Paired Assistance:Policy Rationale and Economic Performance as Illustrated by Xizang and Xinjiang

This study highlights the changing priorities of China’s paired assistance throughout the past decades,as well as its theoretical implications and economic growth effects for recipient regions.Using panel data from 32 prefecture-level cities from 1990 to 2020,this study uses the multiperiod difference-in-differences approach to examine how paired assistance has contributed to economic growth in Xizang Autonomous Region and Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region.The findings indicate that,first,the implementation of the paired assistance policy has boosted economic growth in Xizang and Xinjiang.Second,paired assistance has stimulated economic growth in recipient communities by improving infrastructure.Third,paired assistance has contributed to economic growth in recipient communities by providing improved public services such as education and healthcare.Improvements to public services have a relatively smaller indirect effect in short term than infrastructure development on economic growth.Yet both education and healthcare are crucial to people’s quality of life in recipient communities.This paper has refined and broadened research on the effects of paired assistance,providing preference for future policymaking.

The heterogeneous impact of China-Europe railway express on the efficiency of logistics industry in node cities

Purpose-The spatiotemporal compression effect of China-Europe Railway Express(CR-Express)can reduce the filow costs of resources between China's node cities.Additionally,it can break through the limitations of low-added-value marine products,significantly impacting the logistics industry efficiency.However,there are few literature verifying and analyzing its heterogeneity.This study explores the impact of CR-Express on the efficiency of logistics industry in node cities and analyzes the heterogeneity.Design/methodology/approach-First,this study uses panel data to measure the efficiency of node city logistics industry.Secondiy,this study discusses the impact of the opening of CR-Express on the efficiency of logistics industry in node cities based on the multi-period differential model.Finally,according to the node city difference,the sample city experimental group is grouped for heterogeneity analysis.Findings-The results show that CR-Express can promote the urban logistics industry efficiency,with an average effect of 4.55%.According to the urban characteristics classification,the heterogeneity analysis shows that the efficiency improvement effect of logistics industry in inland cities is more obvious.The improvement effect of node cities and central cities in central and western China is stronger,especially in the sample of megacities and type I big cities.Compared with non-value chain industrial products,the CR-Express has significant promotion effects on the logistics efficiency of the cities where main goods are value chain products.Originality/value-Under the background of double cycle development,this paper can provide a scientific basis for the investment benefit evaluation of CR-Express construction and the follow-up route planning.

Promoting or inhibiting? Green fiscal policy and urban green innovation

Can green fiscal policy(GFP)incentivize the proliferation of urban green innovation(GI)and be a novel cata‐lyst for energy conservation and emission reduction within the“dual-carbon”framework?This paper explores GFP ramifications for GI by implementing a difference-in-differences model in a natural experiment centered on the“Comprehensive Demonstration City of Energy Saving and Emission Reduction Fiscal Policies”.The em‐pirical analysis reveals several key findings:(1)GFP exhibits significant augmentation at the GI level,with an observable evolutionary trend of increasing marginal impact.Importantly,these outcomes withstand rigorous robustness tests,including propensity score matching.(2)A mechanism analysis elucidates the dual impact of GFP on GI growth.GFP directly fosters GI advancement indirectly by promoting talent aggregation,expanding scientific and technological investment,and attracting external financial resources.(3)A heterogeneity analy‐sis demonstrates that GFP enhancement of GI is closely associated with the patent category,manifesting a dis‐tinct pattern of“eastern region>other regions”and“non-resource cities>resource cities”.The study’s em‐pirical findings offer crucial real-world insights to guide the Chinese government in formulating a more effi‐cient GFP and facilitating the expansion of innovative endeavors while contributing to environmentally sus‐tainable and high-value development.

Does innovative city pilot policy promote urban green growth in China?An analysis of green total factor productivity,2005-2020

The innovative city pilot policy(ICPP)is an essential manifestation of China’s construction of an innovative and green-driven development country.We incorporated urban green total factor productivity(GTFP)growth into the evaluation of ICPP.Based on the panel data of 223 cities in China from 2005 to 2020,we used the difference-in-differences model to empirically assess the influence and mechanism of the ICPP on urban GTFP growth.The main results show that(i)The ICPP has maintained an effectively fluctuating promotion on urban GTFP growth,mainly manifested in the urban green technological progress improvement.(ii)The ICPP has urban heterogeneity in promoting GTFP growth in pilot cities,mainly affecting key cities such as provincial capitals.(iii)The interaction between the agglomeration of producer services and the ICPP inhibits GTFP growth in pilot cities.

