Ripple-effect analysis for operational architecture of air defense systems with supernetwork modeling

In order to solve the problem that the ripple-effect analy- sis for the operational architecture of air defense systems （OAADS） is hardly described in quantity with previous modeling approaches, a supernetwork modeling approach for the OAADS is put for- ward by extending granular computing. Based on that operational units and links are equal to different information granularities, the supernetwork framework of the OAADS is constructed as a “four- network within two-layer” structure by forming dynamic operating coalitions, and measuring indexes of the ripple-effect analysis for the OAADS are given combining with Laplace spectral radius. In this framework, via analyzing multidimensional attributes which inherit relations between operational units in different granular scales, an extended granular computing is put forward integrating with a topological structure. Then the operation process within the supernetwork framework, including transformation relations be- tween two layers in the vertical view and mapping relations among functional networks in the horizontal view, is studied in quantity. As the application case shows, comparing with previous modeling approaches, the supernetwork model can validate and analyze the operation mechanism in the air defense architecture, and the ripple-effect analysis can be used to confirm the key operational unit with micro and macro viewpoints.

Observation of the Effect of Video Assessment Method on the Operation Skills of Individual Nurses

Objective:To explore the application effect of video assessment method in clinical nurses’nursing operation skills.Method:To select 58 nurses who participated in the individual soldier standard in the children’s hospital in 2019 and 2020 as the research objects,among which the nurses who participated in the individual soldier standard in 2019 were the nurses who participated in the individual soldier standard in 2019 and 2020.A total of 29 people in the first batch were set as the control group,using traditional assessment methods.In 2020,the second batch of 29 nurses who participated in the individual soldier standard reached the experimental group.Using the video assessment method,there was no significant difference in general information between the two groups(P>0.05).After the assessment,the scores,coping with work pressure,and proactiveness of the two groups of research subjects were compared.Results:The experimental group’s nursing operation assessment scores,coping with work pressure,and proactiveness were significantly better than those of the control group,the difference was statistically significant(P<0.05).Conclusion:The application of the video assessment method improves the passing rate of nurses’operational skills examination,enhances nurses’initiative in learning,reduces examination pressure,and can be accurately,timely,and safely applied to clinical nursing work,which is worthy of study and promotion.

Assessment for Production and Operation Ability of Medium and Small-sized Enterprises Based on Neural Network

In order to improve production and operation ability of medium and small-sized enterprises, an assessment-index system of production and operation ability was proposed, and a corresponding assessment model was established based on BP neural network. The conjunction weights of the neural network were continuously modified from output layer to input layer in the process of neural network training to reduce the errors between the anticipated and actual outputs. The results from an example show that this method is reliable and feasible. The production and operation abilitv of an enterorise with assessed result of 0.833 is fairly oowerful, and that with assessed result of 0.644 is average.

Research on construction of operation architecture based on complex network

Operation architecture plays a more important role in Network Centric Warfare(NGAV),which involves dynamic operation networks with complex properties.Thus,it is essential to investigate the operation architecture under the informatization condition within NCAW and find a proper network construction method to efficiently coordinate various functional modules on a particular situation,i.e.,the aerial combat.A new method integrating the physical level and functional level of NCW is proposed to establish the operation architecture,where the concept of network operation constraints unit and net constructing mechanisms are employed to avoid conflicts among different platforms.Meanwhile,we conduct simulations to assess the effectiveness and feasibility of the constructed operation architecture and analyze the influence of the network parameters.

Mission-oriented capability evaluation for combat network based on operation loops

With continuous growth in scale,topology complexity,mission phases,and mission diversity,challenges have been placed for efficient capability evaluation of modern combat systems.Aiming at the problems of insufficient mission consideration and single evaluation dimension in the existing evaluation approaches,this study proposes a mission-oriented capability evaluation method for combat systems based on operation loop.Firstly,a combat network model is given that takes into account the capability properties of combat nodes.Then,based on the transition matrix between combat nodes,an efficient algorithm for operation loop identification is proposed based on the Breadth-First Search.Given the mission-capability satisfaction of nodes,the effectiveness evaluation indexes for operation loops and combat network are proposed,followed by node importance measure.Through a case study of the combat scenario involving space-based support against surface ships under different strategies,the effectiveness of the proposed method is verified.The results indicated that the ROI-priority attack method has a notable impact on reducing the overall efficiency of the network,whereas the O-L betweenness-priority attack is more effective in obstructing the successful execution of enemy attack missions.

