Quantitative method for evaluating detailed volatility of wind power at multiple temporal-spatial scales

With the increasing proportion of wind power integration, the volatility of wind power brings huge challenges to the safe and stable operation of the electric power system. At present, the indexes commonly used to evaluate the volatility of wind power only consider its overall characteristics, such as the standard deviation of wind power, the average of power variables, etc., while ignoring the detailed volatility of wind power, that is, the features of the frequency distribution of power variables. However, how to accurately describe the detailed volatility of wind power is the key foundation to reduce its adverse influences. To address this, a quantitative method for evaluating the detailed volatility of wind power at multiple temporal-spatial scales is proposed. First, the volatility indexes which can evaluate the detailed fluctuation characteristics of wind power are presented, including the upper confidence limit, lower confidence limit and confidence interval of power variables under the certain confidence level. Then, the actual wind power data from a location in northern China is used to illustrate the application of the proposed indexes at multiple temporal(year–season–month–day) and spatial scales(wind turbine–wind turbines–wind farm–wind farms) using the calculation time windows of 10 min, 30 min, 1 h, and 4 h. Finally, the relationships between wind power forecasting accuracy and its corresponding detailed volatility are analyzed to further verify the effectiveness of the proposed indexes. The results show that the proposed volatility indexes can effectively characterize the detailed fluctuations of wind power at multiple temporal-spatial scales. It is anticipated that the results of this study will serve as an important reference for the reserve capacity planning and optimization dispatch in the electric power system which with a high proportion of renewable energy.

Determination of the natural frequencies of axially moving beams by the method of multiple scales

The natural frequencies of an axially moving beam were determined by using the method of multiple scales. The method of second-order multiple scales could be directly applied to the governing equation if the axial motion of the beam is assumed to be small. It can be concluded that the natural frequencies affected by the axial motion are proportional to the square of the velocity of the axially moving beam. The results obtained by the perturbation method were compared with those given with a numerical method and the comparison shows the correctness of the multiple-scale method if the velocity is rather small.

An optimal strategy for coordinating and dispatching “source-load” in power system based on multiple time scales

Due to the phenomenon of abandoning wind power and photo voltage(PV)power in the“Three Northern Areas”in China,this paper presents an optimal strategy for coordinating and dispatching“source-load”in power system based on multiple time scales.On the basis of the analysis of the uncertainty of wind power and PV power as well as the characteristics of load side resource dispatching,the optimal model of coordinating and dispatching“source-load”in power system based on multiple time scales is established.It can simultaneously and effectively dispatch conventional generators,wind plant,PV power station,pumped-storage power station and load side resources by optimally using three time scales:day-ahead,intra-day and real-time.According to the latest predicted information of wind power,PV power and load,the original generation schedule can be rolled and amended by using the corresponding time scale.The effectiveness of the model can be verified by a real system.The simulation results show that the proposed model can make full use of“source-load”resources to improve the ability to consume wind power and PV power of the grid-connected system.

Advanced characterization and calculation methods for rechargeable battery materials in multiple scales

The structure-activity relationship of functional materials is an everlasting and desirable research question for material science researchers,where characterization and calculation tools are the keys to deciphering this intricate relationship.Here,we choose rechargeable battery materials as an example and introduce the most representative advanced characterization and calculation methods in four different scales:real space,energy,momentum space,and time.Current research methods to study battery material structure,energy level transition,dispersion relations of phonons and electrons,and time-resolved evolution are reviewed.From different views,various expression forms of structure and electronic structure are presented to understand the reaction processes and electrochemical mechanisms comprehensively in battery systems.According to the summary of the present battery research,the challenges and perspectives of advanced characterization and calculation techniques for the field of rechargeable batteries are further discussed.

APPLICATION OF THE MODIFIED METHOD OF MULTIPLE SCALES TO THE BENDING PROBLEMS FOR CIRCULAR THIN PLATE AT VERY LARGE DEFLECTION AND THE ASYMPTOTICS OF SOLUTIONS(Ⅱ)

This paper is a continuation of part (Ⅰ), on the asymptotics behaviors of the series solutions investigated in (Ⅰ). The remainder terms of the series solutions are estimated by the maximum norm.

