Effect of compressive strength on the performance of the NEMO-LIM model in Arctic Sea ice simulation

Satellite records show that the extent and thickness of sea ice in the Arctic Ocean have significantly decreased since the early 1970s.The prediction of sea ice is highly important,but accurate simulation of sea ice variations remains highly challenging.For improving model performance,sensitivity experiments were conducted using the coupled ocean and sea ice model(NEMO-LIM),and the simulation results were compared against satellite observations.Moreover,the contribution ratios of dynamic and thermodynamic processes to sea ice variations were analyzed.The results show that the performance of the model in reconstructing the spatial distribution of Arctic sea ice is highly sensitive to ice strength decay constant(C^(rhg)).By reducing the C^(rhg) constant,the sea ice compressive strength increases,leading to improved simulated sea ice states.The contribution of thermodynamic processes to sea ice melting was reduced due to less deformation and fracture of sea ice with increased compressive strength.Meanwhile,dynamic processes constrained more sea ice to the central Arctic Ocean and contributed to the increases in ice concentration,reducing the simulation bias in the central Arctic Ocean in summer.The root mean square error(RMSE)between modeled and the CryoSat-2/SMOS satellite observed ice thickness was reduced in the compressive strength-enhanced model solution.The ice thickness,especially of multiyear thick ice,was also reduced and matched with the satellite observation better in the freezing season.These provide an essential foundation on exploring the response of the marine ecosystem and biogeochemical cycling to sea ice changes.

The variation in basal channels and basal melt rates of Pine Island Ice Shelf

In recent years,there has been a significant acceleration in the thinning,calving and retreat of the Pine Island Ice Shelf(PIIS).The basal channels,results of enhanced basal melting,have the potential to significantly impact the stability of the PIIS.In this study,we used a variety of remote sensing data,including Landsat,REMA DEM,ICESat-1 and ICESat-2 satellite altimetry observations,and Ice Bridge airborne measurements,to study the spatiotemporal changes in the basal channels from 2003 to 2020 and basal melt rate from 2010 to 2017 of the PIIS under the Eulerian framework.We found that the basal channels are highly developed in the PIIS,with a total length exceeding 450 km.Most of the basal channels are ocean-sourced or groundingline-sourced basal channels,caused by the rapid melting under the ice shelf or near the groundingline.A raised seabed prevented warm water intrusion into the eastern branch of the PIIS,resulting in a lower basal melt rate in that area.In contrast,a deepsea trough facilitates warm seawater into the mainstream and the western branch of the PIIS,resulting in a higher basal melt rate in the main-stream,and the surface elevation changes above the basal channels of the mainstream and western branch are more significant.The El Ni?o event in 2015–2016 possibly slowed down the basal melting of the PIIS by modulating wind field,surface sea temperature and depth seawater temperature.Ocean and atmospheric changes were driven by El Ni?o,which can further explain and confirm the changes in the basal melting of the PIIS.

Nucleation of Supercooled Water by Neutrons: Latitude Dependence and Implications for Cloud Modelling

It has recently been shown that incident particles, neutrons, can initiate the freezing in a supercooled water volume. This new finding may have ramifications for the interpretation of both experimental data on the nucleation of laboratory samples of supercooled water and perhaps more importantly on the interpretation of ice nucleation involved in cloud physics. For example, if some fraction of the cloud nucleation previously attributed to dust, soot, or aerosols has been caused by cosmogenic neutrons, fresh consideration is required in the context of climate models. Moreover, as cosmogenic neutrons, most being muon-induced, have much greater flux at high latitudes, estimates of ice nucleates in these regions may be larger than required to accurately model cloud and condensation properties. This discrepancy has been pointed out in IPCC reports. Our paper discusses the connection between the new concept of neutrons nucleating supercooled water and the need for a new source of nucleation in high latitude clouds, ideally causing others to review current data, or to analyse future data with this idea in mind. .

