Prediction of Trend between Water Environment Pollution of D Lake and Death Rate of Malignancy in Population

Grey system analysis method was used to study the correlation between water pollution in D Lake area and death rate of malignancy with death rate of malignancy as effect sequence and a variety of water pollution index as factor sequence. On the basis of grey correlation analysis, grey system predication model was established for death rate of malignancy in population in D Lake area including GM (1, N) model for death rate of malignancy [ MR (t+1) =(9.9987E 1+5.0001E 2 +10.8994E 3+1.1114E 4+165.1029) ·e -0.0070t -9.9987E 1-5.0001E 2-10.8994E 3-1.1114E 4 ] and GM (1, 1) model for related factors [ E 1(t+1) =52.1214-46.9468e -0.0058t , E 2(t+1) =4.6114-4.5664e 0.0015t, E 3(t+1) =1.1389-1.1212e 0.0065t , E 4(t+1) = 554.5867-549.8006e 0.0016t ], and the trend of death rate of malignancy from 2000 to 2010 was predicted.

An SIRS Epidemic Model with Pulse Vaccination, Birth Pulse and Logistic Death Rate

In this paper, we propose an SIRS epidemic model with pulse vaccination, birth pulse and Logistic death rate. By using the stroboscopic map of a discrete dynamical system, the disease-free periodic solution (DFPS for short) of the model under pulse vaccination and birth pulse is obtained. Based on the Floquet theory and comparison theorem of impulsive differential equations, the global asymptotic stability of the DFPS is given, and sufficient conditions for the permanence of the model are obtained. In addition, numerical simulations are done to confirm our theoretical results.

Scaling in Rate-Changeable Birth and Death Processes with Random Removals

We propose a monomer birth-death model with random removals, in which an aggregate of size k can produce a new monomer at a time-dependent rate I（t）k or lose one monomer at a rate J（t）k, and with a probability P（t） an aggregate of any size is randomly removed. We then anedytically investigate the kinetic evolution of the model by means of the rate equation. The results show that the scaling behavior of the aggregate size distribution is dependent crucially on the net birth rate I（t） - J（t） as well as the birth rate I（t）. The aggregate size distribution can approach a standard or modified scaling form in some cases, but it may take a scale-free form in other cases. Moreover, the species can survive finally only if either I（t） - J（t） ≥ P（t） or [J（t） ＋ P（t） - I（t）]t ≈ 0 at t ≥ 1; otherwise, it will become extinct.

COVID-19 Pandemic Waves in Italy: An Epidemiological Overview about Infections, Swabs and Death Rates

Introduction: On March 11, 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared that the entire World was overrun by a pandemic. Science has managed, in a short time, to characterize a new disease, sequence a new viral genome, develop diagnostics, produce treatment protocols and establish the efficacy of drugs and vaccines in randomized controlled trials. In this paper we have dealt with different topics regarding the pandemic linked to COVID-19. Objectives: Aim of this paper is to compare the number of deaths attributable to COVID-19, that occurred in the different Italian macro-areas, in the different pandemic waves;we studied the trend of the curves relating to the proportion of deaths to the number of infected in the Italian macro-areas for the pandemic waves and analysed the mortality data, focusing on the Italian context and comparing it with other foreign countries. We examined the data regarding swabs, hospitalizations, home isolation, admissions to intensive care and deaths registered in pandemic period. Results: Geographically, Italy was differently affected by the pandemic. Northern Italy was the most affected area. In comparison with some foreign countries, Italy is one of the nations that paid the most in terms of deaths, due to: delays in understanding the seriousness of the emergency;the slow management in the tracking systems of contagions;the high number of hospitalizations;a corporate organizational system poorly planned. Conclusion: The years 2020 and 2021 have been dramatic and unprecedented. The year 2021 was the year of redemption, where, despite social, economic and health difficulties, thanks to mass vaccination, we were able to give a real strong response to the pandemic. Trust in science has led to a drastic decrease in mortality throughout the world.

