Short-term(up to 30 days)predictions of Earth Rotation Parameters(ERPs)such as Polar Motion(PM:PMX and PMY)play an essential role in real-time applications related to high-precision reference frame conversion.Currentl...Short-term(up to 30 days)predictions of Earth Rotation Parameters(ERPs)such as Polar Motion(PM:PMX and PMY)play an essential role in real-time applications related to high-precision reference frame conversion.Currently,least squares(LS)+auto-regressive(AR)hybrid method is one of the main techniques of PM prediction.Besides,the weighted LS+AR hybrid method performs well for PM short-term prediction.However,the corresponding covariance information of LS fitting residuals deserves further exploration in the AR model.In this study,we have derived a modified stochastic model for the LS+AR hybrid method,namely the weighted LS+weighted AR hybrid method.By using the PM data products of IERS EOP 14 C04,the numerical results indicate that for PM short-term forecasting,the proposed weighted LS+weighted AR hybrid method shows an advantage over both the LS+AR hybrid method and the weighted LS+AR hybrid method.Compared to the mean absolute errors(MAEs)of PMX/PMY sho rt-term prediction of the LS+AR hybrid method and the weighted LS+AR hybrid method,the weighted LS+weighted AR hybrid method shows average improvements of 6.61%/12.08%and 0.24%/11.65%,respectively.Besides,for the slopes of the linear regression lines fitted to the errors of each method,the growth of the prediction error of the proposed method is slower than that of the other two methods.展开更多
针对半球共形阵体制下进行低空风切变检测时会受到强地杂波信号的干扰,导致风切变信号难以检测的问题,提出了一种基于空时自回归的直接数据域算法(Space-Time Autoregressive Direct Data Domain,D3AR)的低空风切变风速估计方法。该方...针对半球共形阵体制下进行低空风切变检测时会受到强地杂波信号的干扰,导致风切变信号难以检测的问题,提出了一种基于空时自回归的直接数据域算法(Space-Time Autoregressive Direct Data Domain,D3AR)的低空风切变风速估计方法。该方法首先将待检测距离单元的数据从空域、时域以及空时域进行信号对消处理;然后将处理后的数据矩阵描述为空时自回归(Autoregression,AR)模型并估计模型参数;再通过构造与杂波子空间正交的空间来实现对杂波的抑制,最后通过提取待检测单元的最大多普勒频率来估计风场速度。根据仿真结果显示,该方法有效地实现了地杂波抑制,并且能够精确估计风速。展开更多
考虑电池单体老化差异所致的电池组不一致性,针对串联电池组荷电状态(state of charge,SOC)、容量估计问题,提出一种基于自回归等效电路模型(autoregression equivalent circuit model,AR-ECM)的平均差异模型(mean-difference model,MDM...考虑电池单体老化差异所致的电池组不一致性,针对串联电池组荷电状态(state of charge,SOC)、容量估计问题,提出一种基于自回归等效电路模型(autoregression equivalent circuit model,AR-ECM)的平均差异模型(mean-difference model,MDM)。基于此模型,提出串联电池组SOC、容量多尺度联合估计算法。该算法由2个部分组成,一是基于AR-ECM的MDM及差异化模型参数辨识策略:条件辨识策略和定频分组辨识策略;二是基于多时间尺度H无穷滤波(multi-timescale H infinity filter,Mts-HIF)的电池组SOC、容量联合估计算法。通过将所提出MDM中的自回归平均模型(autoregression mean model,AR-MM)与传统MDM中的n阶RC平均模型(nRC mean model,nRC-MM)比较,结果表明所提出的AR-MM在复杂运行工况下具有更优的动态跟随性能。依据最小化信息量准则(akaike information criterion,AIC),AR-MM具有更优的复杂度与精度的权衡。通过与基于多时间尺度扩展卡尔曼滤波(multi-timescale extended Kalman filter,Mts-EKF)联合状态估计算法比较,结果表明所提出的Mts-HIF状态估计算法具有更优的鲁棒性、精度和收敛速度。展开更多
To validate the potential space-time adaptive processing (STAP) algorithms for airborne bistatic radar clutter suppression under nonstationary and non-Gaussian clutter environments, a statistically non-Gaussian, spa...To validate the potential space-time adaptive processing (STAP) algorithms for airborne bistatic radar clutter suppression under nonstationary and non-Gaussian clutter environments, a statistically non-Gaussian, space-time clutter model in varying bistatic geometrical scenarios is presented. The inclusive effects of the model contain the range dependency of bistatic clutter spectrum and clutter power variation in range-angle cells. To capture them, a new approach to coordinate system conversion is initiated into formulating bistatic geometrical model, and the bistatic non-Gaussian amplitude clutter representation method based on a compound model is introduced. The veracity of the geometrical model is validated by using the bistatic configuration parameters of multi-channel airborne radar measurement (MCARM) experiment. And simulation results manifest that the proposed model can accurately shape the space-time clutter spectrum tied up with specific airborne bistatic radar scenario and can characterize the heterogeneity of clutter amplitude distribution in practical clutter environments.展开更多