Light-absorbing Particles in Snow and Ice: Measurement and Modeling of Climatic and Hydrological impact

Light absorbing particles（LAP, e.g., black carbon, brown carbon, and dust） influence water and energy budgets of the atmosphere and snowpack in multiple ways. In addition to their effects associated with atmospheric heating by absorption of solar radiation and interactions with clouds, LAP in snow on land and ice can reduce the surface reflectance（a.k.a., surface darkening）, which is likely to accelerate the snow aging process and further reduces snow albedo and increases the speed of snowpack melt. LAP in snow and ice（LAPSI） has been identified as one of major forcings affecting climate change, e.g.in the fourth and fifth assessment reports of IPCC. However, the uncertainty level in quantifying this effect remains very high. In this review paper, we document various technical methods of measuring LAPSI and review the progress made in measuring the LAPSI in Arctic, Tibetan Plateau and other mid-latitude regions. We also report the progress in modeling the mass concentrations, albedo reduction, radiative forcing, and climatic and hydrological impact of LAPSI at global and regional scales. Finally we identify some research needs for reducing the uncertainties in the impact of LAPSI on global and regional climate and the hydrological cycle.

A viscoelastic-plastic constitutive model with Mohr-Coulomb yielding criterion for sea ice dynamics

A new viscoelastic-plastic （VEP） constitutive model for sea ice dynamics was developed based on continuum mechanics. This model consists of four components： Kelvin-Vogit viscoelastic model, Mohr-Coulomb yielding criterion, associated normality flow rule for plastic rehololgy, and hydrostatic pressure. The numerical simulations for ice motion in an idealized rectangular basin were made using smoothed particle hydrodynamics （SPH） method, and compared with the analytical solution as well as those based on the modified viscous plastic（VP） model and static ice jam theory. These simulations show that the new VEP model can simulate ice dynamics accurately. The new constitutive model was further applied to simulate ice dynamics of the Bohai Sea and compared with the traditional VP, and modified VP models. The results of the VEP model are compared better with the satellite remote images, and the simulated ice conditions in the JZ20-2 oil platform area were more reasonable.

A coupled ice-ocean model for the Bohai SeaⅡ.Case study

The coupled ice- ocean model for the Bohai Sea is used for simulating the freezing, melting, and variation of ice cover and the heat bal- ance at the sea- ice, air- ice, and air- sea interfaces of the Bohai Sea during the entire winter in 1998￣1999 and 2000￣2001. The cou- pled model is forced by real time numerical weather prediction fields. The results show that the thermodynamic effects of atmosphere and ocean are very important for the evolvement of ice in the Bohai Sea, especially in the period of ice freezing and melting. Ocean heat flux plays a key role in the thermodynamic coupling. The simulation also presents the different thermodynamic features in the ice covered region and the marginal ice zone. Ice thickness, heat budget at the interface, and surface sea temperature, etc. between the two representative points are discussed.

Greenland Ice Sheet Contribution to Future Global Sea Level Rise based on CMIP5 Models

Sea level rise （SLR） is one of the major socioeconomic risks associated with global warming. Mass losses from the Greenland ice sheet （GrIS） will be partially responsible for future SLR, although there are large uncertainties in modeled climate and ice sheet behavior. We used the ice sheet model SICOPOLIS （Simulation COde for POLythermal Ice Sheets） driven by climate projections from 20 models in the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project （CMIP5） to estimate the GrlS contribution to global SLR. Based on the outputs of the 20 models, it is estimated that the GrIS will contribute 0-16 （0-27） cm to global SLR by 2100 under the Representative Concentration Pathways （RCP） 4.5 （RCP 8.5） scenarios. The projected SLR increases further to 7-22 （7-33） cm with 2~basal sliding included. In response to the results of the multimodel ensemble mean, the ice sheet model projects a global SLR of 3 cm and 7 cm （10 cm and 13 cm with 2~basal sliding） under the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios, respectively. In addition, our results suggest that the uncertainty in future sea level projection caused by the large spread in climate projections could be reduced with model-evaluation and the selective use of model outputs.

