[Objectives]To analyze the changes in of forest carbon sink and forestry economic development,provide reference for relevant management decisions,ecological governance and resource and environment management,and promo...[Objectives]To analyze the changes in of forest carbon sink and forestry economic development,provide reference for relevant management decisions,ecological governance and resource and environment management,and promote the development of green low-carbon economy in China.[Methods]Based on the data of six forest resource inventories from 1989 to 2018 and related studies,the comprehensive evaluation model of forest carbon sink and forestry economic development,the coupling degree model of forest carbon sink and forestry economic development,and the coupling coordination degree model of forest carbon sink and forestry economic development were adopted.The coupling degree of forest carbon sink and forestry economic development from 1992 to 2018 was analyzed.Stepwise regression and ARIMA model were used to analyze the influencing factors and lagging characteristics of forest carbon sink.The coupling degree between forest carbon sink and forestry economic development in China from 2019 to 2030 was predicted by autoregression and ADF test.The coupling between forest carbon sink and forestry economic development in China and its long-term change characteristics were also discussed in this study.[Results](i)The investment of ecological construction and protection,the actual investment of forestry key ecological projects,GDP and the import of forest products had a significant impact on forest resources carbon stock.The total output value of forestry industry,the actually completed investment of forestry key ecological projects and the export volume of forest products had a significant impact on the forest carbon sink,and the actually completed investment of forestry key ecological projects has the greatest impact on the two.(ii)The impact of actually completed investment of forestry key ecological projects had a lag of 2 years on the forest resources carbon stock and a lag of 1 year on the forest carbon sink.When investing in forest carbon sink,it is necessary to make a good plan in advance,and do a good job in forest resources management and time optimization.(iii)From 1992 to 2018,the coupling degree of forest resources carbon stock,forest carbon sink and long-term development of forestry economy in China was gradually increasing.Although there were some fluctuations in the middle time,the coupling degree of forest resources carbon stock and the long-term development of forestry economy increased by 9.24%annually,and the degree of coupling coordination increased from"serious imbalance"in 1992 to"high-quality coordination"in 2018.From 1993 to 2018,the coupling degree of forest carbon sink and long-term development of forestry economy increased by 9.63%annually,slightly faster than the coupling coordination degree of forest resources carbon stock and long-term development of forestry economy.The coordination level also rose from level 2 in 1993 to level 10 in 2018.(iv)The prediction shows that the coupling coordination degree of forest resources carbon stock,forest carbon sink and the long-term development of forestry economy would increase from 2019 to 2030.The coupling coordination degree(D)values of both were close to 1,the coordination level was also 10 for a long time,and the degree of coupling coordination was also maintained at the"high-quality coordination"level for a long time.[Conclusions]Forest has multiple benefits of society,economy and ecology,and forest carbon sink is only a benefit output.The long-term coupling analysis of forest carbon sink and forestry economic development is a key point to multiple benefit analysis.The analysis shows that the spillover effect and co-evolution effect of forest carbon sink in China are significant.From 1992 to 2018,the coupling coordination degree of forest carbon sink and forestry economic development was gradually rising.The prediction analysis also indicate that the coupling coordination degree between the forest carbon sink and the long-term development of forestry economy will remain at the level of"high-quality coordination"for a long time from 2019 to 2030.Therefore,improving the level of forest management and maintaining the current trend of increasing forest resources are the key to achieving the goal of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality in China.展开更多