THE METHOD OF MULTIPLE SCALES APPLIED TO THE NONLINEAR STABILITY PROBLEM OF A TRUNCATED SHALLOW SPHERICAL SHELL OF VARIABLE THICKNESS WITH THE LARGE GEOMETRICAL PARAMETER

Using the modified method of multiple scales, the nonlinear stability of a truncated shallow spherical shell of variable thickness with a nondeformable rigid body at the center under compound loads is investigated. When the geometrical parameter k is larger, the uniformly valid asymptotic solutions of this problem are obtained and the remainder terms are estimated.

APPLICATION OF THE MODIFIED METHOD OF MULTIPLE SCALES TO THE BENDING PROBLEMS FOR CIRCULAR THIN PLATE AT VERY LARGE DEFLECTION ANDTHE ASYMPTOTICS OF SOLUTIONS (Ⅰ)

In this paper, the modified method of multiple scales is applied to study the bending problems for circular thin plate with large deflection under the hinged and simply supported edge conditions. Theseries solutions are constructed, the boundary layer effects are analysed and their asymptotics are proved.

COMPUTER COMPUTATION OF THE METHOD OF MULTIPLE SCALES-DIRICHLET PROBLEM FOR A CLASS OF SYSTEM OF NONLINEAR DIFFERENTIAL EQUATIONS

The method of boundary layer with multiple scales and computer algebra were applied to study the asymptotic behavior of solution of boundary value problems for a class of system of nonlinear differential equations . The asymptotic expansions of solution were constructed. The remainders were estimated. And an example was analysed. It provides a new foreground for the application of the method of boundary layer with multiple scales .

Multiple time scales of fluvial processes—theory and applications

Fluvial processes comprise water flow,sediment transport and bed evolution,which normally feature distinct time scales.The time scales of sediment transport and bed deformation relative to the flow essentially measure how fast sediment transport adapts to capacity region in line with local flow scenario and the bed deforms in comparison with the flow,which literally dictates if a capacity based and/or decoupled model is justified.This paper synthesizes the recently developed multiscale theory for sediment-laden flows over erodible bed,with bed load and suspended load transport,respectively.It is unravelled that bed load transport can adapt to capacity sufficiently rapidly even under highly unsteady flows and thus a capacity model is mostly applicable,whereas a non-capacity model is critical for suspended sediment because of the lower rate of adaptation to capacity.Physically coupled modelling is critical for fluvial processes characterized by rapid bed variation.Applications are outlined on very active bed load sediment transported by flash floods and landslide dam break floods.

Free vibration of vibrating device coupling two pendulums using multiple time scales method

A model of vibrating device coupling two pendulums (VDP) which is highly nonlinear was put forward to conduct vibration analysis. Based on energy analysis, dynamic equations with cubic nonlinearities were established using Lagrange's equation. In order to obtain approximate solution, multiple time scales method, one of perturbation technique, was applied. Cases of non-resonant and 1:1:2:2 internal resonant were discussed. In the non-resonant case, the validity of multiple time scales method is confirmed, comparing numerical results derived from fourth order Runge-Kutta method with analytical results derived from first order approximate expression. In the 1:1:2:2 internal resonant case, modal amplitudes of Aa1 and Ab2 increase, respectively, from 0.38 to 0.63 and from 0.19 to 0.32, while the corresponding frequencies have an increase of almost 1.6 times with changes of initial conditions, indicating the existence of typical nonlinear phenomenon. In addition, the chaotic motion is found under this condition.