The Effect of Urban Agglomeration Expansion on PM_(2.5) Concentrations: Evidence from a Quasi-natural Experiment

This study constructs a quasi-natural experiment based on the expansion of the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration(YRDUA) of China in 2010 to investigate the impact and inner mechanism of urban agglomeration expansion on fine particulate matter(PM_(2.5)) concentrations through propensity scores in difference-in-differences models(PSM-DID) using panel data from 286 prefecturelevel cities in China from 2003 to 2016. The results show that 1) urban agglomeration expansion contributes to an overall decrease in PM_(2.5)concentration, which is mainly achieved from the original cities. For the new cities, on the other hand, the expansion significantly increases the local PM_(2.5)concentration. 2) In the long term, the significant influence of urban agglomeration expansion on PM_(2.5)concentration lasts for three years and gradually decreases. A series of robustness tests confirm the applicability of the PSM-DID model.3) Cities with weaker government regulation, a better educated population and higher per capita income present stronger PM_(2.5)reduction effects. 4) Urban agglomeration expansion affects the PM_(2.5)concentration mainly through industrial transfer and population migration, which cause a decrease in the PM_(2.5)concentration in the original cities and an increase in the PM_(2.5)concentration in the new cities.Corresponding policy suggestions are proposed based on the conclusions.

基于支持向量分位数回归多期VaR测度

为实现VaR风险准确测度,考虑到波动聚集、厚尾与非对称等金融市场典型特征,基于支持向量分位数回归模型,研究了VaR及其影响因素之间的线性及非线性依赖关系,给出了多期VaR风险测度方法,并将其与传统VaR风险测度方法进行了比较.选取上证指数、香港恒生指数和标准普尔500指数进行实证研究,VaR回测检验结果表明基于支持向量分位数回归模型的多期VaR风险测度在样本内与样本外都有良好的表现.

财产保险公司投资组合问题的多阶段随机规划模型(英文)

财产保险公司的投资组合模型均是单期的 ,不能充分满足投资组合管理实践的需要 .为提供多期规划工具 ,建立了一个多阶段的随机规划模型 .它考虑了交易成本 ,分析了不同时期的现金流 ,讨论了资产负债的匹配问题 ,去掉了收益分布的正态假定 ,并增加了一种投资约束 .数值实例的计算结果表明 ,多期模型能更好地帮助财产保险公司选择保险与投资的优化组合 。

多周期Probit模型中MLE的存在性

本文我们讨论了多周期Probit模型中MLE的存在性问题,给出了当协方差阵已知时,参数的MLE存在的充要条件;当协方差阵未知但具有序列结构时,参数的MLE存在的一个必要条件和一个充分条件.

Research on Fossil Fuel Related Carbon Emissions Reduction Scheme Effects

There is a worldwide consensus that excessive anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions will lead to global warming and other environmental problems.Supports from regulations and policies have gradually implemented in this area.As one of the most discussed policies,the carbon emissions trading schemes(CETS)has an advantage in its price-oriented and cost-saving characteristics.In this paper,we analyze and assess the CETS effect from static and dynamic perspectives by applying provincial panel data covering a period ranging from 2004 to 2017.The CETS policy has a significant constraining effect on both carbon emissions and primary energy consumption.Compared to the other two uncertainties,namely the energy price uncertainty and the technology uncertainty,the carbon permit price uncertainty has a relatively smooth impact on the economy,which is being pursued consistently by the policymakers.

具有机会约束的多阶段可信性M-AD投资组合优化

基于可信性理论,考虑交易成本、借贷约束、阈值约束和基数约束等现实约束,提出了一种新的具有机会约束的多阶段可信性均值—绝对偏差(M-AD)投资组合优化模型,运用可信性均值和绝对偏差度量资产的收益和风险;基于可信性理论,将该模型转化为确定型的动态优化问题;提出一种新的前向动态规划方法,以获得最优投资组合策略;最后,通过实证研究验证了该模型和算法的有效性.研究结果表明:基于机会约束理论,该模型在给定的置信水平下,收益率不会低于某个预先给定的值.

炼化生产计划优化的应用研究——以大庆石化公司为例

为实现炼化生产经营效益最大化,总结了炼化生产计划优化技术及理论的发展及现状,分析了中国炼化生产计划优化技术及理论应用存在的问题。基于大庆石化公司简化虚拟炼化生产流程模型及2007年4月炼化生产计划数据,运用线性规划法计算了充分考虑市场变化和炼化工艺条件的最优解。大庆石化公司炼化生产经营利润的最优解为17 188.65万元,而炼化生产经营利润的某一次优解为15 081.7万元,所有次优解均低于最优解。从炼化生产计划优化实例可知,恰当地运用线性规划能够提高炼化生产经营效益、实现炼化生产经营效益最大化。Delta-Base、悬摆切割(Swing-cut)、分布式递归、多变量整数规划(MIP)、多周期建模等高级生产计划优化技术的应用,可进一步提高炼化生产计划优化模型精度,实现炼化生产经营效益最大化。

Impact of the Belt and Road Initiative on environmental quality in countries along the routes

