面向BORO和BOPS的零售商退货策略与渠道决策

消费者体验需求的提升促使零售商不断探索新渠道模式,以提高原有实体店效益的同时优化线上经营策略。本文分别考虑传统BORO(buy online and return online)和开通BOPS(buy online and pickup in store)两种渠道情形,构建零售商针对消费者线上购买并在线上或线下退款的差异化退货策略利润模型,分析两种渠道情形下的最优定价和最优退货策略,进而考虑BOPS渠道的溢出效应,分析零售商在相同退货策略下是否应该开通BOPS渠道。结果表明:(1)在两种情形下,随着线下商店数量的增多,零售商均会倾向于在低开店成本下选择全额退款策略,倾向于在高开店成本下选择部分退款策略;(2)在同渠道情形下,全额退款策略的定价始终低于部分退款策略。在同退货策略下,BOPS情形下的定价始终低于BORO情形;(3)高溢出效应和多商店数量都促使零售商选择开通BOPS渠道,但商店数量决定了BOPS线下麻烦成本规模因子对零售商开通BOPS渠道起推动还是抑制作用。本文为既定商店数量下多渠道零售商退货策略与渠道选择提供了决策支持。

药品集采政策与药企研发行为

药品集采政策会加剧医药行业竞争,从而影响医药企业的研发投入。基于药品集采前后三年医药企业的研发专利样本,针对药品集采政策对药企研发行为影响的回归结果表明,集采政策的实施会增加医药企业的研发专利数量,但医药企业所面临的转换成本和集采的预期市场收益,会影响医药企业的研发行为,并进一步影响医药企业的创新效率。因此,要降低医药行业的制度成本,加强医药企业之间的分工合作和并购重组,提升医药企业的创新效率,从而加快完善药品集中采购制度和推动健康中国的政策落实。

乡村振兴背景下大学生返乡创业政策评估与优化策略

大学生返乡创业是推进乡村振兴战略、缓解大学生就业压力的重要途径。基于大学生返乡创业政策文本,通过构建政策工具、发展阶段、利益相关主体的三维框架进行政策评估。研究发现,大学生返乡创业已经吸引了政府的持续关注和高度重视,环境型和供给型政策工具使用过度,而需求型政策工具使用不足;政策措施主要关注初创阶段和成长阶段,较少涉及成熟阶段;政策注意力主要集中在返乡创业者、返乡创业企业等核心利益主体上,较少关注金融机构、高校等次要利益主体。基于此,建议深度优化政策工具整体结构,增加需求型政策供给;强化政策措施与返乡创业生命周期匹配度,加大成熟期政策支持力度;协调兼顾各个参与主体的利益,推动金融机构、高校等利益相关主体为大学生返乡创业提供支持。

The Difficulties and Countermeasures of Migrant Workers Returning Home to Start Business of Shaanxi

The paper discloses the current situation of migrant workers returning home to start business by making a survey of the total number of returning migrant workers. The paper also points out the main difficulties the migrant workers who returning home to start business facing. The first is the old fashioned and backward concepts of development in some local departments; the second is lacking of powerful supports of policies; the third is the still bad environment to start business; the fourth is the lower qualities of people who are going to start business. Based on these situations, the official policies are put forward to encourage and support migrant workers to return home to start business. Such as strategies activating migrant workers to return home to start business should be positively operated; the management services should be further standardized and the environment should be perfected for starting business; the programs and items to start business by migrant workers returning home should be guided and favored; beneficial tax policies should be improved further; financial services should be further perfected; the land using problems of migrant workers should be firstly solved; the demonstration project of migrant workers returning back to start business should be continuously carried on; the organizing and leading jobs for starting business of migrant workers should be further strengthened.

Return Contract of Supply Chain with Fuzzy Continuous Demand

In a two-stage supply chain composed of one supplier and one retailer,the supply chain coordination mechanism in a fuzzy continuous demand environment is researched.A positive triangular fuzzy number is used to model the external market demand.Using the method of fuzzy cut sets theory,both fuzzy decentralized and centralized decision-making processes are analyzed,and another model of fuzzy return contract is proposed to help coordinate such supply chain.It is shown that in fuzzy environment there exists a unique solution of the retailer＇s optimal order quantity,the double marginalization problem can be solved by providing different tactics for wholesale pricing and return pricing,and the fuzzy expected profit of each actor can be expected to improve in the return contract.Finally,a numerical example is given to illustrate the models and the solution-seeking process.