Outcome assessment of stroke convalescence using multiple scales based on different dimensions

BACKGROUND: Convalescence is an important stage of stroke treatment. A lot of patients have somatic and mental disorders at various degrees. The primary standard can only reflect partial conditions of somatic disorder; in addition, multiple dimensions of patients at the phase of stroke convalescence are further observed by using a lot of standards, such as signs and symptoms of traditional Chinese medicine, daily activity and psychological status. OBJECTIVE: To analyze the outcome assessments of the cases of stroke convalescence measured with different criteria consisting of various dimensions by a cross-sectional investigation of the condition of stroke convalescent patients. DESIGN: Scale evaluation. SETTING: Departments of Clinical Epidemiology Exploratory Development and Neurology, the Second Affiliated Hospital of Guangzhou University of Traditional Chinese Medicine; National Center for Training of Design, Measurement and Evaluation in Clinical Research,Guangzhou University of Traditional Chinese Medicine. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 194 stroke convalescent patients treated in the Second Affiliated Hospital of Guangzhou University of Traditional Chinese Medicine from July 26, 2000 to February 28, 2001 were taken as subjects of the study. There were 126 males and 68 females aged from 40 to 89 years, and the illness course ranged from 14 to 181 days. All patients met diagnosis-treatment criteria of stroke (the second version)[DTCS(V2.0)] and various kinds of diagnostic points of cerebrovascular diseases; moreover, all patients provided confirmed consents. METHODS: They were assessed by assessment methods including the following assessment instruments: DTCS(V2.0), self-designed scale of traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) symptoms (28 symptoms and physical signs were scored as 0, 1, 2 marks from none to severity), modified Edinburgh-Scandinavia stroke scale (a total of 45 marks, 0 to 15 marks as mild defect, 16 to 30 as moderate defect, 31 to 45 as severe defect), modified Barthel activities of daily life (ADL) index (a total of 100 marks, less than 60 marks as unable self-care), vitality and mental health (subscales derived from Health Survey Questionnaire, SF-36). The collected data from scales and inter-scale correlation were processed by the statistic methods mainly including descriptive analysis, Spearmen correlation analysis, factor analysis, etc. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: ① Average scores of scales and criteria; ② correlation between modified Edinburgh-Scandinavia stroke scale and other scales. RESULTS: All of the patients completed the assessment, and analyzed in the final analysis. ① The average scores of the scales and criteria: The average scores of DTCS(V2.0), self-designed scale of TCM symptoms, modified Edinburgh-Scandinavia stroke scale, modified Barthel ADL index, vitality and mental health scales were 6.51±6.29, 13.73±6.97, 7.56±7.35, 63.58±23.68, 52.79±23.32 and 62.83±22.75 respectively. ② Correlation between modified Edinburgh-Scandinavia stroke scale and other scales: The Spearman correlation coefficients (R ’) of modified Edinburgh-Scandinavia stroke scale with diagnosis-treatment criteria of stroke, scales of TCM symptoms, modified Barthel ADL index, vitality scale and mental health scale were 20.885, 0.302, -0.824, -0.294 and -0.258 respectively. CONCLUSION: The modified Edinburgh-Scandinavia stroke scale and DTCS(V2.0) shared the same assessment dimension, so they can be mutually alternated in some clinical practices. Discrepancy in measurements of health status was gained due to the diverse dimensions applied in outcome assessments. It is necessary to build up a multi-dimensional assessment criteria system, such as signs and symptoms, daily activities and psychological status, for assessing the stroke convalescent cases in a more comprehensive scope and reflecting the efficacy of TCM treatment scientifically.

Multiple Time Scale Analysis of River Runoff Using Wavelet Transform for Dagujia River Basin, Yantai, China

Based on monthly river runoff and meteorological data, a method of Morlet wavelet transform was used to analyze the multiple time scale characteristics of river runoff in the Dagujia River Basin, Yantai City, Shandong Province. The results showed that the total annual river runoffin the Dagujia River Basin decreased significantly from 1966 to 2004, and the rate of decrease was 48× 10^6ma/10yr, which was higher than the mean value of most rivers in China. Multiple time scale characteristics existed, which accounted for different aspects of the changes in annual river runoff, and the major periods of the runofftime series were identified as about 28 years, 14 years and 4 years with decreasing levels of fluctuation. The river runoff evolution process was controlled by changes in precipitation to a certain extent, but it was also greatly influenced by human activities. Also, for different time periods and scales, the impacts of climate changes and human activities on annual river runoff evolution occurred at the same time. Changes in the annual river runoffwere mainly associated with climate change before the 1980s and with human activities after 1981.

