Urban natural gas demand and factors analysis in China:Perspectives of price and income elasticities

Urban natural gas is becoming the main sector driving China’s natural gas consumption growth in recent years.This study explores the impacts of urban natural gas price,wage,socioeconomic determinants,and meteorological conditions on urban natural gas demand in China over 2006-2017.Furthermore,this study also analyzes the potential regional heterogeneity and asymmetry in the impacts of gas price and income on China’s urban gas demand.Empirical results reveal that:(1)The increased gas price can significantly reduce the urban gas demand,and the average income level may effectively promote the gas demand,also,a strong switching effect exists between electricity and natural gas in urban China;(2)these impacts are heterogeneous in regions among China,urban natural gas demand is largely affected by the gas price in regions with high-gas-price and by income in regions with low-gas-price;and(3)the impact of gas price on urban gas consumption is consistent in regions with different urban natural gas consumption,while the impact of income is asymmetric.This study further provides several policy implications for improving the urban natural gas industry in China.

How did the price and income elasticities of natural gas demand in China evolve from 1999 to 2015? The role of natural gas price reform

As a cleaner,high-efficiency,and low-carbon fuel,natural gas has been an important fuel resource for China.To achieve a substantial increase in natural gas demand,China has sought to reform its natural gas pricing mechanism.Employing a set of unbalanced panel data for China’s 30 provinces covering 1999-2015,this study aims to estimate the evolving price and income elasticities of natural gas demand and explore the effect of natural gas price reform in China.For this purpose,a series of econometric techniques allowing for cross-sectional dependence and slope homogeneity is utilized.The results suggest that although natural gas demand in China still lacks negative price elasticity,the phenomenon is improving.Moreover,the estimates suggest that natural gas demand in China is indeed becoming increasingly sensitive to income changes.Our estimates also provide strong evidence in favor of the effect of natural gas price reform on the change in price elasticity as the price elasticity decreases in five of the seven regions.In addition,the results indicate large variations in the change in price and income elasticities of natural gas demand across China’s regions.Natural gas demand is becoming more price inelastic in Southwest China and Northwest China,while such demand in North China and East China responds less sensitively to income changes.These findings offer several policy suggestions for the reform of China’s natural gas market at the national and regional levels.

Opportunities and Risks of Natural Gas Investment in China under the Circumstance of Low Oil Prices

After more than 30 years of rapid growth, the Chinese economy has entered the "new normal" of moderately high growth. Due to the effects of multiple factors, the international oil price has remained consistently low. The low oil price has exerted critical effects on international natural gas investment. At the same time, the market-oriented price mechanism of natural gas in China is gradually taking shape; the concept of low carbon development is widely advocated; and the use of natural gas gains popularity in the city. Such factors provide great opportunities for investment in the natural gas market of China, including boiler coal-to-gas transformation, natural gas distributed energy and natural gas vehicles. However, risks also exist, such as the lower competitiveness of natural gas, its excess production capacity and dwindling consumption in some gas consumption industries, an insufficient driving force for facilitating the coal-to-gas transformation of industrial fuel users, reverse substitution of "coal in place of gas" in some enterprises, nontransparent costs of the downstream link of the natural gas price chain, and mismatches and nonsynchronous adjustments in natural gas prices and electricity prices.

An Advanced Approach for Improving the Prediction Accuracy of Natural Gas Price

As one of the most important commodity futures,the price forecasting of natural gas futures is of great signifi-cance for hedging and risk aversion.This paper mainly focuses on natural gas futures pricing which considers seasonalityfluctuations.In order to study this issue,we propose a modified approach called six-factor model,in which the influence of seasonalfluctuations are eliminated in every random factor.Using Monte Carlo method,wefirst assess and comparative analyze thefitting ability of three-factor model and six-factor model for the out of sample data.It is found that six-factor model has better performance than three-factor model and natural gas futures prices is strongly influenced by winter effect.We then apply the proposed model to predict the price of natural gas futures in the year 2019.It is found that natural gas prices have a weak upward trend in the coming year and are relatively volatile in winter.