Effectiveness and tolerability of programmed cell death protein-1 inhibitor+chemotherapy compared to chemotherapy for upper gastrointestinal tract cancers

BACKGROUND The combination of programmed cell death protein-1(PD-1)inhibitor and che-motherapy is approved as a standard first-or second-line treatment in patients with advanced oesophageal or gastric cancer.However,it is unclear whether this combination is superior to chemotherapy alone.AIM To assess the comparative effectiveness and tolerability of combining PD-1 inhibitors with chemotherapy vs chemotherapy alone in patients with advanced gastric cancer,gastroesophageal junction(GEJ)cancer,or oesophageal carcinoma.METHODS We searched the PubMed and Embase databases for studies that compared the efficacy and tolerance of PD-1 inhibitors in combination with chemotherapy vs chemotherapy alone in patients with advanced oesophageal or gastric cancer.We employed either random or fixed models to analyze the outcomes of each clinical trial,en-compassing data on overall survival(OS),progression-free survival(PFS),objective response rate,and adverse events(AEs).RESULTS Nine phase 3 clinical trials(7016 advanced oesophageal and gastric cancer patients)met the inclusion criteria.Our meta-analysis demonstrated that the pooled PD-1 inhibitor+chemotherapy group had a significantly longer OS than the chemotherapy-alone group[hazard ratio(HR)=0.76,95%confidence interval(CI):0.71-0.81];the pooled PFS result was consistent with that of OS(HR=0.67,95%CI:0.61-0.74).The count of patients achieving an objective response in the PD-1 inhibitor+chemotherapy group surpassed that of the chemotherapy-alone group[odds ratio(OR)=1.86,95%CI:1.59-2.18].AE incidence was also higher in the combination-therapy group than in the chemotherapy-alone group,regardless of whether≥grade 3 only(OR=1.30,95%CI:1.07-1.57)or all AE grades(OR=1.88,95%CI:1.39-2.54)were examined.We performed a subgroup analysis based on the programmed death-ligand 1(PD-L1)combined positive score(CPS)and noted extended OS and PFS durations within the CPS≥1,CPS≥5,and CPS≥10 subgroups of the PD-1 inhibitor+chemotherapy group.CONCLUSION In contrast to chemotherapy alone,the combination of PD-1 inhibitor and chemotherapy appears to present a more favorable option for initial or subsequent treatment in patients with gastric cancer,GEJ tumor,or oesophageal cancer.This holds true particularly for individuals with PD-L1 CPS scores of≥5 and≥10.

Bootstrap抽样下基于贝叶斯估计的地震人员死亡评估研究

选取1950-2022年中国内地地区历史震例数据信息,以极震区烈度、发震时间及人口密度为主要影响因素,建立三级场景,运用Bootstrap抽样方法对各场景下的历史震例进行扩充,进而采用贝叶斯估计给出不同场景下地震人员死亡变化分布函数,再根据实际情况对此分布函数进行截断分析,以明确地震人员死亡的不确定性变化范围及死亡率区间概率值,最后随机选取历史地震灾害事件验证模型精度。结果表明:①各场景的死亡率均值及95%死亡率区间基本符合在极震区烈度相等并且人口密度条件下夜间死亡率大于白天死亡率的规律;②模型估计死亡人数区间能够较好覆盖实际上报的死亡人数。

Infant mortality rate in Al-Ramadi province from 2000 through 2010, retrospective study

Objectives: To determine the IMR in Al-Ramadi province, the center of Al-Anbar Governorate, Western Iraq, from 2000-2010 with rate comparison of the three different stages of that period. Methods: Data collected from the birth and death certificate center in Al-Ramadi province, Western Iraq, included;name, age, sex, residence, date of birth and death, in three different stages (the first stage 2000-2002, the second stage 2003-2007, and the third stage 2008-2010) in a study period from July to December, 2010. The IMRs were analyzed and compared with other studies. Results: The IMR of the last 3 years of sanction was 54.3/1000, 55.7/1000 and 50.6/1000 respectively, this rate had been increased in the war and violence period to reach its maximum rate 58.6/1000 in 2006, then decreased to reach its minimum rate 44.5/1000 in 2008. Approximately two-third of deaths occurred during the neonatal period and one third in the post neonatal period. Males had higher IMR than females, and rural residence higher than urban. Conclusion: Infant mortality rate is still high in Al-Ramadi province, since the American invasion (2003-2007), when compared with other developing countries. This study found increase of IMR in Al-Ramadi province during that period more than other studied years.