In this paper, we have introduced a shell-model of Kraichnan's passive scalar problem. Different from the original problem, the prescribed random velocity field is non-Gaussian and σ correlated in time, and its intr...In this paper, we have introduced a shell-model of Kraichnan's passive scalar problem. Different from the original problem, the prescribed random velocity field is non-Gaussian and σ correlated in time, and its introduction is inspired by She and Levveque (Phys. Rev. Lett. 72, 336 (1994)). For comparison, we also give the passive scalar advected by the Gaussian random velocity field. The anomalous scaling exponents H(p) of passive scalar advected by these two kinds of random velocities above are determined for structure function with values of p up to 15 by Monte Carlo simulations of the random shell model, with Gear methods used to solve the stochastic differential equations. We find that the H(p) advected by the non-Gaussian random velocity is not more anomalous than that advected by the Gaussian random velocity. Whether the advecting velocity is non-Gaussian or Gaussian, similar scaling exponents of passive scalar are obtained with the same molecular diffusivity.展开更多
The study addresses the integration of the Building Information Modelling (BIM) methodology with Virtual Reality (VR) and Augmented Reality (AR) technologies in the context of the development of a multidisciplinary pr...The study addresses the integration of the Building Information Modelling (BIM) methodology with Virtual Reality (VR) and Augmented Reality (AR) technologies in the context of the development of a multidisciplinary project, involving architecture, structures, water network and electrical system components. In order to cover in detail the various design features, the case study was limited to a specific area of a house, the sanitary rooms, as it presents sufficient complexity in modeling and the application of VR and AR software. The VR/AR functionalities applied over the BIM model increase the potential of BIM in the construction sector, contributing to the achievement of a high level of collaboration and control of the project based on an immersive and interactive environment. The elaboration of the different phases of a BIM design requires the transfer of models between BIM and VR/AR systems, allowing us to analyze the main advantages that BIM/VR/AR integration can introduce in the construction industry. The study contributes positively to achieving new knowledge in BIM, being disseminated in an academic research work and illustrated in a practical context.展开更多
Different from other domestic and foreign research in which the optimum interpolation(OI) merging algorithm is commonly used,this paper constructs the non-Gaussian model for generalized variational precipitation data ...Different from other domestic and foreign research in which the optimum interpolation(OI) merging algorithm is commonly used,this paper constructs the non-Gaussian model for generalized variational precipitation data merging research based on the non-Gaussianity of precipitation data. For CMORPH data correction,the probability density function( PDF) matching method is adopted,during which the GAMMA function fitting is utilized,and the generalized variational merging based on non-Gaussian model is used to merge corrected CMORPH precipitation data and station ground observation precipitation data. Meanwhile,we carry out an experiment on CMORPH precipitation data correction and the merging of multisource precipitation data based on non-Gaussian model. By measuring the structural similarity between the merged field and the reference field,we get a merging method that can better retain useful " outliers" which represent weather phenomena. The experimental results accord with our expectations.展开更多
