As an important technology for predictive maintenance, failure prognosis has attracted more and more attentions in recent years. Real-time reliability prediction is one effective solution to failure prognosis. Conside...As an important technology for predictive maintenance, failure prognosis has attracted more and more attentions in recent years. Real-time reliability prediction is one effective solution to failure prognosis. Considering a dynamic system that is composed of normal, deteriorating and unreliable components, this paper proposes an integrated approach to perform real-time reliability prediction for such a class of systems. For a deteriorating component, the degradation is modeled by a time-varying fault process which is a linear or approximately linear function of time. The behavior of an unreliable component is described by a random variable which has two possible values corresponding to the operating and malfunction conditions of this component. The whole proposed approach contains three algorithms. A modified interacting multiple model particle filter is adopted to estimate the dynamic system＇s state variables and the unmeasurable time-varying fault. An exponential smoothing algorithm named the Holt＇s method is used to predict the fault process. In the end, the system＇s reliability is predicted in real time by use of the Monte Carlo strategy. The proposed approach can effectively predict the impending failure of a dynamic system, which is verified by computer simulations based on a three-vessel water tank system.展开更多
提出一种基于动态指数平滑模型对网络流量负载进行预测的负载均衡协议DES-LBPTP(a Dynamic Exponential Smoothing Model-Based Load Balancing Protocol for Traffic Prediction in Ad Hoc Networks).该协议以MAC层接口队列中分组长度...提出一种基于动态指数平滑模型对网络流量负载进行预测的负载均衡协议DES-LBPTP(a Dynamic Exponential Smoothing Model-Based Load Balancing Protocol for Traffic Prediction in Ad Hoc Networks).该协议以MAC层接口队列中分组长度为流量负载的衡量依据,利用动态指数平滑预测模型对节点的流量负载进行预测,根据预测到的下一时刻流量负载状况,在节点出现拥塞丢包之前,提前实施路由更新机制,避免中间节点拥塞,以此提高网络性能.此外,该协议在中间节点根据流量负载状况有选择地转发RREQ、在目的节点采用延时应答也在一定程度上改善了网络性能.仿真结果与AODV协议相比,端到端时延降低约50%,归一化开销改善28%,分组投递率最大增长10.4%.展开更多
基金Supported by the National Basic Research Program of China (Grant Nos. 2009CB320602, 2010CB731800)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 60721003, 60736026)
文摘As an important technology for predictive maintenance, failure prognosis has attracted more and more attentions in recent years. Real-time reliability prediction is one effective solution to failure prognosis. Considering a dynamic system that is composed of normal, deteriorating and unreliable components, this paper proposes an integrated approach to perform real-time reliability prediction for such a class of systems. For a deteriorating component, the degradation is modeled by a time-varying fault process which is a linear or approximately linear function of time. The behavior of an unreliable component is described by a random variable which has two possible values corresponding to the operating and malfunction conditions of this component. The whole proposed approach contains three algorithms. A modified interacting multiple model particle filter is adopted to estimate the dynamic system＇s state variables and the unmeasurable time-varying fault. An exponential smoothing algorithm named the Holt＇s method is used to predict the fault process. In the end, the system＇s reliability is predicted in real time by use of the Monte Carlo strategy. The proposed approach can effectively predict the impending failure of a dynamic system, which is verified by computer simulations based on a three-vessel water tank system.
文摘提出一种基于动态指数平滑模型对网络流量负载进行预测的负载均衡协议DES-LBPTP(a Dynamic Exponential Smoothing Model-Based Load Balancing Protocol for Traffic Prediction in Ad Hoc Networks).该协议以MAC层接口队列中分组长度为流量负载的衡量依据,利用动态指数平滑预测模型对节点的流量负载进行预测,根据预测到的下一时刻流量负载状况,在节点出现拥塞丢包之前,提前实施路由更新机制,避免中间节点拥塞,以此提高网络性能.此外,该协议在中间节点根据流量负载状况有选择地转发RREQ、在目的节点采用延时应答也在一定程度上改善了网络性能.仿真结果与AODV协议相比,端到端时延降低约50%,归一化开销改善28%,分组投递率最大增长10.4%.
