Precipitous Arctic sea-ice decline and the corresponding increase in Arctic open-water areas in summer months give more space for sea-ice growth in the subsequent cold seasons. Compared to the decline of the entire Ar...Precipitous Arctic sea-ice decline and the corresponding increase in Arctic open-water areas in summer months give more space for sea-ice growth in the subsequent cold seasons. Compared to the decline of the entire Arctic multiyear sea ice,changes in newly formed sea ice indicate more thermodynamic and dynamic information on Arctic atmosphere–ocean–ice interaction and northern mid–high latitude atmospheric teleconnections. Here, we use a large multimodel ensemble from phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP6) to investigate future changes in wintertime newly formed Arctic sea ice. The commonly used model-democracy approach that gives equal weight to each model essentially assumes that all models are independent and equally plausible, which contradicts with the fact that there are large interdependencies in the ensemble and discrepancies in models' performances in reproducing observations. Therefore, instead of using the arithmetic mean of well-performing models or all available models for projections like in previous studies, we employ a newly developed model weighting scheme that weights all models in the ensemble with consideration of their performance and independence to provide more reliable projections. Model democracy leads to evident bias and large intermodel spread in CMIP6 projections of newly formed Arctic sea ice. However, we show that both the bias and the intermodel spread can be effectively reduced by the weighting scheme. Projections from the weighted models indicate that wintertime newly formed Arctic sea ice is likely to increase dramatically until the middle of this century regardless of the emissions scenario.Thereafter, it may decrease(or remain stable) if the Arctic warming crosses a threshold(or is extensively constrained).展开更多
The study of Arctic sea ice has traditionally been focused on large-scale such as reductions of ice coverage,thickness,volumes and sea ice regime shift.Research has primarily concentrated on the impact of large-scale ...The study of Arctic sea ice has traditionally been focused on large-scale such as reductions of ice coverage,thickness,volumes and sea ice regime shift.Research has primarily concentrated on the impact of large-scale external factors such as atmospheric and oceanic circulations,and solar radiation.Additionally,Arctic sea ice also undergoes rapid micro-scale evolution such as gas bubbles formation,brine pockets migration and massive formation of surface scattering layer.Field studies like CHINARE(2008-2018)and MOSAiC(2019-2020)have confirmed these observations,yet the full understanding of those changes remain insufficient and superficial.In order to cope better with the rapidly changing Arctic Ocean,this study reviews the recent advances in the microstructure of Arctic sea ice in both field observations and laboratory experiments,and looks forward to the future objectives on the microscale processes of sea ice.The significant porosity and the cyclical annual and seasonal shifts likely modify the ice's thermal,optical,and mechanical characteristics,impacting its energy dynamics and mass balance.Current thermodynamic models,both single-phase and dual-phase,fail to accurately capture these microstructural changes in sea ice,leading to uncertainties in the results.The discrepancy between model predictions and actual observations strongly motivates the parameterization on the evolution in ice microstructure and development of next-generation sea ice models,accounting for changes in ice crystals,brine pockets,and gas bubbles under the background of global warming.It helps to finally achieve a thorough comprehension of Arctic sea ice changes,encompassing both macro and micro perspectives,as well as externaland internal factors.展开更多
Satellite records show that the extent and thickness of sea ice in the Arctic Ocean have significantly decreased since the early 1970s.The prediction of sea ice is highly important,but accurate simulation of sea ice v...Satellite records show that the extent and thickness of sea ice in the Arctic Ocean have significantly decreased since the early 1970s.The prediction of sea ice is highly important,but accurate simulation of sea ice variations remains highly challenging.For improving model performance,sensitivity experiments were conducted using the coupled ocean and sea ice model(NEMO-LIM),and the simulation results were compared against satellite observations.Moreover,the contribution ratios of dynamic and thermodynamic processes to sea ice variations were analyzed.The results show that the performance of the model in reconstructing the spatial distribution of Arctic sea ice is highly sensitive to ice strength decay constant(C^(rhg)).By reducing the C^(rhg) constant,the sea ice compressive strength increases,leading to improved simulated sea ice states.The contribution of thermodynamic processes to sea ice melting was reduced due to less deformation and fracture of sea ice with increased compressive strength.Meanwhile,dynamic processes constrained more sea ice to the central Arctic Ocean and contributed to the increases in ice concentration,reducing the simulation bias in the central Arctic Ocean in summer.The root mean square error(RMSE)between modeled and the CryoSat-2/SMOS satellite observed ice thickness was reduced in the compressive strength-enhanced model solution.The ice thickness,especially of multiyear thick ice,was also reduced and matched with the satellite observation better in the freezing season.These provide an essential foundation on exploring the response of the marine ecosystem and biogeochemical cycling to sea ice changes.展开更多
Retrieval of Thin-Ice Thickness(TIT)using thermodynamic modeling is sensitive to the parameterization of the independent variables(coded in the model)and the uncertainty of the measured input variables.This article ex...Retrieval of Thin-Ice Thickness(TIT)using thermodynamic modeling is sensitive to the parameterization of the independent variables(coded in the model)and the uncertainty of the measured input variables.This article examines the deviation of the classical model’s TIT output when using different parameterization schemes and the sensitivity of the output to the ice thickness.Moreover,it estimates the uncertainty of the output in response to the uncertainties of the input variables.The parameterized independent variables include atmospheric longwave emissivity,air density,specific heat of air,latent heat of ice,conductivity of ice,snow depth,and snow conductivity.Measured input parameters include air temperature,ice surface temperature,and wind speed.Among the independent variables,the results show that the highest deviation is caused by adjusting the parameterization of snow conductivity and depth,followed ice conductivity.The sensitivity of the output TIT to ice thickness is highest when using parameterization of ice conductivity,atmospheric emissivity,and snow conductivity and depth.The retrieved TIT obtained using each parameterization scheme is validated using in situ measurements and satellite-retrieved data.From in situ measurements,the uncertainties of the measured air temperature and surface temperature are found to be high.The resulting uncertainties of TIT are evaluated using perturbations of the input data selected based on the probability distribution of the measurement error.The results show that the overall uncertainty of TIT to air temperature,surface temperature,and wind speed uncertainty is around 0.09 m,0.049 m,and−0.005 m,respectively.展开更多
