The housing loss assessment of rural villages caused by earthquake disaster in Yunnan Province

Based on the assessment report of destructive housings caused by more than 20 earthquakes occurred in Yunnan Province in 1990~2004, the vulnerability models of 4 types housings of rural residents in Yunnan Province are setup. The scenario earthquake disaster loss model is used to simulate the housing loss if the historical earthquakes that occurred since A.D. 886 in Yunnan Province reoccur in 2002. The analyses show the simulation deviation of the usual earthquakes is less than 30% and the method is of high practicality. Meanwhile, the simulation result of 398 historical earthquakes in Yunnan Province shows that the annual economic loss caused by the earthquakes is about RMB 410 million Yuan that accounts for 0.18% of GDP of Yunnan Province for the year. Because the per capita living area and the price of the housing increases year by year, if the historical destructive earthquake reoc- curs today, the loss of Yunnan Province will be greater than in those years.

COMMUNAL VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT FOR NATURAL DISASTERS

An integral part of risk assessment for natural hazards, communal vulnerability assessment (CVA) is now receiving considerable attention, with the on-going International Decade of Natural Disaster Reduction (IDNDR). This article expounds the definition of the CVA concept and its implication. In addition, it offers a brief discussion of the reasons why CVA has been neglected and its relationship with socio-economic and physical vulnerability assessment. The article also gives an explorative exposition of the methodology and application of communal vulnerability analysis in risk reduction.

Economically Challenged Women in Disaster Risk Management: Toward a Resilient Filipino Community

The social and cultural norms shape gender roles which sometimes deprive women of the opportunity to prepare for natural calamities. But the disastrous effect of natural disasters spares no one. It knows no gender. Most of the time, women more than men bear the worse of consequences. The study measures and describes the impact of disaster preparedness sessions on the perception of economically challenged women in Philippines. By using a mixed qualitative and quantitative research method the study found that: 1) the majority of women participants are willing to undergo training in disaster preparedness;2) their awareness in disaster preparedness improved from “basic” to “high” level;3) their level of action in disaster preparedness is still on the “planning stage” and;4) the program effectively changed their attitude towards disaster preparedness and mitigation. The study provided insights on the potential of women in disaster preparedness toward a disaster resilient Filipino community.

A dataset of agro-meteorological disasteraffected area and grain loss in China(1949–2015)

As a big agricultural country,the People’s Republic of China has experienced a series of natural disasters since its founding,such as the 1959–1961 Great Famine,the 1998 floods and the 2008 snowstorm.Here we present a dataset summarizing four categories of meteorological disasteraffected area at provincial level in China from 1949 to 2015:mildly-affected area,moderately-affected area,heavily-affected area,and total affected area.Based on crop-planting data and natural disaster data,grain losses are also evaluated by using a grain loss assessment model.The dataset plays an important role in the future prediction,prevention,and reduction of agrometeorological disasters.

Areas vulnerable to natural disasters and damage estimation of infrastructure in Busan, Korea

Since the damages caused by disasters associated with climate anomalies and the diversification of the social structure increase every year, an efficient management system associated with a damage assessment of the areas vulnerable to disasters is demanded to prevent or mitigate the damages to infrastructure. The areas vulnerable to disasters in Busan, located at southeastern part of Korea, were estimated based on historical records of damages and a risk assessment of the infrastructure was performed to provide fundamental information prior to the establishment of the real-time monitoring system for infrastructure and establish disaster management system. The results are illustrated by using geographical information system(GIS) and provide the importance of the roadmap for comprehensive and specific strategy to manage natural disasters.

Study on evaluation of cities' ability reducing earthquake disasters

Cities ability reducing earthquake disasters is a complex system involving numerous factors, moreover the re-search on evaluating cities ability reducing earthquake disasters relates to multi-subject, such as earthquake sci-ence, social science, economical science and so on. In this paper, firstly, the conception of cities ability reducing earthquake disasters is presented, and the ability could be evaluated with three basic elements the possible seis-mic casualty and economic loss during the future earthquakes that are likely to occur in the city and its surround-ings and time required for recovery after earthquake; based upon these three basic elements, a framework, which consists of six main components, for evaluating citys ability reducing earthquake disasters is proposed; then the statistical relations between the index system and the ratio of seismic casualty, the ratio of economic loss and re-covery time are gained utilizing the cities prediction results of earthquake disasters which were made during the ninth five-year plan; at last, the method defining the comprehensive index of cities ability reducing earthquake disasters is presented. Thus the relatively comprehensive theory frame is set up. The frame can evaluate cities ability reducing earthquake disasters absolutely and quantitatively and consequently instruct the decision-making on reducing cities earthquake disasters loss.

