As a kind of clean energy which creates little carbon dioxide, natural gas will play a key role in the process of achieving “Peak Carbon Dioxide Emission” and “Carbon Neutrality”. The Long-range Energy Alternative...As a kind of clean energy which creates little carbon dioxide, natural gas will play a key role in the process of achieving “Peak Carbon Dioxide Emission” and “Carbon Neutrality”. The Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System(LEAP) model was improved by using new parameters including comprehensive energy efficiency and terminal effective energy consumption. The Back Propagation(BP) Neural Network–LEAP model was proposed to predict key data such as total primary energy consumption, energy mix, carbon emissions from energy consumption, and natural gas consumption in China. Moreover, natural gas production in China was forecasted by the production composition method. Finally, based on the forecast results of natural gas supply and demand, suggestions were put forward on the development of China’s natural gas industry under the background of “Dual Carbon Targets”. The research results indicate that under the background of carbon peak and carbon neutrality, China’s primary energy consumption will peak(59.4×10^(8)tce) around 2035, carbon emissions from energy consumption will peak(103.4×10^(8)t) by 2025, and natural gas consumption will peak(6100×10^(8)m^(3)) around 2040, of which the largest increase will be contributed by the power sector and industrial sector. China’s peak natural gas production is about(2800–3400)×10^(8)m^(3), including(2100–2300)×10^(8)m^(3)conventional gas(including tight gas),(600–1050)×10^(8)m^(3)shale gas, and(150–220)×10^(8)m^(3)coalbed methane. Under the background of carbon peak and carbon neutrality, the natural gas consumption and production of China will further increase, showing a great potential of the natural gas industry.展开更多
Natural gas is one of the key energy resources for Turkey due to fact that 32% of annual primary energy supply and 45% of annual electricity production is obtained from natural gas with also common usage of residentia...Natural gas is one of the key energy resources for Turkey due to fact that 32% of annual primary energy supply and 45% of annual electricity production is obtained from natural gas with also common usage of residential and industrial zones. In this study, the supply security of natural gas was taken into consideration with strategic criteria of energy policy with the SWOT （strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats） analysis and the future projection for Turkey. It has been concluded on geopolitics criteria, domestic production and research for resources must be stimulated as high as possible and participation to abroad resources must be implemented.展开更多
Economy growth in China is expected to slow down a little during the I3th Five-Year-Plan period. So will the domestic gas demand and supply market, which may be quite different from that of the 11 th and 12th Five-Yea...Economy growth in China is expected to slow down a little during the I3th Five-Year-Plan period. So will the domestic gas demand and supply market, which may be quite different from that of the 11 th and 12th Five-Year-Plan periods. The paper summarized the state quo of gas supply and demand in the country and analyzed factors that may affect the demand and supply balance in the new period. It is proposed that there will be many uncertainties in achieving supply and demand goals of gas set for tire period, and gas glut is also very possible during the time. To deal with the problem, it is suggested that several measures be taken nationwide： improving utilization of gas in several sectors, straightening and optimizing the pricing mechanism, speeding up construction of infrastructures, implementing relevant policies and boosting up supen^ision and monitor of tire industry.展开更多
基金Supported by Project of Science and Technology of PetroChina (2021DJ17,2021DJ21)。
文摘As a kind of clean energy which creates little carbon dioxide, natural gas will play a key role in the process of achieving “Peak Carbon Dioxide Emission” and “Carbon Neutrality”. The Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System(LEAP) model was improved by using new parameters including comprehensive energy efficiency and terminal effective energy consumption. The Back Propagation(BP) Neural Network–LEAP model was proposed to predict key data such as total primary energy consumption, energy mix, carbon emissions from energy consumption, and natural gas consumption in China. Moreover, natural gas production in China was forecasted by the production composition method. Finally, based on the forecast results of natural gas supply and demand, suggestions were put forward on the development of China’s natural gas industry under the background of “Dual Carbon Targets”. The research results indicate that under the background of carbon peak and carbon neutrality, China’s primary energy consumption will peak(59.4×10^(8)tce) around 2035, carbon emissions from energy consumption will peak(103.4×10^(8)t) by 2025, and natural gas consumption will peak(6100×10^(8)m^(3)) around 2040, of which the largest increase will be contributed by the power sector and industrial sector. China’s peak natural gas production is about(2800–3400)×10^(8)m^(3), including(2100–2300)×10^(8)m^(3)conventional gas(including tight gas),(600–1050)×10^(8)m^(3)shale gas, and(150–220)×10^(8)m^(3)coalbed methane. Under the background of carbon peak and carbon neutrality, the natural gas consumption and production of China will further increase, showing a great potential of the natural gas industry.
文摘Natural gas is one of the key energy resources for Turkey due to fact that 32% of annual primary energy supply and 45% of annual electricity production is obtained from natural gas with also common usage of residential and industrial zones. In this study, the supply security of natural gas was taken into consideration with strategic criteria of energy policy with the SWOT （strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats） analysis and the future projection for Turkey. It has been concluded on geopolitics criteria, domestic production and research for resources must be stimulated as high as possible and participation to abroad resources must be implemented.
文摘Economy growth in China is expected to slow down a little during the I3th Five-Year-Plan period. So will the domestic gas demand and supply market, which may be quite different from that of the 11 th and 12th Five-Year-Plan periods. The paper summarized the state quo of gas supply and demand in the country and analyzed factors that may affect the demand and supply balance in the new period. It is proposed that there will be many uncertainties in achieving supply and demand goals of gas set for tire period, and gas glut is also very possible during the time. To deal with the problem, it is suggested that several measures be taken nationwide： improving utilization of gas in several sectors, straightening and optimizing the pricing mechanism, speeding up construction of infrastructures, implementing relevant policies and boosting up supen^ision and monitor of tire industry.