In recent years,there has been a significant acceleration in the thinning,calving and retreat of the Pine Island Ice Shelf(PIIS).The basal channels,results of enhanced basal melting,have the potential to significantly...In recent years,there has been a significant acceleration in the thinning,calving and retreat of the Pine Island Ice Shelf(PIIS).The basal channels,results of enhanced basal melting,have the potential to significantly impact the stability of the PIIS.In this study,we used a variety of remote sensing data,including Landsat,REMA DEM,ICESat-1 and ICESat-2 satellite altimetry observations,and Ice Bridge airborne measurements,to study the spatiotemporal changes in the basal channels from 2003 to 2020 and basal melt rate from 2010 to 2017 of the PIIS under the Eulerian framework.We found that the basal channels are highly developed in the PIIS,with a total length exceeding 450 km.Most of the basal channels are ocean-sourced or groundingline-sourced basal channels,caused by the rapid melting under the ice shelf or near the groundingline.A raised seabed prevented warm water intrusion into the eastern branch of the PIIS,resulting in a lower basal melt rate in that area.In contrast,a deepsea trough facilitates warm seawater into the mainstream and the western branch of the PIIS,resulting in a higher basal melt rate in the main-stream,and the surface elevation changes above the basal channels of the mainstream and western branch are more significant.The El Ni?o event in 2015–2016 possibly slowed down the basal melting of the PIIS by modulating wind field,surface sea temperature and depth seawater temperature.Ocean and atmospheric changes were driven by El Ni?o,which can further explain and confirm the changes in the basal melting of the PIIS.展开更多
It has recently been shown that incident particles, neutrons, can initiate the freezing in a supercooled water volume. This new finding may have ramifications for the interpretation of both experimental data on the nu...It has recently been shown that incident particles, neutrons, can initiate the freezing in a supercooled water volume. This new finding may have ramifications for the interpretation of both experimental data on the nucleation of laboratory samples of supercooled water and perhaps more importantly on the interpretation of ice nucleation involved in cloud physics. For example, if some fraction of the cloud nucleation previously attributed to dust, soot, or aerosols has been caused by cosmogenic neutrons, fresh consideration is required in the context of climate models. Moreover, as cosmogenic neutrons, most being muon-induced, have much greater flux at high latitudes, estimates of ice nucleates in these regions may be larger than required to accurately model cloud and condensation properties. This discrepancy has been pointed out in IPCC reports. Our paper discusses the connection between the new concept of neutrons nucleating supercooled water and the need for a new source of nucleation in high latitude clouds, ideally causing others to review current data, or to analyse future data with this idea in mind. .展开更多
Design of internal combustion engine (ICE) components is one of the earliest and also the most active areas in which computer aided modeling techniques are applied. Computer aided modeling techniques could provide req...Design of internal combustion engine (ICE) components is one of the earliest and also the most active areas in which computer aided modeling techniques are applied. Computer aided modeling techniques could provide requisite information for follow up designing segments such as structural analysis, design of technological process and manufacturing etc, and thereby lead to the reduction of product design period and the quality and reliability improvement of ICE components. So the developing situations of ICE components' 2 D drafting, 3 D modeling of ICE, overall CAD of ICE as well as component design expert system etc. are surveyed, which are the typical applications of computer aided modeling techniques in ICE component design process, and some existent problems and tasks are pointed out so as to make some references for the further research work.展开更多
In this study, we mainly introduce two salinity parameterization schemes used in Sea Ice Simulator (SIS), that is, isosaline scheme and salinity profile scheme. Comparing the equation of isosaline scheme with that o...In this study, we mainly introduce two salinity parameterization schemes used in Sea Ice Simulator (SIS), that is, isosaline scheme and salinity profile scheme. Comparing the equation of isosaline scheme with that of salinity profile scheme, we found that there was one different term between the two schemes named the salinity different term. The thermodynamic effect of the salinity difference term on sea ice thickness and sea ice concentration showed that: in the freezing processes from November to next May, the sea ice temperature could rise on the influence of the salinity difference term and restrain sea ice freezing; at the first melting phase from June to August, the upper ice melting rate was faster than the lower ice melting rate. Then sea ice temperature could rise and accelerate the sea ice melting; at the second melting phase from September to October, the upper ice melting rate was slower than the lower ice melting rate, then sea ice temperature could decrease and restrain sea ice melting. However, the effect of the salinity difference term on the sea ice thickness and sea ice concentration was weak. To analyze the impacts of the salinity different term on Arctic sea ice thickness and sea ice concentration, we also designed several experiments by introducing the two salinity parameterizations to the ice-ocean coupled model, Modular Ocean Model (MOM4), respectively. The simulated results confirmed the previous results of formula derivation.展开更多
Light absorbing particles(LAP, e.g., black carbon, brown carbon, and dust) influence water and energy budgets of the atmosphere and snowpack in multiple ways. In addition to their effects associated with atmospheric...Light absorbing particles(LAP, e.g., black carbon, brown carbon, and dust) influence water and energy budgets of the atmosphere and snowpack in multiple ways. In addition to their effects associated with atmospheric heating by absorption of solar radiation and interactions with clouds, LAP in snow on land and ice can reduce the surface reflectance(a.k.a., surface darkening), which is likely to accelerate the snow aging process and further reduces snow albedo and increases the speed of snowpack melt. LAP in snow and ice(LAPSI) has been identified as one of major forcings affecting climate change, e.g.in the fourth and fifth assessment reports of IPCC. However, the uncertainty level in quantifying this effect remains very high. In this review paper, we document various technical methods of measuring LAPSI and review the progress made in measuring the LAPSI in Arctic, Tibetan Plateau and other mid-latitude regions. We also report the progress in modeling the mass concentrations, albedo reduction, radiative forcing, and climatic and hydrological impact of LAPSI at global and regional scales. Finally we identify some research needs for reducing the uncertainties in the impact of LAPSI on global and regional climate and the hydrological cycle.展开更多
