Estimation of Land Production and Its Response to Cultivated Land Conversion in North China Plain

Food safety and its related influencing factors in China are the hot research topics currently,and cultivated land conversion is one of the significant factors influencing food safety in China.Taking the North China Plain as the study area,this paper examines the changes of cultivated land area using satellite images,estimates land productivity from 1985 to 2005 using the model of Estimation System for Land Productivity(ESLP),and analyzes the impact of cultivated land conversion on the land production.Compared with the grain yield data from statistical yearbooks,the results indicate that ESLP model is an effective tool for estimating land productivity.Land productivity in the North China Plain showed a slight decreasing trend from 1985 to 2005,spatially,increased from the north to the south gradu-ally,and the net changes varied in different areas.Cultivated land area recorded a marginal decrease of 8.0 × 105 ha,mainly converted to other land uses.Cultivated land conversion had more significant negative impacts on land produc-tion than land productivity did.Land production decreased by about 6.48 × 106 t caused by cultivated land conversion between 1985 and 2005,accounting for 91.9% of the total land production reduction.Although the land productivity increased in Anhui and Jiangsu provinces,it can not offset the overall adverse effects caused by cultivated land con-version.Therefore,there are significant meanings to control the cultivated land conversion and improve the land pro-ductivity for ensuring the land production in the North China Plain.

Grain Production and Cultivated Land in China

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DYNAMIC CHARACTERISTICS OF PRESENT PRODUCTIVITY FOR CULTIVATED LAND IN THE FARNMING-PASTORAL ZONE OF INNER MONGOLIA

In this article, the distribution of cultivated land, the changes ofcultivated land productivity, and regional differentiation of the Change forpresent productivity in the Farming-Pastoral Zone, Inner Mongolia arediscussed. Then, the close relationship between dynamic characterlsticsdivision and atmospheric circulation systems is revealed. Finally, based ondynamic characteristics, four regions are divided, including thenortheastem area, the eastern area, the western area, and the middle area.

Analysis on the Influencing Factors and Control Measures of "Non-Grain Conversion" of Cultivated Land in Agricultural Land Transfer

Through the method of literature analysis,this paper analyzes the present situation of the"non-grain conversion"of cultivated land in the transfer of agricultural land in China,summarizes the influencing factors and consequences of the phenomenon of"non-grain conversion"of cultivated land in the transfer of agricultural land,and finally puts forward some measures.The study found that costs and benefits are the fundamental factors affecting the"non-grain conversion"of cultivated land in agricultural land transfer,and other main factors include government and policy guidance,industrial and commercial capital to the countryside,labor transfer and so on.The"non-grain conversion"of cultivated land in the transfer of agricultural land is a serious threat to China s food security,leading to the decline of the quality of agricultural land and the destruction of the ecological environment,as well as the risk of breach of contract in"industrial and commercial capital to the countryside".Based on the understanding of the influencing factors of non-grain conversion,this paper puts forward the following measures:strengthening the control of the use of cultivated land in agricultural land transfer;implementing accurate subsidies for grain cultivation and ensuring the benefit of grain growers;adopting grain planting incentive mechanism to increase grain enthusiasm;strengthening media publicity and education to enhance food security awareness.The improvement of the current situation of the"non-grain conversion"of cultivated land in the transfer of agricultural land will be of great significance to the protection of agricultural land and food security in China.

