Development of contingent valuation method in evaluating non-market values of resources and environment in China

The contingent valuation method （CVM） is one of the main methods for evaluating non-market values of resources. It originated in the United States and was introduced into China during the 1980s and 1990s. However, application of CVM in China is highly controversial based on three primary aspects： （I） the appropriate guidelines for CVM; （2） the elicitation techniques for willingness to pay （WTP）; and （3） reliability and validity testing of CVM. The major objectives of this paper are to i^eview the recem devel- opments pertaining to guidelines, elicitation techniques, and reliability and validity testing for application of CVM, and to summa- rize the limitations of and measures for improving application of CVM in China. The applicability of CVM in China is discussed to enhance the future development of CVM in China.

Combining Stated Preference and Revealed Preference Methods for the Valuation of Non-market Goods

In this paper,we introduce the combining stated preference and revealed preference methods which is the state-ofthe-art method for the valuation of non-market goods.Revealed preference methods and stated preference (SP) methods have both been applied by economists in valuing non-market goods;however both methods have inherent weaknesses.In order to exploit the strengths of the various approaches while minimizing their weaknesses,combining the two methods has become an important methodological option.Up to now,a growing number of literatures of studying combing the two types of data have evolved,and researchers developed three types of models to estimate combining revealed preference and stated preference data in academic fields:discrete choice model,continuous choice model and mixed choice model.Combining stated and revealed preference methods have been developed fast especially in the transport study field in which ideas could also be leant for environmental economic studies.

An Extension of One-Period Nash Equilibrium Model in Non-Life Insurance Markets

This paper deals with an extension of the one-period model in non-life insurance markets (cf. [1]) by using a transition probability matrix depending on some economic factors. We introduce a multi-period model and in each period the solvency constraints will be updated. Moreover, the model has the inactive state including some uninsured population. Similar results on the existence of premium equilibrium and sensitivity analysis for this model are presented and illustrated by numerical results.

Exploring switch tendency between cyclists and non-cyclists using market segmentation approach

This work aimed to explore the switch tendency of bicycle use between cyclists and non-cyclists.The attitude based market segmentation approach was proposed to achieve the research objective.The filed investigations were conducted in Nanjing,China,to obtain travelers' actions and attitudes towards bicycle uses.The structural equation modeling(SEM) was used to identify the attitudinal factors indicating variables and to explore the interrelationships among them.The SEMs were developed separately for the cyclist group and the non-cyclist group.All respondents were clustered into eight distinct segments by six selected attitudinal factors.The mode switch tendency and attitude in each segment is different from others,indicating that different segments have particular policies or strategies to encourage cycling.Policy implications that best serve the potential bicycle users were discussed to reduce the number of cyclists who have high tendency to use other modes,and increase the possibility of using bicycle in the non-cyclists group with the moderate and high switch tendency.

Farmers' Willingness to Pay( WTP ) for Reducing Agricultural Non-point Source Pollution: Based on the Empirical Analysis of 453 Farmers

With the rapid development of modern agriculture,agricultural non-point source pollution becomes increasingly serious in China,improving farmers' environmental protection consciousness plays a very important role in the reduction of agricultural non-point source pollution,and the WTP of Farmers for controlling agricultural non-point source pollution strongly reflects the strength of their environmental protection consciousness. Therefore,this investigation and study choose rural areas of five counties from Chongqing city and Zhejiang province as our sample,respectively make interview survey with the WTP(money or voluntary work) of farmers for improving local water and soil quality. Based on the statistical analysis of survey data,this study also takes empirical test and analysis with the influence factors on the WTP of farmers for reducing agricultural non-point source pollution. The analysis and conclusions of this research provides the supports in theory and practice for optimizing farmers' behavior,promoting the management of agricultural non-point source pollution and implementing new rural construction goal.

Forecasting China′s Stock Market Volatility Using Non-Linear GARCH Models

This paper studies the performance of the GARCH model and two of its non linear modifications to forecast China′s weekly stock market volatility. The models are the Quadratic GARCH and the Glosten, Jagannathan and Runkle models which have proposed to describe the often observed negative skewness in stock market indices. We find that the QGARCH model is best when the estimation sample does not contain extreme observations and that the GJR model cannot be recommended for forecasting.

