Non-agricultural Population, Employment and Land:An Econometric Study in an Integrated Framework

Abstract： his paper explored the relationships among nonagricultural population, employment and land in an integrated framework, taking account of rural-urban land conversion into Carlino-Mills＇s model on the regional growth. Two-stage-leastsquares and ordinary-least-squares were employed. Recent data for district （grade） cities in China （from 1999 to 2005） were used. Our results showed that： first, urban population influenced non-agricultural employment, and vice versa, but the evidence that non-agricultural employment influenced urban population was stronger than the evidence that urban population influenced non-agricultural employment; second, urban population and non-agricultural employment both influenced ruralurban land conversion, but the evidence that urban population influenced rural urban land conversion was more stronger than the evidence that non-agricultural employment did. We also found that： first, the employment from the secondary industry influenced urban population in a positive way, and vice versa, but the employment from the tertiary industry influenced urban population in a negative way, and vice versa; second, the employment from the secondary industry influenced rural-urban land conversion in a positive way, but the employment from the tertiary industry influenced rural-urban land conversion in a negative way. We can conclude that the key of urbanization is to speed up the process of non-agricultural employment, especially the employment from the tertiary industry, which might promote non-agricultural population, employment and land harmoniously.

Spatial Pattern of Female Non-agricultural Employment and Its Driving Forces in Guangdong Province,China:A Perspective of Individual and Family-level

Promoting women’s employment is not only the need of social and economic development,but also the historical mission of liberating women.This paper uses data from the 1%Population Sample Survey,taken in Guangdong Province in 2015,to explore how women’s marital status,education,and family environment affect the female non-agricultural employment rate(FNAER)on a county scale using a spatial-lag model.The results show that:1)The female non-agricultural employment rate in counties of Guangdong Province is low,with more than three-quarters of counties having female non-agricultural employment rate less than 50%.Moreover,the spatial distribution of FNAER is uneven,with the high-value areas concentrated in the southeast and the low-value areas mainly distributed in the central and western parts of Guangdong Province.2)From the perspective of industry,there are significant spatial differences among women.In the southeast,women are mainly engaged in the secondary industry,while in the central and western regions,women are mainly engaged in the tertiary industry.3)Women having better skills and more effective support from the elderly can improve the FNAER.Women having lower skills,smaller-scale families,a higher fertility rate,and households with two or more elderly members have a negative effect on the FNAER.4)Public policies suggest that improving women’s education and their family environment,building social welfare facilities,and repairing the family environment will increase the FNAER.

Relationship between Farmland Use Right Circulation and Non-agricultural Employment——Based on Survey Data from Eastern and Western China

Relationship between Chinese rural non-agricultural employment and farmland use circulation has always been a hot research topic without final conclusions.This paper uses survey data of"China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study(CHARLS)"covering 1,549 households of 95 villages in Zhejiang and Gansu Province in 2008.According to the data analysis,Zhejiang Province has a higher ratio of rural households leasing out their farmland than Gansu Province has,while the latter has a higher ratio of rural residents going out for earning a living.In both provinces,non-agricultural employment and farmland use circulation show significant positive correlation,but in Gansu,non-agricultural employment of farmers shows no significant positive correlation with rural households leasing out their farmland.The factor shows that for peasants in underdeveloped regions of west China,they rely more on land because of its social security functions,so they are not willing to lease out their land even when they go to cities for earning a living.For local government,it is not appropriate to promote farmland use circulation by depending on the transfer of rural labor forces,fundamental needs of peasants must be taken into consideration.

Employment Quality EvaluationModel Based on Hybrid Intelligent Algorithm

In order to solve the defect of large error in current employment quality evaluation,an employment quality evaluation model based on grey correlation degree method and fuzzy C-means(FCM)is proposed.Firstly,it analyzes the related research work of employment quality evaluation,establishes the employment quality evaluation index system,collects the index data,and normalizes the index data;Then,the weight value of employment quality evaluation index is determined by Grey relational analysis method,and some unimportant indexes are removed;Finally,the employment quality evaluation model is established by using fuzzy cluster analysis algorithm,and compared with other employment quality evaluation models.The test results show that the employment quality evaluation accuracy of the design model exceeds 93%,the employment quality evaluation error can meet the requirements of practical application,and the employment quality evaluation effect is much better than the comparison model.The comparison test verifies the superiority of the model.