Operational Risk Assessment for Integrated Transmission and Distribution Networks

To satisfy the requirements of accurate operationalrisk assessment of integrated transmission and distribution networks (I-T&D), an integrated operational risk assessment (IORA) algorithm is proposed. Specific cases demonstrate thatan I-ORA is necessary because it provides accurate handlingof the coupling between transmission and distribution networks,accurate analysis of power supply mode (PSM) changes ofimportant users and helps to improve security and stability ofpower grid operations. Two key technical requirements in theI-ORA algorithm are realized, i.e., integrated topology analysisand integrated power flow calculation. Under a certain contingency, integrated topology analysis is used to assess the risksof substation power cuts, network split and PSM changes ofimportant users, while the integrated power flow calculation,based on the self-adaptive Levenburg-Marquard method andNewton method, can be implemented to assess risks of heavyload/overload and voltage deviation. In addition, the graphicsprocessing unit is used to parallelly process some computationintensive steps. Numerical experiments show that the proposedI-ORA algorithm can realize accurate assessment for the entireI-T&D. In addition, the efficiency and convergence are satisfying,indicating the proposed I-ORA algorithm can significantly benefitreal practice in the coordination operation of I-T&D in the future.

Assessing environmental impact:Micro-energy network optimization in a Chinese industrial park

Micro-energy systems contribute significantly to environmental improvement by reducing dependence on power grids through the utilization of multiple renewable energy sources.This study quantified the environmental impact of a micro-energy network system in an industrial park through a life cycle assessment using the operation of the micro-energy network over a year as the functional unit and“cradle-to-gate”as the system boundary.Based on the baseline scenario,a natural gas generator set was added to replace central heating,and the light pipes were expanded to constitute the optimized scenario.The results showed that the key impact categories for both scenarios were global warming,fine particulate matter formation,human carcinogenic toxicity,and human non-carcinogenic toxicity.The overall environmental impact of the optimized scenario was reduced by 68%compared to the baseline scenario.A sensitivity analysis of the key factors showed that electricity from the power grid was the key impact factor in both scenarios,followed by central heating and natural gas.Therefore,to reduce the environmental impact of network systems,it is necessary to further optimize the grid power structure.The research approach can be used to optimize micro-energy networks and evaluate the environmental impact of different energy systems.

DEMATEL-ANP在光电对抗系统作战效能评估中的应用

对光电对抗系统作战效能评估指标体系进行完善和改进,将指挥决策和作战对象等影响因素纳入指标体系。将决策实验室分析法-网络分析法(DEMATEL-ANP)引入光电对抗系统作战效能评估中,研究使用DEMATEL法厘清光电对抗系统作战效能指标体系中各指标之间的影响关系,和利用ANP计算得出各指标权重的方法。通过对评估数据进行分析,针对性地提出改进措施来提高光电对抗系统的作战能力。

基于模糊贝叶斯网络的低空无人机运行风险评估

为解决目前城市低空环境下的无人机(UAV)运行安全风险问题,利用模糊贝叶斯网络(FBN)识别和评估低空无人机运行的关键风险因素。首先,在分析低空无人机运行流程基础上,从人-机-环-管角度分析低空无人机运行过程的风险因素。随后,利用GeNIe软件构建低空无人机运行风险评估贝叶斯网络(BN),利用专家先验知识和模糊集量化分析底事件的先验概率。最后,开展单因素分析、双因素分析以及敏感性分析,并以实例验证网络可行性。研究结果表明:低空无人机运行的关键风险因素为无人机电池故障、运行航线的环境障碍物以及无人机运行监管技术;FBN反向推理分析结果显示,环境相关风险(79%)、无人机设备风险(60%)是无人机运行过程主要风险因素。

基于OODA环的网络化防空体系作战效能评估

以网络化防空体系作战效能评估为对象开展研究,针对效能评估过程中概念梳理不清、指标体系不科学、指标权重不合理等问题,系统梳理网络化防空体系OODA环模型,分析网络化防空体系作战流程。运用德尔菲法制定动态的效能评估指标体系,采用层次分析法确定评估指标体系指标权重。构建灰色模糊评估模型,对网络化防空体系作战效能进行综合评估,并用实例验证该方法和模型的有效性。该方法可为构建网络化防空体系,评估防空体系作战效能提供方法和参考。