The identification of the inter-electrode gap size in the high frequency group pulse micro-electrochemical machining (HGPECM) is mainly discussed. The auto-regressive(AR) model of group pulse current flowing acros...The identification of the inter-electrode gap size in the high frequency group pulse micro-electrochemical machining (HGPECM) is mainly discussed. The auto-regressive(AR) model of group pulse current flowing across the cathode and the anode are created under different situations with different processing parameters and inter-electrode gap size. The AR model based on the current signals indicates that the order of the AR model is obviously different relating to the different processing conditions and the inter-electrode gap size; Moreover, it is different about the stability of the dynamic system, i.e. the white noise response of the Green's function of the dynamic system is diverse. In addition, power spectrum method is used in the analysis of the dynamic time series about the current signals with different inter-electrode gap size, the results show that there exists a strongest power spectrum peak, characteristic power spectrum(CPS), to the current signals related to the different inter-electrode gap size in the range of 0~5 kHz. Therefore, the CPS of current signals can implement the identification of the inter-electrode gap.展开更多
An analysis of statistical expected values for transformations is performed in this study to quantify the effect of heterogeneity on spatial geological modeling and evaluations. Algebraic transformations are frequentl...An analysis of statistical expected values for transformations is performed in this study to quantify the effect of heterogeneity on spatial geological modeling and evaluations. Algebraic transformations are frequently applied to data from logging to allow for the modeling of geological properties. Transformations may be powers, products, and exponential operations which are commonly used in well-known relations (e.g., porosity-permeability transforms). The results of this study show that correct computations must account for residual transformation terms which arise due to lack of independence among heterogeneous geological properties. In the case of an exponential porosity-permeability transform, the values may be positive. This proves that a simple exponential model back-transformed from linear regression underestimates permeability. In the case of transformations involving two or more properties, residual terms may represent the contribution of heterogeneous components which occur when properties vary together, regardless of a pair-wise linear independence. A consequence of power- and product-transform models is that regression equations within those transformations need corrections via residual cumulants. A generalization of this result is that transformations of multivariate spatial attributes require multiple-point random variable relations. This analysis provides practical solutions leading to a methodology for nonlinear modeling using correct back transformations in geology.展开更多
Based on the weekly closing price of Shenzhen Integrated Index, this article studies the volatility of Shenzhen Stock Market using three different models: Logistic, AR(1) and AR(2). The time-variable parameters o...Based on the weekly closing price of Shenzhen Integrated Index, this article studies the volatility of Shenzhen Stock Market using three different models: Logistic, AR(1) and AR(2). The time-variable parameters of Logistic regression model is estimated by using both the index smoothing method and the time-variable parameter estimation method. And both the AR(1) model and the AR(2) model of zero-mean series of the weekly dosing price and its zero-mean series of volatility rate are established based on the analysis results of zero-mean series of the weekly closing price, Six common statistical methods for error prediction are used to test the predicting results. These methods are: mean error (ME), mean absolute error (MAE), root mean squared error (RMSE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), Akaike's information criterion (AIC), and Bayesian information criterion (BIC). The investigation shows that AR(1) model exhibits the best predicting result, whereas AR(2) model exhibits predicting results that is intermediate between AR(1) model and the Logistic regression model.展开更多
