Credit Risk Model Taking Account of Inflation and Its Contribution to Macroeconomic Discussion on Effect of Inflation on Output Growth

We use Extended Merton model(EMM)for estimating the firm’s credit risks in the presence of inflation.We show quantitatively that inflation is an influential factor making either a benign or adverse effect on the firm’s survival,supporting at the microeconomic level New Keynesian findings of the nonlinear inflation effect on output growth.Lower inflation increasing the firm’s expected rate of return can raise its mean year returns and decrease its default probability.Higher inflation,decreasing the expected rate return,makes the opposite effect.The magnitude of the adverse effect depends on the firm strength:for a steady firm,this effect is small,whereas for a weaker firm,it can be fatal.EMM is the only model taking account of inflation.It can be useful for banks or insurance companies estimating credit risks of commercial borrowers over the debt maturity,and for the firm’s management planning long-term business operations.

Can Monetary Policy Undo Asset-freezing Sanctions?

This article investigates the macroeconomic consequences of foreign asset-freezing sanctions,a tool utilized by several Western nations amid recent geopolitical tensions.Specifically,it examines the repercussions of such sanctions on open economies,finding that they may experience a sharp recession and currency crisis.To quantify the impact,we develop a new Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with financial frictions and an asset-freezing channel for an open economy.We also calibrate our model to capture the unique structures of the Russian economy.The quantitative analysis of the model demonstrates that an abrupt asset-freezing sanction would lead to large output losses and high inflation increases.Our counterfactual examination reveals that higher elasticity of import substitution and lower elasticity of export substitution could alleviate the impact of foreign sanctions,whereas more aggressive monetary policy may have positive but limited stabilization effects.Notably,the monetary authority must navigate a trade-off between stabilizing output and managing inflation resulting from the cash-in-advance channel.

Productivity Shocks and Monetary Policy in a Two-Country Model

In this paper, we examine the effects of foreign productivity shocks on monetary policy in a symmetric open economy. Our two-country model incorporates the New Keynesian features of price stickiness and monopolistic competition based on the cost channel of Ravenna and Walsh （2006）. In particular, in response to asymmetric productivity shocks, firms in one country achieve a more efficient level of production than those in another economy. Because the terms of trade are directly affected by changes in both economies＇ output levels, international trade creates a transmission channel for inflation dynamics in which a deflationary spiral in foreign producer prices reduces domestic output. When there is a decline in economic activity, the monetary authority should react to this adverse situation by lowering the key interest rate. The impulse response function from the model shows that a productivity shock can cause a real depreciation of the exchange rate when economies are closely integrated through international trade.