企业劳动力需求变化及其动力——针对五个行业招聘信息259周的跟踪观察

就业形成于劳动力需求与供给的匹配。劳动力需求数据作为分析就业形势的先行指标,却一直比较缺乏。通过每周跟踪访问代表性网络招聘平台,观察五个行业企业在2017年5月至2023年3月初发布新岗位的特征,获得劳动力需求的“周频”数据。观察期内,企业劳动力需求整体呈现收缩趋势,同时具有明显的周期性、季节性调整特征。各行业的劳动力需求走势在2020年上半年普遍经历急剧下降并快速回弹的过程,形成“深V型”曲线,这主要得益于各类复工复产和援企稳岗等政策的有效实施。多个行业的企业岗位供应能力在2020年内稳步恢复至2019年年中水平,随后呈现差别化走势,到2023年初,各行业企业发布的新岗位数量相对于观察初期均收缩明显。民营企业是各行业最大的岗位供应主体,而大型城市劳动力需求则呈现不同程度下降,各行业对求职者的最低学历要求也呈现出提高趋势。宏观经济形势、企业面临的要素供应链和市场需求约束、劳动力需求主体的构成以及人力资本的重要性等因素,都是影响劳动力需求整体走势特征的深层理论机制。建议当前和未来一段时间内,促进各类政策举措协调配合,把有利于稳预期、稳增长和稳就业作为制定政策的优先考量,在供给端和需求端同时发力,畅通供应链,做强产业链,扩大有效需求,切实回应民营企业诉求,支持其稳定向优发展,促进企业的岗位创造潜力转变为现实的就业机会。

基于PMC指数模型的黑龙江省高校毕业生就业政策评价与优化研究

黑龙江省区位优势不明显,省份舒适性差,亟需通过政策手段吸引高校毕业生留黑就业。通过采用内容文本挖掘及政策建模一致性(PMC)指数构建等研究方法,为黑龙江省出台的高校毕业生就业政策构建包含10个一级指标、44个二级指标的政策量化PMC指数模型,进行实证分析。实证结果表明:黑龙江省高校毕业生就业政策PMC指数均值为7.67,处于优秀水平;15项政策样本中,完美级别1项,优秀级别12项,可接受级别2项,无不良级别政策,优良率占比为100%。在此基础上,选择指数值最高的政策P14、指数值居中的政策P5和指数值最低的政策P2进行详细分析发现,黑龙江省高校毕业生就业政策整体上设计较为合理,一致性程度较高,仍有很大改善空间。

重庆典型县域城乡非农就业指数测度研究

非农就业是城乡居民收入的重要保障,也是乡村产业兴旺发展的重要内容。该领域已有相应研究,但在就业岗位与人口的定量关系、城乡多级分异特征、产业驱动机制等方面仍需完善。采用手机信令数据、POI信息点及大数据分析方法,定量识别城乡多级空间,构建非农就业指数算法。以重庆典型县域为例,定量测度城乡多级空间非农就业岗位与常住人口的空间匹配关系。结果表明:(1)非农就业指数能够可靠表征非农就业岗位供给与常住人口的空间匹配关系;(2)非农就业指数存在城乡多级分异特征,表现为场镇>城乡结合部>城市核心>乡村;(3)非农就业指数对影响因子的响应程度存在城乡多级界限,其中城市核心响应程度最强,乡村响应程度最低;(4)工业园与景区的布局对邻近区域的非农就业存在正向驱动,助力区域形成:就业环境再改善-生活环境再改善的内生双循环驱动模式,推动城乡空间正向重构。结论为引导县域城乡非农产业发展与人口空间适配,实现乡村产业振兴提供科学依据。