Non-cooperative optimization games in market-oriented overlay networks： an integrated model of resource pricing and network formation

In this paper, we formulate a non-cooperative optimization game in market-oriented overlay networks where participating peers share their own computing resources to earn virtual money called energy. We model an overlay network as a set of non-cooperative resource providing peers, called platforms, that perform resource pricing and topology management to maximize their own energy gains. Resource consuming peers, called agents, are simply designed to migrate platform-to-platform to find the least expensive resources in the network. Simulation results are presented to demonstrate the market dynamics as well as the global properties of the network, i.e., resource price and network topology, that emerge from local interactions among the group of peers.

Valuing options to renew at future market value:the case of commercial property leases

In this study,we develop and empirically test a valuation model for a commonly encountered option in office leases:a tenant’s option to renew at future market rent(a fair market value)with lease termination as the maturity date.The model integrates decision analysis with real options analysis and market risk with private risks.“Option value”is defined as the private value of the option to either party pre-contract,while“option price”assumes a fair agreement between transacting parties and can be positive(rental premium paid)or negative(rental discount offered).Without manifest expectations,an analysis of a sample of office leases supports the model’s logic with price estimates in a practical range.The tenants’option price/value is shown to have a negative relationship with the original/renewal lease term;conversely,the landlords’option value is positively related to the original/renewal term.Comparative analyses show that transaction costs have a positive effect on tenants’option value and on prices,while vacancy costs and the vacancy period are both positively related to the landlords’option value and negatively related to price.Market rent is found to have a negative relationship with option price.Overall,this study provides a theoretical analysis and empirical tests of the value of a real option that allows option holders to renew/extend their contracts at a fair market value.

全球化与高管薪酬--基于中国上市公司的经验证据

基于2003—2021年A股制造业上市公司数据,本文从FDI流入的角度实证检验了全球化对高管薪酬的影响及其作用机制。研究发现,全球化显著提高了高管薪酬。该结论在考虑了内生性问题、控制同时期其他政策影响以及遗漏变量问题后依然稳健。此外,进一步研究后发现,全球化主要通过公司治理中的独立董事治理影响高管薪酬,市场机制的作用有限。拓展性研究还发现,全球化对高管薪酬的作用表现出异质性。全球化在非垄断行业和国有企业中具有更大的影响。相较于普通高管,权力型高管在全球化中受益更多,这意味着随着全球化的进展,企业内部高管之间的不平等在加剧。本文的发现提供了全球化对高管薪酬具有积极影响的中国证据,有助于丰富国际贸易与顶端收入分配领域的文献。

论中国碳市场不良资产的表现与法治应对

碳市场的不良资产代表了碳信用与交易预期落空的不良结果,存在基础不良资产、直接不良资产与进阶不良资产三种表现,拥有亏空价值虚拟性、成因复杂性等特征,对应形成干扰市场交易、阻碍低碳减排的双重危害。基于此,该研究采用规范分析、案例调研等方法,全面分析了碳市场不良资产的定性与法治约束现状,并尝试总结碳市场不良资产规制的理念要义与法治改革措施。研究发现:在不良碳资产的定性上,相应法律缺乏识别对应碳资产不良化的自觉,亦不具备界定其内容与范围的实践。在不良碳资产的预防上,已有的法治安排难以克服企业经营不当、市场环境不佳、虚假承诺与市场投机行为等导致资产不良化的负面因素。在不良碳资产的处置上,现行法律不仅在处置主体、处置内容、处置程序与处置救济领域存在规范空白,仅有的关联尝试亦未契合碳市场不良资产消化的经济规律。因此,有必要着眼于不良碳资产形成与消除的逻辑脉络:在理念层面,一是应推崇透明的竞争观,尽可能消除信息不对称所带来的非正义。二是需要破解利益博弈的“囚徒困境”,充分提振碳市场维持运行的信心、保持信息的顺畅流通、改变碳减排交易的利益总量预设,引导企业积极参与碳市场活动。三是应尽可能缩小承诺兑现的利益差距,避免价值泡沫的形成。在实践层面,一是应在规则与实践中明晰碳市场不良资产的属性、内容与影响。二是应形成预防不良碳资产累积的全面规制体系。三是需要以一体化思维应对碳市场不良资产的处置问题。

