STUDY ON ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK FORECASTING METHOD OF WATER CONSUMPTION PER HOUR

An artificial neural network (ANN) short term forecasting model of consumption per hour was built based on seasonality,trend and randomness of a city period of time water consumption series.Different hidden layer nodes,same inputs and forecasting data were selected to train and forecast and then the relative errors were compared so as to confirm the NN structure.A model was set up and used to forecast concretely by Matlab.It is tested by examples and compared with the result of time series trigonometric function analytical method.The result indicates that the prediction errors of NN are small and the velocity of forecasting is fast.It can completely meet the actual needs of the control and run of the water supply system.

Wind speed forecasting based on wavelet decomposition and wavelet neural networks optimized by the Cuckoo search algorithm

Wind speed forecasting is of great importance for wind farm management and plays an important role in grid integration. Wind speed is volatile in nature and therefore it is difficult to predict with a single model. In this study, three hybrid multi-step wind speed forecasting models are developed and compared — with each other and with earlier proposed wind speed forecasting models. The three models are based on wavelet decomposition(WD), the Cuckoo search(CS) optimization algorithm, and a wavelet neural network(WNN). They are referred to as CS-WD-ANN(artificial neural network), CS-WNN, and CS-WD-WNN, respectively. Wind speed data from two wind farms located in Shandong, eastern China, are used in this study. The simulation result indicates that CS-WD-WNN outperforms the other two models, with minimum statistical errors. Comparison with earlier models shows that CS-WD-WNN still performs best, with the smallest statistical errors. The employment of the CS optimization algorithm in the models shows improvement compared with the earlier models.

Hydrodynamic Performance Analysis of a Submersible Surface Ship and Resistance Forecasting Based on BP Neural Networks

This paper investigated the resistance performance of a submersible surface ship(SSS)in different working cases and scales to analyze the hydrodynamic performance characteristics of an SSS at different speeds and diving depths for engineering applications.First,a hydrostatic resistance performance test of the SSS was carried out in a towing tank.Second,the scale effect of the hydrodynamic pressure coefficient and wave-making resistance was analyzed.The differences between the three-dimensional real-scale ship resistance prediction and numerical methods were explained.Finally,the advantages of genetic algorithm(GA)and neural network were combined to predict the resistance of SSS.Back propagation neural network(BPNN)and GA-BPNN were utilized to predict the SSS resistance.We also studied neural network parameter optimization,including connection weights and thresholds,using K-fold cross-validation.The results showed that when a SSS sails at low and medium speeds,the influence of various underwater cases on resistance is not obvious,while at high speeds,the resistance of water surface cases increases sharply with an increase in speed.After improving the weights and thresholds through K-fold cross-validation and GA,the prediction results of BPNN have high consistency with the actual values.The research results can provide a theoretical reference for the optimal design of the resistance of SSS in practical applications.

Assessing the Forecasting of Comprehensive Loss Incurred by Typhoons:A Combined PCA and BP Neural Network Model

This paper develops a joint model utilizing the principal component analysis(PCA)and the back propagation(BP)neural network model optimized by the Levenberg Marquardt(LM)algorithm,and as an application of the joint model to investigate the damages caused by typhoons for a coastal province,Fujian Province,China in 2005-2015(latest).First,the PCA is applied to analyze comprehensively the relationship between hazard factors,hazard bearing factors and disaster factors.Then five integrated indices,overall disaster level,typhoon intensity,damaged condition of houses,medical rescue and self-rescue capability,are extracted through the PCA;Finally,the BP neural network model,which takes the principal component scores as input and is optimized by the LM algorithm,is implemented to forecast the comprehensive loss of typhoons.It is estimated that an average annual loss of 138.514 billion RMB occurred for 2005-2015,with a maximum loss of 215.582 in 2006 and a decreasing trend since 2010 though the typhoon intensity increases.The model was validated using three typhoon events and it is found that the error is less than 1%.These results provide information for the government to increase medical institutions and medical workers and for the communities to promote residents’self-rescue capability.