China has adhered to the concept of green development since the introduction of the Belt and Road Initiative in 2013.However,as the initiative continues to advance,speculations have been raised on the possibility of its reduction of the environmental quality of the countries along the routes.So,has the seven-year-old Belt and Road Initiative reduced the environmental quality of these countries and how does it affect the environmental quality?To address these issues,this study conducted a quasi-natural experiment,based on the WDI 2005-2017 data,the human development index database of the World Bank and the OECD(Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development)database.A country-year panel data was constructed using the difference-in-differences model to assess the countries along the‘area’initiative for environmental effects,and to further examine the heterogeneity and the policy effect mechanism.The main conclusions were as follows:①The Belt and Road Initiative had significantly improved the environmental quality of countries along the routes.The conclusions remained robust after the introduction of the placebo test,the use of instrumental variables to alleviate possible endogenous problems and a series of other robustness tests.②The results of heterogeneity analysis showed that the Belt and Road Initiative exerted a greater effect on the countries with lower environmental quality than those with higher quality in terms of environmental improvements.③Mechanism analysis showed that the Belt and Road Initiative improved the environmental quality of countries along the routes by promoting technological progress and strengthening environmental regulation,but it failed to significantly improve the environmental quality of these countries by promoting clean energy structure and industrial structure and increasing the scale effect.Therefore,China should continue to vigorously promote the concept of developing a green Belt and Road,expand the coverage of the green Belt and Road,improve the level of clean energy structure of the Belt and Road countries through investment and cooperation,and promote the clean transformation of their industrial structure.These findings provide empirical evidence and implications for the better promotion of the green Belt and Road Initiative,and have certain reference value for the follow-up implementation of the Belt and Road Initiative.

“The Source of Flowing Water”:How Targeted Poverty Alleviation Helps China’s Rural Poor Access Credit

Based on the China Household Finance Survey(CHFS)data of 2011-2017,this paper investigated the effects of China’s targeted poverty alleviation policy on rural credit access and amount using the“difference-in-differences”methodology.This study found that the targeted poverty alleviation policy increased the availability and amount of formal credit to poor households and reduced the proportion and amount of their borrowing through informal channels,and that the effects increased amid the policy’s implementation over time.This paper further found that the policy effects were more significant for China’s western regions,reflecting a positive role of targeted poverty alleviation in coordinating pro-poor finance across regions.Compared with poor counties,poor households from non-poor counties experienced a greater increase in their probability and amount of formal credit access,reflecting China’s approach of reducing regional poverty before targeting more precisely at individual poor households.This paper also uncovered that no significant“elite capture”effect had existed in the allocation of formal agricultural credit under targeted poverty alleviation,but extremely poor households experienced no significant change in their access to formal credit.While the targeted poverty alleviation policy has helped create a sound rural credit market,it should further improve access to formal finance for extremely poor households.

Impact of an official accountability audit on industrial structure adjustment:a case study of environmental regulation in China

As a unique environmental regulation in China,the official accountability audit was piloted in 2014.With a focus on prioritizing the ecological environment,officials in pilot districts have implemented economic construction,adjusted industrial structures,and promoted coordinated development between the economy and environment.The effects of implementation have garnered widespread attention from society.However,there is limited research on the impact of an accountability audit on industrial structure adjustments.Using the“Accountability Audit of Officials for Natural Resource Assets(Trial)”released in 2015 as a quasi-natural experiment,this study collected panel data from 279 cities between 2013 and 2017.It then empirically analyzed the impact mechanism and effects of the accountability audit on industrial structure adjustment using the Propensity Score Matching and Difference-in-Differences model.The research findings indicate that the accountability audit directly impacted industrial structure adjustment,promoting the upgrading of the primary industry to the secondary industry and restricting the development of the tertiary industry.In addition,the audit is beneficial for enterprise entry,but not conducive to technological innovation,and has no significant impact on foreign direct investment.This conclusion fills a gap in the existing research and provides valuable insights for policymakers.

Are cities greener because of innovation?Independent innovation policy and green economic efficiency

The national independent innovation demonstration zone(NIIDZ)is an independent innovation policy that plays a crucial role in implementing strategies.Given the importance of the NIIDZ,this study uses panel data of 278 prefecture-level cities in China from 2006 to 2020 and empirically examines the effect and internal mechanism of the NIIDZ on green economic efficiency(GEE)using the difference-in-difference model(DID).The results show that the NIIDZ effectively enhances the growth of GEE,and the results remain valid through several robustness tests,such as year-by-year propensity score matching.The transmission mechanism suggests that the NIIDZ indirectly drives GEE by accelerating scientific and technological investment,promoting talent concentration,and optimizing the industrial structure.Moreover,heterogeneity analysis reveals that the promotion effect of the NIIDZ on GEE is more prominent in the eastern region and high green development level areas.The study’s findings can serve as a reference for China to further utilize the policy effectiveness of the NIIDZ and accelerate the high-quality development of the green economy in the future.