A new viscoelastic-plastic (VEP) constitutive model for sea ice dynamics was developed based on continuum mechanics. This model consists of four components: Kelvin-Vogit viscoelastic model, Mohr-Coulomb yielding cr...A new viscoelastic-plastic (VEP) constitutive model for sea ice dynamics was developed based on continuum mechanics. This model consists of four components: Kelvin-Vogit viscoelastic model, Mohr-Coulomb yielding criterion, associated normality flow rule for plastic rehololgy, and hydrostatic pressure. The numerical simulations for ice motion in an idealized rectangular basin were made using smoothed particle hydrodynamics (SPH) method, and compared with the analytical solution as well as those based on the modified viscous plastic(VP) model and static ice jam theory. These simulations show that the new VEP model can simulate ice dynamics accurately. The new constitutive model was further applied to simulate ice dynamics of the Bohai Sea and compared with the traditional VP, and modified VP models. The results of the VEP model are compared better with the satellite remote images, and the simulated ice conditions in the JZ20-2 oil platform area were more reasonable.展开更多
The coupled ice- ocean model for the Bohai Sea is used for simulating the freezing, melting, and variation of ice cover and the heat bal- ance at the sea- ice, air- ice, and air- sea interfaces of the Bohai Sea during...The coupled ice- ocean model for the Bohai Sea is used for simulating the freezing, melting, and variation of ice cover and the heat bal- ance at the sea- ice, air- ice, and air- sea interfaces of the Bohai Sea during the entire winter in 1998 ̄1999 and 2000 ̄2001. The cou- pled model is forced by real time numerical weather prediction fields. The results show that the thermodynamic effects of atmosphere and ocean are very important for the evolvement of ice in the Bohai Sea, especially in the period of ice freezing and melting. Ocean heat flux plays a key role in the thermodynamic coupling. The simulation also presents the different thermodynamic features in the ice covered region and the marginal ice zone. Ice thickness, heat budget at the interface, and surface sea temperature, etc. between the two representative points are discussed.展开更多
Sea level rise (SLR) is one of the major socioeconomic risks associated with global warming. Mass losses from the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) will be partially responsible for future SLR, although there are large u...Sea level rise (SLR) is one of the major socioeconomic risks associated with global warming. Mass losses from the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) will be partially responsible for future SLR, although there are large uncertainties in modeled climate and ice sheet behavior. We used the ice sheet model SICOPOLIS (Simulation COde for POLythermal Ice Sheets) driven by climate projections from 20 models in the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) to estimate the GrlS contribution to global SLR. Based on the outputs of the 20 models, it is estimated that the GrIS will contribute 0-16 (0-27) cm to global SLR by 2100 under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 (RCP 8.5) scenarios. The projected SLR increases further to 7-22 (7-33) cm with 2~basal sliding included. In response to the results of the multimodel ensemble mean, the ice sheet model projects a global SLR of 3 cm and 7 cm (10 cm and 13 cm with 2~basal sliding) under the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios, respectively. In addition, our results suggest that the uncertainty in future sea level projection caused by the large spread in climate projections could be reduced with model-evaluation and the selective use of model outputs.展开更多
Sea ice drift is mainly controlled by ocean currents, local wind, and internal ice stress. Information on sea ice motion, especially in situ synchronous observation of an ice velocity, a current velocity, and a wind s...Sea ice drift is mainly controlled by ocean currents, local wind, and internal ice stress. Information on sea ice motion, especially in situ synchronous observation of an ice velocity, a current velocity, and a wind speed, is of great significance to identify ice drift characteristics. A sea ice substitute, the so-called "modelled ice", which is made by polypropylene material with a density similar to Bohai Sea ice, is used to complete a free drift experiment in the open sea. The trajectories of isolated modelled ice, currents and wind in the Bohai Sea during non-frozen and frozen periods are obtained. The results show that the currents play a major role while the wind plays a minor role in the free drift of isolated modelled ice when the wind is mild in the Bohai Sea. The modelled ice drift is significantly affected by the ocean current and wind based on the ice–current–wind relationship established by a multiple linear regression. The modelled ice velocity calculated by the multiple linear regression is close to that of the in situ observation, the magnitude of the error between the calculated and observed ice velocities is less than12.05%, and the velocity direction error is less than 6.21°. Thus, the ice velocity can be estimated based on the observed current velocity and wind speed when the in situ observed ice velocity is missing. And the modelled ice of same thickness with a smaller density is more sensitive to the current velocity and the wind speed changes. In addition, the modelled ice drift characteristics are shown to be close to those of the real sea ice, which indicates that the modelled ice can be used as a good substitute of real ice for in situ observation of the free ice drift in the open sea, which helps solve time availability, safety and logistics problems related to in situ observation on real ice.展开更多
The Los Alamos sea ice model(CICE) is used to simulate the Arctic sea ice variability from 1948 to 2009. Two versions of CICE are validated through comparison with Hadley Centre Global Sea Ice and Sea Surface Temperat...The Los Alamos sea ice model(CICE) is used to simulate the Arctic sea ice variability from 1948 to 2009. Two versions of CICE are validated through comparison with Hadley Centre Global Sea Ice and Sea Surface Temperature(Had ISST) observations. Version 5.0 of CICE with elastic-viscous-plastic(EVP) dynamics simulates a September Arctic sea ice concentration(SASIC) trend of –0.619 × 1012 m2 per decade from 1969 to 2009, which is very close to the observed trend(-0.585 × 1012 m2 per decade). Version 4.0 of CICE with EVP dynamics underestimates the SASIC trend(-0.470 × 1012 m2 per decade). Version 5.0 has a higher correlation(0.742) with observation than version 4.0(0.653). Both versions of CICE simulate the seasonal cycle of the Arctic sea ice, but version 5.0 outperforms version 4.0 in both phase and amplitude. The timing of the minimum and maximum sea ice coverage occurs a little earlier(phase advancing) in both versions. Simulations also show that the September Arctic sea ice volume(SASIV) has a faster decreasing trend than SASIC.展开更多