Forecasting increasing rate of power consumption based on immune genetic algorithm combined with neural network

Considering the factors affecting the increasing rate of power consumption, the BP neural network structure and the neural network forecasting model of the increasing rate of power consumption were established. Immune genetic algorithm was applied to optimizing the weight from input layer to hidden layer, from hidden layer to output layer, and the threshold value of neuron nodes in hidden and output layers. Finally, training the related data of the increasing rate of power consumption from 1980 to 2000 in China, a nonlinear network model between the increasing rate of power consumption and influencing factors was obtained. The model was adopted to forecasting the increasing rate of power consumption from 2001 to 2005, and the average absolute error ratio of forecasting results is 13.521 8%. Compared with the ordinary neural network optimized by genetic algorithm, the results show that this method has better forecasting accuracy and stability for forecasting the increasing rate of power consumption.

Neural Network Based on GA-BP Algorithm and its Application in the Protein Secondary Structure Prediction

The advantages and disadvantages of genetic algorithm and BP algorithm are introduced. A neural network based on GA-BP algorithm is proposed and applied in the prediction of protein secondary structure, which combines the advantages of BP and GA. The prediction and training on the neural network are made respectively based on 4 structure classifications of protein so as to get higher rate of predication---the highest prediction rate 75.65%,the average prediction rate 65.04%.

Artificial neural network based production forecasting for a hydrocarbon reservoir under water injection

As the conventional prediction methods for production of waterflooding reservoirs have some drawbacks, a production forecasting model based on artificial neural network was proposed, the simulation process by this method was presented, and some examples were illustrated. A workflow that involves a physics-based extraction of features was proposed for fluid production forecasting to improve the prediction effect. The Bayesian regularization algorithm was selected as the training algorithm of the model. This algorithm, although taking longer time, can better generalize oil, gas and water production data sets. The model was evaluated by calculating mean square error and determination coefficient, drawing error distribution histogram and the cross-plot between simulation data and verification data etc. The model structure was trained, validated and tested with 90% of the historical data, and blindly evaluated using the remaining. The predictive model consumes minimal information and computational cost and is capable of predicting fluid production rate with a coefficient of determination of more than 0.9, which has the simulation results consistent with the practical data.

A Hybrid Neural Network-based Approach for Forecasting Water Demand

Water is a vital resource.It supports a multitude of industries,civilizations,and agriculture.However,climatic conditions impact water availability,particularly in desert areas where the temperature is high,and rain is scarce.Therefore,it is crucial to forecast water demand to provide it to sectors either on regular or emergency days.The study aims to develop an accurate model to forecast daily water demand under the impact of climatic conditions.This forecasting is known as a multivariate time series because it uses both the historical data of water demand and climatic conditions to forecast the future.Focusing on the collected data of Jeddah city,Saudi Arabia in the period between 2004 and 2018,we develop a hybrid approach that uses Artificial Neural Networks(ANN)for forecasting and Particle Swarm Optimization algorithm(PSO)for tuning ANNs’hyperparameters.Based on the Root Mean Square Error(RMSE)metric,results show that the(PSO-ANN)is an accurate model for multivariate time series forecasting.Also,the first day is the most difficult day for prediction(highest error rate),while the second day is the easiest to predict(lowest error rate).Finally,correlation analysis shows that the dew point is the most climatic factor affecting water demand.

Prediction Model of Drilling Costs for Ultra-Deep Wells Based on GA-BP Neural Network

Drilling costs of ultra-deepwell is the significant part of development investment,and accurate prediction of drilling costs plays an important role in reasonable budgeting and overall control of development cost.In order to improve the prediction accuracy of ultra-deep well drilling costs,the item and the dominant factors of drilling costs in Tarim oilfield are analyzed.Then,those factors of drilling costs are separated into categorical variables and numerous variables.Finally,a BP neural networkmodel with drilling costs as the output is established,and hyper-parameters(initial weights and bias)of the BP neural network is optimized by genetic algorithm(GA).Through training and validation of themodel,a reliable prediction model of ultra-deep well drilling costs is achieved.The average relative error between prediction and actual values is 3.26%.Compared with other models,the root mean square error is reduced by 25.38%.The prediction results of the proposed model are reliable,and the model is efficient,which can provide supporting for the drilling costs control and budget planning of ultra-deep wells.