The in situ observation of modelled sea ice drift characteristics in the Bohai Sea

Sea ice drift is mainly controlled by ocean currents, local wind, and internal ice stress. Information on sea ice motion, especially in situ synchronous observation of an ice velocity, a current velocity, and a wind speed, is of great significance to identify ice drift characteristics. A sea ice substitute, the so-called "modelled ice", which is made by polypropylene material with a density similar to Bohai Sea ice, is used to complete a free drift experiment in the open sea. The trajectories of isolated modelled ice, currents and wind in the Bohai Sea during non-frozen and frozen periods are obtained. The results show that the currents play a major role while the wind plays a minor role in the free drift of isolated modelled ice when the wind is mild in the Bohai Sea. The modelled ice drift is significantly affected by the ocean current and wind based on the ice–current–wind relationship established by a multiple linear regression. The modelled ice velocity calculated by the multiple linear regression is close to that of the in situ observation, the magnitude of the error between the calculated and observed ice velocities is less than12.05%, and the velocity direction error is less than 6.21°. Thus, the ice velocity can be estimated based on the observed current velocity and wind speed when the in situ observed ice velocity is missing. And the modelled ice of same thickness with a smaller density is more sensitive to the current velocity and the wind speed changes. In addition, the modelled ice drift characteristics are shown to be close to those of the real sea ice, which indicates that the modelled ice can be used as a good substitute of real ice for in situ observation of the free ice drift in the open sea, which helps solve time availability, safety and logistics problems related to in situ observation on real ice.

Peridynamic Modeling and Simulation of Ice Craters By Impact

In the present work,a state-based peridynamics with adaptive particle refinement is proposed to simulate water ice crater formation due to impact loads.A modified Drucker-Prager constitutive model was adopted to model ice and was implemented in the state-based peridynamic equations to analyze the elastic-plastic deformation of ice.In simulations,we use the fracture toughness failure criterion in peridynamics to simulate the quasi-brittle failure of ice.An adaptive particle refinement method in peridynamics was proposed to improve computational efficiency.The results obtained using the peridynamic model were compared with the experiments in previous literatures.It was found that the peridynamic simulation results and the experiments matched well except for some minor differences discussed,and the state-based peridynamic model has shown the specific predictive capacity to capture the detailed crater features of the ice.

A coupled ice-ocean model for the Bohai Sea Ⅰ. Study on model and parameter

According to the earlier international studies on the coupled iceocean model and the hydrology, meteorology, and icefeatures in the Bohai Sea, a coupled iceocean model is developed based on the National Marine EnvironmentForecast Centers (NMEFC) numerical forecasting ice model of the Bohai Sea and the Princeton ocean model (POM).In the coupled model, the transfer of momentum and heat between ocean and ice is two-way, and the change of icethickness and concentration depends on heat budget not only at the surface and bottom of ice, but also at the surfaceof open water between ices. The dynamic and thermodynamic coupling process is expatiated emphatically. Somethermodynamic parameters are discussed as well.

Mean Climatic Characteristics in High Northern Latitudes in an Ocean-Sea Ice-Atmosphere Coupled Model

Emphasizing the model's ability in mean climate reproduction in high northern latitudes, results from an ocean-sea ice-atmosphere coupled model are analyzed. It is shown that the coupled model can simulate the main characteristics of annual mean global sea surface temperature and sea level pressure well, but the extent of ice coverage produced in the Southern Hemisphere is not large enough. The main distribution characteristics of simulated sea level pressure and temperature at 850 hPa in high northern latitudes agree well with their counterparts in the NCEP reanalysis dataset, and the model can reproduce the Arctic Oscillation (AO) mode successfully. The simulated seasonal variation of sea ice in the Northern Hemisphere is rational and its main distribution features in winter agree well with those from observations. But the ice concentration in the sea ice edge area close to the Eurasian continent in the inner Arctic Ocean is much larger than the observation. There are significant interannual variation signals in the simulated sea ice concentration in winter in high northern latitudes and the most significant area lies in the Greenland Sea, followed by the Barents Sea. All of these features agree well with the results from observations.

Model Test Study of Dynamic Ice Force on Compliant Conical Structures

To study ice-induced vibration of a compliant conical structure, a series of model tests were performed from 2004 to 2005. In the tests, the ice sheet before the compliant conical structure was found to fail in two-time breaking. From 2005 to 2006, this type of ice failure was studied through more groups of tests. The tests show that two-time breaking is the typical failure of ice before steep conical structures, and is controlled by other factors at the same time, such as ice speed and the angle of the cone.