基于OODA环的低空防御装备体系作战效能评估

针对低空防御装备体系存在功能结构复杂、信息交互多、任务抛面大、新装融合不确定等因素导致装备体系作战效能评估容易产生误差的问题,根据装备和任务特点建立低空防御装备战技指标评价体系,采用OODA环理论构建作战网络评估模型,借鉴信息熵和ADC相关概念计算网络边和节点的自信息量,通过多路作战环信息熵的聚合得到装备体系作战效能,最后对新型低空防御装备体系作战效能实例进行评估,分别得出高能激光武器、高能率微波、电子压制、蜂群对抗、粒子束等装备加入低空防御体系后对小型无人机类目标、巡飞弹类、蜂群类目标的作战效能,给出低空防御装备体系建设相关建议。

基于复杂网络的陆空协同作战体系效能评估方法

针对陆空火力打击作战的体系对抗问题,对体系效能评估方法进行了归纳梳理,分析阐述了协同作战背景下的协同作战体系效能评估的重要意义。基于复杂网络理论提出一种协同作战体系效能的综合评估模型,研究基于OODA作战环和改进功能依赖网络结合的动态效能评估方法,通过构建OODA环和改进功能依赖网结合的复杂网络评估模型,以实现陆空联合火力打击协同作战的动态仿真评估。

基于模糊贝叶斯网络的高速公路营运客车运行风险评估

为评估高速公路营运客车运行风险,运用模糊贝叶斯网络,提出了一种基于GPS数据的高速公路营运客车运行风险评估方法。确定高速公路营运客车运行两大类风险因素及具体表征风险评估指标,利用GeNIe软件构建高速公路营运客车运行风险的贝叶斯网络拓扑结构。建立安全、较安全、较危险和危险4个等级的评价集,采用降半梯形分布函数计算隶属度并构建隶属度矩阵,确定了隶属度到概率的转换公式,最后使用GeNIe软件对高速公路营运客车运行风险结果进行推理计算,并依据最大隶属原则确定其风险等级。结果表明,该评估模型实现了高速公路营运客车运行风险量化分级评价,识别了安全性较差路段,并以G12珲乌高速吉林至长春龙嘉机场段为实例,验证了该评估方法的有效性。

基于AHP与BN的天然气场站吊装作业动态风险评估模型

天然气场站吊装作业是涉及高空和重物搬运的高风险作业活动。为精准评估天然气场站吊装作业的动态风险,选择事故发生频率作为风险评估的主要指标,采用耦合模糊集理论的AHP和BN进行研究。通过AHP建立多层次结构模型,识别并确定关键安全因素的权重,通过BN构建变量间的因果关系网络,计算和预测事故发生频率,并验证两种方法在处理不确定性信息、反映变量间复杂依赖关系以及动态更新安全评估结果方面的有效性。研究结果表明:人员因素影响最显著,重要度达41.3%。此外,AHP和BN两者结合能有效评估吊装作业的风险,并表明当作业人员缺乏资质和经验时,天然气场站吊装作业事故发生频率等级由Ⅰ级提升至Ⅲ级。研究结果可为天然气场站吊装作业的安全管理提供参考。

有砟轨道精捣作业中长波不平顺控制效果预测

精捣作业是整治有砟轨道中长波不平顺的重要措施,研究精捣作业后中长波不平顺改善效果,对指导精捣方案制定及提升作业质量具有重要意义。结合我国某普速铁路有砟轨道精捣维修实例,梳理精捣作业方式,分析中长波不平顺评价指标随精捣作业阶段的发展趋势,构建MEA-BP神经网络模型预测精捣作业后的高低、轨向60 m中点弦测值,充分考虑了初始轨道不平顺、起拨道量、区段类型和作业阶段对中长波不平顺控制效果的影响。研究结果表明:不同精捣作业阶段及不同线路区段均对高低、轨向不平顺发展趋势产生了差异性的影响效果;采用神经网络预测模型可有效预测精捣作业后的中长波不平顺。