Mechanical Properties Prediction of the Mechanical Clinching Joints Based on Genetic Algorithm and BP Neural Network

For optimal design of mechanical clinching steel-aluminum joints, the back propagation （BP） neural network is used to research the mapping relationship between joining technique parameters including sheet thickness, sheet hardness, joint bottom diameter etc., and mechanical properties of shearing and peeling in order to investigate joining technology between various material plates in the steel-aluminum hybrid structure car body. Genetic algorithm （GA） is adopted to optimize the back-propagation neural network connection weights. The training and validating samples are made by the BTM Tog-L-Loc system with different technologic parameters. The training samples＇ parameters and the corresponding joints＇ mechanical properties are supplied to the artificial neural network （ANN） for training. The validating samples＇ experimental data is used for checking up the prediction outputs. The calculation results show that GA can improve the model＇s prediction precision and generalization ability of BP neural network. The comparative analysis between the experimental data and the prediction outputs shows that ANN prediction models after training can effectively predict the mechanical properties of mechanical clinching joints and prove the feasibility and reliability of the intelligent neural networks system when used in the mechanical properties prediction of mechanical clinching joints. The prediction results can be used for a reference in the design of mechanical clinching steel-aluminum joints.

Evolving Neural Networks Using an Improved Genetic Algorithm

A novel real coded improved genetic algorithm (GA) of training feed forward neural network is proposed to realize nonlinear system forecast. The improved GA employs a generation alternation model based the minimal generation gap (MGP) and blend crossover operators (BLX α). Compared with traditional GA implemented in binary number, the processing time of the improved GA is faster because coding and decoding are unnecessary. In addition, it needn t set parameters such as the probability value of crossove...

Fault Diagnosis Based on BP Neural Network Optimized by Beetle Algorithm

In the process of Wavelet Analysis,only the low-frequency signals are re-decomposed,and the high-frequency signals are no longer decomposed,resulting in a decrease in frequency resolution with increasing frequency.Therefore,in this paper,firstly,Wavelet Packet Decomposition is used for feature extraction of vibration signals,which makes up for the shortcomings of Wavelet Analysis in extracting fault features of nonlinear vibration signals,and different energy values in different frequency bands are obtained by Wavelet Packet Decomposition.The features are visualized by the K-Means clustering method,and the results show that the extracted energy features can accurately distinguish the different states of the bearing.Then a fault diagnosis model based on BP Neural Network optimized by Beetle Algo-rithm is proposed to identify the bearing faults.Compared with the Particle Swarm Algorithm,Beetle Algorithm can quickly find the error extreme value,which greatly reduces the training time of the model.At last,two experiments are conducted,which show that the accuracy of the model can reach more than 95%,and the model has a certain anti-interference ability.

An Image Encryption Algorithm Based on BP Neural Network and Hyperchaotic System

To reduce the bandwidth and storage resources of image information in communication transmission, and improve the secure communication of information. In this paper, an image compression and encryption algorithm based on fractional-order memristive hyperchaotic system and BP neural network is proposed. In this algorithm, the image pixel values are compressed by BP neural network, the chaotic sequences of the fractional-order memristive hyperchaotic system are used to diffuse the pixel values. The experimental simulation results indicate that the proposed algorithm not only can effectively compress and encrypt image, but also have better security features. Therefore, this work provides theoretical guidance and experimental basis for the safe transmission and storage of image information in practical communication.

Intelligent direct analysis of physical and mechanical parameters of tunnel surrounding rock based on adaptive immunity algorithm and BP neural network

Because of complexity and non-predictability of the tunnel surrounding rock, the problem with the determination of the physical and mechanical parameters of the surrounding rock has become a main obstacle to theoretical research and numerical analysis in tunnel engineering. During design, it is a frequent practice, therefore, to give recommended values by analog based on experience. It is a key point in current research to make use of the displacement back analytic method to comparatively accurately determine the parameters of the surrounding rock whereas artificial intelligence possesses an exceptionally strong capability of identifying, expressing and coping with such complex non-linear relationships. The parameters can be verified by searching the optimal network structure, using back analysis on measured data to search optimal parameters and performing direct computation of the obtained results. In the current paper, the direct analysis is performed with the biological emulation system and the software of Fast Lagrangian Analysis of Continua (FLAC3D. The high non-linearity, network reasoning and coupling ability of the neural network are employed. The output vector required of the training of the neural network is obtained with the numerical analysis software. And the overall space search is conducted by employing the Adaptive Immunity Algorithm. As a result, we are able to avoid the shortcoming that multiple parameters and optimized parameters are easy to fall into a local extremum. At the same time, the computing speed and efficiency are increased as well. Further, in the paper satisfactory conclusions are arrived at through the intelligent direct-back analysis on the monitored and measured data at the Erdaoya tunneling project. The results show that the physical and mechanical parameters obtained by the intelligent direct-back analysis proposed in the current paper have effectively improved the recommended values in the original prospecting data. This is of practical significance to the appraisal of stability and informationization design of the surrounding rock.