A modified discrete element model for sea ice dynamics

Considering the discontinuous characteristics of sea ice on various scales,a modified discrete element model（DEM） for sea ice dynamics is developed based on the granular material rheology.In this modified DEM,a soft sea ice particle element is introduced as a self-adjustive particle size function.Each ice particle can be treated as an assembly of ice floes,with its concentration and thickness changing to variable sizes under the conservation of mass.In this model,the contact forces among ice particles are calculated using a viscous-elastic-plastic model,while the maximum shear forces are described with the Mohr-Coulomb friction law.With this modified DEM,the ice flow dynamics is simulated under the drags of wind and current in a channel of various widths.The thicknesses,concentrations and velocities of ice particles are obtained,and then reasonable dynamic process is analyzed.The sea ice dynamic process is also simulated in a vortex wind field.Taking the influence of thermodynamics into account,this modified DEM will be improved in the future work.

Modelling on seasonal lake ice evolution in central Asian arid climate zone: a case study

The seasonal cycle of ice thickness and temperature in Lake Wuliangsuhai,a typical shallow lake in the central Asian arid climate zone,was simulated using the HIGHTSI model and the MERRA-2 data as the meteorological forcing.The average ice growth rate was 0.64 cm·d^(−1) and −1.65 cm·d^(−1) for the growth and melting stage of the ice cover,respectively.The ice thickness agreed well with the field observations conducted in winter 2017,with a correlation coefficient of 0.97.The ice temperature field also agreed with observations in both daily variations and the vertical profile,and a better agreement in the daily amplitude and profile shape of ice temperature could be achieved if field data on physical properties of snow cover andmelting ice were available.This study proved the feasibility of both the HIGHTSI model and the MERRA-2 data for modeling the ice cover evolution in Lake Wuliangsuhai,providing a basis for a deep insight into the difference of lake ice evolution between central Asian arid climate zone and polar/sub-polar regions.

Observation and modelling of snow and sea ice mass balance and its sensitivity to atmospheric forcing during spring and summer 2007 in the Central Arctic

Snow depth and sea ice thickness were observed applying an ice mass balance buoy(IMB)in the drifting ice station Tara during the International Polar Year in 2007.Detailed in situ observations on meteorological variables and surface fluxes were taken during May to August.For this study,the operational analyses and short-term forecasts from two numerical weather prediction(NWP)models(ECMWF and HIRLAM)were extracted for the Tara drift trajectory.We compared the IMB,meteorological and surface flux observations against the NWP products,also applying a one-dimensional thermodynamic sea ice model(HIGHTSI)to calculate the snow and ice mass balance and its sensitivity to atmospheric forcing.The modelled snow depth time series,controlled by NWP-based precipitation,was in line with the observed one.HIGHTSI reproduced well the snowmelt onset,the progress of the melt,and the first date of snow-free conditions.HIGHTSI performed well also in the late August freezing season.Challenges remain to model the“false bottom”observed during the melting season.The evolution of the vertical temperature profiles in snow and ice was better simulated when the model was forced by in situ observations instead of NWP results.During the melting period,the nonlinear ice temperature profile was successfully modelled with both forcing options.During spring and the melting season,total sea ice mass balance was most sensitive to uncertainties in NWP results for the downward longwave radiation,followed by the downward shortwave radiation,air temperature,and wind speed.

Model Test Study on Ice-Induced Vibrations of Compliant Multi-Cone Structures

For the study on the ice-induced vibration of a compliant mono-cone structure,a series of model tests were performed from 2004 to 2006.In these tests,the ice sheet before the compliant conical structure was found to be failed in two-time breaking.Based on this important finding,model tests study of the ice force on a compliant multi-cone structure were performed from 2006 to 2007.In these tests,the ice sheet broke before each single cone non-simultaneously.The exciting energy of the total ice force was found to be in a wide range of frequencies,and the structure can be easily excited with nonlinear resonance.

Model Test Study on Ice Induced Vibration of A Compliant Conical Structure

The problem of ice induced vibration is common to ocean engineering of cold region countries. To study the ice induced vibration of a compliant conical structure, a series of model tests have been performed and some breakthrough progresses made. The ice sheet before the compliant conical structure is found to fail by two-time breaking in the tests. The process of two-time breaking behaves in two modes, and the general control of the ice and structural conditions determine the mode in which the ice force would behave. Two dynamic ice force functions are established respectively for the two modes of two-time breaking process in this paper. The numerical simulation results are in good agreement with the measured results, indicating that the dynamic ice force functions given in this paper can fully reflect the real situation of the dynamic ice force on a compliant conical structure.