Research Progress,Problems and Prospects of"Non-grain"of Cultivated Land in China

This study aims to sort out the relevant research results of"non-grain"of cultivated land in China,summarize the research progress,and put forward questions and prospects,so as to provide theoretical reference for the research on solving the problem of"non-grain"of cultivated land to ensure food security and promote industrial development.Literature analysis and comparative analysis were adopted.Most of the previous studies used the planting structure to measure the"non-grain"level of cultivated land,and few studies took changes in the quality and quantity of cultivated land as the breakthrough point.On the research scale,most of them were carried out in provinces and municipalities,and there were few multi-scale coupling studies that combined macro and micro scales.Driving factors and macro management and control strategies were the main research content,and there was little research on the construction of regional synergistic systems.In terms of research methods,most of them were quantitative analysis using mathematical statistical models,and few studies combined spatial analysis technology,model simulation and other methods.It is necessary to build a system for measuring the"grain"level of cultivated land,improve the accuracy of research results,strengthen multi-scale coupling research on"point,line,plane,and volume",establish a regional collaborative governance mechanism,explore the application of 3S technology and geographic simulation,and grasp the temporal and spatial evolution and development trend of"non-grain"of cultivated land.

Inconsistent increasing of climate potential productivity resulting from global warming and land use transitions in the Dongting Lake Basin,from 2000 to 2020

In the face of global warming and increasing impervious surfaces,quantifying the change of climate potential productivity(CPP)is of great significance for the food production planning.Targeting the Dongting Lake Basin,which is a key area for food production in China,this paper uses meteorological data,as well as Climate Change Initiative Land Cover,and Shuttle Radar Topography Mission digital elevation model to investigate the CPP and its changes from 2000 to 2020.The suitability of land for cultivation(SLC),and the land use/land cover change(LUCC)are also considered.The results showed that the CPP varied from 9,825 to 20,895 kg ha^(-1).Even though the newly added impervious surfaces indirectly resulted in the decrease of CPP by of 9.81×10~8 kg,overall,the CPP increased at an average rate of 83.7 kg ha^(-1)a^(-1).Global warming is the strongest driver behind CPP increase,and CPP has played an important role in the conversions between cultivated land and other land types.The structure of land types tends to be optimized against this challenge.

Changes in Land Use and Agricultural Production Structure Before and After the Implementation of Grain for Green Program in Western China–Taking Two Typical Counties as Examples

Soil erosion becomes a serious environmental problem in the world, especially in western China. An effective management practice called the Grain for Green Program(GGP), which was launched in 1999, aims to reduce soil and water loss and alleviate the ecological environment problem in western China. Two typical counties in western China, the Zhongxian(in Chongqing Municipality) and Ansai(in Shaanxi Province) were chosen to evaluate the dynamic changes of land use and agricultural production structure before and after the implementation of the Program in this paper. The results showed that the cultivated land area was reduced by 7.08% from 1989 to 2003. The cultivated land per person was decreased by 8.42% during 1999-2003. Moreover, the stability index of the secondary sector of the economy was increased from 0.91 in the period 1990-1999 to 0.94 in the following ten years. In addition, the stability index of tertiary economic sector increased from 0.88 to 0.92 in Zhongxian county. Meanwhile, the cultivated land area was reduced by 15.48% from 1990 to 1999. The soil erosion modulus was decreased by 33.33% from 1999 to 2006. Also, the stability index of secondary and tertiary economic sectors was 0.86 in the period 1998-2002. However, it decreased by 77% during 2002 to 2007 in Ansai County. These results imply that the Grain for Green Program had different impact on the two regions. Several effective strategies of soil and water conservation have been carried out to ameliorate the sustainable development of ecological environment and economy in these two counties of western China.

Early Warning of Cultivated Land Quality Based on Multiple Indicators

At present,the quality protection and early warning of cultivated land in China are actually based on the increase and decrease of the quantity of cultivated land and the change of its quality.The early warning of cultivated land quality based on this is easy to cause the problem of missing and wrong alarm.Based on the quality and productivity change of regional cultivated land,early warning on the regional cultivated land quality is conducted in this study respectively,and the results of the two early warning are compared.Moreover,a multi-indicator cultivated land quality early warning based on the quality change,productivity change and auxiliary indicators is proposed.The results show that:early warning of cultivated land quality based on quality and productivity change of cultivated land has certain limitations.Based on multi-indicator early warning,the number of counties with heavy,medium and light warnings in Henan Province is 52,8 and 11 respectively.The multi-indicator early warning result of cultivated land quality is more accurate,which can provide a basis for cultivated land protection and management assessment,and has great application value.

