The main purpose of this study is to ascertain the effect of bank-specific and macroeconomic factors on non-performing loans in systemically and non-systemically important commercial banks in Sri Lanka over 10 year’s...The main purpose of this study is to ascertain the effect of bank-specific and macroeconomic factors on non-performing loans in systemically and non-systemically important commercial banks in Sri Lanka over 10 year’s period from 2004 to 2013.Also,the study examines the impact of civil war that prevailed in the country for 30 years on the ex-post credit risk of the banking sector.The study employed panel data methodology to investigate the effect of bank-specific and macroeconomic factors on non-performing loans.Panel unit root test has been undertaken in order to test the stationary of the variables.Hausman test and Wald coefficient restriction test were used to select the appropriate model out of pooled,random,and fixed effect.A dummy variable panel regression model adopted to study the war effect,considering 2009 as the structural year.Findings revealed that return on assets as a proxy for bank efficiency has a significant negative influence,while non-interest income as a proxy for income diversity is positively correlated with non-performing loans of systemically important banks.Both real gross domestic products and lending rates were highly significant in both bank types.On contrary with literature,growth in bank branches is negatively correlated.Public banks do not account for higher level of non-performing loans compared to their private counterpart.Finally,it was identified that civil war had an effect on the level of non-performing loans in commercial banks.The research would have benefited if the analysis is carried out among classified types of loans offered by commercial banks.Future researchers should involve in identifying the most significant contributing loan type to the non-performing loans and its determinants.This study is one of the few studies which have investigated the causes of non-performing loans in the commercial banking industry in Sri Lanka.The analysis of civil war and its impact on non-performing loans is the first study of that nature to be conducted in the context.展开更多
In the 21st century, while the scope of banking activities has been expanding every day, collecting deposits and providing credit remain as their main and most important functions. They transfer the collected funds th...In the 21st century, while the scope of banking activities has been expanding every day, collecting deposits and providing credit remain as their main and most important functions. They transfer the collected funds thanks to the market confidence they create back to the market in terms of the credits they give. For the organizations operating in the banking sector, crediting is the highest revenue earning source. However, uncollected loans may disrupt the activities of banks and may reduce their effectiveness. Therefore, the control of bank credits has a particular importance in the bank balance sheets. In this study, the relationship between bank balance sheets and non-performing loans (NPL) will be analyzed using Granger causality test and vector autoregressive (VAR) method. This study aims to discuss the impact of NPL on balance sheets and contribute to making correct credit decisions. It also intends to assist to reduce the NPL ratios of banks and minimize the level of negativity in their financial statements.展开更多
In this paper, through analyzing the necessity of the securitization of the non-performing loans of China's state-owned banks, the author proposes some tentative ideas for the securitization of the non-performing loa...In this paper, through analyzing the necessity of the securitization of the non-performing loans of China's state-owned banks, the author proposes some tentative ideas for the securitization of the non-performing loans and works out some problems that need to be solved in this process.展开更多
Home mortgage loan lending firms are exposed to many business risks.This paper focuses on the mortgage loan borrower risks and proposes a prospective loss analysis approach in regard to loan repayment defaults of borr...Home mortgage loan lending firms are exposed to many business risks.This paper focuses on the mortgage loan borrower risks and proposes a prospective loss analysis approach in regard to loan repayment defaults of borrowers.For this purpose,a predictive modeling is presented in three stages.In the first stage,occurrence of borrower defaults in a mortgage loans portfolio is modeled through the generalized linear models(GLMs)type regressions for which we specify a logistic distribution for default events.The second stage of modeling develops a survival analysis in order to estimate survival probability and hazard rate functions for individual loans.Ultimately,an expectable loss amount model is presented in the third stage as a function of conditional survival probabilities and corresponding hazard rates at loan levels.Throughout all modeling stages,a large and real data set is used as an empirical analysis case by which detailed interpretations and practical implications of the obtained results are stated.展开更多