Assessment of Economic Damage Risks from Typhoon Disasters in Guangdong, China

Guangdong is a developed province in China, but suffers from frequent typhoon disasters which cause great economic loss. Quantitative regional risk assessment of typhoon disasters is important for disaster prevention and mitigation. According to direct economic loss and typhoon intensity information, we established a typhoon disaster loss rate curve using data from 1954 to 2008. Based on GIS spatial module, the economic vulnerabilities of different intensity typhoons were calculated for 98 counties in Guangdong Province. Different intensity typhoon landing frequencies in Guangdong were also calculated, and used to indicate typhoon disaster probability. A risk assessment model was established to assess economic loss risk under different intensity typhoons in Guangdong. The results show that economic loss risk caused by typhoon is more than 10 thousand million CNY; according to typhoon intensity grade, economic risk is up to 10.467, 14.429, 7.753 and 13.591 thousand million CNY for slight, light, medium and severe typhoons, respectively. The Pearl River Delta is the highest risk region, especially Guangzhou, Dongguan, Shenzhen, Zhongshan and Zhuhai. Risk value decreases from Pearl River coastal outfall to the inland in a radial pattern. Inland areas far from coastal counties have lower risk, and the risk value is less than 50 million CNY. When typhoon intensity increases from slight to medium, the risk in western is higher than in eastern parts, but when typhoons become to severe, the risk value in eastern Guangdong part is higher than in the west.

The Theory and Method on Assessment of Economic Loss of Disaster

Based on the characteristic of natural disaster, this paper studies the classification of thedisaster loss. Then it mainly discusses the assessment method of economic loss of natural disaster.

A Physics‑Based Seismic Risk Assessment of the Qujiang Fault:From Dynamic Rupture to Disaster Estimation

This study achieved the construction of earthquake disaster scenarios based on physics-based methods-from fault dynamic rupture to seismic wave propagation-and then population and economic loss estimations.The physics-based dynamic rupture and strong ground motion simulations can fully consider the three-dimensional complexity of physical parameters such as fault geometry,stress field,rock properties,and terrain.Quantitative analysis of multiple seismic disaster scenarios along the Qujiang Fault in western Yunnan Province in southwestern China based on different nucleation locations was achieved.The results indicate that the northwestern segment of the Qujiang Fault is expected to experience significantly higher levels of damage compared to the southeastern segment.Additionally,there are significant variations in human losses,even though the economic losses are similar across different scenarios.Dali Bai Autonomous Prefecture,Chuxiong Yi Autonomous Prefecture,Yuxi City,Honghe Hani and Yi Autonomous Prefecture,and Wenshan Zhuang and Miao Autonomous Prefecture were identified as at medium to high seismic risks,with Yuxi and Honghe being particularly vulnerable.Implementing targeted earthquake prevention measures in Yuxi and Honghe will significantly mitigate the potential risks posed by the Qujiang Fault.Notably,although the fault is within Yuxi,Honghe is likely to suffer the most severe damage.These findings emphasize the importance of considering rupture directivity and its influence on ground motion distribution when assessing seismic risk.

A Novel Methodological Approach to Estimate the Impact of Natural Hazard-Induced Disasters on Country/Region-Level Economic Growth

With the increased frequency of extreme weather events and large-scale disasters, extensive societal and economic losses incur every year due to damage of infrastructure and private properties, business disruptions,fatalities, homelessness, and severe health-related issues. In this article, we analyze the economic and disaster data from1970 through 2010 to investigate the impact of disasters on country/region-level economic growth. We leveraged a random parameter modeling approach to develop the growth-econometrics model that identifies risk factors significantly influencing the country/region-level economic growth in the face of natural hazard-induced disasters,while controlling for country/region-and time-specific unobserved heterogeneities. We found that disaster intensity in terms of fatalities and homelessness, and economic characteristics such as openness to trade and a government's consumption share of purchasing power parity(PPP), are the significant risk factors that randomly vary for different countries/regions. Other significant factors found to be significant include population, real gross domestic product(GDP), and investment share of PPP converted GDP per capita. We also found that flood is the most devastating disaster to affect country/region-level economic growth. This growth-econometrics model will help in the policy and decision making of governmentsrelated to the investment needs for pre-and post-disaster risk mitigation and response planning strategies, to better protect nations and minimize disaster-induced economic impacts.