东北三省耕地利用格局变化对粮食全要素生产率的影响

耕地是粮食生产最基本的要素,当前粮食需求扩大与粮食生产区域性不足矛盾突出,寻求更合理的耕地利用格局来实现粮食全要素生产率的提升具有重要意义。本研究基于土地利用/土地覆被变化(LUCC)遥感监测数据,应用GIS软件提取东北三省2000、2005、2010、2015年耕地利用格局相关数据,同时运用数据包络分析模型估算了2000、2005、2010年和2015年东北三省区域和市域粮食全要素生产率。在耕地利用格局变化分析和粮食全要素生产率测算的基础上,从耕地利用格局变化的角度选取指标构建面板数据模型,定量分析其对粮食全要素生产率的影响。结果表明:东北三省市域粮食全要素生产率4个时期均值分别为0.81、0.78、0.82和0.83,粮食全要素生产率空间分布从最初的相对均匀到局部集聚;耕地转出率和耕地斑块破碎度与粮食全要素生产率呈负相关关系,耕地面积比例、耕地转入率和耕地斑块聚合度与粮食全要素生产率呈正相关关系;东北三省粮食全要素生产率提高主要源于耕地面积增加、林地和未利用地向耕地的转入以及耕地在流域的聚合,粮食全要素生产率的降低主要源于耕地转入减少和建设用地对耕地的嵌入式占用。研究表明,严格规划耕地利用格局、持续开展土地整理、提高耕地聚合度,可在保证耕地有效数量的同时,提高耕地利用格局的集聚性和合理性,促进粮食全要素生产率的提升。

上海新村乡土壤养分时空变异研究与耕地质量评价

以崇明区新村乡为调查区域,基于高密度采样数据,对研究区土壤有机质、水解氮、有效磷和速效钾等土壤养分进行了时空变异特征和影响因素分析。结果表明:新村乡土壤有机质、水解氮、有效磷和速效钾的平均含量分别为19.1 g∕kg、100.6 mg∕kg、14.0 mg∕kg和136.6 mg∕kg。土壤有机质和有效磷含量偏低,土壤有机质含量大于30 g∕kg的土壤仅占2.8%,土壤有效磷含量在5—10 mg∕kg的缺磷土壤占23.3%,不同点位土壤养分的时空变化差异较大。为有效推进新村乡优质米绿色生产和土壤健康,建议推行绿肥轮作休耕、养分精准管理与根际土壤调控等技术,实现新村乡农业高质量发展。

耕地经营规模对农户水稻生产生态效率的影响——以常德市为例

提高水稻生产生态效率是协同实现保障粮食产量稳增长与减少粮食生产环境损耗双目标的关键路径,耕地作为农业生产活动最基本的生产资料之一,探索耕地经营规模对农户水稻生产生态效率的影响对促进农业适度规模化经营和耕地可持续利用具有重要意义。本文基于粮食生产微观主体——农户的视角,从理论上揭示耕地经营规模对农户水稻生产生态效率的影响,并利用常德市416份农户问卷调查数据,运用随机前沿分析法构建效率测算模型和影响模型进行实证检验。研究表明:农户耕地规模化水平和水稻生产生态效率均有待提升,样本农户中较小规模农户数量最多,占总样本的94.95%,较小规模农户仍是农业生产的主力;农户水稻生产生态效率均值为0.830,还存在0.170的提升空间。耕地经营规模对农户水稻生产生态效率有显著影响,二者并非简单线性关系而是呈“倒U型”关系,且拐点所在区间为1.2~1.4 hm2;农户水稻生产生态效率还受到户主受教育程度、抚养比、农业收入占比的显著正向影响和户主年龄的显著负向影响。因此,应在尊重较小规模农户将长期存在这一现实的基础上,进一步推进耕地适度规模经营并培育新型农户,以促进水稻生产生态效率提高。

