Risk Index Prediction of Civil Aviation Based on Deep Neural Network

Safety is the foundation of sustainable development in civil aviation.Although catastrophic accidents are rare,indicators of potential incidents and unsafe events frequently materialize.Therefore,a history of unsafe data are considered in predicting safety risks.A deep learning method is adopted for extracting reactions in safety risks.The deep neural network(DNN)model for safety risk prediction is shown to extract complex data characteristics better than a shallow network model.Using extended unsafe data and monthly risk indices,hidden layers and iterations are determined.The effectiveness of DNN is also revealed in comparison with the traditional neural network.Through early risk detection using the method in the paper,airlines and the government can mitigate potential risk and take proactive measures to improve civil aviation safety.

Artificial neural network models predicting the leaf area index:a case study in pure even-aged Crimean pine forests from Turkey

Background: Leaf Area Index(LAI) is an important parameter used in monitoring and modeling of forest ecosystems. The aim of this study was to evaluate performance of the artificial neural network(ANN) models to predict the LAI by comparing the regression analysis models as the classical method in these pure and even-aged Crimean pine forest stands.Methods: One hundred eight temporary sample plots were collected from Crimean pine forest stands to estimate stand parameters. Each sample plot was imaged with hemispherical photographs to detect the LAI. The partial correlation analysis was used to assess the relationships between the stand LAI values and stand parameters, and the multivariate linear regression analysis was used to predict the LAI from stand parameters. Different artificial neural network models comprising different number of neuron and transfer functions were trained and used to predict the LAI of forest stands.Results: The correlation coefficients between LAI and stand parameters(stand number of trees, basal area, the quadratic mean diameter, stand density and stand age) were significant at the level of 0.01. The stand age, number of trees, site index, and basal area were independent parameters in the most successful regression model predicted LAI values using stand parameters(R_(adj)~2=0.5431). As corresponding method to predict the interactions between the stand LAI values and stand parameters, the neural network architecture based on the RBF 4-19-1 with Gaussian activation function in hidden layer and the identity activation function in output layer performed better in predicting LAI(SSE(12.1040), MSE(0.1223), RMSE(0.3497), AIC(0.1040), BIC(-77.7310) and R^2(0.6392)) compared to the other studied techniques.Conclusion: The ANN outperformed the multivariate regression techniques in predicting LAI from stand parameters. The ANN models, developed in this study, may aid in making forest management planning in study forest stands.

Reactor Network Synthesis for Waste Reduction Using Instantaneous Value of Environmental Index

Waste reduction is gaining importance as the preferred means of pollution prevention. Reactor network synthesis is one of the key parts of chemical process synthesis. In this study, a geometric approach to reactor network synthesis for waste reduction is presented. The bases of the approach are potential environment impact （PEI） rate-law expression, PEI balance and the instantaneous value of environmental indexes. The instantaneous value can be derived using the PEI balance, PEI rate-law expression and the environmental indexes. The optimal reactor networks with the minimum generation of potential environment impact are geometrically derived by comparing with areas of the corresponding regions. From the case study involving complex reactions, the approach does not involve solving the complicated mathematical problem and can avoid the dimension limitation in the attainable region approach.

A new approach for effectively determining fracture network connec- tions in fractured rocks using R tree indexing

Determinations of fracture network connections would help the investigators remove those ＂meaningless＂ no-flow-passing fractures, providing an updated and more effective fracture network that could considerably improve the computation efficiency in the pertinent numerical simulations of fluid flow and solute transport. The effective algorithms with higher computational efficiency are needed to accomplish this task in large-scale fractured rock masses. A new approach using R tree indexing was proposed for determining fracture connection in 3D stochastically distributed fracture network. By com- paring with the traditional exhaustion algorithm, it was observed that from the simulation results, this approach was much more effective; and the more the fractures were investigated, the more obvious the advantages of the approach were. Furthermore, it was indicated that the runtime used for creating the R tree indexing has a major part in the total of the runtime used for calculating Minimum Bounding Rectangles （MBRs）, creating the R tree indexing, precisely finding out fracture intersections, and identifying flow paths, which are four important steps to determine fracture connections. This proposed approach for the determination of fracture connections in three-dimensional fractured rocks are expected to provide efficient preprocessing and critical database for practically accomplishing numerical computation of fluid flow and solute transport in large-scale fractured rock masses.