Strategy for China's Natural Gas Industry in the Low Oil Price Environment

In regard to the continuous decline of international oil prices in recent years, how should China's natural gas industry seize the opportunity brought by this round of energy price declines, and how should we meet the challenges posed to the development of the domestic natural gas industry caused by changes in the international energy pattern? These questions deserve serious consideration. Through analysis on the situation of the domestic and overseas oil and gas market, and in combination with China's 13 th Five-Year Plan for energy development, the article proposes the development strategy in response to the low oil prices, aiming to provide countermeasures and suggestions for the long-term stable development of China's natural gas industry.

Current State and Prospect of China Natural Gas Industry

Natural gas output remained stable growth and reached 130.9 billion cubic meters in 2015, 3% higher than the same period last year. Shale gas saw huge progress. China titus became the third country in the world fu!filling commercial development after U.S. attd Canada. Natural gas import growth and growth rate declined obviously, and the imported pipeline gas and LNG totaled 61.2 billion cubic meters in 2015. Apparent natural gas consumption was 186.5 billion cubic meters in 2015, rising by 4.4% as compared with the same period last year, but it hit a historic low. There is higher dozonward pressure on domestic macro economy in 2016. However, natural gas demand will see more rapid growth, propelled by such favorable factors as gas price regulation and environmental protection policies. It is prospected that natural gas market will take a turn for the better than in 2015, and natural gas supply will still be rich in general in 2016.

Development Status and Prospects of the Natural Gas Industry in China

The year 2017 saw explosive growth in China's natural gas market, and the apparent consumption was 235.7 billion cubic meters, up 18.2% over the same period of 2016. In 2017, China's domestic production growth picked up significantly, reaching 145.3 billion cubic meters, an increase of 9%.Natural gas imports grew rapidly, and imported pipeline gas and imported LNG totaled 91.6 billion cubic meters. The trade volume of LNG surpassed that of pipeline gas for the first time since 2012. In 2018, the macro-economy is expected to maintain growth at a moderate-to-high rate. However, driven by favorable factors such as environmental policies, China's demand for natural gas is expected to continue to grow rapidly, and natural gas consumption will maintain double-digit growth, roughly at 12%. Nevertheless, the seasonable imbalance between natural gas supply and demand will remain conspicuous.

Current Situation and Prospects of the Development of China’s Natural Gas Industry

In 2018,China's natural gas market reached a new level of development,with apparent consumption of 280.3 billion m3,up by 18.1%over the same period in the previous year.Domestic production grew steadily,reaching 157 billion m3,up by 7.2%over the same period in the previous year.Natural gas imports grew rapidly,with imports of pipeline gas and LNG totalling 124.2 billion m3.In terms of trade types,imports of LNG continue to exceed those of pipeline gas.In 2019,there has been downward pressure on the macro economy,and the development of the main gas sector has slowed down.Driven by environmental protection policies,the natural gas market continues to maintain rapid growth.However,it is difficult for the levels of increment and growth to reach those of the previous two years,and the growth rate of market demand is predicted to reach 10.7%.

New Situation of China Natural Gas Industry

China natural gas industry is at a turning point. Growth of mid-long term natural gas consumption may maintain at about 10%, supply is sufficient or even "over-sufficient", natural gas price will be determined by competition, oil and gas pipeline facilities will be opened fairly, and private enterprises will play important roles in natural gas exploration, development, storage, transportation, and trade. It can been foreseen that China natural gas industry is very likely to take a turn in next 10 years, and a modern natural gas market with consumption about 500 billion cubic meters will come into being characterized by complete supervision system, diversified market, steady supply, fairly opened pipelines, transparent trading mechanism, and competitive prices.

Electricity Pricing for Natural Gas CHP Projects The Higher, the Better?

Regarding the state's policy that gives a higher on-grid electricity price to natural gas CHP (combined heat and power) projects, this paper studies the effect of it on the operation of those projects by theoretical analysis and a case study. It concludes that on-grid electricity price on the high side, compared to heat price, will lead power plants to produce more electricity but less heat, thus causing decrease of the plants' thermal eff iciency and harm to energy saving of the whole society.