Early detection of sudden cardiac death by using classical linear techniques and time-frequency methods on electrocardiogram signals

Early detection of sudden cardiac death may be used for surviving the life of cardiac patients. In this paper we have investigated an algorithm to detect and predict sudden cardiac death, by processing of heart rate variability signal through the classical and time-frequency methods. At first, one minute of ECG signals, just before the cardiac death event are extracted and used to compute heart rate variability (HRV) signal. Five features in time domain and four features in frequency domain are extracted from the HRV signal and used as classical linear features. Then the Wigner Ville transform is applied to the HRV signal, and 11 extra features in the time-frequency (TF) domain are obtained. In order to improve the performance of classification, the principal component analysis (PCA) is applied to the obtained features vector. Finally a neural network classifier is applied to the reduced features. The obtained results show that the TF method can classify normal and SCD subjects, more efficiently than the classical methods. A MIT-BIH ECG database was used to evaluate the proposed method. The proposed method was implemented using MLP classifier and had 74.36% and 99.16% correct detection rate (accuracy) for classical features and TF method, respectively. Also, the accuracy of the KNN classifier were 73.87% and 96.04%.

Kinetics of aggregation growth with competition between catalyzed birth and catalyzed death

An aggregation growth model of three species A, B and C with the competition between catalyzed birth and catalyzed death is proposed. Irreversible aggregation occurs between any two aggregates of the like species with theconstant rate kernels In（n = 1,2, 3）. Meanwhile, a monomer birth of an A species aggregate of size k occurs under the catalysis of a B species aggregate of size j with the catalyzed birth rate kernel K（k, j） = Kkj^v, and a monomer death of an A species aggregate of size k occurs under the catalysis of a C species aggregate of size j with the catalyzed death rate kernel L（k, j） = Lkj^v, whcre v is a parameter reflecting the dependence of the catalysis reaction rates of birth and death on the size of catalyst aggregate. The kinetic evolution behaviours of the three species are investigated by the rate equation approach based on the mean-field theory. The form of the aggregate size distribution of A species ak （t） is found to be dependent crucially on the competition between the catalyzed birth and death of A species, as well as the irreversible aggregation processes of the three species： （i） In the v 〈 0 case, the irreversible aggregation dominates the process, and ak（t） satisfies the conventional scaling form; （2） In the v ≥ 0 casc, the competition between the catalyzed birth and death dominates the process. When the catalyzed birth controls the process, ak（t） takes the conventional or generalized scaling form. While the catalyzed death controls the process, the scaling description of the aggregate size distribution breaks down completely.

Assessment of Cardiac Autonomic Function by Using Heart Rate Turbulence in Behcet’s Disease

Behcet’s disease (BD) is a chronic inflammatory disorder that can affect many systems in the body. Cardiac involvement increases the risk of cardiovascular mortality and occurs in 1%-5% of patients with BD. Ventricular arrythmias are believed to be the cause of this increased risk of cardiovascular mortality and it is also thought to be related with cardiac autonomic dysfunction. Heart rate turbulence (HRT) is a new predictor of cardiac autonomic activity. HRT is an independent and powerful predictor of mortality. In this study, we investigated the cardiac autonomic activity which can be determined by HRT in patients with BD. Forty patients with BD (20 men, mean age: 40 ± 9 years, range: 27-55 years) were diagnosed according to the International Study Group Criteria (ISGC) and gender and age matched healthy volunteers (20 men, mean age: 39 ± 8 years, range: 26-56 years) were included in this study. All of the participants (patients and controls) underwent 24 hours Holter electrocardiogram. HRT parameters, turbulence onset (TO) and turbulence slope (TS) were calculated with HRT (View Version 0.60-0.1 of Software Program). There were no significant differences in TO and TS values between patients with BD and control subject (TO-BD: 0.014 ± 0.03, TO-Control: 0.011 ± 0.04;TS-BD: 7.88 ± 4.9, TS-Control: 9.42 ± 6.7 respectively). Although increased cardiovascular mortality rates in BD have been shown in many studies, HRT values—detecting the risk of sudden death—do not seem to be altered in this disease.