CNC Thermal Compensation Based on Mind Evolutionary Algorithm Optimized BP Neural Network

Thermal deformation error is one of the most important factors affecting the CNCs’ accuracy, so research is conducted on the temperature errors affecting CNCs’ machining accuracy;on the basis of analyzing the unpredictability and pre-maturing of the results of the genetic algorithm, as well as the slow speed of the training speed of the particle algorithm, a kind of Mind Evolutionary Algorithm optimized BP neural network featuring extremely strong global search capacity was proposed;type KVC850MA/2 five-axis CNC of Changzheng Lathe Factory was used as the research subject, and the Mind Evolutionary Algorithm optimized BP neural network algorithm was used for the establishment of the compensation model between temperature changes and the CNCs’ thermal deformation errors, as well as the realization method on hardware. The simulation results indicated that this method featured extremely high practical value.

Parameters Optimization of the Heating Furnace Control Systems Based on BP Neural Network Improved by Genetic Algorithm

The heating technological requirement of the conventional PID control is difficult to guarantee which based on the precise mathematical model,because the heating furnace for heating treatment with the big inertia,the pure time delay and nonlinear time-varying.Proposed one kind optimized variable method of PID controller based on the genetic algorithm with improved BP network that better realized the completely automatic intelligent control of the entire thermal process than the classics critical purporting(Z-N)method.A heating furnace for the object was simulated with MATLAB,simulation results show that the control system has the quicker response characteristic,the better dynamic characteristic and the quite stronger robustness,which has some promotional value for the control of industrial furnace.

Research on BP Neural Network Algorithm Based on Quasi- Newton Method

With more and more researches about improving BP algorithm, there are more improvement methods. The paper researches two improvement algorithms based on quasi-Newton method, DFP algorithm and L-BFGS algorithm. After fully analyzing the features of quasi- Newton methods, the paper improves BP neural network algorithm. And the adjustment is made for the problems in the improvement process. The paper makes empirical analysis and proves the effectiveness of BP neural network algorithm based on quasi-Newton method. The improved algorithms are compared with the traditional BP algorithm, which indicates that the imoroved BP algorithm is better.

Combining the genetic algorithms with artificial neural networks for optimization of board allocating

This paper introduced the Genetic Algorithms (GAs) and Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs), which have been widely used in optimization of allocating. The combination way of the two optimizing algorithms was used in board allocating of furniture production. In the experiment, the rectangular flake board of 3650 mm 1850 mm was used as raw material to allocate 100 sets of Table Bucked. The utilizing rate of the board reached 94.14 % and the calculating time was only 35 s. The experiment result proofed that the method by using the GA for optimizing the weights of the ANN can raise the utilizing rate of the board and can shorten the time of the design. At the same time, this method can simultaneously searched in many directions, thus greatly in-creasing the probability of finding a global optimum.

STUDY ON INJECTION AND IGNITION CONTROL OF GASOLINE ENGINE BASED ON BP NEURAL NETWORK

According to advantages of neural network and characteristics of operatingprocedures of engine, a new strategy is represented on the control of fuel injection and ignitiontiming of gasoline engine based on improved BP network algorithm. The optimum ignition advance angleand fuel injection pulse band of engine under different speed and load are tested for the samplestraining network, focusing on the study of the design method and procedure of BP neural network inengine injection and ignition control. The results show that artificial neural network technique canmeet the requirement of engine injection and ignition control. The method is feasible for improvingpower performance, economy and emission performances of gasoline engine.