赣南低山丘陵区农业产业结构“非粮化”空间分异及其驱动力探测--以寻乌县为例

为刻画赣南低山丘陵区农业产业结构“非粮化”空间分布差异,严格落实耕地保护和科学管控“非粮化”,本研究以江西省寻乌县为例,采用地理探测器因子检测、交互作用检测等方法揭示赣南低山丘陵区农业产业结构“非粮化”空间分异特征及其成因。结果表明:2020年寻乌县农业产业结构“非粮化”水平为19.42%,以耕地转为林地和园地为主。农业产业结构“非粮化”空间分异与耕地本底条件、自然资源禀赋、经济区位、政策环境4个维度的因子均显著相关,而地形、农田基础设施条件、耕地连片度是农业产业结构“非粮化”空间分异的主导驱动因子。不同农业产业类型“非粮化”的关键驱动因子不同,多数因子对耕地发展林果业和设施农业的驱动方向相反,农业产业结构“非粮化”因子交互作用均为双因子增强或非线性增强。研究表明,赣南低山丘陵区农业产业结构“非粮化”空间分异明显,需要管控农业产业结构“非粮化”总量并客观分类处置,本研究为“非粮化”分类监测和客观处置提供了参考,为低山丘陵区优化农业资源要素配置和农业产业空间布局提出建议。

碳排放约束下耕地利用推动粮食生产的逻辑关联、现实矛盾与路径优化

耕地利用是国家粮食安全的重要保障,在碳排放约束背景下探究其与粮食生产之间的有机关联有助于揭示“土-碳-粮”三要素复杂的逻辑关系。该研究基于归纳演绎法与理论分析法,在梳理碳约束下耕地利用与粮食生产逻辑关系的基础上,深入分析粮食安全保障与碳减排背景下中国耕地可持续利用面临的挑战,并提出促进耕地绿色转型升级与粮食综合生产能力提高的优化路径。结果表明:1)碳排放约束下耕地利用与粮食生产之间紧密的逻辑关联形成了复杂的“土-碳-粮”要素系统;2)当前农业生产条件下实施耕地利用碳减排对国家粮食安全具有不确定性影响,但粮食稳产与增产仍将造成大量碳排放;3)为有效改善碳排放约束下耕地利用与粮食生产的紧平衡状态,从耕地保护、碳减排、粮食生产三方面通过耕地资源配置优化、碳交易市场构建、粮食生产结构调整等方式实现“土-碳-粮”要素协调路径优化。未来需合理规划耕地空间利用格局,采取多种政策工具,转变耕地利用方式,促进耕地低碳、绿色利用与国家粮食安全的可持续协同发展。

基于GlobeLand30数据的中国耕地与粮食生产的时空变化分析

21世纪初期,中国耕地与粮食产量变化区域差异明显,为了解21世纪初期中国耕地与粮食生产的时空变化及粮食生产对耕地面积变化的响应,该文利用2000年和2010年两期30 m分辨率的全球地表覆盖数据(Globe Land30),借助统计分析手段对2000-2010年中国耕地和粮食生产的时空变化和粮食生产对耕地面积的依赖程度进行分析。结果表明:1)中国耕地主要分布在东部地区,研究时段内,耕地与林地、草地和人工表面之间的转换最多,耕地变化的特点是"西增东减,总量减少",面积净减少了104.03万hm2,年均减少10.4万hm2。2)中国的粮食生产主要集中在东北、华北和南方地区。粮食产量变化的特点是"北增南减,总量增加"。3)中国耕地分布的集中程度会影响粮食生产的集中程度,且粮食生产分布的集中程度普遍高于耕地。中国耕地分布重心和粮食生产分布重心的移动方向相反,耕地面积的分布表现出了"南退西移"的趋势,粮食生产的重心则是"北上东移",中国的粮食生产格局已转变为"北粮南调"。4)全国有32.24%县(市)的粮食生产都表现出了对耕地数量的依赖,主要分布在东北、华北、西部、长城沿线、西南和东南沿海地区。中国耕地保护政策的制定和粮食生产的可持续发展应该遵循因地制宜的原则,在粮食生产对耕地变化敏感性高的地区,应该加强对耕地数量、质量的保护和农户种粮积极性的提高,更要重视不敏感地区耕地地力的保护和单产水平的提高,以保障中国的粮食安全。

