Short-term load forecasting based on fuzzy neural network

The fuzzy neural network is applied to the short-term load forecasting. The fuzzy rules and fuzzy membership functions of the network are obtained through fuzzy neural network learming. Three inference algorithms, i.e. themultiplicative inference, the maximum inference and the minimum inference, are used for comparison. The learningalgorithms corresponding to the inference methods are derived from back-propagation algorithm. To validate the fuzzyneural network model, the network is used to Predict short-term load by compaing the network output against the realload data from a local power system supplying electricity to a large steel manufacturer. The experimental results aresatisfactory.

Study on Pests Forecasting Using the Method of Neural Network Based on Fuzzy Clustering

Aimed to the characters of pests forecast such as fuzziness, correlation, nonlinear and real-time as well as decline of generalization capacity of neural network in prediction with few observations, a method of pests forecasting using the method of neural network based on fuzzy clustering was proposed in this experiment. The simulation results demonstrated that the method was simple and practical and could forecast pests fast and accurately, particularly, the method could obtain good results with few samples and samples correlation.

Evaluation of hydraulic fracturing of horizontal wells in tight reservoirs based on the deep neural network with physical constraints

Accurate diagnosis of fracture geometry and conductivity is of great challenge due to the complex morphology of volumetric fracture network. In this study, a DNN (deep neural network) model was proposed to predict fracture parameters for the evaluation of the fracturing effects. Field experience and the law of fracture volume conservation were incorporated as physical constraints to improve the prediction accuracy due to small amount of data. A combined neural network was adopted to input both static geological and dynamic fracturing data. The structure of the DNN was optimized and the model was validated through k-fold cross-validation. Results indicate that this DNN model is capable of predicting the fracture parameters accurately with a low relative error of under 10% and good generalization ability. The adoptions of the combined neural network, physical constraints, and k-fold cross-validation improve the model performance. Specifically, the root-mean-square error (RMSE) of the model decreases by 71.9% and 56% respectively with the combined neural network as the input model and the consideration of physical constraints. The mean square error (MRE) of fracture parameters reduces by 75% because the k-fold cross-validation improves the rationality of data set dividing. The model based on the DNN with physical constraints proposed in this study provides foundations for the optimization of fracturing design and improves the efficiency of fracture diagnosis in tight oil and gas reservoirs.

Self-organizing fuzzy clustering neural network and application to electronic countermeasures effectiveness evaluation

A self-organizing fuzzy clustering neural network by combining the self-organizing Kohonen clustering network with the fuzzy theory is proposed. This network model is designed for the effectiveness evaluation of electronic countermeasures, which not only exerts the advantages of the fuzzy theory, but also has a good ability in machine learning and data analysis. The subjective value of sample versus class is computed by the fuzzy computing theory, and the classified results obtained by self-organizing learning of Kohonen neural network are represented on output layer. Meanwhile, the fuzzy competition learning algorithm keeps the similar information between samples and overcomes the disadvantages of neural network which has fewer samples. The simulation result indicates that the proposed algorithm is feasible and effective.

Short-Term Electricity Price Forecasting Using a Combination of Neural Networks and Fuzzy Inference

This paper presents an artificial neural network, ANN, based approach for estimating short-term wholesale electricity prices using past price and demand data. The objective is to utilize the piecewise continuous na-ture of electricity prices on the time domain by clustering the input data into time ranges where the variation trends are maintained. Due to the imprecise nature of cluster boundaries a fuzzy inference technique is em-ployed to handle data that lies at the intersections. As a necessary step in forecasting prices the anticipated electricity demand at the target time is estimated first using a separate ANN. The Australian New-South Wales electricity market data was used to test the system. The developed system shows considerable im-provement in performance compared with approaches that regard price data as a single continuous time se-ries, achieving MAPE of less than 2% for hours with steady prices and 8% for the clusters covering time pe-riods with price spikes.

Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) forecasting using time series data: A fuzzy-entropy-neuro based expert system

This study presents a model to forecast the Indian summer monsoon rainfall（ISMR）（June-September）based on monthly and seasonal time scales. The ISMR time series data sets are classified into two parts for modeling purposes, viz.,（1） training data set（1871-1960）, and（2） testing data set（1961-2014）.Statistical analyzes reflect the dynamic nature of the ISMR, which couldn＇t be predicted efficiently by statistical and mathematical based models. Therefore, this study suggests the usage of three techniques,viz., fuzzy set, entropy and artificial neural network（ANN）. Based on these techniques, a novel ISMR time series forecasting model is designed to deal with the dynamic nature of the ISMR. This model is verified and validated with training and testing data sets. Various statistical analyzes and comparison studies demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed model.

Flatness Control Based on Dynamic Effective Matrix for Cold Strip Mills

Steel strips are the main of steel products and flatness is an important quality indicator of steel strips. Flatness control is the key and highly difficult technique of strip mills. The bottle-neck restricting the improvement of flatness control techniques is that the research on flatness theories and control mathematic models is not in accordance with the requirement of technique developments. To build a simple, rapid and accurate explicit formulation control model has become an urgent need for the development of flatness control technique. This paper puts forward the conception of dynamic effective matrix based on the effective matrix method for flatness control proposed by the authors under the consideration of the influence of the change of parameters in roiling processes on the effective matrix, and the concept is validated by industrial productions. Three methods of the effective matrix generation are induced： the calculation method based on the flatness prediction model; the calculation method based on the data excavation in rolling processes and the direct calculation method based on the network model. A fuzzy neural network effective matrix model is built based on the clusters, and then the network structure is optimized and the high-speed-calculation problem of the dynamic effective matrix is solved. The flatness control scheme for cold strip mills is proposed based on the dynamic effective matrix. On stand 5 of the 1 220 mm five-stand 4-high cold strip tandem mill, the industrial experiment with the control methods of tilting roll and bending roll is done by the control scheme of the static effective matrix and the dynamic effective matrix, respectively. The experiment result proves that the control effect of the dynamic effective matrix is much better than that of the static effective matrix. This paper proposes a new idea and method for the dynamic flatness control in the rolling processes of cold strip mills and develops the theory and model of the flatness control effective matrix method.

基于VMD-FE-CNN-BiLSTM的短期光伏发电功率预测

为提高光伏功率的预测精度,提出一种变分模态分解(VMD)、模糊熵(FE)、卷积神经网络(CNN)和双向长短期记忆神经网络(BiLSTM)的光伏功率组合预测模型。该方法首先采用VMD将原始光伏序列数据分解成多个子序列,从而减少随机波动分量和噪声干扰对预测模型的影响,通过FE对每个子序列进行重组,使用一维CNN的局部连接及权值共享提取不同分量的特征,将CNN输出的特征融合并输入到BiLSTM模型中;利用BiLSTM模型建立历史数据之间的时间特征关系,得到光伏发电功率预测结果。与BiLSTM、CNN-BiLSTM、EEMD-CNN-BiLSTM、VMD-CNN-BiLSTM这4种模型进行比较,该文提出的VMD-FE-CNN-BiLSTM模型在光伏发电功率预测中具有较高的精确度和稳定性,满足光伏发电短期预测的要求。

基于FCM-LSTM的光热发电出力短期预测

对光热电站的出力进行短期预测,可以有效应对太阳能随机性和波动性带来的影响,为电网调度做好准备.该文以青海某光热电站为例,首先使用模糊C均值聚类算法对预处理后的实验数据进行分类,然后通过分析不同聚类类型下出力和气象数据中各因子间的关联程度,充分挖掘出数据间的关系,确定不同类型预测模型的输入变量,进而构建出不同类别下的长短期记忆神经网络预测模型.结果表明,与传统长短期记忆神经网络模型、BP神经网络模型、支持向量机模型和随机森林模型的预测结果相比,基于模糊C均值聚类的长短期记忆神经网络预测模型效果良好,大幅减少了预测误差,验证了该预测模型的有效性.