碳市场建立对非控排企业绿色创新的影响研究

以尚未纳入碳交易体系的上市公司为样本,基于溢出效应框架分析碳市场建立对非控排企业环保决策的影响。研究发现,客户被纳入碳市场交易促进了非控排供应商企业的绿色创新。其作用机制在于,碳交易下的控排企业绿色创新具有基于生产网络的压力效应和动力效应,能够激发关联非控排企业的绿色创新意愿,并助推其绿色创新能力提升。这一溢出效应有助于实现非控排企业绿色创新增量提质,且该过程具有方向性,碳市场建立并不存在基于生产网络“自上而下”的治理效果外溢,相关影响在非控排企业客户集中度较高、绿色创新基础较好及环境不确定性较高时更加明显。此外,碳市场建立的绿色创新溢出效应对于推动非控排企业可持续发展具有积极作用。研究结论为高效发挥碳市场绿色治理效果、深化环保改革以促进经济高质量发展提供了管理启示。

反腐败斗争对推动共同富裕的正向作用——基于省际平衡面板数据(2005—2021)比较分析的实证研究

党的十八大以来,全面从严治党取得了历史性、开创性成就,反腐败斗争取得了压倒性胜利并得到了全面巩固,在此过程中,“反腐败影响经济增长”的论调“若隐若现”。以翔实数据论证反腐败斗争促进经济发展、推动共同富裕目标的事实成为当前极为重要的一个课题。本研究基于2005—2021年省际平衡面板数据,运用双重差分法探讨党的十八大之前和之后两时期反腐败斗争对推动共同富裕的影响。研究发现,进入新时代,反腐败斗争显著促进了共同富裕目标,反腐败斗争可通过促进非国有经济发展与整个要素市场发育而提高地区共同富裕水平。在稳健性分析中,通过安慰剂检验以解决不可观测到的因素对回归结果产生的影响,该结果依然成立。该研究结果价值主要体现在两方面:一者,能有力回应“反腐败影响经济增长”之荒谬论调;另者,能够丰富“反腐败”“共同富裕”等研究领域的相关文献。

互不挖人协议《反垄断法》规制的理据与进路

认定和规制互不挖人协议,是《反垄断法》亟须回应的现实问题。互不挖人协议分为横向互不挖人协议与纵向互不挖人协议。其中,纵向互不挖人协议兼具横向垄断协议与纵向垄断协议的部分特征,故超出了《反垄断法》的规制框架。回归垄断协议的实质性判断标准,运用劳动经济学分析工具,可证成互不挖人协议的《反垄断法》规制正当性。借鉴域外经验,回归我国劳动力市场特征,可从短期、长期两个角度为我国互不挖人协议的《反垄断法》规制找到理想路径。在未来的法律修订中,《反垄断法》应从价值目标、分析方法、豁免规则三个方面作出整全的制度回应:一是明确劳动者利益保护之立场,二是重设相关市场之分析方法,三是调整针对垄断协议的豁免规则。

