Predicting Potential Distribution of Tibetan Spruce (Picea smithiana) in Qomolangma (Mount Everest) National Nature Preserve Using Maximum Entropy Niche-based Model

Tibetan spruce (Picea smithiana) is an endemic species of the Himalayas,and it distributes only in a re-stricted area with very low number.To address the lack of detailed distributional information,we used maximum en-tropy (Maxent) niche-based model to predict the species' potential distribution from limited occurrence-only records.The location data of P.smithiana,relative bioclimatic variables,vegetation data,digital elevation model (DEM),and the derived data were analyzed in Maxent.The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was applied to assess the prediction accuracy.The Maxent jackknife test was performed to quantify the training gains from data layers and the response of P.smithiana distribution to four typical environmental variables was analyzed.Results show that the model performs well at the regional scale.There is a potential for continued expansion of P.smithiana population numbers and distribution in China.P.smithiana potentially distributes in the lower reaches of Gyirong Zangbo and Poiqu rivers in Gyirong and Nyalam counties in Qomolangma (Mount Everest) National Nature Preserve (QNNP),China.The species prefers warm temperate climate in mountain area and mainly distributes in needle-leaved evergreen closed to open forest and mixed forest along the river valley at relatively low altitudes of about 2000-3000 m.Model simulations suggest that distribution patterns of rare species with few species numbers can be well predicted by Max-ent.

Revisiting Sustainable Development of Dry Valleys in Hengduan Mountains Region

Dry valleys are a striking geographic landscape in Hengduan Mountains Region and are characterized by low rainfall, desert type of vegetation and fragile environment. Past efforts and resources have been concentrated mainly on rehabilitation of degraded ecosystem and fragile environment, particularly reforestation, while socio-economic development has been largely overlooked. Despite successes in pocket areas, the overall trend of unsustainability and environmental deterioration are continuing. It is important to understand that uplift of the Tibetan Plateau is the root cause of development of dry valleys, and development and formation of dry valleys is a natural process. Human intervention has played a secondary role in development of dry valleys and degradation of dry valleys though human intervention in many cases has speeded up environmental degradation of the dry valleys. It is important to understand that dry valleys are climatic enclaves and an integrated approach that combines rehabilitation of degraded ecosystems and socio-economic development should be adopted if the overall goal of sustainable development of dry valleys is to be achieved. Promotion of niche-based cash crops, rural energy including hydropower, solar energy, biogas and fuelwood plantation is recommended as the priority activities.

Functional trait and community phylogenetic analyses reveal environmental filtering as the major determinant of assembly of tropical forest tree communities in the Western Ghats biodiversity hotspot in India

Background: Improved understanding of the processes shaping the assembly of tropical tree communities is crucial for gaining insights into the evolution of forest communities and biological diversity. The climate is thought to be the first order determinant of abundance and distribution patterns of tree species with contrasting traits such as evergreen and deciduous leaf phenology. However, the relative role of neutral, and niche-based processes in the evolution of these patterns remain poorly understood.Methods: Here, we perform an integrated analysis of the data on tree species abundance, functional traits and community phylogeny from a network of 96 forest plots, each 1 ha in size, distributed along a broad environmental gradient in the central Western Ghats, India. Then, we determine the relative importance of various process in assembly and structuring of tropical forest communities with evergreen and deciduous leaf phenology.Results: The deciduous leaf phenological trait has repeatedly evolved among multiple distantly related lineages. Tree communities in dry deciduous forests were phylogenetically clustered and showed a low range and variance of functional traits related to light harvesting, reproduction, and growth suggesting niche-based processes such as environmental filtering play a vital role in the assembly of tree communities in these forests. The external factors such as human-mediated disturbance also significantly, but to a lesser extent, influences the species and phylogenetic turnover.Conclusions: These findings revealed that the environmental filtering plays a significant role in assembly of tree communities in the biologically diverse tropical forests in the Western Ghats biodiversity hotspot.

Using potential distributions to explore environmental correlates of bat species richness in southern Africa： Effects of model selection and taxonomy

We tested the prediction that at coarse spatial scales, variables associated with climate, energy, and productivity hy- potheses should be better predictor（s） of bat species richness than those associated with environmental heterogeneity. Distribution ranges of 64 bat species were estimated with niche-based models informed by 3629 verified museum specimens. The influence of environmental correlates on bat richness was assessed using ordinary least squares regression （OLS）, simultaneous autoregressive models （SAR）, conditional autoregressive models （CAR）, spatial eigenvector-based filtering models （SEVM）, and Classification and Regression Trees （CART）. To test the assumption of stationarity, Geographically Weighted Regression （GWR） was used. Bat species richness was highest in the eastern parts of southern Africa, particularly in central Zimbabwe and along the western border of Mozambique. We found support for the predictions of both the habitat heterogeneity and climate/productivity/energy hypothe- ses, and as we expected, support varied among bat families and model selection. Richness patterns and predictors of Miniopteridae and Pteropodidae clearly differed from those of other bat families. Altitude range was the only independent variable that was sig- nificant in all models and it was most often the best predictor of bat richness. Standard coefficients of SAR and CAR models were similar to those of OLS models, while those of SEVM models differed. Although GWR indicated that the assumption of stationa- rity was violated, the CART analysis corroborated the findings of the curve-fitting models. Our results identify where additional data on current species ranges, and future conservation action and ecological work are needed.