In the present work,a state-based peridynamics with adaptive particle refinement is proposed to simulate water ice crater formation due to impact loads.A modified Drucker-Prager constitutive model was adopted to model...In the present work,a state-based peridynamics with adaptive particle refinement is proposed to simulate water ice crater formation due to impact loads.A modified Drucker-Prager constitutive model was adopted to model ice and was implemented in the state-based peridynamic equations to analyze the elastic-plastic deformation of ice.In simulations,we use the fracture toughness failure criterion in peridynamics to simulate the quasi-brittle failure of ice.An adaptive particle refinement method in peridynamics was proposed to improve computational efficiency.The results obtained using the peridynamic model were compared with the experiments in previous literatures.It was found that the peridynamic simulation results and the experiments matched well except for some minor differences discussed,and the state-based peridynamic model has shown the specific predictive capacity to capture the detailed crater features of the ice.展开更多
According to the earlier international studies on the coupled iceocean model and the hydrology, meteorology, and icefeatures in the Bohai Sea, a coupled iceocean model is developed based on the National Marine Environ...According to the earlier international studies on the coupled iceocean model and the hydrology, meteorology, and icefeatures in the Bohai Sea, a coupled iceocean model is developed based on the National Marine EnvironmentForecast Centers (NMEFC) numerical forecasting ice model of the Bohai Sea and the Princeton ocean model (POM).In the coupled model, the transfer of momentum and heat between ocean and ice is two-way, and the change of icethickness and concentration depends on heat budget not only at the surface and bottom of ice, but also at the surfaceof open water between ices. The dynamic and thermodynamic coupling process is expatiated emphatically. Somethermodynamic parameters are discussed as well.展开更多
Emphasizing the model's ability in mean climate reproduction in high northern latitudes, results from an ocean-sea ice-atmosphere coupled model are analyzed. It is shown that the coupled model can simulate the mai...Emphasizing the model's ability in mean climate reproduction in high northern latitudes, results from an ocean-sea ice-atmosphere coupled model are analyzed. It is shown that the coupled model can simulate the main characteristics of annual mean global sea surface temperature and sea level pressure well, but the extent of ice coverage produced in the Southern Hemisphere is not large enough. The main distribution characteristics of simulated sea level pressure and temperature at 850 hPa in high northern latitudes agree well with their counterparts in the NCEP reanalysis dataset, and the model can reproduce the Arctic Oscillation (AO) mode successfully. The simulated seasonal variation of sea ice in the Northern Hemisphere is rational and its main distribution features in winter agree well with those from observations. But the ice concentration in the sea ice edge area close to the Eurasian continent in the inner Arctic Ocean is much larger than the observation. There are significant interannual variation signals in the simulated sea ice concentration in winter in high northern latitudes and the most significant area lies in the Greenland Sea, followed by the Barents Sea. All of these features agree well with the results from observations.展开更多
Considering the discontinuous characteristics of sea ice on various scales,a modified discrete element model(DEM) for sea ice dynamics is developed based on the granular material rheology.In this modified DEM,a soft...Considering the discontinuous characteristics of sea ice on various scales,a modified discrete element model(DEM) for sea ice dynamics is developed based on the granular material rheology.In this modified DEM,a soft sea ice particle element is introduced as a self-adjustive particle size function.Each ice particle can be treated as an assembly of ice floes,with its concentration and thickness changing to variable sizes under the conservation of mass.In this model,the contact forces among ice particles are calculated using a viscous-elastic-plastic model,while the maximum shear forces are described with the Mohr-Coulomb friction law.With this modified DEM,the ice flow dynamics is simulated under the drags of wind and current in a channel of various widths.The thicknesses,concentrations and velocities of ice particles are obtained,and then reasonable dynamic process is analyzed.The sea ice dynamic process is also simulated in a vortex wind field.Taking the influence of thermodynamics into account,this modified DEM will be improved in the future work.展开更多
To study ice-induced vibration of a compliant conical structure, a series of model tests were performed from 2004 to 2005. In the tests, the ice sheet before the compliant conical structure was found to fail in two-ti...To study ice-induced vibration of a compliant conical structure, a series of model tests were performed from 2004 to 2005. In the tests, the ice sheet before the compliant conical structure was found to fail in two-time breaking. From 2005 to 2006, this type of ice failure was studied through more groups of tests. The tests show that two-time breaking is the typical failure of ice before steep conical structures, and is controlled by other factors at the same time, such as ice speed and the angle of the cone.展开更多
Sea ice thickness is one of the most important input parameters in the studies on sea ice disaster prevention and mitigation. It is also the most important content in remote sensing monitoring of sea ice. In this stud...Sea ice thickness is one of the most important input parameters in the studies on sea ice disaster prevention and mitigation. It is also the most important content in remote sensing monitoring of sea ice. In this study, a practical model of sea ice thickness(PMSIT) was proposed based on the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer(MODIS) data. In the proposed model, the MODIS data of the first band were used to estimate sea ice thickness and the difference between the second-band reflectance and the fifth-band reflectance in the MODIS data was calculated to obtain the difference attenuation index(DAI) of each pixel. The obtained DAI was used to estimate the integrated attenuation coefficient of the first band of the MODIS at the pixel level. Then the model was used to estimate sea ice thickness in the Bohai Sea with the MODIS data and then validated with the actual sea ice survey data. The validation results showed that the proposed model and corresponding parameterization scheme could largely avoid the estimation error of sea ice thickness caused by the spatial and temporal heterogeneity of sea ice extinction and allowed the error of 18.7% compared with the measured sea ice thickness.展开更多
基金supported by the Chinese–Norwegian Collaboration Projects within Climate Systems jointly funded by the National Key Research and Development Program of China (Grant No.2022YFE0106800)the Research Council of Norway funded project,MAPARC (Grant No.328943)+2 种基金the support from the Research Council of Norway funded project,COMBINED (Grant No.328935)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No.42075030)the Postgraduate Research and Practice Innovation Program of Jiangsu Province (KYCX23_1314)。