Bayesian analysis of time‑varying interactions between stock returns and foreign equity flows

This study discusses the trading behavior of foreign investors with respect to economic uncertainty in the South Korean stock market from a time-varying perspective.We employ a news-based measure of economic uncertainty along with the model of time-varying parameter vector autoregression with stochastic volatility.The empirical analysis reveals several new findings about foreign investors’trading behaviors.First,we find evidence that positive feedback trading often appears during periods of high economic uncertainty,whereas negative feedback trading is exclusively observable during periods of low economic uncertainty.Second,the foreign investors’feedback trading appears mostly to be well-timed and often leads the time-varying economic uncertainty except in periods of global crises.Third,lagged negative(positive)response of net flows to economic uncertainty is found to be coupled with lagged positive(negative)feedback trading.Fourth,the study documents an asymmetric response of foreign investors with regard to negative and positive shocks of economic uncertainty.Specifically,we find that they instantly turn to positive feedback trading after a negative contemporaneous response of net flows to shocks of economic uncertainty.In contrast,they move slowly toward negative feedback trading after a positive response of net flows to uncertainty shocks.

Monetary Policy and Profitability of Commercial Banks in Uganda

Background: Economic theory suggests that monetary policy through interest rates affects bank profitability. There is limited empirical evidence on the relationship between monetary policy and profitability of commercial banks in Uganda. Objective: This study seeks to examine the effect of monetary policy on the profitability of commercial banks in Uganda. Methodology: The study adopts a causal relationship research design. Data, covering 9 years from 2010-2018, was collected from all the registered commercial banks which were in operation over the study period. Various monetary policy variables are included in the empirical model as predictor variables. Return on Assets is used as a measure of bank profitability. A dynamic two-step System Generalized Method of Moments panel estimator is applied to estimate the empirical model. Findings: Estimates show that monetary policy in terms of its link to the lending rate has a significant causal effect on Return on Assets, suggesting that interest rate changes predict bank profitability of commercial banks in Uganda. Further, results show that a rise in core inflation has a significant negative causal effect on the banks’ profitability and that there is a significant lagged effect of Return on Assets. The 91-day treasury bill rate and money supply were insignificant in predicting bank profitability. Originality: Unlike previous related studies which have focused on major advanced economies and a limited number of studies which have considered only a few developing countries like Nigeria and Kenya, the current study provides empirical evidence on the link between monetary policy and commercial bank profitability in Uganda. Practical Implications: Policy makers in the financial sector may use the study results as a basis of implementation of appropriate monetary policy actions that enhance the profitability of Uganda’s commercial banks. For instance, the central bank should promote low and stable core inflation in order to enhance bank profitability, and should ensure that the monetary policy transmission to interest rates is efficient.

Empirical Analysis of the Market Effects of China＇s Listed—— Company＇s Dividend Policy ——Empirical Evidences from Shanghai Stock Exchange from 2004 to 2005

Dividend policy is one of the three core contents of financial management in listed companies. On one hand, it is the extension of financial and investment activities; on the other hand, appropriate dividend policy can not only set up a good company reputation, but also arouse enthusiasm of many investors to continue invest in this company, consequently acquire long and stable development opportunities and conditions. In this paper, the author has put forward some suggestions in order to solve the problems which existing in Chinese listed companies＇ dividend policies based on the result of positive test. Firstly, optimize the structure of equity title and perfect the corporate governance. Secondly, to establish wholesome shareholder protection mechanism, and also it is important measure for investors, especially medium and small investors to protect their rights and interests. According to the present situation of Chinese stock market, the authors consider we can protect the shareholder＇s benefits by carrying out cumulative vote system, establishing hortative derive lawsuit system, perfecting civil compensation system and establishing shareholder voting removing system and so on. Thirdly, the establishment of listed companies＇ dividend policy and the release of message should be standardized for the sake of good relationship of melon-cutting and corporation＇s refinancing plan. Finally, listed companies＇ dividend policy can be optimized by modifying and perfecting stock dividend distribution mode of accounting management, perfecting exit mechanism of listed companies.

Transatlantic Policy Coordination on China and Its Limitations

With the continued rise of China and the transformation of EU and US policies toward China, the China factor has been increasingly important in transatlantic relations and has become a major concern for both sides. Despite some convergence in European and American perceptions and policies toward China, the structural differences between the two mean that policy coordination is more likely to result in a tactical, issue-based coalition rather than a strategic alliance against China.

营商环境能提升返乡创业企业发展质量吗?

