Application of fuzzy analytic hierarchy process and neural network in power transformer risk assessment

In operation,risk arising from power transformer faults is of much uncertainty and complicacy.To timely and objectively control the risks,a transformer risk assessment method based on fuzzy analytic hierarchy process(FAHP) and artificial neural network(ANN) from the perspective of accuracy and quickness is proposed.An analytic hierarchy process model for the transformer risk assessment is built by analysis of the risk factors affecting the transformer risk level and the weight relation of each risk factor in transformer risk calculation is analyzed by application of fuzzy consistency judgment matrix;with utilization of adaptive ability and nonlinear mapping ability of the ANN,the risk factors with large weights are used as input of neutral network,and thus intelligent quantitative assessment of transformer risk is realized.The simulation result shows that the proposed method increases the speed and accuracy of the risk assessment and can provide feasible decision basis for the transformer risk management and maintenance decisions.

Using Extension Theory and Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process on Heterogeneous Wireless Network Selection Algorithm

In order to solve the problem that determining decision factors weights is of subjectivity in heterogeneous wireless network selection algorithm, a network selection algorithm based on extension theory and fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (FAHP) is proposed in this paper. In addition, user and operator codetermine the optimal network using the proposed algorithm, which can give consideration to user and operator benefits. The fuzzy judgment matrix is constructed by membership degree of decision factors which is calculated according to extension theory. The comprehensive weight of each decision factor is obtained using FAHP. Finally, the optimal network is selected through total property value ranking of each candidate network under user preference and operator preference. The simulation results show that the proposed algorithm can select the optimal network efficiently and accurately, satisfy user preference, and implement load balance between networks.

Concurrent Material Selection of Natural Fibre Filament for Fused Deposition Modeling Using Integration of Analytic Hierarchy Process/Analytic Network Process

The employment of natural fibres in fused deposition modeling has raised much attention from researchers in finding a suitable formulation for the natural fibre composite filaments.Moreover,selection of suitable natural fibres for fused deposition modeling should be performed before the development of the composites.It could not be performed without identifying selection criteria that comprehend both materials and fused deposition modeling process requirements.Therefore,in this study,integration of the Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP)/Analytic Network Process(ANP)has been introduced in selecting the natural fibres based in different clusters of selection concurrently.The selection process has been performed based on the interdependency among the selection criteria.Pairwise comparison matrices are constructed based on AHP’s hierarchical model and super matrices are constructed based on the ANP’s network model.As a result,flax fibre has ranked at the top of the selection by scored 19.5%from the overall evaluation.Flax fibre has excellent material properties and been found in various natural fibre composite applications.Further investigation is needed to study the compatibility of this fibre to be reinforced with a thermoplastic polymer matrix to develop a resultant natural fibre composite filament for fused deposition modeling.

Using analytic network process to analyze problems for implementing turn-key construction projects in Taiwan

The turn-key construction project is implemented in Taiwan not by a single company but by a make-shift group of several companies. Hence,problems to coordinate the professional construction management (PCM) and the supervising architectural company often occur for the lack of long-term experience to work together. The various factors that affect the implementation of turn-key projects currently practiced in Taiwan are analyzed using the analytic network process (ANP). The objective is to study how the twelve key factors in the four layers of "Role assignment","Signing contract","Operational procedures" and "Losing capital investment" affect the progress of implementing the turn-key project in Taiwan. The results reveal that "Delay in payment" has the most negative influence with 15.62% weighing factor; "Latent risk" comes next with 11.14% weighing factor,and "Responsibility of construction company for project quality" is the third with 10.79% weighing factor.

基于ANP-可拓云模型的网络型航空公司综合竞争力评价

构建网络型航空公司综合竞争力评价指标体系并实施客观评价,是国内网络型航空公司明确自身定位、快速提升综合竞争力的重要手段。从创新发展能力、运营管理能力和品牌塑造能力3个维度入手建立综合竞争力评价体系,并采用网络分析法(ANP,analytic network process)-可拓云模型对全球20家典型网络型航空公司进行综合评价,得到各航空公司在全球航空运输市场上的相应地位以及各方面的优势与短板,以期为国内网络型航空公司实现高质量发展、进一步提升综合竞争力提供理论和实践参考。研究表明:中国三大网络型航空公司的创新发展能力和运营管理能力尚有不足,建议以枢纽网络和效率提升为重要抓手,着力提升优化。