A new robust proportional-integral-derivative (PID) tracking control framework is considered for stochastic systems with non-Gaussian variable based on B-spline neural network approximation and T-S fuzzy model ident...A new robust proportional-integral-derivative (PID) tracking control framework is considered for stochastic systems with non-Gaussian variable based on B-spline neural network approximation and T-S fuzzy model identification. The tracked object is the statistical information of a given target probability density function (PDF), rather than a deterministic signal. Following B-spline approximation to the integrated performance function, the concerned problem is transferred into the tracking of given weights. Different from the previous related works, the time delay T-S fuzzy models with the exogenous disturbances are applied to identify the nonlinear weighting dynamics. Meanwhile, the generalized PID controller structure and the improved convex linear matrix inequalities (LMI) algorithms are proposed to fulfil the tracking problem. Furthermore, in order to enhance the robust performance, the peak-to-peak measure index is applied to optimize the tracking performance. Simulations are given to demonstrate the efficiency of the proposed approach.展开更多
In this article we study the empirical likelihood inference for AR(p) model. We propose the moment restrictions, by which we get the empirical likelihood estimator of the model parametric, and we also propose an emp...In this article we study the empirical likelihood inference for AR(p) model. We propose the moment restrictions, by which we get the empirical likelihood estimator of the model parametric, and we also propose an empirical log-likelihood ratio base on this estimator. Our result shows that the EL estimator is asymptotically normal, and the empirical log-likelihood ratio is proved to be asymptotically standard chi-squared.展开更多
基金supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China,China(No.42004016)HuBei Natural Science Fund,China(No.2020CFB329)+1 种基金HuNan Natural Science Fund,China(No.2023JJ60559,2023JJ60560)the State Key Laboratory of Geodesy and Earth’s Dynamics self-deployment project,China(No.S21L6101)。
文摘Short-term(up to 30 days)predictions of Earth Rotation Parameters(ERPs)such as Polar Motion(PM:PMX and PMY)play an essential role in real-time applications related to high-precision reference frame conversion.Currently,least squares(LS)+auto-regressive(AR)hybrid method is one of the main techniques of PM prediction.Besides,the weighted LS+AR hybrid method performs well for PM short-term prediction.However,the corresponding covariance information of LS fitting residuals deserves further exploration in the AR model.In this study,we have derived a modified stochastic model for the LS+AR hybrid method,namely the weighted LS+weighted AR hybrid method.By using the PM data products of IERS EOP 14 C04,the numerical results indicate that for PM short-term forecasting,the proposed weighted LS+weighted AR hybrid method shows an advantage over both the LS+AR hybrid method and the weighted LS+AR hybrid method.Compared to the mean absolute errors(MAEs)of PMX/PMY sho rt-term prediction of the LS+AR hybrid method and the weighted LS+AR hybrid method,the weighted LS+weighted AR hybrid method shows average improvements of 6.61%/12.08%and 0.24%/11.65%,respectively.Besides,for the slopes of the linear regression lines fitted to the errors of each method,the growth of the prediction error of the proposed method is slower than that of the other two methods.
文摘针对半球共形阵体制下进行低空风切变检测时会受到强地杂波信号的干扰,导致风切变信号难以检测的问题,提出了一种基于空时自回归的直接数据域算法(Space-Time Autoregressive Direct Data Domain,D3AR)的低空风切变风速估计方法。该方法首先将待检测距离单元的数据从空域、时域以及空时域进行信号对消处理;然后将处理后的数据矩阵描述为空时自回归(Autoregression,AR)模型并估计模型参数;再通过构造与杂波子空间正交的空间来实现对杂波的抑制,最后通过提取待检测单元的最大多普勒频率来估计风场速度。根据仿真结果显示,该方法有效地实现了地杂波抑制,并且能够精确估计风速。
文摘考虑电池单体老化差异所致的电池组不一致性,针对串联电池组荷电状态(state of charge,SOC)、容量估计问题,提出一种基于自回归等效电路模型(autoregression equivalent circuit model,AR-ECM)的平均差异模型(mean-difference model,MDM)。基于此模型,提出串联电池组SOC、容量多尺度联合估计算法。该算法由2个部分组成,一是基于AR-ECM的MDM及差异化模型参数辨识策略:条件辨识策略和定频分组辨识策略;二是基于多时间尺度H无穷滤波(multi-timescale H infinity filter,Mts-HIF)的电池组SOC、容量联合估计算法。通过将所提出MDM中的自回归平均模型(autoregression mean model,AR-MM)与传统MDM中的n阶RC平均模型(nRC mean model,nRC-MM)比较,结果表明所提出的AR-MM在复杂运行工况下具有更优的动态跟随性能。依据最小化信息量准则(akaike information criterion,AIC),AR-MM具有更优的复杂度与精度的权衡。通过与基于多时间尺度扩展卡尔曼滤波(multi-timescale extended Kalman filter,Mts-EKF)联合状态估计算法比较,结果表明所提出的Mts-HIF状态估计算法具有更优的鲁棒性、精度和收敛速度。
基金supported by the National Defense Advanced Research Foundation of China (51407020304DZ0223).
