Prediction Method for Network Traffic Based on Maximum Correntropy Criterion

This paper proposes a method for improving the precision of Network Traffic Prediction based on the Maximum Correntropy Criterion(NTPMCC),where the nonlinear characteristics of network traffic are considered.This method utilizes the MCC as a new error evaluation criterion or named the cost function(CF)to train neural networks(NN).MCC is based on a new similarity function(Generalized correlation entropy function,Correntropy),which has as its foundation the Parzen window evaluation and Renyi entropy of error probability density function.At the same time,by combining the MCC with the Mean Square Error(MSE),a mixed evaluation criterion with MCC and MSE is proposed as a cost function of NN training.According to the traffic network characteristics including the nonlinear,non-Gaussian,and mutation,the Elman neural network is trained by MCC and MCC-MSE,and then the trained neural network is used as the model for predicting network traffic.The simulation results based on the evaluation by Mean Absolute Error(MAE),MSE,and Sum Squared Error(SSE)show that the accuracy of the prediction based on MCC is superior to the results of the Elman neural network with MSE.The overall performance is improved by about 0.0131.

Network traffic prediction by a wavelet-based combined model

Network traffic prediction models can be grouped into two types, single models and combined ones. Combined models integrate several single models and thus can improve prediction accuracy. Based on wavelet transform, grey theory, and chaos theory, this paper proposes a novel combined model, wavelet-grey-chaos （WGC）, for network traffic prediction. In the WGC model, we develop a time series decomposition method without the boundary problem by modifying the standard à trous algorithm, decompose the network traffic into two parts, the residual part and the burst part to alleviate the accumulated error problem, and employ the grey model GM（1,1） and chaos model to predict the residual part and the burst part respectively. Simulation results on real network traffic show that the WGC model does improve prediction accuracy.

A Network Traffic Prediction Algorithm Based on Prophet-EALSTM-GPR

Huge networks and increasing network traffic will consume more and more resources.It is critical to predict network traffic accurately and timely for network planning,and resource allocation,etc.In this paper,a combined network traffic prediction model is proposed,which is based on Prophet,evolutionary attention-based LSTM(EALSTM)network,and Gaussian process regression(GPR).According to the non-smooth,sudden,periodic,and long correlation characteristics of network traffic,the prediction procedure is divided into three steps to predict network traffic accurately.In the first step,the Prophetmodel decomposes network traffic data into periodic and non-periodic parts.The periodic term is predicted by the Prophet model for different granularity periods.In the second step,the non-periodic term is fed to an EALSTM network to extract the importance of the different features in the sequence and learn their long correlation,which effectively avoids the long-term dependence problem caused by long step length.Finally,GPR is used to predict the residual term to boost the predictability even further.Experimental results indicate that the proposed scheme is more applicable and can significantly improve prediction accuracy compared with traditional linear and nonlinear models.

Network Traffic Prediction Using Radial Kernelized-Tversky Indexes-Based Multilayer Classifier

Accurate cellular network traffic prediction is a crucial task to access Internet services for various devices at any time.With the use of mobile devices,communication services generate numerous data for every moment.Given the increasing dense population of data,traffic learning and prediction are the main components to substantially enhance the effectiveness of demand-aware resource allocation.A novel deep learning technique called radial kernelized LSTM-based connectionist Tversky multilayer deep structure learning(RKLSTM-CTMDSL)model is introduced for traffic prediction with superior accuracy and minimal time consumption.The RKLSTM-CTMDSL model performs attribute selection and classification processes for cellular traffic prediction.In this model,the connectionist Tversky multilayer deep structure learning includes multiple layers for traffic prediction.A large volume of spatial-temporal data are considered as an input-to-input layer.Thereafter,input data are transmitted to hidden layer 1,where a radial kernelized long short-term memory architecture is designed for the relevant attribute selection using activation function results.After obtaining the relevant attributes,the selected attributes are given to the next layer.Tversky index function is used in this layer to compute similarities among the training and testing traffic patterns.Tversky similarity index outcomes are given to the output layer.Similarity value is used as basis to classify data as heavy network or normal traffic.Thus,cellular network traffic prediction is presented with minimal error rate using the RKLSTM-CTMDSL model.Comparative evaluation proved that the RKLSTM-CTMDSL model outperforms conventional methods.

Attention-Based Multi-Scale Prediction Network for Time-Series Data

Time series data is a kind of data accumulated over time,which can describe the change of phenomenon.This kind of data reflects the degree of change of a certain thing or phenomenon.The existing technologies such as LSTM and ARIMA are better than convolutional neural network in time series prediction,but they are not enough to mine the periodicity of data.In this article,we perform periodic analysis on two types of time series data,select time metrics with high periodic characteristics,and propose a multi-scale prediction model based on the attention mechanism for the periodic trend of the data.A loss calculation method for traffic time series characteristics is proposed as well.Multiple experiments have been conducted on actual data sets.The experiments show that the method proposed in this paper has better performance than commonly used traffic prediction methods(ARIMA,LSTM,etc.)and 3%-5%increase on MAPE.