基于深度模糊神经网络的太阳总辐射预测研究

提出一种基于深度模糊神经网络的太阳总辐射预测模型。首先利用Pearson相关系数分析太阳总辐射关键影响因素,其次利用深度学习多隐含层所具有的特征提取优势将模糊神经网络模块重复连接,构建深度模糊神经网络模型,并使用蝗虫优化算法对其中心值和宽度进行优化。利用所提太阳总辐射预测模型对5个气象站点的相关数据进行仿真实验,并对结果进行分析。仿真结果表明:所提预测模型较其他模型具有较高的预测精度,验证了模型的有效性,可满足无辐射监测站点太阳总辐射预测的需要。

基于有效性分析的自组织模糊神经网络建模方法

提出了一种基于有效性分析的自组织模糊神经网络(self-organizingfuzzyneural network based on effectiveness analysis, SOEFNN)建模方法。首先,提出了一种针对模糊规则的有效性评价指标,利用样本与规则层输出之间的映射关系进行网络模型的有效性分析,通过累积触发的方式实现相应模糊规则的增加或删减,使网络模型在能够处理复杂非线性问题的同时降低其冗余性,使模型更为紧凑。采用梯度下降算法对网络模型进行训练。然后,对所提出的SOEFNN模型进行非线性系统仿真实验和污水处理过程中的出水生化需氧量预测建模,并与其他自组织模糊神经网络模型进行对比。仿真结果表明,所提出的SOEFNN模型能够很好地实现结构和参数的自适应调整,并且具有较好的逼近能力。

计及温度累积效应的智能电网负荷预测算法

针对温度累积效应对负荷变化造成的影响,提出了一种计及温度累积效应的智能电网负荷预测算法。将持续高温对电网负荷的影响计入预测模型中,并利用模块化神经网络保证了对温度累积效应学习的独立性和准确性。由三个子网络构成多模块神经网络的第一层,以温度、时间及负荷特征为输入参数,所得负荷预测的准确度可达98.13%,且误差较修正前降低了28.63%。结果表明,所提算法具有更高的预测准确性和运行效率。

基于气象因子Fuzzy模糊处理的短期电力负荷预测

电力短期负荷预测受各种气象因素的影响,这导致短期电力负荷预测准确度不高。使用模糊逻辑处理温度、湿度和风速的三种影响因素,把它们转化为能被BP神经网络输入识别的具体的数据。该网络经过训练后,得到合适的权值。利用该模糊神经网络,测试电力日负荷数据,预测的平均误差约在±1.69%。

利用卷积神经网络提高天气短期气温预报效果

为提高天津地区温度精细化预报的准确性,本文基于欧洲中期天气预报中心综合预报系统ECMWF-IFS、中国气象局全球同化预报系统CMA-GFS模式数据及天津259个区域自动站的逐小时气温实况数据,构建了一种基于U-Net编解码器结构的3D卷积神经网络气温预报模型,能实现天津地区24 h内逐小时气温的网格预报。采用二分搜索的方式对模型众多超参数进行调节,通过148组试验训练得到最优模型,测试集误差为1.226℃。采用多种指标对模型进行检验,结果表明,模型的预报误差整体低于原数值模式,特别是对天津市中南部(含中心城区)和东部沿海有较好的订正效果;其温度日变化预报特征更接近实况,能有效改善原数值模式的日变化预报误差,且模型表现出更强的误差稳定性。

Forecasting Damage Mechanics By Deep Learning

We in this paper exploit time series algorithm based deep learning in forecasting damage mechanics problems.The methodologies that are able to work accurately for less computational and resolving attempts are a significant demand nowadays.Relied on learning an amount of information from given data,the long short-term memory(LSTM)method and multi-layer neural networks(MNN)method are applied to predict solutions.Numerical examples are implemented for predicting fracture growth rates of L-shape concrete specimen under load ratio,single-edge-notched beam forced by 4-point shear and hydraulic fracturing in permeable porous media problems such as storage-toughness fracture regime and fracture-height growth in Marcellus shale.The predicted results by deep learning algorithms are well-agreed with experimental data.