对应用型本科高校毕业生就业质量评价指标体系的思考--基于《毕业生就业质量调研报告》的分析

高校毕业生就业质量越来越受到国家、社会及学校各方的重视与关注,是高校办学水平高低的重要衡量指标。基于F高校2017-2022届《毕业生就业质量调研报告》发布的相关数据进行描述性统计分析,并运用熵值法对6届毕业生就业质量进行对比分析,剖析依托《毕业生就业质量调研报告》进行就业质量测评存在的诸多问题,进而提出应用型本科高校毕业生就业质量评价指标体系设计思路,并对该指标体系的应用价值进行分析。

数字经济对大学生就业的影响

基于2014、2016、2018、2020四年的中国家庭追踪调查(China Household Tracking Survey, CFPS)数据,运用多元线性回归模型和logistic回归模型探讨数字经济发展指标对大学生的就业率和就业空间选择的影响.研究结果显示,数字经济发展指标,即数字基础设施、数字产业发展、数字化应用程度、数字公共服务对大学生就业率的回归系数均为正值且在1%水平以下显著,数字基础设施、数字产业发展、数字公共服务对大学生就地就业的回归系数均为正值且在5%水平以下显著,说明数字经济的发展对大学生就业率和就业空间具有显著的促进作用.

硕士研究生就业质量评价指标体系构建研究

硕士研究生作为国家培养的高层次人才,具有知识层次高和专业性强等就业特点。构建合理的硕士研究生就业质量评价指标体系有利于推动硕士研究生就业工作的进一步发展。通过扎根理论方法,确定就业率、薪资水平、就业结构、发展空间、工作条件和社会认可度等维度的6个一级指标和16个二级指标。综合运用层次分析法(AHP)和熵权法确定各指标的权重,形成科学的硕士研究生就业质量评价指标体系。在此基础上,从高校、硕士研究生和用人单位等多个方面提出提高硕士研究生就业质量的对策建议。

How farmers’non-agricultural employment affects rural land circulation in China?

To clarify the impact of non-agricultural employment on rural land circulation in China,we built logit models using the Chinese Household Income Project 2013 dataset,which includes 18,948 household samples over 15 provinces,126 cities and 234 counties of China in 2013.We use the proportion of non-agricultural income,the proportion of non-agricultural laborers and non-agricultural fixed operating assets to reflect the degree of the households’dependence on agriculture,the degree of the households’laborers committed to non-agricultural employment and the stability of non-agricultural employment,respectively.The results show that the stability of non-agricultural employment is an important reason for farmers to transfer out their land,and an increase in non-agricultural income is the fundamental reason.The proportion of non-agricultural assets has the greatest impact on the decision to transfer land,followed by the proportion of non-agricultural income.Per unit increase in the non-agricultural income ratio has a stronger effect on the transfer-out decision than it does on the transfer-in decision,which is a 0.09 increase of the probability of transfer-out the land and a 0.07 decrease of the probability of transfer-in the land.In terms of regional differences,when considering the impact of non-agricultural employment on the land transfer-out decision,the impacts of non-agricultural income and labor force are the greatest in the Central region.The impact of non-agricultural assets is the greatest in the Eastern region.For the Eastern region,the decision to transfer out land is mainly affected by non-agricultural assets and the non-agricultural labor force,and the decision to transfer in land is mainly affected by non-agricultural assets.In the Central and Western regions,the decision to transfer out land is mainly affected by non-agricultural assets,non-agricultural income and the non-agricultural labor force,in that order.The decision to transfer in land in the Central region is not significantly affected by non-agricultural employment.The decision to transfer in land in the Western region is mainly affected by non-agricultural assets,non-agricultural labor force and non-agricultural income,in that order.We note that non-agricultural assets have a prominent impact on land transfer,which shows that the stability of non-agricultural employment has an important impact on land transfer decision-making.Vocational training for rural labor forces may be an effective means to promote stable non-agricultural employment and simultaneously facilitate rural land circulation,especially in Central and Western China.