Analysis of Cause of Death in Inner Mongolia of China, 2008-2014

Objective: The aim of our study was to analyze the character of cause of death in Inner Mongolia of China from 2008 to 2014. Methods: We collected data from monitoring points of the Death Registry System (DRS) in Inner Mongolia. We calculated the mortality rates by gender, year and age-specific. We calculated the proportion, the mortality rate and potential years of life lost (PYLL) of various system deaths. Results: During the period 2008-2014, the average crude mortality rate of all cause of death was 539.33/105. The mortality rate increased semilogarithm linearly with age. The top four system deaths were circulatory system, neoplasm, respiratory system and injury. In 2014, the mortality rates of circulatory system were increased and the mortality rates of certain infectious and parasitic diseases, neoplasms, respiratory system, genitourinary system and injury were decreased compared to those in 2008. Conclusion: Through analysis the indicators of proportion, the mortality rate and PYLL indicated that health status of a population in Inner Mongolia was at a better level.

The Significance of Angiotensin Converting Enzyme Inhibitor or Angiotensin II Receptor Blocker Use in Sudden Cardiac Death

Objectives: To investigate the relationship between the use of angiotensin converting enzyme (ACE) inhibitor or angiotensin II receptor blocker (ARB) and hyperkalemia in patients diagnosed with sudden cardiac death. Methods: We examined oral ACE inhibitor or ARB use among cardiopulmonary arrest patients brought by ambulance to our emergency room during a 5-year period from January 2012 to December 2016. The cause of death was determined to be sudden cardiac death, despite temporary return of spontaneous circulation after starting cardiopulmonary resuscitation. Subjects were dichotomized into 2 groups, those taking and those not taking an ACE inhibitor or ARB. Variables determined retrospectively included serum potassium, estimated glomerular filtration rate as an index of kidney function and time from cardiopulmonary arrest to return of spontaneous circulation. The Mann-Whitney U-test was used to compare continuous data, and the chi-square test to compare categorical data between groups. The results are expressed as the median plus range. Statistical significance was assumed at p Results: Thirty-five patients met the inclusion criteria. The mean age was 77.1 years (range, 35 - 93 years), and there were 26 males and 9 females. Eleven subjects were ACE inhibitor or ARB users, and 24 were non-users. The serum potassium level was significantly higher in users than non-users (median, 6.2 mEq/L (range, 4.5 - 10.0) vs. 5.2 mEq/L (range, 3.6 - 8.3);p = 0.001). The estimated glomerular filtration rate was significantly lower in users than non-users (median, 25.1 mL/min/1.73 m2 (range, 4.6 - 60.3) vs. 46.9 mL/min/1.73 m2 (range, 19.8 - 97.1);p = 0.009). There was no significant difference in time from cardiopulmonary arrest to return of spontaneous circulation between the 2 groups (median, 24 minutes (range, 3 - 111) vs. 29 minutes (range, 10 - 54);p = 0.355). Conclusion: It is possible that hyperkalemia induced by ACE inhibitor or ARB use is a cause of sudden cardiac death, especially in patients with chronic kidney disease.