New Situation of China Natural Gas Industry

China natural gas industry is at a turning point. Growth of mid-long term natural gas consumption may maintain at about 10%, supply is sufficient or even "over-sufficient", natural gas price will be determined by competition, oil and gas pipeline facilities will be opened fairly, and private enterprises will play important roles in natural gas exploration, development, storage, transportation, and trade. It can been foreseen that China natural gas industry is very likely to take a turn in next 10 years, and a modern natural gas market with consumption about 500 billion cubic meters will come into being characterized by complete supervision system, diversified market, steady supply, fairly opened pipelines, transparent trading mechanism, and competitive prices.

The Oil Price Crash of 2014: Implications for a Multi-Billion Dollar LNG Project

The price of oil is probably the single most important economic variable in the global economy. The rapid drop in price of oil in 2014 set analysts and commentators busy, trying to predict its trajectory and implications. More than $150 billion of investments have been cancelled by oil companies in 2015 due to the low price of oil, with more spending cuts to follow in 2016. The oil price decline was supposed to catalyze a transfer of wealth from oil-producing countries to oil-consuming countries. It was estimated that a $10-a-barrel fall in the oil price transfers around 0.5 percent of world GDP from oil exporters to oil importers. The recent oil price collapse has far-reaching implications for capital projects in the oil and gas industry. The impact of a fall in oil price is analyzed for a large capital investment project, involving the construction and operation of a liquefied natural gas (LNG) plant. The breakeven price (BEP) of oil for the project is determined.

俄欧天然气关系转变对国际液化天然气贸易的潜在影响

乌克兰危机发生后,欧洲迅速提出了摆脱对俄罗斯天然气依赖的长期战略,同时制定了相应措施。2022年,欧洲自俄罗斯进口管道气数量大幅下降,转而由进口LNG弥补,加重了国际LNG供需紧平衡的态势。在全球LNG供应增量有限的情况下,欧洲只能利用高价吸引原本流向亚洲的LNG转向欧洲,二者竞争导致全球天然气价格上涨,同时形成国际LNG贸易的全新格局。欧亚同时争夺的货物会成为全球LNG价格的锚定物。未来几年全球天然气市场仍将保持“高价格、高波动”态势。为了保证中国天然气产业健康发展,建议加快国内天然气增产速度,加快进口天然气管道和储气库建设,加快推进LNG期货上市以及天然气产业数智化转型,增强中国天然气产业整体实力以应对未来市场挑战。

Impact of increased renewables on natural gas markets in eastern United States

This paper explores the market structures of natural gas and electricity as well as the interdependence of natural gas prices and bids with increasing reliance on natural gas as the penetration of renewable energy resources increases in order to complement their intermittencies. In particular, the paper will attempt to answer the following two questions: What could the generation mix look like in 2030 with a renewable-rich generation landscape and how could this impact gas prices? How do gasfired generator(GFG) generation volatility, their prices,and their bids for gas change between 2015 and 2030 with increased penetration of renewables? In order to answer these questions, computational models are derived using forecasting and regression analysis tools and an auction model.

Can the Shanghai LNG Price Index indicate Chinese market?An econometric investigation using price discovery theory

China became the world's second largest liquefied natural gas(LNG)importer in 2018 but has faced extremely high import costs due to a lack of bargaining power.Assessments of the Shanghai LNG Price Index,first released in 2015,are vital for improving the understanding of these cost dynamics.This paper,using the LNG price index data from the Shanghai Petroleum and Gas Exchange(SHPGX)coupled with domestic and international LNG prices from July 1,2015 to December 31,2018,estimates several econometric models to evaluate the long-term and short-term equilibriums of the Shanghai LNG Price Index,the responses to market information shocks and the leading or lagging relationships with LNG and alternative energy prices from other agencies.The results show that the LNG price index of the SHPGX has already exhibited a long-term equilibrium and short-term adjustment mechanisms to reflect the average price level and market movements,but the market information transparency and price discovery efficiency of the index are still inadequate.China's LNG market is still relatively independent of other natural gas markets,and marketization reforms are under way in China.The influence of the SHPGX LNG price index on the trading decisions of market participants is expected to improve with further development of China's LNG reforms,the formation of a natural gas entry-exit system,and the increasing liquidity of the hub.