考虑时滞效应的模糊主动隔振系统的设计与性能

为了更好地实现精密仪器的振动控制,提出基于考虑时滞效应的模糊主动控制隔振系统。该系统采用神经网络,根据当前时刻模糊控制器的输出以及平台的输出数据,实时预测下一时刻平台的运动状态,提前施加作动力对平台进行主动控制。仿真实验表明,神经网络的预测较为准确,可靠度较高且设计方案合理,能有效预测实时信号并且抑制信号的振荡。系统融合了神经网络对时滞效应的补偿作用和模糊控制器对不确定性的处理能力,可实现精密仪器振动的智能化控制。

T区块三叠系储层措施差异性研究及参数优化

T区块储层非均质性较强,局部微裂缝发育,水淹井矛盾突出,且区域多叠系叠加发育,治理难度大。结合储层物性、生产动态等资料,采用BP神经网络和主成分分析法综合确定了影响措施效果的主控因素,并优化压裂参数。该工艺增加了储层有效改造体积,提高了措施增油量和有效率。

基于最小二乘状态估计和模糊神经的中长期负荷预测

可靠准确的中长期电力负荷预测可以使电力公司和发电公司更好地分配配电网络,并有助于在可再生能源并网时提高对电力系统的保护稳定性。为此,提出一种基于加权最小二乘状态估计和模糊神经网络的中长期电力负荷预测方案。基于最小二乘状态估计得到的潮流信息和来自神经网络得到的预测负荷作为模糊神经网络的输入,借由模糊神经网络生成高质量的中长期电力负荷预测结果,最后在IEEE 30总线系统上进行验证和评估。试验结果表明,所提方案可以实现平均绝对百分比误差低于2.55%,比单独的最小二乘状态估计法和模糊神经网络法拥有更低的平均绝对百分比误差。

Forecasting on Crude Palm Oil Prices Using Artificial Intelligence Approaches

An accurate prediction of crude palm oil (CPO) prices is important especially when investors deal with ever-increasing risks and uncertainties in the future. Therefore, the applicability of the forecasting approaches in predicting the CPO prices is becoming the matter into concerns. In this study, two artificial intelligence approaches, has been used namely artificial neural network (ANN) and adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system (ANFIS). We employed in-sample forecasting on daily free-on-board CPO prices in Malaysia and the series data stretching from a period of January first, 2004 to the end of December 2011. The predictability power of the artificial intelligence approaches was also made in regard with the statistical forecasting approach such as the autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average (ARFIMA) model. The general findings demonstrated that the ANN model is superior compared to the ANFIS and ARFIMA models in predicting the CPO prices.

一种基于FCM的网络意见领袖传播效能评价方法

为了对网络意见领袖传播效能进行定量评价,本文通过构建其评价指标体系,提出了一种基于模糊C-均值聚类的网络意见领袖传播效能评价方法;并根据网络舆情实际,通过对20位网络意见领袖实证研究,将其传播效能S≥0.7定义为特别关注级,0.5≤S<0.7定义为关注级,S<0.5定义为普通级.研究结果表明,特别关注级的网络意见领袖有5位,关注级的网络意见领袖有8位,普通级的网络意见领袖有7位,分别占网络意见领袖总数的25%、40%、35%;对于特别关注级的网络意见领袖,管理部门应及时关注其动态,对其进行正面引导,让其主动担负起传播社会主义核心价值观、弘扬中华优秀传统文化、传播正能量的重任.