实现乡村振兴,改善农村地区营商环境至关重要。良好的营商环境能吸引大批劳动力返乡创业,同时也有助于培育高质量的返乡创业企业。基于2019年全国2139家返乡创业企业调查数据研究营商环境对返乡创业企业发展质量的影响及其作用机制,研究表明:良好的营商环境能显著提升返乡创业企业发展质量;机制分析发现,良好的营商环境通过企业家社会关系网络、企业数字化经营能力来提升返乡创业企业发展质量;异质性分析发现,对发展型返乡创业企业、我国中西部地区和第二产业中的返乡创业企业以及中小型返乡创业企业而言,良好的营商环境更有助于提升其发展质量。因此,建议地方政府切实加大政策扶持力度,推动营商环境全面优化,做好科学规划、分类指导,落实完善差别化扶持政策,精准发力;同时结合企业规模、产业层次、价值类型特点制定针对性重点扶持政策,助推返乡创业企业高质量发展。

返乡创业试点政策对共同富裕的影响研究

共同富裕是社会主义的本质要求,也是全体人民的共同期盼。文章基于2010—2020年全国1 838个县级行政区的面板数据,采用多时点双重差分模型研究返乡创业试点政策对共同富裕的影响及作用机制。文章研究结果表明,返乡创业试点政策能够显著促进县域共同富裕指数提高,经平行趋势检验、安慰剂检验和排除竞争性政策干扰、缩尾处理、PSM-DID检验等方法之后,此结论依然成立。该试点政策的执行对共同富裕的影响在西部地区最大,中部地区次之,而在东部地区则没有表现出显著影响。此外,返乡创业试点政策对共同富裕产生的作用是通过促进产业集聚、提升人力资本水平、加快技术创新和完善基础设施体现出来的。据此本文提出建议,政府要统筹推广返乡创业试点政策,推动产业高质量发展,培育内生动力,深化技术创新改革,完善基本公共服务体系。

乡村振兴背景下大学生返乡创业路径探析

乡村振兴是我国现阶段实施的重要战略之一,目的是为了推进乡村产业与人才结构改革,促进乡村经济可持续发展,加速城乡一体化进程。近年来,大学生返乡创业在乡村振兴中崭露头角,不仅引领着农村发展的新风貌,也缓解了城市大学生就业压力。针对大学生返乡创业面临的困境,从政府、社会、高校三个层面深入研究,准确把握现实问题,探索适合大学生回乡创业的有效途径。通过加强政策支持、建设社会支持体系、优化高校创业教育体系等多维度举措,全面激发大学生参与乡村产业发展的热情,为乡村振兴注入新的活力,进一步推动乡村发展。

返乡创业试点政策对长江经济带农村居民收入的影响

返乡创业试点政策的实施促进了外出农民的返乡创业,也为缓解就业压力、提高农民收入提供了重要路径。本文基于长江经济带2010—2021年县域面板数据,利用双重差分法研究了返乡创业试点政策对农村居民收入的影响。研究发现:返乡创业试点政策显著提升了长江经济带农村居民收入;非农就业水平在返乡创业试点政策对农村居民收入的影响中起到了中介作用;返乡创业试点政策的收入提升效应具有区域异质性,长江经济带下游地区政策效应最明显。建议各地区不断加强对返乡农民的创业支持和政策引导,积极推动长江经济带上中下游协调发展,因地制宜提高不同地区的要素吸引力,充分利用返乡创业政策带动农村居民致富并推动城乡均衡发展。

公共教育扩张政策与教育收益率的城乡差异

基于2019年中国家庭收入调查数据,通过教育收益率的因果性和异质性测量,实证评估了公共教育扩张政策的个体增收效应和收入分配效应。研究结果如下:(1)利用描述性统计法分析发现,公共教育扩张政策对城镇劳动力受教育程度的提升作用高于农村,因而教育功能具有“城市偏向型”的特征;(2)利用工具变量法纠正内生性问题后,发现公共教育扩张政策对非农户籍具有更强的个体增收效应,农村劳动力的教育收益率高于城镇,大学教育收益率高于义务教育阶段,揭示了公共教育扩张政策的个体增收效应具有“农村导向型”的特征;(3)利用无条件分位数回归及其处理效应模型发现,义务教育改革和高校扩招具有缩小城乡劳动力组内工资收入差距的收入分配功能。