The Selection of Dry Port Location by Analytic Network Process Model: A Case Study of Dosso-Niger

The aim of this paper is to select the best location for the construction of a dry port in Niger which is a land locked country (LLC). Niger is located in the Sahel and has a land area of 1,267,000 square kilometers [1], with the closest port being port of Cotonou in Benin. The transport corridor from Niamey to Cotonou is approximately 1036 km long [2]. It is estimated that this corridor carries about 40 percent of Niger’s overseas trade traffic [3]. In this work, the Analytic Network Process (ANP) model is used to determine the optimal location of the dry port, among three major cities: Niamey (capital city), Dosso and Gaya. From the application of this selection model, Dosso was selected as the best location for the location of the dry port, while Gaya and Niamey were placed second and third respectively. The results obtained in this work strongly confirm the decision of the government of Niger to construct a dry port in Dosso, a project that commenced in 2010 and is still in progress.

基于ANP-FCE的矿井风险防控系统研发

为加强煤矿安全风险防控能力,采用ANP-FCE相结合的方法构建矿井风险防控系统。首先,基于事故致因理论对矿井生产体系进行调研,并建立矿井风险防控指标体系;其次,运用ANP分析主要影响因素,并采用FCE建立矿井风险防控评价模型;最后,利用Java平台,依托JSP+SSM框架与MySQL数据库联合开发矿井风险防控系统,并在某煤矿试运行。结果表明:该系统可以确定矿井安全生产工作的重点,实现矿井生产数据实时显示,并具有重点作业监控和预警功能。系统的开发有利于企业各级领导及时掌握各种数据信息,提高企业自身的风险防控和预警能力,为煤矿企业的运营和发展提供安全保障。

基于ISM-ANP的绿色包装灰色评价模型研究

目的 对绿色包装设计方案进行多维度综合评价,提供具体的包装优化依据,解决过度包装、废弃包装带来的环境问题。方法 首先建立涵盖环境、产品性能、创新性、经济性、用户体验感五大属性的评价指标体系,以ISM分析指标之间的内在关联情况并利用ANP确定权重值;其次通过灰色模糊评价对包装等级进行划分;最后以综合评价方法求得包装的绿色度评分。结果 将指标权重值与传统AHP方法得出的结果进行比较,发现本研究模型更科学合理。以一项小麦壳制保鲜包装设计为例,运用该综合评价模型进行运算后得出该方案评价值为5.043,再根据指标的得分数据有针对性地提出包装优化方向。结论 研究模型适用于各类绿色包装设计方案的筛选与优化,有助于包装设计与生产相关人员进行决策,引导我国包装行业更好地向绿色模式转变。

基于DEMATEL、AHP和ANP方法的铁路行车安全有效性评估

为加强中国台湾地区铁路交通安全管理体系的有效性,基于欧盟和日本的实践经验,整理出5个主要关键因素和18个次要关键因素.采用多标准决策实验方法和层次分析法,计算各因素的相互依赖性,并结合问卷进行实证分析.使用分析网络过程方法评估各因素之间的相关性,并进行相对权重排序.结果表明,提高铁路安全的5个最重要因素依次为安全风险管理、最高管理层的承诺、安全责任与关键人员、安全政策目标与资源、安全教育训练与适任性管理.调查问卷显示,提升有效性的关键在于改善组织文化.检验现有铁路安全管理系统作业、提升关键人员的专业水平与展现最高管理层决心是首要推动重点,持续推进落实安全文化才能逐步提升铁路安全的有效性.