海南省耕地利用与粮食生产耦合协调发展研究

建立了海南省耕地利用与粮食生产的耦合协调模型,从时序上对2010—2021年海南省耕地利用与粮食生产的发展和相互影响进行了分析,并从空间上对2021年海南省18个市(县)耕地利用与粮食生产的发展状况进行分析,结果表明:(1)2010—2021年耕地利用与粮食生产之间的协调程度逐步增强,由勉强协调型逐渐向基本协调型、良好协调型发展;(2)2010—2021年耕地利用与粮食生产之间的耦合协调度不断提升,总体协同效应也在不断地提升,但耕地利用与粮食生产发展仍处于不完全同步的状态;(3)2021年海南省除琼海市外的17个市(县)的耕地利用与粮食生产均处于高水平耦合阶段,而琼海市耕地利用与粮食生产处于磨合阶段。由此可知,海南省应严格管控耕地数量,稳定粮食播种面积;加强耕地质量管理,提高耕地生产能力;加强对自然灾害的抵御能力,降低损失。

农户加入合作社的耕地质量保护效应

基于2020年中国乡村振兴调查的农户数据,实证检验加入合作社对农户采纳耕地质量保护行为的影响及作用机制。结果表明:加入合作社对农户进行耕地质量保护具有显著正向促进作用,这与合作社提供的农业生产技术与培训服务、农产品溢价激励与传递农业生产信息有关,经稳健性检验后该结论依然成立;机制分析表明,加入合作社主要通过提供农业社会化服务和提高农户绿色生产认知两条路径促进农户采纳耕地质量保护行为;异质性分析表明,加入合作社对家庭土地经营规模较大、中西部地区、农业收入预期较高及未经历过土地调整的农户采纳耕地质量保护行为的影响更为显著。据此,建议发挥合作社的组织平台作用、创新合作社发展模式、加强政府对合作社的政策扶持力度以及全面推广合作社培训制度,以实现耕地质量保护。

耕地布局北移对粮食产能的影响分析

耕地是粮食生产的命根子,是中华民族永续发展的根基。近年来,各地认真贯彻“藏粮于地、藏粮于技”战略,狠抓耕地要害,粮食单产水平稳步提高,种植结构不断优化,粮食总产量持续稳定在6500亿kg以上。但同时全国耕地面积总体呈下降趋势,特别是耕地布局持续北移,造成一定程度的粮食产能损失。本研究运用基尼系数和泰尔指数分析方法,选取2000—2020年31个省(自治区、直辖市)粮食产量指标,分析产区间差异变化,并对耕地数量、布局、占补平衡等影响因素对粮食产能的损失进行测算。与2009年相比,2019年受耕地数量、布局北移、占补平衡等影响,粮食产能合计损失约1500亿kg。其中,耕地数量减少造成损失约565亿kg;耕地布局北移造成损失约905亿kg,占补平衡造成损失约34亿kg。此外,水田减少影响粮食产能损失约225亿kg。确保国家粮食安全,必须坚决贯彻落实习近平总书记重要指示批示和有关重要论述精神,采取“长牙齿”的硬措施,守牢耕地红线,切实加强耕地质量保护与建设,谋划实施一揽子耕地质量建设工程,多措并举,提升耕地综合生产能力。