基于DK2-PLF的主动配电网馈线合环电流评估

合环电流评估技术对于配电网馈线合环转供电操作具有重要意义,为了提高主动配电网馈线合环电流计算的准确性,文中从融入源荷数据分布特性及预测的角度,提出基于双重K2算法和概率潮流(double K2 algorithm and probability load flow,DK2-PLF)的主动配电网馈线合环电流评估方法。首先,采用基于DK2算法的贝叶斯网络描述源荷相关性样本;其次,利用Cholesky分解方法处理获得的源荷相关性样本,以半不变量法计算主动配电网馈线合环电流的累积概率分布;然后,对主动配电网馈线合环电流从合环成功率和越限程度两方面进行安全性评估;最后,以贵州某城市为算例,对10 kV配电网系统开展馈线合环电流评估研究。得出以下结论:一是从概率密度、累积分布、最大误差三方面比较,相比于K2算法,DK2算法源荷预测值的概率密度、累积分布误差较小,验证了DK2算法的优越性;二是从累积分布、最大误差两方面比较,采用Cholesky分解的半不变量法对比未采用Cholesky分解的半不变量法、蒙特卡洛法,其累积分布误差较小,采用Cholesky分解的半不变量法满足主动配电网馈线合环电流评估要求;三是从合环成功率、合环越限程度两方面比较,采用半不变量法计算的合环电流安全性指标结果与仿真结果偏差在电网经验误差5%范围内,说明基于DK2-PLF的主动配电网馈线合环电流评估方法可为合环辅助决策提供参考。

计及源荷不确定性的配电网可靠性高效评估方法

基于输电线路故障率与服役时间、运行条件之间的耦合关系,本文提出了一种计及实时运行条件改变的配电网可靠性高效评估方法。为改进传统可靠性评估方法在系统运行条件改变时需要重复进行可靠性评估过程的弊端,基于模型-数据混合驱动提出了面向源荷多维不确定性因素的可靠性评估方法。首先,基于输电线路不可用率与运行条件及老化效应间的耦合关系,建立输电线路不可用率模型,并提出配电网关键元件选取方法。然后,构建配电网可靠性指标关于关键元件可靠性参数的解析模型。最后,使用多层前馈神经网络得到解析模型与可再生能源出力及配网负荷水平的映射关系,当源荷变化时快速更新配电网运行可靠性指标。算例测试对本文所提算法的准确性和有效性进行了验证。

基于改进ADC法的侦察无人机作战效能评估

针对侦察无人机系统作战效能评估问题,提出一种改进ADC评估模型。基于侦察无人机系统的作战任务及作战过程,构建出侦察无人机作战效能指标体系;在传统ADC法的基础上综合考虑作战人员保障因素和战场环境因素,结合层次分析法和模糊综合评判法对侦察无人机系统的作战效能进行评估。最后通过算例验证了该模型的可行性和有效性,评估结果显示,改进后的ADC法使得侦察无人机作战效能评估更加贴近实战。

基于网络分析法的联合作战指挥能力评估

为科学评估联合作战指挥机构的指挥能力,通过建立联合作战指挥机构指挥能力指标体系,分析各层级指标之间的相互关系以及指标组内部元素之间的相互影响关系,运用超级决策软件建立了联合作战指挥机构指挥能力评估指标的关系图,得到最终指标体系的权重,采集两组战役级指挥机构演习评估数据,计算能力评价结果。通过分析指标权重,指出提升联合作战机构的指挥能力尤其要突出抓好筹划决策能力、情报侦察能力、作战调控能力建设三个重点。

考虑交叉网络效应的平台跨界竞争研究

平台向多领域实施跨界经营为企业获取了持续的竞争优势,但也加剧了各界对其进行多市场垄断和跨市场势力滥用的担忧。构建Hotelling模型,对平台跨界前后的市场均衡变化情况进行分析。结论表明:第一,平台跨界后,跨界平台的双边用户规模都增加,不跨界平台则都减少。两个平台对同一边用户收取的使用费增减幅度相等、方向相反。第二,当跨界成本较大时,跨界平台的利润和社会总福利会随着新增商家类型总数的增大呈现先减后增的变化趋势;当跨界成本较小时,随着新增商家类型总数的增加而增加。第三,当商家与消费者的交叉网络效应相差足够大时,消费者剩余会随着新增商家类型总数的增加呈现先增后减的变化趋势;反之,随着新增商家类型总数的增加而增加。对平台企业实施跨界行为展开讨论,能够对平台企业跨界竞争理论进行补充,同时也能为规范平台企业的跨界竞争行为提供参考。