欧洲天然气定价机制及对我国天然气市场的启示

以俄乌冲突爆发引发欧洲天然气供应危机、欧洲天然气价格和价格体系经历调整为背景,详细介绍了全球天然气贸易定价机制、欧洲天然气定价的演变历史;分析了俄乌冲突对欧洲天然气价格短期和长期的影响;在此基础上,提供了对我国天然气发展的启示和建议。

2013年国际天然气市场供需形势及价格走势分析与展望

2013年,世界天然气市场运行总体平稳,产量和消费量均稳定增长,供需基本平衡。定量、定性分析北美、欧洲、亚太地区三大天然气市场的供需形势和价格趋势后认为:1供需方面,北美天然气消费量小幅增长,供应相对宽松;欧洲天然气消费在2010年之后首次企稳,供需基本平衡;亚太地区天然气消费量增速减缓,新兴经济体仍是主要增长动力;全球LNG液化能力和接收能力同时增加,贸易量小幅反弹。2价格方面,北美和欧洲的天然气2013年平均价格均有较大幅度增长,亚洲地区年均价格小幅下降,三地市场价格差异明显缩小;但亚洲LNG进口价格却长期高于其他地区,承担着不合理的亚洲"溢价"。据此做出展望:预计2014年世界天然气供需将保持平稳增长,但地区市场差异仍将存在;预计北美天然气消费量将与2013年持平,供应由宽松趋于平衡,价格大幅上涨;受经济疲软、气温平稳等因素的综合影响,欧洲气价将同比下降;在国际油价与2013年水平基本持平或略有下降的情况下,预计2014年亚洲LNG进口价格将稳中有降;上述三大天然气市场价格差异有望进一步缩小。

欧洲天然气交易枢纽发展经验及其对中国的启示

我国一直在推进天然气中国价格的建立,先后设立了两个天然气交易所,同时不断开放天然气市场。为了给中国天然气交易枢纽建设提供借鉴和参照,研究并总结了欧洲天然气交易枢纽发展的成功经验。结果表明:①欧洲天然气交易枢纽建设成功的经验包括市场自由化、竞争性的市场、管网的无歧视第三方接入、对居于主导地位企业行为的改革和管制等方面;②另外一些影响因素也非常重要,如国内天然气生产能力、贸易传统、多元化的供应以及市场供应过剩等;③政府推动政策法规变革、监管市场、改革自身的管理模式,在欧洲天然气枢纽的建设中也发挥了重要的作用。结论认为:①相对于欧洲而言,中国面临着既有利也有弊的条件,多源供应、国内生产能力、需求量增长等都是有利的因素,而市场化水平不高、基础设施薄弱、长协合同为主、一体化经营以及供应紧张等则是不利因素;②今后中国的工作重点应该是推进市场自由化、解绑行业以及推动第三方接入;③从微观方面来说,要通过建立交易枢纽、加强管网建设以及统筹发展期货现货市场等措施,在形成交易、期现货市场、价格报告机构和长期合同定价机制转型等方面夯实基础。

俄罗斯天然气出口战略的调整以及对我国的影响

受美国页岩气繁荣发展和欧洲经济衰退影响,俄罗斯对欧洲出口的天然气数量大幅下降。通过数据说明未来俄罗斯将转变其天然气出口战略,着重发展独联体国家和亚太市场,并提供价格优惠和政策倾斜;基于以上客观条件,阐述了此种变化给我国油气行业带来的影响和机遇。

北溪1号管线供应中断对欧洲天然气市场的影响

近年来欧洲天然气需求总量小幅下降。乌克兰危机爆发以来,北溪1号天然气管道状况频发,天然气输送量逐步减少至完全断供,供气不确定性陡增。2022年9月下旬北溪1号和2号管线出现爆炸,恢复供气时间再度延长,进一步抽紧欧洲天然气供应。欧洲管道天然气进口70%来自俄罗斯,且天然气需求季节性特征突出,预计在北溪1号天然气管线完全断供的情境下,虽然欧洲已提前完成注气目标,但市场仍保持紧平衡,欧洲天然气需求减量是缓解供应紧张态势的关键。预计短期内欧洲LNG进口完全替代俄罗斯天然气的难度较大,中短期欧洲天然气价格仍将居高不下,天然气大概率告别廉价能源时代,气价中高位运行或成为常态。