上海市疾病预防控制中心就业见习基地运行效果评估:基于结果链模型

目的 对上海市疾病预防控制中心针对高校毕业学年学生开展的就业见习基地运行效果进行评估,并就提升就业见习工作的效果提出政策建议。方法 构建基于结果链模型的评估指标体系,通过客观资料收集,并对2018—2022年的往届见习学员和带教老师,以及2022年末的在岗见习学员,开展满意度调查,分析和评估上海市疾病预防控制中心就业见习基地运行效果。在此基础上,提出改进就业见习工作的建议与措施。结果 基于结果链模型构建包括5个一级指标、14个二级指标、32个三级指标的评估指标体系,并对2018—2022年上海市疾病预防控制中心就业见习基地的运行效果进行评分,得分84.8分。其中,与上海市疾病预防控制中心就业见习基地相关的未得满分指标有:投入环节,管理体系中的组织架构;产出环节,基地产出中的见习岗位类别;结果环节,见习学员和带教老师的政策认知情况。结论 2018—2022年,上海市疾病预防控制中心就业见习基地运行情况良好,取得了一定的成效,但是仍存在不足。建议通过重视政策宣传,多渠道宣传上海市就业见习政策;完善组织架构,落实事前、事中、事后管理;拓展岗位类别,培养多类型公共卫生人才;延长见习期限,重视实践能力培养等措施加以改进。

基于客观组合赋权的就业质量测度与评价

文章基于就业状况、劳动报酬、就业与社会保障、劳动关系、就业能力、就业环境共6个维度构建了就业质量评价指标体系,运用CRITIC法、熵值法两种客观赋权方法线性组合权重进行赋权,对湖北省2015—2021年的就业质量进行测度与分析。研究发现:湖北省就业质量呈逐年上升趋势;湖北省就业质量发展领域逐步调整变更;就业状况、劳动关系和就业能力是影响湖北省就业质量的重要维度,而劳动关系领域仍存在突出问题;新冠肺炎疫情对2020—2021年湖北省劳动关系、就业状况和就业环境维度造成了明显影响。为推动湖北省成为中部地区高质量就业先行区,需要改善就业状况和劳动关系,提高就业能力。

安徽省农业面源污染的时空演变及影响因素研究——基于空间计量模型

安徽省是中国重要的农业生产基地,农业面源污染是影响安徽生态安全的重要制约因素。采用单元调查法和空间计量法分析2011—2020年安徽省农业污染现状和空间相关性,运用空间杜宾模型探究影响因素。研究发现:(1)2011—2020年安徽省农业面源污染排放总量呈U型,COD、TP排放量与总量相似,TN排放量呈下降趋势。(2)2011、2020年安徽省16个城市的农业面源污染排放总量空间分异特征明显,2020年各市农业面源污染排放总量低于2011年。(3)以不同的2种空间权重矩阵来测算安徽省农业面源污染排放量的空间相关性,证明存在空间正相关性,同质溢出性效应显著。(4)利用空间杜宾模型验证非农业就业比例对农业面源污染起抑制作用,农户家庭收入对农业面源污染起促进作用,二者都有显著的空间溢出效应,并且后者的促进作用大于前者的抑制作用。

高等教育招生-培养-就业联动机制研究综述

建立招生-培养-就业联动机制是近年教育教学改革领域的热点研究问题。围绕联动指标体系和就业率预测模型的研究,既有文献大体从3个方面进行探索。第一,厘清招生、培养、就业的内在关系,构建契合各高校的联动指标体系;第二,优化主客观赋权法,确定指标权重系数,建立招生就业评价模型;第三,将机器学习算法用于就业率分析预测,并以预测精度为标准比较各个模型的优劣。该文从这3个方面对现有文献进行系统梳理,首先,综合3个一级指标、10个二级指标、42个三级指标,提出一套招生-培养-就业联动指标体系;其次,总结已有模型评价方法,以期对指标权重系数进行科学计算;最后,总结已有就业率预测算法,并分析各个预测模型的优劣之处。