紫龙金片对中晚期非小细胞肺癌患者生存时间的影响

目的探讨紫龙金片参与治疗对中晚期非小细胞肺癌患者生存时间的影响。方法采用前瞻性、观察性真实世界队列研究方法,收集首都医科大学附属北京中医医院肿瘤科中晚期肺癌的医疗健康数据及基于研究目的采集的数据构成数据库,从中调取临床分期为ⅢB~Ⅳ期患者相关资料。以是否服用紫龙金片为暴露因素,提取患者人口学、肺癌诊断、治疗、紫龙金片服用等相关信息,采用Kaplan-Meier法进行单因素分析,COX模型法进行多因素生存分析。结果最终301例患者纳入研究,其中暴露队列99例、非暴露队列202例。暴露队列经手术治疗比例高于非暴露队列(P<0.05)。暴露队列预估平均生存时间为1085.990 d[95%CI(964.694,1207.286)],高于非暴露队列的840.074 d[95%CI(748.942,931.207)],差异有统计学意义(P=0.002)。单因素分析结果显示,患者性别、年龄、病理类型、TNM临床分期、手术治疗、紫龙金片暴露与生存时间相关(P≤0.1)。COX回归模型多因素分析结果显示,老年、肺鳞状细胞癌、较晚临床分期是死亡终点时间的独立危险因素,而女性、接受手术治疗、化学药物治疗、靶向治疗、紫龙金片治疗为独立保护因素,其中临床分期、手术治疗、紫龙金片暴露差异有统计学意义(P<0.05)。结论基于当前数据及分析方法,紫龙金片参与治疗对于中晚期非小细胞肺癌患者的生存时间表现出较为明显的保护作用。

农业要素市场化对农业面源污染的影响效应——兼议环境规制的调节作用

本文探讨了农业市场化改革背景下,农业要素市场化对农业面源污染的影响效应、作用机制以及环境规制在其中的调节作用。基于2004—2020年中国省级(不含港澳台、西藏)面板数据,构建了动态面板模型,并运用差分广义矩阵及调节效应模型进行分析。研究结果表明:1)农业要素市场化对面源污染呈现倒“U”型的动态演化特征;2)机制分析表明,农业要素市场化通过种植结构效应、化学品投入效应和经营规模效应间接影响面源污染,具体而言,农业要素市场化对“非粮化率”和化肥投入强度存在倒“U”型影响,对人均经营规模的影响在市场化程度较高的后期显著为正;3)环境规制在“非粮化率”和化肥投入强度的传导机制中具有显著的负向调节作用,对经营规模与面源污染之间的传导关系不存在显著调节效应。因此,本文提出要进一步发挥市场化改革对农业污染治理的长效机制,立足农业面源污染治理“规模效应”“结构效应”和“投入品效应”的路径依赖,构建“政府-市场”双轨运行机制,以实现农业生态环境的改善和农业可持续发展。

面向省间电力现货市场的购电博弈竞价模型

在国家大力推动省间电力市场建设的背景下,多个购电省共同参与省间电力现货市场时存在竞争关系。为了给购电省制定合理的报价策略,提出面向省间电力现货市场的购电博弈竞价模型。首先,根据购电省省内市场运营情况计算边际省间购电量-价曲线,以此作为购电省参与省间电力现货市场的报价曲线。然后,提出联络线潮流方向可变场景下省间电力现货市场出清与定价模型,并建立多个购电省参与下的省间市场非合作博弈竞价模型,所得纳什均衡下的报价曲线即为购电省最优购电报价。最后,构建包含2个售电省和3个购电省的算例系统进行仿真计算,验证了所提模型的有效性,并获得了购电博弈竞价模型的纳什均衡解。

粮食产销平衡区耕地非粮化时空分异及驱动类型

为探究粮食产销平衡区耕地非粮化率时空分异,识别其驱动类型,本研究采用空间自相关模型对2005—2020年山西省耕地非粮化率时空演变特征进行分析,利用随机森林模型分析耕地非粮化率影响因素,利用主成分分析法和K-Means聚类法探究山西省耕地非粮化驱动类型。结果表明:从时间上看,耕地非粮化率由2005年的50.21%下降到2020年的40.05%,呈“W”型波动,超过山西省粮食安全阈值11.45个百分点;从空间上看,耕地非粮化率差异显著,呈现西北高、东南低的分布格局;从空间集聚类型上看,2005—2020年山西省耕地非粮化率全局莫兰指数先下降后上升,空间集聚效应加强,主要以高高集聚和低低集聚为主。土地生产率、年降水量、各县到省会中心的距离对耕地非粮化率变化起主要作用,且均与耕地非粮化率呈负相关。山西省耕地非粮化驱动类型主要分为资源禀赋型、交通便利型、农业支持型和经济作物增长型。识别山西省耕地非粮化驱动类型,制定针对性的管控措施,对于保护农业发展和粮食安全具有重要的理论和现实意义。