Research on the Correlation Between Physical Examination Indexes and TCM Constitutions Using the RBF Neural Network

Objective To establish correlation models between various physical examination indexes and traditional Chinese medicine(TCM)constitutions,and explore their relationships based on the radial basis function(RBF)neural network.Methods The raw data of physical examination indexes and TMC constitutions of 650 subjects who underwent a physical examination were cleaned,classified and sorted,on the basis of which valid data were retrieved and categorized into a training dataset and a test dataset.Subsequently,the RBF neural network was applied to the valid samples in the training set to establish correlation models between various physical examination indexes and TCM constitutions.The accuracy and the error margin of the correlation model were then verified using the valid samples in the test set.Results Of all selected samples,the highest accuracy rates were 80% for the blood lipid index-TCM constitution model;100% for the renal function index-TCM constitution model;100% for the blood routine(male)index-TCM constitution model;88.8% for the blood routine(female)index-TCM constitution model;84.1%for the urine routine index-TCM constitution model;and 100% for the blood transfusion index-TCM constitution model.Conclusions The samples selected in this study suggested that there is a strong correlation between physical examination indexes and TCM constitutions,making it feasible to apply the established correlation models to TCM constitution identification.

Feed-Forward Artificial Neural Network Model for Air Pollutant Index Prediction in the Southern Region of Peninsular Malaysia

This paper describes the application of principal component analysis (PCA) and artificial neural network (ANN) to predict the air pollutant index (API) within the seven selected Malaysian air monitoring stations in the southern region of Peninsular Malaysia based on seven years database (2005-2011). Feed-forward ANN was used as a prediction method. The feed-forward ANN analysis demonstrated that the rotated principal component scores (RPCs) were the best input parameters to predict API. From the 4 RPCs, only 10 (CO, O3, PM10, NO2, CH4, NmHC, THC, wind direction, humidity and ambient temp) out of 12 prediction variables were the most significant parameters to predict API. The results proved that the ANN method can be applied successfully as tools for decision making and problem solving for better atmospheric management.

Prediction of Partial Ring Current Index Using LSTM Neural Network

The local time dependence of the geomagnetic disturbances during magnetic storms indicates the necessity of forecasting the localized magnetic storm indices.For the first time,we construct prediction models for the SuperMAG partial ring current indices(SMR-LT),with the advance time increasing from 1 h to 12 h by Long Short-Term Memory(LSTM)neural network.Generally,the prediction performance decreases with the advance time and is better for the SMR-06 index than for the SMR-00,SMR-12,and SMR-18 index.For the predictions with 12 h ahead,the correlation coefficient is 0.738,0.608,0.665,and 0.613,respectively.To avoid the over-represented effect of massive data during geomagnetic quiet periods,only the data during magnetic storms are used to train and test our models,and the improvement in prediction metrics increases with the advance time.For example,for predicting the storm-time SMR-06 index with 12 h ahead,the correlation coefficient and the prediction efficiency increases from 0.674 to 0.691,and from 0.349 to 0.455,respectively.The evaluation of the model performance for forecasting the storm intensity shows that the relative error for intense storms is usually less than the relative error for moderate storms.

Comparing of Aviation Network Structure of Mid-south,Northwest and Southwest of China Based on Hierarchical Index Model

In order to compare the aviation network of mid-south,northwest and southwest of China to reveal the structure similarity and difference for providing quantitative evidence to construct regional aviation network and improve its structure,hierarchical index model of regional aviation network was established through dividing the aviation network into layers to research its structure characters.Data matrixes were defined to record the basic state of regional aviation network.Index matrixes were constructed to describe the quantitative features of regional aviation network.On the basis of these indexes,several structure indexes of all layers of aviation network were calculated to show the structure features of aviation network,such as ratio of passenger volume within the region with across the region,share rate of passenger volume among layers,ratio of average number of airline for each airport,ratio of average passenger volume for each airline and ratio of airline rate.According to the statistical data,similar structure of share rate of passenger volume among layers and average passenger volume for each airline in their regional aviation network was found after calculating.But on the side of ratio of passenger volume within the region with across the region,ratio of average number of airlines for each airport and ratio of airline rate were different.

An Approach to Dynamic Asymptotic Estimation for Hurst Index of Network Traffic

As an important parameter to describe the sudden nature of network traffic, Hurst index typically conducts behaviors of both self-similarity and long-range dependence. With the evolution of network traffic over time, more and more data are generated. Hurst index estimation value changes with it, which is strictly consistent with the asymptotic property of long-range dependence. This paper presents an approach towards dynamic asymptotic estimation for Hurst index. Based on the calculations in terms of the incremental part of time series, the algorithm enjoys a considerable reduction in computational complexity. Moreover, the local sudden nature of network traffic can be readily captured by a series of real-time Hurst index estimation values dynamically. The effectiveness and tractability of the proposed approach are demonstrated through the traffic data from OPNET simulations as well as real network, respectively.