The study of China s carbon emissions and carbon sequestration potential is of great practical significance to the formulation of carbon neutrality strategies and methods of China.Carbon emission is an inevitable outc...The study of China s carbon emissions and carbon sequestration potential is of great practical significance to the formulation of carbon neutrality strategies and methods of China.Carbon emission is an inevitable outcome of the initial stage of economic development,especially the right of developing countries existence and development.The carbon emission of China has been maintained at a low level for a long time and reached the top of the world in 2005.However,per capita carbon emission was still only 46.28%of the United States in 2016.China s total CO_(2) emissions are expected to reach 17-19 Gt/a by 2030.To achieve the goal of carbon neutrality in 2060,the main problems are the low technical capacity of emission reduction and the unreasonable structure of energy consumption.Therefore,replacing coal with gas is one of the most effective ways of emission reduction.By 2060,the carbon sequestration capacity of forest vegetation will reach or exceed 759.14 Mt/a and the CO_(2) sequestration capacity will reach 2783.5 Mt/a.According to that,China s carbon intensity must reduce by 95.39%on the basis of the carbon intensity in 2017,reaching 640 t/100 million yuan.The carbon sequestration capacity of terrestrial vegetation(forest,grassland)will reach or exceed 1380.3 Mt/a and the CO_(2) sequestration capacity will reach 5069.3 Mt/a.According to that,China s carbon intensity must reduce by 91.07%on the basis of the carbon intensity in 2017,reach 1152 t C per 100 million yuan.展开更多
碳交易机制下,虚拟电厂(virtual power plant,VPP)聚合分布式能源(distributed energy resource,DER)参与电力市场(electricity market,EM)交易有助于新能源消纳与提升环境效益。为此,首先,构建风电、光伏、可控分布式电源、储能及柔性...碳交易机制下,虚拟电厂(virtual power plant,VPP)聚合分布式能源(distributed energy resource,DER)参与电力市场(electricity market,EM)交易有助于新能源消纳与提升环境效益。为此,首先,构建风电、光伏、可控分布式电源、储能及柔性负荷的多主体VPP模型,并制定各主体参与电能量市场(electric energy market,EEM)和调峰市场(peak regulating market,PRM)竞标策略。通过EEM及PRM算例展现了VPP参与调峰竞标实现VPP效益最大化及各DER成员利益的合理分配。其次,引入碳交易机制,分析碳交易价格变化与风光消纳率、碳排放量及VPP收益之间的关联性。最后,进一步探索碳汇资源交易对电力价格、产量及能源需求变化率的影响,为碳汇价值的生态保护补偿机制提供依据,也为电−碳市场协同下碳市场(carbon market,CM)对EM的价格传导效应及CM价格机制的优化设计提供参考。展开更多
基金Supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China(72173011).
文摘[Objectives]To analyze the changes in of forest carbon sink and forestry economic development,provide reference for relevant management decisions,ecological governance and resource and environment management,and promote the development of green low-carbon economy in China.[Methods]Based on the data of six forest resource inventories from 1989 to 2018 and related studies,the comprehensive evaluation model of forest carbon sink and forestry economic development,the coupling degree model of forest carbon sink and forestry economic development,and the coupling coordination degree model of forest carbon sink and forestry economic development were adopted.The coupling degree of forest carbon sink and forestry economic development from 1992 to 2018 was analyzed.Stepwise regression and ARIMA model were used to analyze the influencing factors and lagging characteristics of forest carbon sink.The coupling degree between forest carbon sink and forestry economic development in China from 2019 to 2030 was predicted by autoregression and ADF test.The coupling between forest carbon sink and forestry economic development in China and its long-term change characteristics were also discussed in this study.[Results](i)The investment of ecological construction and protection,the actual investment of forestry key ecological projects,GDP and the import of forest products had a significant impact on forest resources carbon stock.The total output value of forestry industry,the actually completed investment of forestry key ecological projects and the export volume of forest products had a significant impact on the forest carbon sink,and the actually completed investment of forestry key ecological projects has the greatest impact on the two.