绍了中国科学院大气物理研究所东亚中心在全球变化科学研究方面的一些进展。主要包括:(1)参与了国际和国内全球变化科学的开拓工作;(2)提出了区域水平上的全球变化研究新方向;(3)气候突变和全球增暖的区域响应研究;(4)东亚季风区植被—大气相互作用研究;(5)区域环境系统模式的发展和亚洲区域模式的国际比较研究活动;(6)提出了对全球变化的人类有序适应的概念、试验观测、理论和方法;(7)面向国家需求的全球变化问题—北方干旱化研究;(8)陆地生态系统碳循环研究等。

RegCM3对东亚环流和中国气候模拟能力的检验

使用RegCM3区域气候模式,嵌套ERA40再分析资料,对东亚地区进行了15年（1987～2001年）时间长度的数值积分试验,分析了模式对东亚平均环流及中国地区气温和降水的模拟。结果表明,模式对东亚平均环流的特征和中国地区降水、地面气温的年、季地理分布和季节变化特征均具有一定的模拟能力,对气温和降水年际变率的模拟也较好。此外模式模拟在测站稀少地区,可以提供局地如降水分布更可靠的信息。模式对气温的模拟存在1-3℃的系统性冷偏差;对中国地区降水地理分布的模拟也存在一定偏差,如对年平均降水的模拟中,降水最大值位置与观测有一定差距,特别是对冬季降水中心的模拟存在较大偏差。模式模拟的夏季降水,在中国北方地区总体偏大100-200 mm,南方总体偏小100-200 mm。模式对地面气温的模拟效果好于降水。

中国西部植被覆盖变化对北方夏季气候影响的数值模拟

植被覆盖的变化是气候变化的成因之一,植被改变对气候的反馈可能会加强或者减缓气候的变化。文中利用CCM3全球气候模式以及20世纪70年代和90年代中国西部的植被覆盖资料进行数值模拟试验,研究了这两个时期植被变化对北方夏季区域气候的影响。模拟结果表明:植被增加的地方,地面吸收的辐射通量增加;植被减少的地方,地面吸收的辐射通量减少。地面辐射平衡的变化造成局地大气热量异常,并引起周边大气热量的调整,从而导致东亚地区夏季大气环流异常。相对于70年代的植被状况,用90年代植被模拟的北方地区对流层上层为异常气旋性环流,而中、低层为异常反气旋环流,东北亚到中国东部盛行异常北风,同时西太平洋副热带高压强度偏弱、位置偏南。这种异常环流特征说明模拟的90年代中国东部夏季风明显减弱,异常的环流形势造成华北和东北地区夏季水汽输送减少,水汽辐合减弱,年降水量减少了40 mm,呈现减少的特征,这是和观测事实是比较吻合的。降水和环流的异常还造成华北和东北夏季平均地面气温降低了0.4—0.8℃。因此近30年来中国西部植被变化可能是东亚夏季风年代际变化以及北方夏季降水减少的一个重要因素。