Towards a Unified Single Analysis Framework Embedded with Multiple Spatial and Time Discretized Methods for Linear Structural Dynamics

We propose a novel computational framework that is capable of employing different time integration algorithms and different space discretized methods such as the Finite Element Method,particle methods,and other spatial methods on a single body sub-dividedintomultiple subdomains.This is in conjunctionwithimplementing thewell known Generalized Single Step Single Solve(GS4)family of algorithms which encompass the entire scope of Linear Multistep algorithms that have been developed over the past 50 years or so and are second order accurate into the Differential Algebraic Equation framework.In the current state of technology,the coupling of altogether different time integration algorithms has been limited to the same family of algorithms such as theNewmarkmethods and the coupling of different algorithms usually has resulted in reduced accuracy in one or more variables including the Lagrange multiplier.However,the robustness and versatility of the GS4 with its ability to accurately account for the numerical shifts in various time schemes it encompasses,overcomes such barriers and allows a wide variety of arbitrary implicit-implicit,implicit-explicit,and explicit-explicit pairing of the various time schemes while maintaining the second order accuracy in time for not only all primary variables such as displacement,velocity and acceleration but also the Lagrange multipliers used for coupling the subdomains.By selecting an appropriate spatialmethod and time scheme on the area with localized phenomena contrary to utilizing a single process on the entire body,the proposed work has the potential to better capture the physics of a given simulation.The method is validated by solving 2D problems for the linear second order systems with various combination of spatial methods and time schemes with great flexibility.The accuracy and efficacy of the present work have not yet been seen in the current field,and it has shown significant promise in its capabilities and effectiveness for general linear dynamics through numerical examples.

Multiple scales method for analyzing a forced damped rotational pendulum oscillatorwithgallows

This study reports the analytical solution for a generalized rotational pendulum system with gallows and periodic excited forces.The multiple scales method(MSM)is applied to solve the proposed problem.Several types of rotational pendulum oscillators are studied and talked about in detail.These include the forced damped rotating pendulum oscillator with gallows,the damped standard simple pendulum oscillator,and the damped rotating pendulum oscillator without gallows.The MSM first-order approximations for all the cases mentioned are derived in detail.The obtained results are illustrated with concrete numerical examples.The first-order MSM approximations are compared to the fourth-order Runge-Kutta(RK4)numerical approximations.Additionally,the maximum error is estimated for the first-order approximations obtained through the MSM,compared to the numerical approximations obtained by the RK4 method.Furthermore,we conducted a comparative analysis of the outcomes obtained by the used method(MSM)and He-MSM to ascertain their respective levels of precision.The proposed method can be applied to analyze many strong nonlinear oscillatory equations.

Multi-Time Scale Operation and Simulation Strategy of the Park Based on Model Predictive Control

Due to the impact of source-load prediction power errors and uncertainties,the actual operation of the park will have a wide range of fluctuations compared with the expected state,resulting in its inability to achieve the expected economy.This paper constructs an operating simulation model of the park power grid operation considering demand response and proposes a multi-time scale operating simulation method that combines day-ahead optimization and model predictive control(MPC).In the day-ahead stage,an operating simulation plan that comprehensively considers the user’s side comfort and operating costs is proposed with a long-term time scale of 15 min.In order to cope with power fluctuations of photovoltaic,wind turbine and conventional load,MPC is used to track and roll correct the day-ahead operating simulation plan in the intra-day stage to meet the actual operating operation status of the park.Finally,the validity and economy of the operating simulation strategy are verified through the analysis of arithmetic examples.