新型城镇化改革与缩小城乡收入差距——基于县级行政区面板数据的实证研究

城乡收入差距居高不下是全球性难题,我国新型城镇化改革成果能否公平惠及不同人群和地区,进而缩小城乡居民收入差距,是一个备受关注的问题。本文借助三批新型城镇化综合试点提供的准自然实验背景,基于2012年至2019年2805个县级行政区的面板数据和多期双重差分模型,使用插补估计方法对政策效应进行评估后发现,在这一较短时间段内,新型城镇化改革对试点县级行政区的城乡人均可支配收入差距有正向影响。产业结构转型升级加快、地方政府宏观调控力度加大、非农固定资产投资占比提高、县域耕地面积减少以及由于户口性质转换导致的纯统计意义上的城乡收入水平变化,是该影响的重要作用机制。异质性分析显示,中部和西部试点地区的城乡收入差距在政策作用下显著缩小,东部地区则相反,这一差异表明新型城镇化改革向中西部倾斜的政策举措有利于缩小城乡差距。

国家行政区划调整下的城市多中心发展——城市空间转型的政策启示

Polycentric urban development has profound impacts on urban development worldwide.Most studies have identified its complex drivers of social economy and natural condition while ignoring the state-led policy factors.In recent years,China has undergone dramatic administrative division adjustment(ADA)during the process of unique state-led urbanization.However,as a crucial government strategy,the impacts of ADA on urban polycentricity remain unclear.This research investigates the relationship between ADA and urban polycentricity through spatial difference-in-differences models.The results reveal that ADA has contributed to the polycentric urban development in China.Specifically,boundary restructuring has more substantial impacts than hierarchy reorganization.In addition,ADA has significantly promoted urban polycentricity in local cities in central China and neighbouring cities in eastern China,while it has no significant effects in western China.Furthermore,ADA reshapes urban polycentricity mainly by the influencing mechanism of construction land and industrial structure.Policymakers should consider the various ADA’s impacts on urban polycentricity with socio-economic conditions.This research provides a deeper insight into urban spatial transformation with state-led drivers.

Green Finance and Green Innovation of Enterprises

Against the backdrop of the carbon neutrality strategy,the key issue remains how green finance can boost enterprise green innovation and social transformation.The paper introduces the policy of Pilot Zones forGreen FinanceReform and Innovations("the PZGFRI Policy")announced in 2017 as a quasi-natural experiment and probes into whether green finance has a significant impact on enterprise green innovation as well as its mechanism based on the green patent data of China's A-share listed companies in the Shanghai Stock Exchange and the Shenzhen Stock Exchange from 2012 to 2019.The paper reaches the conclusion that the PZGFRI Policy has significantly promoted the green innovation of enterprises.In terms of heterogeneity of enterprise characteristics,it generates greater impacts on non-polluting firms,large-scale enterprises,and state-owned companies.For the heterogeneity of the financial environment,the PZGFRI Policy provides more benefits for those in regions with less competitive banks.As for the mechanism,green finance advances enterprise green innovation by increasing the proportion of long-term loans of enterprises and improving their debt structure.However,evidence related to financing cost channels has not yet been found.Continued improvement of the green financial system is preferred.Further,green finance should be encouraged to play an important role in the green transformation of society,the realization of carbon neutrality goals,and long-term ecological conservation.

财政协同金融促进企业科技创新模式的效果差异研究

本文通过筛选出科创板的573家科技型企业,并选取了2011~2021年的企业财务、政府引导基金投资、宏观经济等数据,运用固定效应模型和多期DID模型,不仅对融资约束的中介效应进行了分析,还比较了财政协同金融两种模式对处不同成长时期企业和不同地区企业技术创新的促进效果。研究结果表明,财政协同金融的信贷模式和投资模式通过缓解融资约束促进了企业技术创新。投资模式对促进处于成长初期的企业创新效果更好,信贷模式对促进处于成长稳定期的企业创新效果更好。投资模式和信贷模式对东部地区的企业创新都有显著促进作用,中部地区更多依赖于投资模式,西部地区则更多依赖于信贷模式。为此,一方面应提高财政协同金融两种模式的相互配合;另一方面,西部地区应发展完善科技金融服务体系,提升投资模式的促进作用。

因子结构下的新型多期投资组合选择模型

首次将因子模型与多期均值-方差模型相结合,建立了单因子结构下的新型多期均值-方差模型,并且利用二次规划方法得到了此模型的解析最优投资策略.为使这一结论具有普适性,又将它推广到了多因子模型情形,并且得到了与单因子模型下类似的结论.最后,通过数值算例验证了本文的理论结果.新模型确定最优投资策略的方法,是一个科学且可操作性强的方法.