文摘Precipitous Arctic sea-ice decline and the corresponding increase in Arctic open-water areas in summer months give more space for sea-ice growth in the subsequent cold seasons. Compared to the decline of the entire Arctic multiyear sea ice,changes in newly formed sea ice indicate more thermodynamic and dynamic information on Arctic atmosphere–ocean–ice interaction and northern mid–high latitude atmospheric teleconnections. Here, we use a large multimodel ensemble from phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP6) to investigate future changes in wintertime newly formed Arctic sea ice. The commonly used model-democracy approach that gives equal weight to each model essentially assumes that all models are independent and equally plausible, which contradicts with the fact that there are large interdependencies in the ensemble and discrepancies in models' performances in reproducing observations. Therefore, instead of using the arithmetic mean of well-performing models or all available models for projections like in previous studies, we employ a newly developed model weighting scheme that weights all models in the ensemble with consideration of their performance and independence to provide more reliable projections. Model democracy leads to evident bias and large intermodel spread in CMIP6 projections of newly formed Arctic sea ice. However, we show that both the bias and the intermodel spread can be effectively reduced by the weighting scheme. Projections from the weighted models indicate that wintertime newly formed Arctic sea ice is likely to increase dramatically until the middle of this century regardless of the emissions scenario.Thereafter, it may decrease(or remain stable) if the Arctic warming crosses a threshold(or is extensively constrained).
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant nos.42320104004 and 42276242)the National Key Research and Development Program of China(Grant no.2023YFC2809102).
文摘The study of Arctic sea ice has traditionally been focused on large-scale such as reductions of ice coverage,thickness,volumes and sea ice regime shift.Research has primarily concentrated on the impact of large-scale external factors such as atmospheric and oceanic circulations,and solar radiation.Additionally,Arctic sea ice also undergoes rapid micro-scale evolution such as gas bubbles formation,brine pockets migration and massive formation of surface scattering layer.Field studies like CHINARE(2008-2018)and MOSAiC(2019-2020)have confirmed these observations,yet the full understanding of those changes remain insufficient and superficial.In order to cope better with the rapidly changing Arctic Ocean,this study reviews the recent advances in the microstructure of Arctic sea ice in both field observations and laboratory experiments,and looks forward to the future objectives on the microscale processes of sea ice.The significant porosity and the cyclical annual and seasonal shifts likely modify the ice's thermal,optical,and mechanical characteristics,impacting its energy dynamics and mass balance.Current thermodynamic models,both single-phase and dual-phase,fail to accurately capture these microstructural changes in sea ice,leading to uncertainties in the results.The discrepancy between model predictions and actual observations strongly motivates the parameterization on the evolution in ice microstructure and development of next-generation sea ice models,accounting for changes in ice crystals,brine pockets,and gas bubbles under the background of global warming.It helps to finally achieve a thorough comprehension of Arctic sea ice changes,encompassing both macro and micro perspectives,as well as externaland internal factors.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.41630969,41941013,41806225)the Tianjin Municipal Natural Science Foundation(No.20JCQNJC01290)。
文摘Satellite records show that the extent and thickness of sea ice in the Arctic Ocean have significantly decreased since the early 1970s.The prediction of sea ice is highly important,but accurate simulation of sea ice variations remains highly challenging.For improving model performance,sensitivity experiments were conducted using the coupled ocean and sea ice model(NEMO-LIM),and the simulation results were compared against satellite observations.Moreover,the contribution ratios of dynamic and thermodynamic processes to sea ice variations were analyzed.The results show that the performance of the model in reconstructing the spatial distribution of Arctic sea ice is highly sensitive to ice strength decay constant(C^(rhg)).By reducing the C^(rhg) constant,the sea ice compressive strength increases,leading to improved simulated sea ice states.The contribution of thermodynamic processes to sea ice melting was reduced due to less deformation and fracture of sea ice with increased compressive strength.Meanwhile,dynamic processes constrained more sea ice to the central Arctic Ocean and contributed to the increases in ice concentration,reducing the simulation bias in the central Arctic Ocean in summer.The root mean square error(RMSE)between modeled and the CryoSat-2/SMOS satellite observed ice thickness was reduced in the compressive strength-enhanced model solution.The ice thickness,especially of multiyear thick ice,was also reduced and matched with the satellite observation better in the freezing season.These provide an essential foundation on exploring the response of the marine ecosystem and biogeochemical cycling to sea ice changes.
文摘Retrieval of Thin-Ice Thickness(TIT)using thermodynamic modeling is sensitive to the parameterization of the independent variables(coded in the model)and the uncertainty of the measured input variables.This article examines the deviation of the classical model’s TIT output when using different parameterization schemes and the sensitivity of the output to the ice thickness.Moreover,it estimates the uncertainty of the output in response to the uncertainties of the input variables.The parameterized independent variables include atmospheric longwave emissivity,air density,specific heat of air,latent heat of ice,conductivity of ice,snow depth,and snow conductivity.Measured input parameters include air temperature,ice surface temperature,and wind speed.Among the independent variables,the results show that the highest deviation is caused by adjusting the parameterization of snow conductivity and depth,followed ice conductivity.The sensitivity of the output TIT to ice thickness is highest when using parameterization of ice conductivity,atmospheric emissivity,and snow conductivity and depth.The retrieved TIT obtained using each parameterization scheme is validated using in situ measurements and satellite-retrieved data.From in situ measurements,the uncertainties of the measured air temperature and surface temperature are found to be high.The resulting uncertainties of TIT are evaluated using perturbations of the input data selected based on the probability distribution of the measurement error.The results show that the overall uncertainty of TIT to air temperature,surface temperature,and wind speed uncertainty is around 0.09 m,0.049 m,and−0.005 m,respectively.