基于ANP与ArcGIS的城市火灾风险评估

城市火灾风险评估对于降低火灾损失具有重要作用,但建立简便高效的风险评估模型一直是难点与热点问题。在充分调查分析西安市临潼区火灾危险度、区域特征性、防灾减灾能力的基础上,建立西安市临潼区火灾风险评估指标体系。选出火灾载荷密度、重大危险源空间分布、重点消防单位面积、消防供水能力等10个评价指标,采用网络层次分析法(analytic network process,ANP)结构运算确定各评价指标的权重。以500 m×500 m的渔网作为评价单元,构建火灾风险评估模型,并利用ArcGIS空间分析功能进行指标量化、评价单元划分、评价模型运算,最终得到西安市临潼区火灾风险评估图。评估结果显示:西安市临潼区火灾风险整体成南高北低的趋势,高风险区域占1.81%,中风险区域占5.82%,次风险区域占16.85%,低风险区域占75.53%,火灾高风险区域主要集中在骊山、斜口、代王、新丰、北田五个街道办。据现场实际调查,这些街道办人口和建筑密集,重大危险源较多,说明所建风险评估模型准确可靠,简便高效,可为火灾孕灾环境类似的其它城市火灾风险评估提供有益借鉴。

基于ANP-物元可拓法的中小餐饮场所火灾风险评价

为有效预防中小餐饮场所火灾事故的发生,运用事故树分析法辨识中小餐饮场所火灾风险因素,并从人为因素、设备因素、环境因素、管理因素4个方面建立中小餐饮场所火灾风险评价指标体系;通过网络层次分析法分析指标间的影响关系并确定各评价指标的权重;构建基于ANP-物元可拓法的中小餐饮场所火灾风险评价模型,并选取某中小餐饮场所进行实例研究。评价结果显示:该餐饮场所的火灾风险等级为Ⅱ级,处于风险较低的状态,与该餐饮场所的实际相符合,验证了该方法的合理性和可靠性,为中小餐饮场所火灾风险评价提供一种新方法。

基于ANP的修船工人稳定性评价指标体系研究

当前,我国的船舶修理主体业务基本以外包为主,而外包的修船工人的频繁流动不利于修船企业的长期稳定发展,相反,稳定的修理工人会让船舶修理企业拥有更多可能,因此研究修船工人的稳定因素显得十分必要,本文采用网络层次分析(ANP),对修船工人稳定因素进行研究,得出结论。

正交实验结合AHP和GA-BP神经网络优化益黄散醇提工艺

目的 优化益黄散的醇提工艺。方法 采用回流提取法,以乙醇体积分数、液料比、提取时间为考察因素设计正交实验,以橙皮苷、川陈皮素、橘皮素、没食子酸、诃黎勒酸、诃子酸、甘草苷、甘草酸、丁香酚含量和干浸膏得率为指标,采用层次分析法(AHP)进行赋权并计算综合评分。通过验证正交实验和遗传算法(GA)-反向传播神经网络(BP神经网络)所预测的结果确定益黄散最佳醇提工艺参数。结果 正交实验优选的最佳醇提工艺参数为乙醇体积分数60%、液料比14∶1(mL/g)、提取时间90 min、提取2次,验证所得综合评分为79.19分;GA-BP神经网络优选的最佳醇提工艺参数为乙醇体积分数65%、液料比14∶1(mL/g)、提取时间60 min、提取2次,验证所得综合评分为85.30分,高于正交实验所得结果。结论 采用正交实验结合GA-BP神经网络的寻优方法较传统的正交实验寻优方法效果更佳,其优选出的益黄散最佳醇提工艺稳定可靠。

基于ANP-TOPSIS的船舶修理项目优先级评价体系

为科学评判船舶修船项目的优先级,解决资源冲突问题,提升修船企业的经济效益,采用文献研究法、头脑风暴法和德尔菲法建立项目优先级评价指标体系。从财务、客户、内部流程、学习成长和战略等5个维度确定目标层和17个指标的影响因素。通过网络层次分析法(Analytic Network Process,ANP)获取指标权重,采用TOPSIS(Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to an Ideal Solution)法进行修船项目优先级排序。选取6个船舶修理项目进行实例分析,验证该方法的适用性。

密室逃脱类场所人员疏散影响因素研究

准确识别火灾等突发事件时影响密室逃脱类场所人员疏散的因素,并客观系统分析因素间的层次关系和重要程度,对密室逃脱类场所的应急疏散至关重要。基于密室逃脱类场所行业规范和现状,从人员、建筑结构、环境、消防管理4个维度提取了26个影响因素,采用AISM(对抗解释结构模型)及MICMAC(交叉影响矩阵相乘法)构建密室逃脱类场所人员疏散影响因素3级递阶结构模型,综合分析因素间作用关系,并分析因素与管理层、运营层、玩家层3类主体对应责任关系,然后联合ANP(网络层次分析法)确定各影响因素的权重和排序。结果表明:影响密室逃脱类场所人员疏散的深层根本因素主要为制度与规程编制完备性、密室剧情类型、空间组合形式、空间嵌套层数等,其可通过驱动密室场所经营位置、门锁联动性、空间内部昏暗度、道具种类与数量、NPC(非玩家角色)疏散引导能力等中层特性影响因素优化,规范消防设施完备性、应急预案编制情况、安全教育与培训情况等关键共性影响因素,最终提升玩家应急疏散能力。