Burning rate analysis of laser controlled 5-aminotetrazole propellant

As an innovative propulsion technique, laser augmented chemical propulsion(LACP) seems superior to the traditional ones. However, the corresponding combustion theories have still to be ascertained for LACP. Burning rate of 5-aminotetrazole(5-ATZ) propellant has been studied by testing pressed samples under different combustor pressures and laser powers. Based on micro computed tomography(Micro CT),an advanced thickness-over-time(TOT) method to characterize the regression of the produced nonplanar burning surface is established. Because of a shell structure covering the combustion surface,the burning rate of the implemented 5-ATZ propellant is not constant during laser ablation. Resorting to functional fitting, a new law of non-constant burning including the effect of the observed unique burning surface structures is proposed. Accordingly, applicable combustion conditions of 5-ATZ based propellants have been preliminarily speculated for future research activities.

Haemodynamic management in brain death donors:Influence of aetiology of brain death

BACKGROUND In brain death donors(BDDs),donor management is the key in the complex donation process.Donor management goals,which are standards of care or clinical parameters,have been considered an acceptable barometer of successful donor management.AIM To test the hypothesis that aetiology of brain death could influence haemodynamic management in BDDs.METHODS Haemodynamic data(blood pressure,heart rate,central venous pressure,lactate,urine output,and vasoactive drugs)of BDDs were recorded on intensive care unit(ICU)admission and during the 6-h observation period(Time 1 at the beginning;Time 2 at the end).RESULTS The study population was divided into three groups according to the aetiology of brain death:Stroke(n=71),traumatic brain injury(n=48),and postanoxic encephalopathy(n=19).On ICU admission,BDDs with postanoxic encephalopathy showed the lowest values of systolic and diastolic blood pressure associated with higher values of heart rate and lactate and a higher need of norepinephrine and other vasoactive drugs.At the beginning of the 6-h period(Time 1),BDDs with postanoxic encephalopathy showed higher values of heart rate,lactate,and central venous pressure together with a higher need of other vasoactive drugs.CONCLUSION According to our data,haemodynamic management of BDDs is affected by the aetiology of brain death.BDDs with postanoxic encephalopathy have higher requirements for norepinephrine and other vasoactive drugs.

振荡频率对曼氏无针乌贼成体死亡率及生存状态的影响

为提高曼氏无针乌贼增殖放流运输过程的存活率,在实验室条件下研究了0、60、100、120、140和160 r/min振荡频率对成体曼氏无针乌贼死亡率、乳酸、糖原含量及酶活性的影响。结果显示,除160 r/min死亡率略有下降外,其他组随着频率的增高死亡率升高,频率120、140 r/min时死亡率最高为91.7%,显著高于0、60、100 r/min处理组。死亡时间主要分布在振荡后的4~8 h,频率越低乌贼出现死亡的时间越晚,160 r/min率先在2 h出现死亡个体。除个别组出现波动外,随着频率的增大,两种组织(肌肉、肝脏)的糖原含量降低,而乳酸含量增大,140 r/min处理组糖原、乳酸含量与对照组间差异显著。除60 r/min处理组外,随着频率的增加,肝脏组织中的谷丙转氨酶(ALT)、谷草转氨酶(GOT)活性降低,超氧化物歧化酶(SOD)活性增加,且120、140、160 r/min处理组3种酶活性与其他组间差异显著。碱性磷酸酶(ALP)活性随着频率的增加而升高,140和160r/min处理组与其他组间差异显著。乌贼死亡率与SOD、肌肉乳酸含量、ALP之间极显著正相关,与肌肉糖原含量、GOT和ALT活性、消化腺糖原含量之间极显著负相关。研究表明,频率显著影响乌贼的存活率,能量耗尽和肝脏损伤可能是乌贼运输过程高死亡率的主要原因,运输过程建议振荡频率小于100 r/min且运输时间小于3 h,尽量避免较大程度的晃动。本研究可为曼氏无针乌贼成体的增殖放流运输过程提供技术支撑。