基金The National Natural Science Foundation of China under contract Nos 41941010 and 42006184the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities under contract No.2042022kf1068。
文摘In recent years,there has been a significant acceleration in the thinning,calving and retreat of the Pine Island Ice Shelf(PIIS).The basal channels,results of enhanced basal melting,have the potential to significantly impact the stability of the PIIS.In this study,we used a variety of remote sensing data,including Landsat,REMA DEM,ICESat-1 and ICESat-2 satellite altimetry observations,and Ice Bridge airborne measurements,to study the spatiotemporal changes in the basal channels from 2003 to 2020 and basal melt rate from 2010 to 2017 of the PIIS under the Eulerian framework.We found that the basal channels are highly developed in the PIIS,with a total length exceeding 450 km.Most of the basal channels are ocean-sourced or groundingline-sourced basal channels,caused by the rapid melting under the ice shelf or near the groundingline.A raised seabed prevented warm water intrusion into the eastern branch of the PIIS,resulting in a lower basal melt rate in that area.In contrast,a deepsea trough facilitates warm seawater into the mainstream and the western branch of the PIIS,resulting in a higher basal melt rate in the main-stream,and the surface elevation changes above the basal channels of the mainstream and western branch are more significant.The El Ni?o event in 2015–2016 possibly slowed down the basal melting of the PIIS by modulating wind field,surface sea temperature and depth seawater temperature.Ocean and atmospheric changes were driven by El Ni?o,which can further explain and confirm the changes in the basal melting of the PIIS.
文摘It has recently been shown that incident particles, neutrons, can initiate the freezing in a supercooled water volume. This new finding may have ramifications for the interpretation of both experimental data on the nucleation of laboratory samples of supercooled water and perhaps more importantly on the interpretation of ice nucleation involved in cloud physics. For example, if some fraction of the cloud nucleation previously attributed to dust, soot, or aerosols has been caused by cosmogenic neutrons, fresh consideration is required in the context of climate models. Moreover, as cosmogenic neutrons, most being muon-induced, have much greater flux at high latitudes, estimates of ice nucleates in these regions may be larger than required to accurately model cloud and condensation properties. This discrepancy has been pointed out in IPCC reports. Our paper discusses the connection between the new concept of neutrons nucleating supercooled water and the need for a new source of nucleation in high latitude clouds, ideally causing others to review current data, or to analyse future data with this idea in mind. .
文摘Design of internal combustion engine (ICE) components is one of the earliest and also the most active areas in which computer aided modeling techniques are applied. Computer aided modeling techniques could provide requisite information for follow up designing segments such as structural analysis, design of technological process and manufacturing etc, and thereby lead to the reduction of product design period and the quality and reliability improvement of ICE components. So the developing situations of ICE components' 2 D drafting, 3 D modeling of ICE, overall CAD of ICE as well as component design expert system etc. are surveyed, which are the typical applications of computer aided modeling techniques in ICE component design process, and some existent problems and tasks are pointed out so as to make some references for the further research work.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.41075030,41106004,41106159 and 41206013)the Ocean Public Welfare Science Research Project,State Oceanic Administration,People's Republic of China(No.201005019)
文摘In this study, we mainly introduce two salinity parameterization schemes used in Sea Ice Simulator (SIS), that is, isosaline scheme and salinity profile scheme. Comparing the equation of isosaline scheme with that of salinity profile scheme, we found that there was one different term between the two schemes named the salinity different term. The thermodynamic effect of the salinity difference term on sea ice thickness and sea ice concentration showed that: in the freezing processes from November to next May, the sea ice temperature could rise on the influence of the salinity difference term and restrain sea ice freezing; at the first melting phase from June to August, the upper ice melting rate was faster than the lower ice melting rate. Then sea ice temperature could rise and accelerate the sea ice melting; at the second melting phase from September to October, the upper ice melting rate was slower than the lower ice melting rate, then sea ice temperature could decrease and restrain sea ice melting. However, the effect of the salinity difference term on the sea ice thickness and sea ice concentration was weak. To analyze the impacts of the salinity different term on Arctic sea ice thickness and sea ice concentration, we also designed several experiments by introducing the two salinity parameterizations to the ice-ocean coupled model, Modular Ocean Model (MOM4), respectively. The simulated results confirmed the previous results of formula derivation.
基金supported by the U.S.Department of Energy, Office of Science, Biological and Environmental Research, as part of the Earth System Modeling ProgramThe NASA Modeling, Analysis, and Prediction (MAP) Program by the Science Mission Directorate at NASA Headquarters supported the work contributed by Teppei J.YASUNARI and William K.M.LAU+2 种基金The NASA GEOS-5 simulation was implemented in the system for NASA Center for Climate Simulation (NCCS).M.G.Flanner was partially supported by NSF 1253154support from the China Scholarship FundThe Pacific Northwest National Laboratory is operated for DOE by Battelle Memorial Institute under contract DE-AC06-76RLO1830
文摘Light absorbing particles(LAP, e.g., black carbon, brown carbon, and dust) influence water and energy budgets of the atmosphere and snowpack in multiple ways. In addition to their effects associated with atmospheric heating by absorption of solar radiation and interactions with clouds, LAP in snow on land and ice can reduce the surface reflectance(a.k.a., surface darkening), which is likely to accelerate the snow aging process and further reduces snow albedo and increases the speed of snowpack melt. LAP in snow and ice(LAPSI) has been identified as one of major forcings affecting climate change, e.g.in the fourth and fifth assessment reports of IPCC. However, the uncertainty level in quantifying this effect remains very high. In this review paper, we document various technical methods of measuring LAPSI and review the progress made in measuring the LAPSI in Arctic, Tibetan Plateau and other mid-latitude regions. We also report the progress in modeling the mass concentrations, albedo reduction, radiative forcing, and climatic and hydrological impact of LAPSI at global and regional scales. Finally we identify some research needs for reducing the uncertainties in the impact of LAPSI on global and regional climate and the hydrological cycle.