文摘To validate the potential space-time adaptive processing (STAP) algorithms for airborne bistatic radar clutter suppression under nonstationary and non-Gaussian clutter environments, a statistically non-Gaussian, space-time clutter model in varying bistatic geometrical scenarios is presented. The inclusive effects of the model contain the range dependency of bistatic clutter spectrum and clutter power variation in range-angle cells. To capture them, a new approach to coordinate system conversion is initiated into formulating bistatic geometrical model, and the bistatic non-Gaussian amplitude clutter representation method based on a compound model is introduced. The veracity of the geometrical model is validated by using the bistatic configuration parameters of multi-channel airborne radar measurement (MCARM) experiment. And simulation results manifest that the proposed model can accurately shape the space-time clutter spectrum tied up with specific airborne bistatic radar scenario and can characterize the heterogeneity of clutter amplitude distribution in practical clutter environments.
基金Project supported by the Major Program of the National Natural Science Foundation (Grant No 10335010) and the National Natural Science Foundation-the Science Foundation of China Academy of Engineering Physics NSAF (Grant No 10576005).Acknowledgement We are grateful to Professor She Zhen-Su for useful suggestions and Dr Sun Peng and Dr Zhang Xiao- Qiang for extensive discussion.
文摘In this paper, we have introduced a shell-model of Kraichnan's passive scalar problem. Different from the original problem, the prescribed random velocity field is non-Gaussian and σ correlated in time, and its introduction is inspired by She and Levveque (Phys. Rev. Lett. 72, 336 (1994)). For comparison, we also give the passive scalar advected by the Gaussian random velocity field. The anomalous scaling exponents H(p) of passive scalar advected by these two kinds of random velocities above are determined for structure function with values of p up to 15 by Monte Carlo simulations of the random shell model, with Gear methods used to solve the stochastic differential equations. We find that the H(p) advected by the non-Gaussian random velocity is not more anomalous than that advected by the Gaussian random velocity. Whether the advecting velocity is non-Gaussian or Gaussian, similar scaling exponents of passive scalar are obtained with the same molecular diffusivity.
文摘The study addresses the integration of the Building Information Modelling (BIM) methodology with Virtual Reality (VR) and Augmented Reality (AR) technologies in the context of the development of a multidisciplinary project, involving architecture, structures, water network and electrical system components. In order to cover in detail the various design features, the case study was limited to a specific area of a house, the sanitary rooms, as it presents sufficient complexity in modeling and the application of VR and AR software. The VR/AR functionalities applied over the BIM model increase the potential of BIM in the construction sector, contributing to the achievement of a high level of collaboration and control of the project based on an immersive and interactive environment. The elaboration of the different phases of a BIM design requires the transfer of models between BIM and VR/AR systems, allowing us to analyze the main advantages that BIM/VR/AR integration can introduce in the construction industry. The study contributes positively to achieving new knowledge in BIM, being disseminated in an academic research work and illustrated in a practical context.
基金Supported by the Science Technology Foundation of State Grid Corporation of ChinaNatural Science Foundation of Anhui Province(1708085QD89)+1 种基金Huaihe River Basin Meteorological Open Research Fund(HRM201407)Shenyang Institute of Atmospheric Environment of China Meteorological Administration Open Fund Project(2016SYIAE14)
文摘Different from other domestic and foreign research in which the optimum interpolation(OI) merging algorithm is commonly used,this paper constructs the non-Gaussian model for generalized variational precipitation data merging research based on the non-Gaussianity of precipitation data. For CMORPH data correction,the probability density function( PDF) matching method is adopted,during which the GAMMA function fitting is utilized,and the generalized variational merging based on non-Gaussian model is used to merge corrected CMORPH precipitation data and station ground observation precipitation data. Meanwhile,we carry out an experiment on CMORPH precipitation data correction and the merging of multisource precipitation data based on non-Gaussian model. By measuring the structural similarity between the merged field and the reference field,we get a merging method that can better retain useful " outliers" which represent weather phenomena. The experimental results accord with our expectations.
基金This project is supported by the 10th Five-year Plan Pre-research Project Foundation of China Weapon Industry Company, China(No.42001080701).