This paper develops a model where two lenders to subprime borrowers compete with the interest rates charged and the severity of loan covenants. The model has a stable equilibrium, which demonstrates how an increase in...This paper develops a model where two lenders to subprime borrowers compete with the interest rates charged and the severity of loan covenants. The model has a stable equilibrium, which demonstrates how an increase in the number of borrowers or an increase in the cost of meeting covenants will reduce the severity of the covenants required by lenders, and each of these changes will increase the difference in the severity of the loan covenant levels. An increase in the expected losses to the lender from relaxing covenants will increase the severity of loan covenants, and this will also make the levels of severity more dispersed. Additional analysis demonstrates how exogenous shifts affect the interest rates charged by the lenders and their profits展开更多
This study is motivated by the lack of direct empirical research on the relationship between intangible assets (IA) and loan interest rates for small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in emerging markets. This ...This study is motivated by the lack of direct empirical research on the relationship between intangible assets (IA) and loan interest rates for small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in emerging markets. This study uses a multivariate regression to investigate the effects of 1A on loan interest rates by focusing on SMEs. Using a panel sample of 186 publicly-listed SMEs with 952 annual observations in Taiwan from 2001 to 2006, the empirical findings indicate that an SME's IA does negatively affect loan interest rates. The main contribution of this study lies in its direct testing of whether IA can affect the loan interest rates for SMEs in an emerging market. The finding provides empirical evidence that an SME with greater IA leads to lower interest rates on bank loans, implying that SMEs should strive to invest in IA and enhance their knowledge management for obtaining more benefits of loan interest rates. Furthermore, the findings may provide empirical evidence for SMEs in emerging markets and can be compared with those for firms in industrialized economies.展开更多
Background:The dramatic loan growth and changes in the Pakistani banking system in mid-2000s have led to significant research attention on borrowers and lenders.This expansion and diversification in financial sector w...Background:The dramatic loan growth and changes in the Pakistani banking system in mid-2000s have led to significant research attention on borrowers and lenders.This expansion and diversification in financial sector was driven by structural reforms,political stability and significant economic growth.Against this background,this study investigates the loan growth and risk-taking behavior of the banks during the expansionary periods of lending.Method:This study used dynamic two-step system generalized method of moment’s estimation technique,based on data taken from 32 banks in Pakistan over 2006-2014.Result:Loan growth has a significant effect on bank-specific and macroeconomicspecific variables.Loan growth in the previous year raises non-performing loans and decreases the solvency of banks with a time lag of many years.The driving force behind this phenomenon is weak prudential regulation among competitors,the asymmetric information of the borrowers,and,most importantly,that banks underestimate the risk of lending during credit booms.Conclusion:More regulatory measures are required to ensure a strong financial system when the volume of non-performing loan grows significantly.An increase in the capital requirement policy for rapidly growing banks is also needed because the problem of abnormal loan growth cannot be detected at the current time.At the same time,strong supervision is necessary to avoid the adverse consequences of borrower selection.展开更多
This study analyzes the impact of non-performing loans(NPLs)on bank liquidity creation to investigate the existence of moral hazard problem in Chinese banks.It uses data from 197 listed and unlisted Chinese banks,span...This study analyzes the impact of non-performing loans(NPLs)on bank liquidity creation to investigate the existence of moral hazard problem in Chinese banks.It uses data from 197 listed and unlisted Chinese banks,spanning the period 2005 to 2014.Total liquidity creation by Chinese banks is declining,and NPLs ratio has started to increase following a continuous decline between 2005 and 2012.Using one-step system GMM estimation,fixed and random effect model,and pool data analysis,we find that liquidity creation by Chinese banks does not depend on NPLs ratio,i.e.,we did not find the evidence of moral hazard problem in Chinese banks.We repeated the analysis for small and large banks and the results of these sub-samples reinforced our findings for the aggregate sample.展开更多