Risk assessment of large-scale winter sports sites in the context of a natural disaster

Accidents induced by natural disasters at sports sites may cause catastrophic loss of great concern.However,previous studies on risk assessments of sports sites have only focused on operational risk and equipment failure.With the frequent occurrence of extreme disasters,the risk of domino chains caused by natural disasters at large-scale events,such as large-scale winter sports sites,cannot be ignored.In this study,a natural disaster-induced accident-chain evolution analysis model(NAEA model)is proposed.Based on the results of the NAEA model,a fuzzy Bayesian network for domino accidents triggered by an earthquake at large-scale winter sports sites was established.Through sensitivity analysis and scenario analysis,it was found that fire and explosion accidents and crowded stampede accidents are the main causes of serious loss in domino disaster chains in large-scale sports sites.Simultaneously,improving the early warning capability,reliability of electrical equipment,and automatic sprinkler systems are the most effective ways to prevent and control major accidents.In addition,an optimal safety strategy improvement analysis was performed to facilitate the decision-making of safety managers to prevent serious accidents and reduce accident loss.

考虑时间变化的洪涝灾害损失评估

洪涝灾害是对我国影响最大的自然灾害之一。聚焦灾害损失评估问题,本文构建了考虑时间变化的洪涝灾害损失函数。一方面,表征灾害损失随着致灾因子强度先递增、而后增幅趋缓的静态S型曲线关系;另一方面,通过量级、形状和位置三个参数综合考虑灾害损失随时间的动态变化情况。基于《中国水旱灾害防御公报》提供的受灾人口、直接经济损失数据,对于各省级行政区2006—2021年洪涝灾害损失进行评估分析。结果表明:通过拟合洪涝灾害损失函数,洪涝灾害损失关于致灾因子强度和时间的三维空间散点图可有效地拓展成为连续的三维空间曲面及二维空间热力图。各省级行政区受灾人口整体上呈现出逐年下降的特征,但随致灾因子强度的增加而趋于增加。各省级行政区直接经济损失则表现出明显的差异,随时间呈现出大幅下降、缓慢下降和略有增加等不同特征。考虑时间变化的洪涝灾害损失函数是变化环境下灾害评估的有效工具,可为区域洪涝灾情评估提供借鉴和参考。

1949—2021年我国成灾地震及其损失的时空特征

为了解地震致灾规律,有效制定防灾减灾规划,进一步减轻地震灾害损失,收集整理了1949—2021年我国及周边地区震级不小于5.0级的成灾地震及其灾害损失数据,从时间、空间两方面研究了他们的分布特征,研究结果表明:453次成灾地震共造成死亡约35万人,受伤约76万人,直接经济损失约11249亿元(折算值),其中重大地震灾害造成的灾害损失占比巨大。随着时间推移,年份上存在明显的地震多发年和少发年,年代上成灾地震次数有所增加,地震造成的经济损失加速增长,死亡人数、受伤人数有不同程度的减少。从地域上看,胡焕庸线西侧成灾地震发生频次高但平均损失小;经济分区中,西部地区成灾地震发生频次最高而平均损失最小,东部地区成灾地震次数次之但平均损失最高,中部和东北部地区成灾地震次数最少,灾害损失中等;云南省和四川省成灾地震次数最多,地震灾害损失最严重。同时期地震强度相近的成灾地震,发生在经济发达、人口密度高的区域的人员伤亡和经济损失更为严重。2000年以后小震大灾事件频次增加,多发生在胡焕庸线东侧及经济分区中的东部、中部地区,小震造成的大灾现象由原来的人员伤亡多转向经济损失大。

HEALTH IMPACT ASSESSMENTS A Tool for Designing Climate Change Resilience into Green Building and Planning Projects

INTRODUCTION Historical records have documented considerable changes to the global climate,with significant health,economic,and environmental consequences.Climate projections predict more intense hurricanes;increased sea level rise;and more frequent and more intense natural disasters such as heat waves,heavy rainfall,and drought in the future(1;2).The coast along the Gulf of Mexico is particularly vulnerable to many of these environmental hazards and at particular risk when several strike simultaneously-such as a hurricane disrupting electricity transmission during a heat wave.