运动后心率恢复与心源性猝死风险的相关性:一项队列研究的Meta分析

目的通过Meta分析,综合分析运动后心率恢复(HRR)与心源性猝死(SCD)之间的关系。方法基于PubMed、Embase和Web of Science数据库,进行截至2024年1月2日的文献检索。队列研究关注于HRR和SCD间的风险关系,通过风险比(HR)及95%可信区间(CI)进行评估。统计学分析采用Stata 12.0软件。结果纳入6项研究。固定效应模型(I^(2)=41.8%,P=0.112)的汇总结果显示:与心率恢复慢相比,心率恢复快人群发生SCD风险更低(HR=0.74,95%CI:0.64~0.86,P<0.001)。大多数亚组分析中都观察到了持续结果。排除一项研究并不影响总体结果[HR(95%CI):0.66(0.55,0.79)~0.76(0.65,0.88)]。Egger检验未发现明显的发表偏倚(P=0.059)。结论心率恢复较慢会增加普通人群发生SCD的风险。因此,HRR可能是临床实践中预防SCD的一个潜在靶点。

2016-2021年北京市5岁以下儿童死亡变化趋势及死因研究

目的 分析2016-2021年北京市5岁以下儿童死亡率(U5MR)变化趋势及主要死因,为制定、调整干预策略提供依据。方法 提取北京市妇幼保健网络信息系统中2016-2021年5岁以下儿童死亡监测数据,对北京市U5MR和不同年龄组死亡率变化趋势及主要死因进行回顾性分析。结果 2016-2021年北京市U5MR呈下降趋势,2021年下降至2.24‰,已达到国际领先水平。5岁以下儿童各年龄组中,新生儿死亡率(NMR)下降速度最快,年度变化百分比(APC)为-8.98%(95%CI:-13.14%~-5.59%),是2016-2021年北京市U5MR下降的主要原因;而1~<5岁儿童死亡率呈上升趋势(APC=13.50%,95%CI:1.06%~27.51%)。2016-2021年早产或低出生体重(APC=-14.00%,95%CI:-23.51%~-6.38%)和其他新生儿疾病死亡率(APC=-25.91%,95%CI:-44.69%~-12.43%),呈下降趋势;意外伤害死亡率呈上升趋势(APC=12.34%,95%CI:5.11%~19.72%)。2021年主要死因中,远郊地区先天异常、意外伤害、早产或低出生体重和出生窒息死亡率均高于城市地区。2016-2021年,城市地区和远郊地区早产或低出生体重死亡率均呈下降趋势,城市地区出生窒息和远郊地区其他新生儿病死亡率呈下降趋势;城市地区意外伤害和肺炎死亡率呈上升趋势。结论 北京市在降低NMR以及降低早产或低出生体重和其他新生儿病等疾病死亡率方面成果显著,但同时还应重视意外伤害、先天异常和出生窒息等主要死因防控,并加强对1~<5岁儿童群体的关注。

西非国家2009年与2019年居民健康预期寿命及死亡状况比较及对中非卫生合作的启示

目的:比较西非国家2009年和2019年各国居民健康预期寿命及死亡状况,为后续规划与布局新时期的中非健康卫生合作,开展精准的援助项目提供数据支持。方法:基于2019年全球疾病负担研究(GBD 2019),收集和比较西非15个国家2009年和2019年健康预期寿命,传染病、母婴疾病和营养缺乏性疾病,慢性病及伤害的死亡变化情况。结果:与2009年相比,2019年西非15个国家的居民健康预期寿命有所增加,其中佛得角的居民健康预期寿命最高(64.6岁),几内亚比绍最低(53.6岁);2019年西非15个国家传染病、母婴疾病和营养缺乏性疾病的标化死亡率较2009年均显著下降;佛得角、布基纳法索和冈比亚的慢性病标化死亡率有所增加;布基纳法索和马里的伤害标化死亡率有所增加,尼日尔保持不变;其他国家的慢性病和伤害标化死亡率有所下降。与2009年相比,西非国家2019年传染病、母婴和营养缺乏性疾病死因占比均有所下降,但在多数国家的死因占比依然超过50%;其中,佛得角是唯一慢性病死因占比多于传染病、母婴和营养缺乏性疾病(72.2%vs.17.9%)的国家;2019年孕产妇疾病、麻疹和艾滋病等传染病死因顺位较2009年下降明显,而多种慢性病(如糖尿病、慢性肾脏疾病)的死因顺位有所上升。结论:在过去10年间,西非国家在国民健康状况方面取得了一些进步,但健康预期寿命仍相对偏低,面临着传染病和慢性非传染病双重威胁,而伤害死亡率也依然较高;中非健康卫生合作的援助内容和方式应根据受援国情况,因地制宜、精准施策。