Assessing Total Factor Productivity for Soybean Production in China Based on DEA-Malmquist Index: 2005-2017

The low and slowly increasing soybean yield restricts the development of soybean production. Accurate measures of total factor productivity (TFP) for soybean production can be helpful in identifying conditions, institutions or policies that promote soybean production development in China. In this paper, TFP growth for soybean production was estimated for a panel data of 10 major soybean producing provinces from 2005 to 2017. Results reveal that TFP grew at an average rate of 1.3% over the whole period, with technical progress contributing 2.3% and efficiency change providing the other -1.0%. The change of TFP for soybean production over that time, whether increase or decline, was mainly derived by technical change except in three years (2005-2007). Positive TFP growth in the provinces of Liaoning and Inner Mongolia, and negative TFP growth in Hebei and Anhui were mainly driven by efficiency change, specifically scale efficiency change except pure technical efficiency in Liaoning.

Bitmap lattice index in road networks

A novel technique called the bitmap lattice index(BLI) is proposed, which combines the advantages of a wireless broadcasting environment with a road network. Existing road networks are based on the on-demand method: a server's workload increases as the query request increases when a server sends a client information. To solve this problem, we propose the BLI. The BLI denotes an object and a node as 0 and 1 in the Hilbert curve(HC) map. The BLI can identify the position of a node and an object through bit information; it can also reduce the broadcasting frequency of a server by reducing the size of the index, thereby decreasing the access latency and query processing times. Moreover, the BLI is highly effective for data filtering, as it can identify the positions of both an object and a node. In a road network, if filtering is done via the Euclidean distance, it may result in an error. To prevent this, we add another validation procedure. The experiment is conducted by applying the BLI to kNN query, and the technique is assessed by a performance evaluation experiment.

Analysis of Maize Production Efficiency Based on DEA-Malmquist Indexes: A Case Study of Henan Province

In order to improve the production efficiency of maize in Henan, China, the HP (High-Pass) filter method is used to obtain the maize trend yield. Secondly, the Malmquist index method is used to analyze the changes of TFP (Total Factor Productivity) of maize in 18 cities in Henan Province in the past 11 years. Finally, the amount of slack in maize input and output is analyzed. The results show that the research and development level of advanced technology of maize production in Henan Province has been improved to some extent in recent years;the advanced technology in various regions has not been fully promoted and utilized;there is a certain degree of relaxation in the input of various elements of maize;the resource allocation is unreasonable, and there is a certain amount of space for saving.

The stability indexes of branched airflow of ventilation network in coal mine

The stability of branched airflow of ventilation network is guarantee of safety in production of coal mine. Two indexes which stand for the stability of branches of ventilation network in coal mine were put forward in this paper, that are airflow intensity and sta- bility index of branched airflow, The airflow stability of working place was divided into different grade according to the stability index. The conclusion has great significance for safety in production of coal mine.

Neural Network Model for Classifying the Economic Recession and Construction of Financial Stress Index

In this paper, a C5.0 decision tree and neural network models are proposed to classify recessions in the US with 12 common financial indices and new financial stress indices inferred from the neural network models are created. A detailed experiment is presented and demonstrates that the neural network models with proper regularization and dropout achieve 98% accuracy in the training set, 97% accuracy in validation set and 100% accuracy in test accuracy. The financial stress indices outperform other existing financial stress indices in many scenes and can accurately locate crisis events even the most recent 2018 US Bear Market. With these models and new indices, contraction can be detected before NBER’s announcement and action could be taken as early as the situation get worse.

Prediction of the undrained shear strength of remolded soil with non-linear regression,fuzzy logic,and artificial neural network

This study aims to predict the undrained shear strength of remolded soil samples using non-linear regression analyses,fuzzy logic,and artificial neural network modeling.A total of 1306 undrained shear strength results from 230 different remolded soil test settings reported in 21 publications were collected,utilizing six different measurement devices.Although water content,plastic limit,and liquid limit were used as input parameters for fuzzy logic and artificial neural network modeling,liquidity index or water content ratio was considered as an input parameter for non-linear regression analyses.In non-linear regression analyses,12 different regression equations were derived for the prediction of undrained shear strength of remolded soil.Feed-Forward backpropagation and the TANSIG transfer function were used for artificial neural network modeling,while the Mamdani inference system was preferred with trapezoidal and triangular membership functions for fuzzy logic modeling.The experimental results of 914 tests were used for training of the artificial neural network models,196 for validation and 196 for testing.It was observed that the accuracy of the artificial neural network and fuzzy logic modeling was higher than that of the non-linear regression analyses.Furthermore,a simple and reliable regression equation was proposed for assessments of undrained shear strength values with higher coefficients of determination.