文摘The identification of the inter-electrode gap size in the high frequency group pulse micro-electrochemical machining (HGPECM) is mainly discussed. The auto-regressive(AR) model of group pulse current flowing across the cathode and the anode are created under different situations with different processing parameters and inter-electrode gap size. The AR model based on the current signals indicates that the order of the AR model is obviously different relating to the different processing conditions and the inter-electrode gap size; Moreover, it is different about the stability of the dynamic system, i.e. the white noise response of the Green's function of the dynamic system is diverse. In addition, power spectrum method is used in the analysis of the dynamic time series about the current signals with different inter-electrode gap size, the results show that there exists a strongest power spectrum peak, characteristic power spectrum(CPS), to the current signals related to the different inter-electrode gap size in the range of 0~5 kHz. Therefore, the CPS of current signals can implement the identification of the inter-electrode gap.
文摘An analysis of statistical expected values for transformations is performed in this study to quantify the effect of heterogeneity on spatial geological modeling and evaluations. Algebraic transformations are frequently applied to data from logging to allow for the modeling of geological properties. Transformations may be powers, products, and exponential operations which are commonly used in well-known relations (e.g., porosity-permeability transforms). The results of this study show that correct computations must account for residual transformation terms which arise due to lack of independence among heterogeneous geological properties. In the case of an exponential porosity-permeability transform, the values may be positive. This proves that a simple exponential model back-transformed from linear regression underestimates permeability. In the case of transformations involving two or more properties, residual terms may represent the contribution of heterogeneous components which occur when properties vary together, regardless of a pair-wise linear independence. A consequence of power- and product-transform models is that regression equations within those transformations need corrections via residual cumulants. A generalization of this result is that transformations of multivariate spatial attributes require multiple-point random variable relations. This analysis provides practical solutions leading to a methodology for nonlinear modeling using correct back transformations in geology.
基金The research is supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (60574069)the Soft Science Foundation of Guangdong Province (2005B70101044)
文摘Based on the weekly closing price of Shenzhen Integrated Index, this article studies the volatility of Shenzhen Stock Market using three different models: Logistic, AR(1) and AR(2). The time-variable parameters of Logistic regression model is estimated by using both the index smoothing method and the time-variable parameter estimation method. And both the AR(1) model and the AR(2) model of zero-mean series of the weekly dosing price and its zero-mean series of volatility rate are established based on the analysis results of zero-mean series of the weekly closing price, Six common statistical methods for error prediction are used to test the predicting results. These methods are: mean error (ME), mean absolute error (MAE), root mean squared error (RMSE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), Akaike's information criterion (AIC), and Bayesian information criterion (BIC). The investigation shows that AR(1) model exhibits the best predicting result, whereas AR(2) model exhibits predicting results that is intermediate between AR(1) model and the Logistic regression model.
基金supported by National Natural Science Foundationof China (No. 60472065, No. 60774013).
文摘A new robust proportional-integral-derivative (PID) tracking control framework is considered for stochastic systems with non-Gaussian variable based on B-spline neural network approximation and T-S fuzzy model identification. The tracked object is the statistical information of a given target probability density function (PDF), rather than a deterministic signal. Following B-spline approximation to the integrated performance function, the concerned problem is transferred into the tracking of given weights. Different from the previous related works, the time delay T-S fuzzy models with the exogenous disturbances are applied to identify the nonlinear weighting dynamics. Meanwhile, the generalized PID controller structure and the improved convex linear matrix inequalities (LMI) algorithms are proposed to fulfil the tracking problem. Furthermore, in order to enhance the robust performance, the peak-to-peak measure index is applied to optimize the tracking performance. Simulations are given to demonstrate the efficiency of the proposed approach.
文摘In this article we study the empirical likelihood inference for AR(p) model. We propose the moment restrictions, by which we get the empirical likelihood estimator of the model parametric, and we also propose an empirical log-likelihood ratio base on this estimator. Our result shows that the EL estimator is asymptotically normal, and the empirical log-likelihood ratio is proved to be asymptotically standard chi-squared.