(ii)The impact of actually completed investment of forestry key ecological projects had a lag of 2 years on the forest resources carbon stock and a lag of 1 year on the forest carbon sink.When investing in forest carbon sink,it is necessary to make a good plan in advance,and do a good job in forest resources management and time optimization.(iii)From 1992 to 2018,the coupling degree of forest resources carbon stock,forest carbon sink and long-term development of forestry economy in China was gradually increasing.Although there were some fluctuations in the middle time,the coupling degree of forest resources carbon stock and the long-term development of forestry economy increased by 9.24%annually,and the degree of coupling coordination increased from"serious imbalance"in 1992 to"high-quality coordination"in 2018.From 1993 to 2018,the coupling degree of forest carbon sink and long-term development of forestry economy increased by 9.63%annually,slightly faster than the coupling coordination degree of forest resources carbon stock and long-term development of forestry economy.The coordination level also rose from level 2 in 1993 to level 10 in 2018.(iv)The prediction shows that the coupling coordination degree of forest resources carbon stock,forest carbon sink and the long-term development of forestry economy would increase from 2019 to 2030.The coupling coordination degree(D)values of both were close to 1,the coordination level was also 10 for a long time,and the degree of coupling coordination was also maintained at the"high-quality coordination"level for a long time.[Conclusions]Forest has multiple benefits of society,economy and ecology,and forest carbon sink is only a benefit output.The long-term coupling analysis of forest carbon sink and forestry economic development is a key point to multiple benefit analysis.The analysis shows that the spillover effect and co-evolution effect of forest carbon sink in China are significant.From 1992 to 2018,the coupling coordination degree of forest carbon sink and forestry economic development was gradually rising.The prediction analysis also indicate that the coupling coordination degree between the forest carbon sink and the long-term development of forestry economy will remain at the level of"high-quality coordination"for a long time from 2019 to 2030.Therefore,improving the level of forest management and maintaining the current trend of increasing forest resources are the key to achieving the goal of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality in China.
文摘The study of China s carbon emissions and carbon sequestration potential is of great practical significance to the formulation of carbon neutrality strategies and methods of China.Carbon emission is an inevitable outcome of the initial stage of economic development,especially the right of developing countries existence and development.The carbon emission of China has been maintained at a low level for a long time and reached the top of the world in 2005.However,per capita carbon emission was still only 46.28%of the United States in 2016.China s total CO_(2) emissions are expected to reach 17-19 Gt/a by 2030.To achieve the goal of carbon neutrality in 2060,the main problems are the low technical capacity of emission reduction and the unreasonable structure of energy consumption.Therefore,replacing coal with gas is one of the most effective ways of emission reduction.By 2060,the carbon sequestration capacity of forest vegetation will reach or exceed 759.14 Mt/a and the CO_(2) sequestration capacity will reach 2783.5 Mt/a.According to that,China s carbon intensity must reduce by 95.39%on the basis of the carbon intensity in 2017,reaching 640 t/100 million yuan.The carbon sequestration capacity of terrestrial vegetation(forest,grassland)will reach or exceed 1380.3 Mt/a and the CO_(2) sequestration capacity will reach 5069.3 Mt/a.According to that,China s carbon intensity must reduce by 91.07%on the basis of the carbon intensity in 2017,reach 1152 t C per 100 million yuan.
文摘碳交易机制下,虚拟电厂(virtual power plant,VPP)聚合分布式能源(distributed energy resource,DER)参与电力市场(electricity market,EM)交易有助于新能源消纳与提升环境效益。为此,首先,构建风电、光伏、可控分布式电源、储能及柔性负荷的多主体VPP模型,并制定各主体参与电能量市场(electric energy market,EEM)和调峰市场(peak regulating market,PRM)竞标策略。通过EEM及PRM算例展现了VPP参与调峰竞标实现VPP效益最大化及各DER成员利益的合理分配。其次,引入碳交易机制,分析碳交易价格变化与风光消纳率、碳排放量及VPP收益之间的关联性。最后,进一步探索碳汇资源交易对电力价格、产量及能源需求变化率的影响,为碳汇价值的生态保护补偿机制提供依据,也为电−碳市场协同下碳市场(carbon market,CM)对EM的价格传导效应及CM价格机制的优化设计提供参考。