Study on Ecological Change Remote Sensing Monitoring Method Based on Elman Dynamic Recurrent Neural Network

In this paper, Hailin City of Heilongjiang Province, China is taken as the research area. As an important city in Heilongjiang Province, China, the sustainable development of its ecological environment is related to the opening up, economic prosperity and social stability of Northeast China. In this paper, the remote sensing ecological index (RSEI) of Hailin City in recent 20 years was calculated by using Landsat 5/8/9 series satellite images, and the temporal and spatial changes of the ecological environment in Hailin City were further analyzed and the influencing factors were discussed. From 2003 to 2023, the mean value of RSEI in Hailin City decreased and increased, and the ecological environment decreased slightly as a whole. RSEI declined most significantly from 2003 to 2008, and it increased from 2008 to 2013, decreased from 2013 to 2018, and increased from 2018 to 2023 again, with higher RSEI value in the south and lower RSEI value in the northwest. It is suggested to appropriately increase vegetation coverage in the northwest to improve ecological quality. As a result, the predicted value of Elman dynamic recurrent neural network model is consistent with the change trend of the mean value, and the prediction error converges quickly, which can accurately predict the ecological environment quality in the future study area.

Research on Thermodynamic Properties of Polybrominated Diphenylamine by Neural Network

Based on the location of bromine substituents and conjugation matrix, a new substituent po- sition index ~X not only was defined, but also molecular shape indexes Km and electronega- tivity distance vectors Mm of diphenylamine and 209 kinds of polybrominated diphenylamine （PBDPA） molecules were calculated. Then the quantitative structure-property relationships （QSPR） among the thermodynamic properties of 210 organic pollutants and 0X, K3, M29, M36 were founded by Leaps-and-Bounds regression. Using the four structural parameters as input neurons of the artificial neural network, three satisfactory QSPR models with network structures of 4：21：1, 4：24：1, and 4：24：1 respectively, were achieved by the back-propagation algorithm. The total correlation coefficients R were 0.9999, 0.9997, and 0.9995 respectively and the standard errors S were 1.036, 1.469, and 1.510 respectively. The relative mean deviation between the predicted value and the experimental value of Sθ, AfHe and △fGθ- were 0.11%, 0.34% and 0.24% respectively, which indicated that the QSPR models had good stability and superior predictive ability. The results showed that there were good nonlinear correlations between the thermodynamic properties of PBDPAs and the four structural pa- rameters. Thus, it was concluded that the ANN models established by the new substituent position index were fully applicable to predict properties of PBDPAs.

Study of macroscopic fundamental diagram on Shanghai urban expressway network in China

The macroscopic fundamental diagram（ MFD） is studied to obtain the aggregate behavior of traffic in cities. This paper investigates the existence and the characteristics of different types of daily MFD for the Shanghai urban expressway network. The existence of MFD in the Shanghai urban expressway network is proved based on two weeks＇ data.Moreover, the hysteresis phenomena is present in most days and the network exhibits different hysteresis loops under different traffic situations. The relationship between the hysteresis phenomena and the inhomogeneity of traffic distribution is verified. The MFDs in the years of 2009 and 2012 are compared. The hysteresis loop still exists in 2012, which further verifies the existence of the hysteresis phenomenon. The direct relationship between the length of the hysteresis loop（ ΔO） and the congestion is proved based on sufficient data. The width of the hysteresis loop, i. e., the drop in network flow（ ΔQ） has no relationship with the congestion, and it varies from day to day under different traffic situations.

基于混合型网络DEA-Malmquist法的中国智能效率测量研究

为了准确测量中国智能效率,剖析智能企业运行过程的混合网络型结构,构建并运用混合型网络DEA-Malmquist指数模型,采用2011—2018年中国82家上市智能企业的数据,分别运用构建的模型和传统效率模型进行实证,研究发现:中国智能效率被低估,政府补贴、融资环境和税收负担通过影响智能企业子系统的投入共同影响智能效率。

基于网络Index DEA的多阶段投资组合效率评价研究

数据包络方法(DEA)近些年来被广泛应用于评价投资组合绩效,然而大多数已有DEA投资组合评价模型都将投入和产出设为期望的指标。本文首先对输入、输出类型进行了判定,在风险和收益两大指标的基础上,构建网络Index DEA投资可能集和投资组合评价模型。最后,选取20支我国股票型基金进行实证分析,说明本文所提出的模型的合理性与可行性。