基于累积置信规则库推理的台风灾害直接经济损失预测

针对台风灾害直接经济损失预测问题,现有的解决方法大多是基于时间序列或评估数据的预测模型,忽略了在建模过程中对历史数据的应用和模型的可解释性。鉴于此,该文将扩展置信规则库模型(EBRB)应用于台风灾害直接经济损失预测,并针对可能存在规则过量和组合爆炸问题,提出基于聚类方法与证据推理(ER)相结合的累积置信规则库(C-BRB)台风灾害经济损失预测模型。最后基于收集到的台风灾害数据进行直接经济损失预测,并通过与已有研究成果进行比较,验证基于C-BRB的台风灾害直接经济损失预测模型的有效性和可行性。

1999—2018年广东省自然灾害灾情时空变化特征及影响因素研究

为科学评估广东省自然灾害灾情时空演化特征,以1999—2018年广东省自然灾害损失基本数据为基础,利用CRITIC权重法构建综合灾情指数模型,同时,利用地理探测器从多因子角度对广东省自然灾害灾情从时间、空间上开展研究,探究其变化规律和影响因素。结果表明:时间上,总体灾情具有指数波动剧烈、大小灾年交替、不同维度线性趋势不一致等特点;空间上,空间分异程度较大,综合灾情指数城市分布为边缘高—中间低的格局,无明显集中趋势。地理探测器中的因子探测分析对灾情大小的影响,极端气象因子起直接作用,地形地表因子起间接作用,基础建设因子起助推作用,防灾减灾因子起缓冲作用;交互探测分析发现,地势起伏度、人均绿地公园面积、经济发达程度在与其他各因子共同作用时对广东省灾情影响作用较大。

自然灾害对城市经济增长的影响研究:以洪涝灾害为例

党的二十届三中全会强调,提高防灾减灾救灾能力,推进国家安全体系和能力现代化。基于“防灾责任主体”视角,构建了洪涝灾害影响经济增长的理论模型,在此基础上利用2000-2020年中国城市经济面板数据与气象站逐日数据,以洪涝灾害为例实证考察了自然灾害对城市经济增长的动态影响及其作用机制。研究发现,洪涝灾害强度对城市当年经济增长具有非线性影响,且城市防洪措施越强,经济发展韧性越强。研究结论表明,地方政府在追求经济增长目标的同时,有效地开展自然灾害防范治理工作也是提升城市经济增长的有效途径。

自然灾害人口综合风险评估——以宁波市奉化区为例

为评估自然灾害人口综合风险,加强多灾种风险防范,以人类生命体为承灾体,建立了基于危险性、暴露度、脆弱性和防灾减灾能力的风险评估指标体系,利用改进的CRITIC法确定指标权重。考虑不同灾害间的相关关系,引入风险系数并建立多灾种综合危险性的分析模型。以宁波市奉化区为例,选取了该地区常见的6种自然灾害,评估多灾种人口综合风险。研究结果表明:单灾种的危险性评估结果符合实际,奉化地区主要受台风洪涝灾害影响,岳林街道、锦屏街道、松岙镇和溪口镇的多灾种人口综合风险指数较高。

自然灾害风险评估研究进展

全球气候变化背景下,高频、高强度自然灾害严重制约着经济社会高质量发展,及时开展灾害风险评估对防灾减灾至关重要。为准确把握区域灾害风险隐患,全面提升自然灾害防范能力,本文从灾害风险评估对象、评估方法、评估尺度以及影响灾害风险评估结果的不确定性因素等方面阐述了自然灾害风险评估研究进展,以期为风险评估深入研究提供可行性参考。综合分析表明,现有研究在综合灾害、灾害链以及灾害与其他学科的整合研究中仍存在不足,风险评价指标选取的主观性等因素对评估结果的影响以及动态风险评估方法的研究还有待进一步深入,且灾害评估尚未形成综合研究趋势。因此,应充分考虑灾害形成和传播机理,构建系统性综合灾害风险评估体系;耦合多学科理论技术,丰富灾害风险评估方法,推动灾害数据系统不断完善,实现灾害风险评估动态精细化。