MULTIPLE TIME SCALE ANALYSIS OF CLIMATE VARIATION IN Macao DURING THE LAST 100 YEARS

The multiple time scale climate changes are studied and calculated with statistical analysis and wavelet transformation on the basis of daily series of observed data over the period 1901-2007 in Macao.The result shows that statistically significant oscillations with 2 to 5 years of period generally exist in the series of climate variables(e.g.annual mean surface air temperature and precipitation as well as evaporation etc.),but with obvious locality in time domain.The variation of annual mean surface air temperature has a quasi 60-year period.The phases of the 60-year variation approximately and consistently match that of Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation(AMO).The oscillations of seasonal mean surface air temperature in summer and winter have the periods of quasi 30-year and quasi 60-year,respectively.These two periods of oscillations have statistically significant correlation with Pacific decadal oscillation(PDO) and AMO,individually.The multidecadal variations of the precipitation of the annually first flood period and annual evaporation are dominated by periods of quasi 30-year and quasi 50-year,respectively.

Analysis of the Invariance and Generalizability of Multiple Linear Regression Model Results Obtained from Maslach Burnout Scale through Jackknife Method

The purpose of this study was to examine the burnout levels of research assistants in Ondokuz Mayis University and to examine the results of multiple linear regression model based on the results obtained from Maslach Burnout Scale with Jackknife Method in terms of validity and generalizability. To do this, a questionnaire was given to 11 research assistants working at Ondokuz Mayis University and the burnout scores of this questionnaire were taken as the dependent variable of the multiple linear regression model. The variable of burnout was explained with the variables of age, weekly hours of classes taught, monthly average credit card debt, numbers of published articles and reports, gender, marital status, number of children and the departments of the research assistants. Dummy variables were assigned to the variables of gender, marital status, number of children and the departments of the research assistants and thus, they were made quantitative. The significance of the model as a result of multiple linear regressions was examined through backward elimination method. After this, for the five explanatory variables which influenced the variable of burnout, standardized model coefficients and coefficients of determination, and 95% confidence intervals of these values were estimated through Jackknife Method and the generalizability of the parameter estimation results of these variables on population was researched.

Modified Multiple Scale/Segment Entropy （MMPE） Analysis of Heart Rate Variability of NHH, CHF ＆ AF Subjects

Nonlinear analysis of heart rate variability （HRV） has become important as heart behaves as a complex system. In this work, the approximate entropy （ApEn） has been used as a nonlinear measure. A new concept of estimating the ApEn in different segments of long length of the recorded data called modified multiple scale （segment） entropy （MMPE） is introduced. The idea of estimating the approximate entropy in different segments is useful to detect the nonlinear dynamics of the heart present in the entire length of data. The present work has been carried out for three cases namely the normal healthy heart （NHH） data, congestive heart failure （CHF） data and Atrial fibrillation （AF） data and the data are analyzed using MMPE techniques. It is observed that the mean value of ApEn for NHH data is much higher than the mean values for CHF data and AF data. The ApEn profiles of CHF, AF and NHH data for different segments obtained using MPE profiles measures the heart dynamism for the three different cases. Also the power spectral density is obtained using fast fourier transform （FFT） analysis and the ratio of LF/HF （low frequency/high frequency） power are computed on multiple scales/segments namely MPLH （multiple scale low frequency to high frequency） for the NHH data, CHF data and AF data and analyzed using MPLH techniques. The results are presented and discussed in the paper.

A NON-ISOTROPIC MULTIPLE-SCALE TURBULENCE MODEL

This paper describes a newly developednon-isotropic multiple-scale turbulence model (MS/ASM) for complex flow calculations. This model focuses on the direct modeling of Reynolds stresses and utilizes split-spectrum concepts to model multiple-scale effects in turbulence. Validation studies on free shear flows, rotating flows and recirculating flows show that the current model performs significantly better than the single-scale k-e model. The present model is relatively inexpensive in terms of CPU time which makes in suitable for broad engineering flow applications.