Modelling the impact of climate change on rangeland forage production using a generalized regression neural network:a case study in Isfahan Province,Central Iran

Monitoring of rangeland forage production at specified spatial and temporal scales is necessary for grazing management and also for implementation of rehabilitation projects in rangelands. This study focused on the capability of a generalized regression neural network（GRNN） model combined with GIS techniques to explore the impact of climate change on rangeland forage production. Specifically, a dataset of 115 monitored records of forage production were collected from 16 rangeland sites during the period 1998–2007 in Isfahan Province, Central Iran. Neural network models were designed using the monitored forage production values and available environmental data（including climate and topography data）, and the performance of each network model was assessed using the mean estimation error（MEE）, model efficiency factor（MEF）, and correlation coefficient（r）. The best neural network model was then selected and further applied to predict the forage production of rangelands in the future（in 2030 and 2080） under A1 B climate change scenario using Hadley Centre coupled model. The present and future forage production maps were also produced. Rangeland forage production exhibited strong correlations with environmental factors, such as slope, elevation, aspect and annual temperature. The present forage production in the study area varied from 25.6 to 574.1 kg/hm^2. Under climate change scenario, the annual temperature was predicted to increase and the annual precipitation was predicted to decrease. The prediction maps of forage production in the future indicated that the area with low level of forage production（0–100 kg/hm^2） will increase while the areas with moderate, moderately high and high levels of forage production（≥100 kg/hm^2） will decrease both in 2030 and in 2080, which may be attributable to the increasing annual temperature and decreasing annual precipitation. It was predicted that forage production of rangelands will decrease in the next couple of decades, especially in the western and southern parts of Isfahan Province. These changes are more pronounced in elevations between 2200 and 2900 m. Therefore, rangeland managers have to cope with these changes by holistic management approaches through mitigation and human adaptations.

Data-driven Transient Stability Assessment Model Considering Network Topology Changes via Mahalanobis Kernel Regression and Ensemble Learning

Transient stability assessment(TSA)is of great importance in power system operation and control.One of the usual tasks in TSA is to estimate the critical clearing time(CCT)of a given fault under the given network topology and pre-fault power flow.Data-driven methods try to obtain models describing the mapping between these factors and the CCT from a large number of samples.However,the influence of network topology on CCT is hard to be analyzed and is often ignored,which makes the models inaccurate and unpractical.In this paper,a novel data-driven TSA model combining Mahalanobis kernel regression and ensemble learning is proposed to deal with the problem.The model is a weighted sum of several sub-models.Each sub-model only uses the data of one topology to construct a kernel regressor.The weights are determined by both the topological similarity and numerical similarity between the samples.The similarities are decided by the parameters in Mahalanobis distance,and the parameters are to be trained.To reduce the model complexity,sub-models within the same topology category share the same parameters.When estimating CCT,the model uses not only the sub-model which the sample topology belongs to,but also other sub-models.Thus,it avoids the problem that there may be too few data under some topologies.It also efficiently utilizes information of data under all the topologies.Moreover,its decision-making process is clear and understandable,and an effective training algorithm is also designed.Test results on both the IEEE 10-machine 39-bus and a real system verify the effectiveness of the proposed model.

Changes in the phenology of the ground beetle Pterostichus madidus

A growing body of evidence shows that climate change can alter the phenology of plants and animals. In this study long-term data from the UK Environmental Change Network （ECN） were analyzed to investigate whether there has been a change in the phenology of the ground beetle Pterostichus madidus （Fabricius, 1775）. Pitfall trap data were available from 12 ECN sites across the United Kingdom, most of which have been in operation for more than 15 years. Weather and vegetation datasets were also utilized. Pitfall trap lines were categorized to eight vegetation types. Trend analysis over time was carried out first using all the available dates of capture events, then the datasets grouped by vegetation type and site. Shifts in high-activity periods were also analyzed. P madidus appearance dates advanced significantly at seven sites and in five vegetation types. Peak activity advanced at two sites. At one site the timing of activity became significantly later. The last day of activity did not change significantly, supporting the theory that the cessation of the activity period is more likely to be controlled by photoperiod than temperature. The relationships between phenological variables and climatic factors were also investigated. Howe＇ver, no significant correlations were detected. These results demonstrate that between 1992 and 2008, phenology ofP madidus at seven sites from the eight analyzed has changed. Global warming may be driving these changes and future work will investigate underlying processes.