2010—2021年北京市朝阳区四类慢性病早死概率及疾病负担分析

目的了解2010—2021年北京市朝阳区四类慢性病(心脑血管疾病、恶性肿瘤、糖尿病和慢性呼吸系统疾病)早死概率、疾病负担情况及变化趋势,为慢性病防控策略制定提供参考依据。方法收集2010—2021年北京市朝阳区居民死亡登记资料和人口资料,计算四类慢性病粗死亡率、标化死亡率、早死概率、早死寿命损失年(year of life lost,YLL),通过平均年度变化百分比(average annual percent change,AAPC)来分析各指标的变化趋势。结果2010—2021年朝阳区四类慢性病死亡数占总死亡数的82.74%;四类慢性病粗死亡率呈上升趋势(AAPC=2.12%,P<0.001),男性四类慢性病粗死亡率高于女性;总人群和女性标化死亡率呈下降趋势(总人群AAPC=-3.15%,女性AAPC=-2.27%,P均<0.05)。2010—2021年朝阳区总人群和女性早死概率均呈现下降趋势(总人群AAPC=-1.19%,女性AAPC=-2.57%,P均<0.05),总人群、男性早死概率距离“健康中国2030”早死概率目标值还有一定空间。2010—2021年朝阳区四类慢性病YLL逐年增长,总人群和男性YLL率逐年上升(总人群AAPC=1.11%,男性AAPC=1.72%,P均<0.001),男女性标化YLL率均逐年下降(男性AAPC=-1.98%,女性AAPC=-3.63%,P均<0.05)。结论朝阳区四类慢性病早死危害依然较大,距离实现2030年目标还有一定距离,建议进一步加强慢性病综合防控,采取有针对性的干预措施,降低人群尤其是男性四类慢性病造成的早死危害,促进“健康中国2030”目标的实现。

2016—2021年四川省自杀死亡率及疾病负担趋势分析

目的了解2016—2021年四川省居民自杀死亡率及疾病负担变化,为开展自杀预防提供建议。方法采用SAS 9.4软件计算死亡率、标化死亡率、早死寿命损失年(YLL)、平均寿命损失年(AYLL)和年度变化百分比(APC),趋势分析采用年度变化百分比。结果2016、2021年四川省自杀死亡率与标化死亡率分别为7.44/10万与6.65/10万、7.35/10万与6.14/10万,2016—2021年死亡率与标化死亡率变化趋势均无统计学意义(P均>0.05),但2018—2021年有明显上升趋势(APC=5.57%,t=6.668,P=0.022)。男性历年自杀死亡率高于女性,男、女性自杀死亡率和标化死亡率变化趋势同总体,先下降后上升,上升有统计学意义。2016—2021年农村地区历年自杀死亡率均高于城市,城乡历年变化趋势无统计学意义。自杀死亡率9岁后即有发生,随年龄的增长而增高,5~<15岁组自杀死亡率有明显的上升趋势,≥65岁组在2016—2021年有明显的下降趋势,趋势有统计学意义(APC=-4.23%,t=-5.927,P=0.004)。2016、2021年四川省自杀导致的YLL率与AYLL分别为2.67‰与35.85年、2.64‰与35.86年,2018—2021年YLL率和AYLL有明显上升趋势。YLL率男性高于女性,农村高于城市。城市AYLL高于农村,农村AYLL先下降后上升,2018—2021年有上升趋势(APC=1.54%,t=4.979,P=0.038),其余变化趋势无统计学意义。结论四川省自杀死亡率较高,导致的疾病负担重,男性、农村居民、城市低年龄组是自杀发生的重点人群,应重视这些人群的预防控制。