基金The authors would like to acknowledge the supports by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under contract No.40206004partly by the East-Asia and Pacific Program of US National Science Foundation under contract No.INT-9912246.
文摘A new viscoelastic-plastic (VEP) constitutive model for sea ice dynamics was developed based on continuum mechanics. This model consists of four components: Kelvin-Vogit viscoelastic model, Mohr-Coulomb yielding criterion, associated normality flow rule for plastic rehololgy, and hydrostatic pressure. The numerical simulations for ice motion in an idealized rectangular basin were made using smoothed particle hydrodynamics (SPH) method, and compared with the analytical solution as well as those based on the modified viscous plastic(VP) model and static ice jam theory. These simulations show that the new VEP model can simulate ice dynamics accurately. The new constitutive model was further applied to simulate ice dynamics of the Bohai Sea and compared with the traditional VP, and modified VP models. The results of the VEP model are compared better with the satellite remote images, and the simulated ice conditions in the JZ20-2 oil platform area were more reasonable.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under contract Nos 40233032 and 40376006the National High Technolo-gy Research and Development Program of China(“863")under contract Nos 2002AA639340 and 2001 AA631070the Principal Project under contract Nos 2001DIA50040 and 2001CB7l1006.
文摘The coupled ice- ocean model for the Bohai Sea is used for simulating the freezing, melting, and variation of ice cover and the heat bal- ance at the sea- ice, air- ice, and air- sea interfaces of the Bohai Sea during the entire winter in 1998 ̄1999 and 2000 ̄2001. The cou- pled model is forced by real time numerical weather prediction fields. The results show that the thermodynamic effects of atmosphere and ocean are very important for the evolvement of ice in the Bohai Sea, especially in the period of ice freezing and melting. Ocean heat flux plays a key role in the thermodynamic coupling. The simulation also presents the different thermodynamic features in the ice covered region and the marginal ice zone. Ice thickness, heat budget at the interface, and surface sea temperature, etc. between the two representative points are discussed.
基金funded by the National Basic Research Program of China(Grant Nos.2010CB950102 and 2009CB421406)the Nansen Scientific Society(Norway)part of the SeaLev projects at the Centre of Climate Dynamics/Bjerknes Center in Bergen
文摘Sea level rise (SLR) is one of the major socioeconomic risks associated with global warming. Mass losses from the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) will be partially responsible for future SLR, although there are large uncertainties in modeled climate and ice sheet behavior. We used the ice sheet model SICOPOLIS (Simulation COde for POLythermal Ice Sheets) driven by climate projections from 20 models in the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) to estimate the GrlS contribution to global SLR. Based on the outputs of the 20 models, it is estimated that the GrIS will contribute 0-16 (0-27) cm to global SLR by 2100 under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 (RCP 8.5) scenarios. The projected SLR increases further to 7-22 (7-33) cm with 2~basal sliding included. In response to the results of the multimodel ensemble mean, the ice sheet model projects a global SLR of 3 cm and 7 cm (10 cm and 13 cm with 2~basal sliding) under the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios, respectively. In addition, our results suggest that the uncertainty in future sea level projection caused by the large spread in climate projections could be reduced with model-evaluation and the selective use of model outputs.
基金The National Natural Science Foundation of China under contract No.41571510the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities of China under contract No.2014KJJCB02
文摘Sea ice drift is mainly controlled by ocean currents, local wind, and internal ice stress. Information on sea ice motion, especially in situ synchronous observation of an ice velocity, a current velocity, and a wind speed, is of great significance to identify ice drift characteristics. A sea ice substitute, the so-called "modelled ice", which is made by polypropylene material with a density similar to Bohai Sea ice, is used to complete a free drift experiment in the open sea. The trajectories of isolated modelled ice, currents and wind in the Bohai Sea during non-frozen and frozen periods are obtained. The results show that the currents play a major role while the wind plays a minor role in the free drift of isolated modelled ice when the wind is mild in the Bohai Sea. The modelled ice drift is significantly affected by the ocean current and wind based on the ice–current–wind relationship established by a multiple linear regression. The modelled ice velocity calculated by the multiple linear regression is close to that of the in situ observation, the magnitude of the error between the calculated and observed ice velocities is less than12.05%, and the velocity direction error is less than 6.21°. Thus, the ice velocity can be estimated based on the observed current velocity and wind speed when the in situ observed ice velocity is missing. And the modelled ice of same thickness with a smaller density is more sensitive to the current velocity and the wind speed changes. In addition, the modelled ice drift characteristics are shown to be close to those of the real sea ice, which indicates that the modelled ice can be used as a good substitute of real ice for in situ observation of the free ice drift in the open sea, which helps solve time availability, safety and logistics problems related to in situ observation on real ice.
基金supported by the National Basic Research Program of China(Grant No.2010CB951804)the China Meteorological Administration Special Fund for Scientific Research in the Public Interest(Grant No.GYHY201206008)
文摘The Los Alamos sea ice model(CICE) is used to simulate the Arctic sea ice variability from 1948 to 2009. Two versions of CICE are validated through comparison with Hadley Centre Global Sea Ice and Sea Surface Temperature(Had ISST) observations. Version 5.0 of CICE with elastic-viscous-plastic(EVP) dynamics simulates a September Arctic sea ice concentration(SASIC) trend of –0.619 × 1012 m2 per decade from 1969 to 2009, which is very close to the observed trend(-0.585 × 1012 m2 per decade). Version 4.0 of CICE with EVP dynamics underestimates the SASIC trend(-0.470 × 1012 m2 per decade). Version 5.0 has a higher correlation(0.742) with observation than version 4.0(0.653). Both versions of CICE simulate the seasonal cycle of the Arctic sea ice, but version 5.0 outperforms version 4.0 in both phase and amplitude. The timing of the minimum and maximum sea ice coverage occurs a little earlier(phase advancing) in both versions. Simulations also show that the September Arctic sea ice volume(SASIV) has a faster decreasing trend than SASIC.