数字技术的经济效应研究——基于非竞争型投入占用产出模型的分析

本文利用2000—2018年世界主要经济体的非竞争型投入产出表,构造数字技术的完全国内增加值系数、完全就业系数和经济效应(EDT)指数,测算数字技术的经济效应。结果显示:(1)主要经济体数字技术的经济增长和就业效应呈现相同的变化趋势;(2)中国数字技术的完全就业系数呈现下降趋势,说明劳动生产率不断提高,但与主要发达国家相比,生产率还存在一定的差距;(3)各国的EDT指数均呈现显著上升趋势,相对主要发达国家而言,中国的EDT指数还较低。

贵州农村劳动力非农就业对农业生产效率的影响研究

【目的】农村劳动力非农就业促进了我国经济的持续发展,贵州作为西部欠发达省份,亟须寻求农业提质增效的有关路径。【方法】笔者选取2014—2018年贵州省75个县域面板数据,首先采用Malmquist指数法对贵州动态农业全要素生产率进行测定,然后选取双向固定效应模型探究贵州农村劳动力非农就业如何影响农业生产效率。【结果】贵州农业全要素生产率主要受技术进步的影响,非农就业为农业生产效率带来了显著的正向影响,在经过稳健性检验后结果依然成立。【结论】加强贵州省农业科技创新,助力科研成果转化;加强农村基础设施建设,防止农村劳动力不足;加强对劳动人员的从业引导,提升农村劳动力素质,有助于贵州省农业生产效率的提高,促进贵州省农业科学发展。

学生就业竞争力综合评价指标的建立与系统实现

利用因子分析技术对在校生7个维度的原始数据进行分析和研究,建立就业竞争力综合评价指标并完成了系统开发。该系统可以对大学生进行数据画像并生成全面、真实、可靠的能力分析报告,帮助学生进行人岗匹配,从而找到更加适合自己的工作岗位,同时对企业快速定位人才提供了决策支持,缩短招聘周期,降低招聘成本,提高招聘效率。

基于车站客流特征的城市轨道交通就业中心站点识别方法

目的:城市就业中心布局是表征城市中心体系的重要指标,应从交通视角出发,研究城市就业中心的空间布局及演变规律,这对优化城市空间布局和综合交通体系均具有重要意义。方法:基于深圳市城市轨道交通2015年和2021年的AFC(自动售检票)数据,以深圳轨道交通车公庙换乘站为例分析了该市就业中心周边站点高峰小时的客流特征,提出了城市轨道交通就业中心站点(以下简称“就业中心站”)的定义及城市轨道交通车站就业指数的概念,进而提出了基于城市轨道交通AFC数据识别城市就业中心的技术方法。最后分析了深圳市就业中心站的空间分布特征及其演变规律。结果及结论:就业中心站分为主要就业中心站、次要就业中心站及一般就业中心站3个类别。通过对深圳市就业中心站的识别,可反映就业中心在该市的空间分布情况。就业中心站的产生与发展受城市轨道交通车站的空间区位、沿线用地开发程度、有无城市轨道交通线路引入等因素影响较大。中心城区就业功能的不断集聚是促进城市就业中心发展的关键因素,大体量商业办公建筑的使用及城市轨道交通新线开通均可进一步强化既有城市就业中心的功能。

农村相对贫困群体就业创业能力影响指标体系研究——基于职业教育的视角

乡村振兴背景下,职业教育服务农村相对贫困群体存在适应性实践困境,职业教育类型特征对农村相对贫困群体就业创业能力提升有重要影响。课题组构建了基于职业教育的农村相对贫困群体就业创业能力影响指标体系,并据此提出了强化立德树人、加快职业教育内涵建设改革、延展职业教育内涵外延等系列促进职业教育高质量发展的对策。