近20年河南省耕地非粮化时空分异及驱动力分析

耕地是育种成粮的基础条件,研究耕地非粮化的时空演变格局及驱动因素,对于严格保护耕地、保障国家粮食安全具有重要意义。基于河南省2000—2020年土地利用数据,利用标准差椭圆模型、热点分析、地理探测器等方法对河南省耕地非粮化水平进行了时空演变分析和驱动因子探测。研究结果表明:(1)2000—2020年间河南省耕地非粮化面积达到3007.10 km2,占现状研究区耕地总面积的2.90%,尤以2015—2020年最多;其中信阳市的耕地非粮化面积最多,达到754.14 km2,占耕地非粮化总面积的25.08%。(2)2000—2020年间耕地非粮化热点区域集中在研究区的西部和南部,耕地非粮化重心主要分布在平顶山市,重心整体向南迁移。(3)河南省耕地非粮化受农业、经济和社会因素的共同影响,农业因素对研究区的耕地非粮化影响力较大,任一影响因子与其他因子交互作用表现出双因子增强和非线性增强效果。河南省耕地非粮化呈现出明显的时空分异特征。

和田地区耕地时空演变的生产-生态效应研究

耕地在干旱区土地利用中是贡献显著的重要地类,分析其生产-生态效应时空变化有助于解释耕地变化在区域粮食生产与生态环境保护中的作用,为实现生产-生态协同保护提供参考。本研究基于1990、2000、2010、2020年的土地利用分类数据,运用土地利用转移矩阵、耕地生产水平假设模型、遥感生态指数(RSEI)模型,揭示和田地区耕地时空演变下的生产-生态效应。结果表明:1990—2020年,研究区耕地面积增加了1702.63 km^(2)。8个县(市)耕地面积变化趋势相同,但差异显著,未利用地开垦和林、草地复垦是新增耕地的主要来源;退耕还林还草、建设用地扩张和耕地荒废是耕地减少的主要原因;耕地生产水平向好发展,无生产耕地占比下降12个百分点,中、中高生产耕地总占比增加14个百分点。从耕地生产效应来看,研究区固定耕地生产正效应(面积占比55%)大于负效应(面积占比2%),耕地转移效应(面积占比43%)有效弥补了流失的生产效应面积,然而从各阶段效应来看,固定负效应面积逐渐增加,固定正效应面积逐渐减少,转移效应面积呈现波动下降趋势。研究区耕地等级主要为一般生态等级,耕地生态环境质量呈恶化趋势,固定耕地生态环境质量恶化面积为改善面积的2倍以上;转移耕地恶化面积为改善面积的近1.4倍。阶段性变化中,耕地生态环境质量在前20年得到改善,而后10年出现恶化,其原因在于固定耕地和转出耕地生态环境质量下降。研究表明,研究区耕地变化促进了区域生产的提高,但同时导致耕地生态环境质量逐渐恶化。因此,在未来的国土空间规划与管理中应坚持生产-生态融合发展,优化土地资源配置。

耕地细碎化对农户种植业收入的影响——“非粮化”和耕地流转率的调节效应

耕地细碎化会导致农户种植活动的分散化,减少了农户的有效劳动时间,并阻碍了机械化作业的开展,不利于种植业的增产增收。采用“全国农村固定观察点调查”2009—2020年的面板数据,以种植主导型农户为研究样本,分析发现:农户的耕地细碎化程度提高对其种植业收入具有显著的负向影响,该结论在经过一系列稳健性检验和内生性处理后依然成立;家庭种植结构“非粮化”和村庄耕地流转率提高可以显著弱化耕地细碎化对农户种植业收入增长的抑制作用;相对而言,耕地细碎化对化肥施用强度较高农户、老龄化程度较高农户、丘陵山区农户的种植业收入具有更强的负向影响。因此,应促进耕地流转市场发育,加强农村土地整治,提高粮食生产比较收益,推动化肥农药使用减量增效,拓展优化农业社会化服务,在降低农户耕地细碎化程度的同时,有效缓解耕地细碎化对农民收入增长的抑制作用。