借贷便利创新工具、资产收益率与商业银行信用风险

本文基于2014—2021年中国203家银行的非平衡面板数据,考察借贷便利创新工具对商业银行信用风险的影响。实证分析发现:借贷便利创新操作会显著增加商业银行信用风险,该结论在考虑内生性问题以及进行一系列稳健性检验后依然成立。异质性检验显示,这一政策效应在区域性商业银行、规模较小的商业银行中表现得更为明显。中介效应模型检验表明,借贷便利创新工具通过抑制商业银行资产收益率的渠道增加信用风险。调节效应模型检验结果说明,资本监管力度和银行家乐观度的提高均会减弱借贷便利创新工具对商业银行信用风险的加剧效应。该研究结论对于中央银行适时适量地进行借贷便利操作和商业银行信用风险管理防控具有借鉴意义。

环境引力还是政策推力:农民工返乡创业动因比较研究——基于政策效力与PSR环境评价模型的实证分析

促进农民工返乡创业,是全面推进乡村振兴,实现城乡共同富裕的重要举措。为回应当前将返乡创业政策要素纳入环境要素进行同质性分析,无法厘清“创业政策”与客观“创业环境”对农民工返乡创业行为效应差异的研究局限,本文基于2018年中国劳动力动态调查(CLDS)、各省统计年鉴数据以及22个省(区、市)农民工返乡创业政策302个文本(2008—2017年),通过构建返乡创业政策效力指数与创业环境评价模型,实证检验了“政策推力”与“环境引力”对农民工返乡创业的影响及其效应差异。研究发现,创业环境的促进效力强于创业政策,且创业政策在创业环境影响农民工返乡创业过程中存在区域调节效应,西部地区尤为显著。相比于需求型政策,环境型和供给型政策能够有效推动农民工返乡创业;压力、状态和响应创业环境指标均对农民工返乡创业产生显著促进作用,响应指标的激励效应相对较小。应“筑巢引凤”,夯实返乡创业环境,建立激励相容的返乡创业政策组合,完善创业需求响应机制,提升“政策-环境”适配性,构建多主体协同的农民工返乡创业支持体系,推动返乡创业高质量发展。

退货政策宽松度对消费者网购意愿的影响——基于SOR模型的有调节双中介效应分析

在网络购物中,由于产品收货时间滞后于支付时间而导致退货现象频发,因此退货政策成为影响消费者行为的重要因素之一。基于“刺激-组织-反应”模型(SOR模型),并结合信号理论,以感知质量和感知风险为中介变量,以产品异质性和店铺口碑为调节变量,通过有调节的双中介效应检验考察退货政策宽松度对消费者购买意愿的影响及其传导路径,结果表明:宽松的退货政策使消费者产生更高的感知质量和更低的感知风险,感知质量的提高和感知风险的降低会增强消费者购买意愿,从而形成“退货政策宽松→感知质量提高→购买意愿增强”和“退货政策宽松→感知风险降低→购买意愿增强”两条传导路径;在口碑较好的店铺中,退货政策宽松对消费者感知质量和感知风险的影响更强;对于异质性较弱的产品,退货政策宽松对消费者感知风险的影响更强。这些研究结果不仅有助于揭示退货政策影响消费者购买意愿的机制,而且对消费者、网络店铺和电商平台都具有重要的管理启示。

秸秆综合利用生态补偿政策与农户秸秆还田行为

秸秆综合利用生态补偿旨在激励农户积极参与秸秆还田政策,促进农业绿色发展,然而秸秆综合利用生态补偿是否真的有助于农户进行秸秆还田尚不明确。鉴于此,构建秸秆综合利用生态补偿与农户秸秆还田行为的理论分析框架,探讨秸秆综合利用生态补偿对农户秸秆还田行为的影响与作用机制,并利用湖北省黄冈市822份农户调查数据,运用Binary Probit模型进行实证检验。结果表明:1)秸秆综合利用生态补偿对农户秸秆还田行为有显著的正向影响;其中,补贴、监管和处罚均促进农户秸秆还田行为;相较于监管和处罚,补贴对农户秸秆还田行为有更明显的推动作用。2)作用机制发现,农户内在感知在秸秆综合利用生态补偿对农户秸秆还田行为的影响中产生中介效应,即秸秆综合利用生态补偿政策能够通过提高农户对秸秆还田技术的内在感知,进而促进农户秸秆还田行为。3)农户社会资本在秸秆综合利用生态补偿与农户秸秆还田行为的关系中发挥正向调节作用,即社会资本的提升能够进一步强化秸秆综合利用生态补偿政策对农户秸秆还田行为的推动作用。据此,有必要建立健全秸秆综合利用生态补偿制度,提高农户秸秆还田内在感知水平,增强农户社会资本,统筹提升农户采取秸秆还田行为的效果,推动秸秆资源化利用和农业绿色高质量发展。

基于PMC指数模型的农民工返乡创业政策量化评价

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