文摘In the present work,a state-based peridynamics with adaptive particle refinement is proposed to simulate water ice crater formation due to impact loads.A modified Drucker-Prager constitutive model was adopted to model ice and was implemented in the state-based peridynamic equations to analyze the elastic-plastic deformation of ice.In simulations,we use the fracture toughness failure criterion in peridynamics to simulate the quasi-brittle failure of ice.An adaptive particle refinement method in peridynamics was proposed to improve computational efficiency.The results obtained using the peridynamic model were compared with the experiments in previous literatures.It was found that the peridynamic simulation results and the experiments matched well except for some minor differences discussed,and the state-based peridynamic model has shown the specific predictive capacity to capture the detailed crater features of the ice.
基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China under contract Nos40233032 , 40376006the National High Technology Research and Development Program(863) of China under contract Nos 2002AA639340 , 2001AA631070 the Principal Project under contract Nos2001DIA50040 , 2001CB711006.
文摘According to the earlier international studies on the coupled iceocean model and the hydrology, meteorology, and icefeatures in the Bohai Sea, a coupled iceocean model is developed based on the National Marine EnvironmentForecast Centers (NMEFC) numerical forecasting ice model of the Bohai Sea and the Princeton ocean model (POM).In the coupled model, the transfer of momentum and heat between ocean and ice is two-way, and the change of icethickness and concentration depends on heat budget not only at the surface and bottom of ice, but also at the surfaceof open water between ices. The dynamic and thermodynamic coupling process is expatiated emphatically. Somethermodynamic parameters are discussed as well.
基金sponsored by the Knowledge Innovation Project of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (ZKCX2-SW-210)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (40233031)the National Key Project of Fundamental Research of China(G2000078502)
文摘Emphasizing the model's ability in mean climate reproduction in high northern latitudes, results from an ocean-sea ice-atmosphere coupled model are analyzed. It is shown that the coupled model can simulate the main characteristics of annual mean global sea surface temperature and sea level pressure well, but the extent of ice coverage produced in the Southern Hemisphere is not large enough. The main distribution characteristics of simulated sea level pressure and temperature at 850 hPa in high northern latitudes agree well with their counterparts in the NCEP reanalysis dataset, and the model can reproduce the Arctic Oscillation (AO) mode successfully. The simulated seasonal variation of sea ice in the Northern Hemisphere is rational and its main distribution features in winter agree well with those from observations. But the ice concentration in the sea ice edge area close to the Eurasian continent in the inner Arctic Ocean is much larger than the observation. There are significant interannual variation signals in the simulated sea ice concentration in winter in high northern latitudes and the most significant area lies in the Greenland Sea, followed by the Barents Sea. All of these features agree well with the results from observations.
基金Special Fund of Marine Commonweal Industry under contact Nos 201105016 and 201205007supported by National Marine Environment Forecasting Centrethe National Natural Science Foundation of China under contact No.41176012
文摘Considering the discontinuous characteristics of sea ice on various scales,a modified discrete element model(DEM) for sea ice dynamics is developed based on the granular material rheology.In this modified DEM,a soft sea ice particle element is introduced as a self-adjustive particle size function.Each ice particle can be treated as an assembly of ice floes,with its concentration and thickness changing to variable sizes under the conservation of mass.In this model,the contact forces among ice particles are calculated using a viscous-elastic-plastic model,while the maximum shear forces are described with the Mohr-Coulomb friction law.With this modified DEM,the ice flow dynamics is simulated under the drags of wind and current in a channel of various widths.The thicknesses,concentrations and velocities of ice particles are obtained,and then reasonable dynamic process is analyzed.The sea ice dynamic process is also simulated in a vortex wind field.Taking the influence of thermodynamics into account,this modified DEM will be improved in the future work.
基金This project is financially supported by the National High Technology Research Development Program of China(863Program) by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.50609015)
文摘To study ice-induced vibration of a compliant conical structure, a series of model tests were performed from 2004 to 2005. In the tests, the ice sheet before the compliant conical structure was found to fail in two-time breaking. From 2005 to 2006, this type of ice failure was studied through more groups of tests. The tests show that two-time breaking is the typical failure of ice before steep conical structures, and is controlled by other factors at the same time, such as ice speed and the angle of the cone.
基金Under the auspices of the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.41306091)Public Science and Technology Research Funds Projects of Ocean(No.201505019-2)
文摘Sea ice thickness is one of the most important input parameters in the studies on sea ice disaster prevention and mitigation. It is also the most important content in remote sensing monitoring of sea ice. In this study, a practical model of sea ice thickness(PMSIT) was proposed based on the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer(MODIS) data. In the proposed model, the MODIS data of the first band were used to estimate sea ice thickness and the difference between the second-band reflectance and the fifth-band reflectance in the MODIS data was calculated to obtain the difference attenuation index(DAI) of each pixel. The obtained DAI was used to estimate the integrated attenuation coefficient of the first band of the MODIS at the pixel level. Then the model was used to estimate sea ice thickness in the Bohai Sea with the MODIS data and then validated with the actual sea ice survey data. The validation results showed that the proposed model and corresponding parameterization scheme could largely avoid the estimation error of sea ice thickness caused by the spatial and temporal heterogeneity of sea ice extinction and allowed the error of 18.7% compared with the measured sea ice thickness.