Evaluation of Arctic Sea Ice Drift and its Relationship with Near-surface Wind and Ocean Current in Nine CMIP6 Models from China

The simulated Arctic sea ice drift and its relationship with the near-surface wind and surface ocean current during 1979-2014 in nine models from China that participated in the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP6)are examined by comparison with observational and reanalysis datasets.Most of the models reasonably represent the Beaufort Gyre(BG)and Transpolar Drift Stream(TDS)in the spatial patterns of their long-term mean sea ice drift,while the detailed location,extent,and strength of the BG and TDS vary among the models.About two-thirds of the models agree with the observation/reanalysis in the sense that the sea ice drift pattern is consistent with the near-surface wind pattern.About the same proportion of models shows that the sea ice drift pattern is consistent with the surface ocean current pattern.In the observation/reanalysis,however,the sea ice drift pattern does not match well with the surface ocean current pattern.All nine models missed the observational widespread sea ice drift speed acceleration across the Arctic.For the Arctic basin-wide spatial average,five of the nine models overestimate the Arctic long-term(1979-2014)mean sea ice drift speed in all months.Only FGOALS-g3 captures a significant sea ice drift speed increase from 1979 to 2014 both in spring and autumn.The increases are weaker than those in the observation.This evaluation helps assess the performance of the Arctic sea ice drift simulations in these CMIP6 models from China.

Introduction of parameterized sea ice drag coefficients into ice free-drift modeling

Many interesting characteristics of sea ice drift depend on the atmospheric drag coefficient （Ca） and oceanic drag coefficient （Cw）. Parameterizations of drag coefficients rather than constant values provide us a way to look insight into the dependence of these characteristics on sea ice conditions. In the present study, the parameterized ice drag coefficients are included into a free-drift sea ice dynamic model, and the wind factor a and the deflection angle θ between sea ice drift and wind velocity as well as the ratio of Ca to Cw are studied to investigate their dependence on the impact factors such as local drag coefficients, floe and ridge geometry. The results reveal that in an idealized steady ocean, Ca/Cw increases obviously with the increasing ice concentration for small ice floes in the marginal ice zone, while it remains at a steady level （0.2-0.25） for large floes in the central ice zone. The wind factor a increases rapidly at first and approaches a steady level of 0.018 when A is greater than 20%. And the deflection angle ~ drops rapidly from an initial value of approximate 80° and decreases slowly as A is greater than 20% without a steady level like a. The values of these parameters agree well with the previously reported observations in Arctic. The ridging intensity is an important parameter to determine the dominant contribution of the ratio of skin friction drag coefficient （Cs＇/Cs） and the ratio of ridge form drag coefficient （Cr＇/Cr） to the value of Ca/Cw, a, and 8, because of the dominance of ridge form drag for large ridging intensity and skin friction for small ridging intensity among the total drag forces. Parameterization of sea ice drag coefficients has the potential to be embedded into ice dynamic models to better account for the variability of sea ice in the transient Arctic Ocean.

Snow and sea ice thermodynamics in the Arctic:Model validation and sensitivity study against SHEBA data

Evolution of the Arctic sea ice and its snow cover during the SHEBA year were simulated by applying a high-resolution thermodynamic snow/ice model （HIGHTSI）. Attention was paid to the impact of albedo on snow and sea ice mass balance, effect of snow on total ice mass balance, and the model vertical resolution. The SHEBA annual simulation was made applying the best possible external forcing data set created by the Sea Ice Model Intercomparison Project. The HIGHTSI control run reasonably reproduced the observed snow and ice thickness. A number of albedo schemes were incorporated into HIGHTSI to study the feedback processes between the albedo and snow and ice thickness. The snow thickness turned out to be an essential variable in the albedo parameterization. Albedo schemes dependent on the surface temperature were liable to excessive positive feedback effects generated by errors in the modelled surface temperature. The superimposed ice formation should be taken into account for the annual Arctic sea ice mass balance.