DECISION MAKING - THE ANALYTIC HIERARCHY AND NETWORK PROCESSES (AHP/ANP)

This is the first part of an introduction to multicriteria decision making using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and its generalization, the Analytic Network Process (ANP). The discussion involves individual and group decisions both with the independence of the criteria from the alternatives as in the AHP and also with dependence and feedback in the entire decision structure as in the ANP. This part explains the Analytic Hierarchy Process, with examples, and presents in some detail the mathematical foundations. An exposition of the Analytic Network Process and its applications will appear in later issues of this journal.

海南省波浪能开发智能化适宜性分析模型研究

针对目前波浪能开发适宜性分析方法存在的问题及工作量大、成本高的特点,基于地理信息系统(Geographic information system, GIS)、改进的多准则决策方法(Multi-criteria decision making, MCDM)和人工神经网络(Artificial neural network, ANN)提出海南省波浪能开发智能化适宜性分析模型。对于该模型:首先,使用模糊层次分析(Fuzzy analytic hierarchy process, FAHP)法计算评价指标权重,降低专家主观偏差,更好地描述信息的不确定性;其次,提出灰色关联分析-折衷优化(Grey relation analysis-vlse kriterijumska optimizacijaⅠkompromisno resenje, GRA-VIKOR)法计算开发适宜性指数,解决评价过程中部分信息丢失、评价结果不准确的问题;最后依托反向传播(Back propagation, BP)神经网络进行模型训练并进行验证,实现海南省波浪能开发适宜性分析的智能化,不仅提高工作效率,而且降低计算成本。通过模型得到海南省波浪能可开发区域和开发适宜性等级,为海南省波浪能选址决策奠定基础,同时可填补海南省波浪能开发适宜性分析在智能化领域的空白。

双循环背景下石化企业供应链韧性评价研究——基于AHP-BP方法

随着环境不确定性的提高,中国石化企业供应链稳定性需求日渐攀升,供应链韧性评价已经成为判断石化企业风险应对能力的重要手段。基于双循环背景,通过构建石化企业供应链韧性评估指标体系,利用层次分析法和BP神经网络,对石化企业供应链韧性强度进行评估,确定了供应链韧性水平。结果表明,各石化企业的供应链韧性强度存在较大差异,供应链韧性整体水平偏低。在研究结果的基础上,对韧性供应链锻造提出了切实可行的建议。

基于组合赋权云模型的塔台管制系统运行安全评估

随着我国民航业的迅猛发展,空中交通流量不断攀升,机场塔台管制系统的运行安全面临严峻考验,因此,正确识别和评估风险成为有效提高塔台管制系统运行安全水平的重要前提。为精准且有效地完成对塔台管制系统运行的安全评估,构建了基于模糊决策实验室分析法(Decision-Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory,DEMATEL)网络层次分析法(Analytic Network Process,ANP)熵权法云模型的塔台管制系统运行安全评估模型。首先,通过流程图法并结合人机环管的思想建立塔台管制系统运行安全评估指标体系,并采用模糊DEMATEL法确定评估指标间的相互影响关系,绘制评估指标之间的网络结构图;然后,通过ANP法确定各评估指标的主观权重,采用熵权法确定各评估指标的客观权重,并通过博弈论方法计算评估指标的综合权重;最后,将权重结果与评语层云模型结合使用对各级安全评估指标进行安全评估,通过MATLAB软件完成算例的仿真分析。结果表明:该塔台管制系统运行安全等级在一般和良好之间,仍需采取有效措施对某些风险因素进行控制;同时验证了该模型在塔台管制系统运行安全评估中具有可行性和准确性,对塔台管制系统安全评估具有指导意义。