This paper explores the macroeconomic determinants of non-performing loans(NPL) in 19 Asian countries(low to high income economies) using the Generalized Method of Moments estimation approach based on the economic dat...This paper explores the macroeconomic determinants of non-performing loans(NPL) in 19 Asian countries(low to high income economies) using the Generalized Method of Moments estimation approach based on the economic data for the period between 1998 and 2015. The categorization of the economies is based on the average gross national income per capita as set by the World Bank.Specifically, the paper aims to evaluate if the determinants of NPL vary with the income levels of the countries. The results indicate that the NPL is strongly influenced by the inflation rate. The effect is,however, negative in the high-income and the middle-income countries and positive in the low-income countries. The GDP per capita has a dynamic negative relationship with the NPL in the high-income and the low-income countries. The remittance has a significant positive association in the high-income and a significant negative association in the low-income countries. Similarly, the unemployment rate has a positive effect on NPL in the middle-income and the low-income countries. With the rise in the official exchange rate, the NPL level increases in the low-income countries. The overall estimation results suggest that the NPL in Asian banking system depend on some key macroeconomic variables,such as unemployment rate, inflation rate, official exchange rate, remittance received and gross domestic product per capita, and these associations vary with the income level of the countries. Therefore,economic level of a country should be carefully considered while formulating credit policy to minimize credit risks in the banking system.展开更多
The purpose of this paper is to come up with factors in loan loss provisioning practices on commercial banks that reflect on collectability of defaulted loans. The need for this research is due to failures in the loan...The purpose of this paper is to come up with factors in loan loss provisioning practices on commercial banks that reflect on collectability of defaulted loans. The need for this research is due to failures in the loan loss provisioning practices which resulted in loan loss provisions (LLP) not reflecting on collectability of the defaulted loans. As a consequence, the banks do not capture their loss expectations and do not continuously reassess their loss expectations as the conditions affecting their borrowers may change. Henceforth, in their financial reporting, the banks do not represent relevantly and faithfully their true underlying credit risks conditions. When the banks do not represent relevantly and faithfully their true underlying risk conditions, they contradict the objectives of useful financial reporting. The results showed that among explanatory variables, bad debt recoveries as a factor in loan loss provisioning practices that reflect on collectability of defaulted loans was rejected. Bad debt recoveries was a biased variable and inconsistent estimator. In context of perceived credit risks as the basis to make credit judgments, an estimate of bad debt recoveries had not fulfilled the criteria. On the other hand, non-performing loans (NPL) as a factor in loan loss provisioning practices was not rejected.展开更多
The purpose of this paper is to examine the time series properties of Australian residential mortgage interest rates, and in doing so, establish whether or not selected home loan rates (product-level monthly home loa...The purpose of this paper is to examine the time series properties of Australian residential mortgage interest rates, and in doing so, establish whether or not selected home loan rates (product-level monthly home loan interest rates for CBA) exhibit the expected cyclical and seasonal variations and whether seasonality, if present, is stochastic or deterministic. In particular, due to a well established presence of cyclicality in financial markets' interest rates and strong correlation between financial markets' interest rates and home loan interest rates, the paper presumes that cyclicality is also to be found in home loan interest rates. Furthermore, the paper tests the hypothesis that home loan interest rates, for selected products, exhibit the three identified ("Spring", "Autumn" and "The end of the Financial Year") season-related interest rate reductions. The paper uses a structural time series modelling approach and product-level home loan interest rates data from one of the biggest banks in Australia, Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA). As expected, the results overall confirm the existence of cyclicality in home loan interest rates. With respect to the seasonality of home loan interest rate, although most of the analysed variables show the presence of statistically significant seasonal factors, the majority of the statistically significant seasonal factors observed cannot be attributed to any of the three considered seasonal effects.展开更多
文摘The main purpose of this study is to ascertain the effect of bank-specific and macroeconomic factors on non-performing loans in systemically and non-systemically important commercial banks in Sri Lanka over 10 year’s period from 2004 to 2013.Also,the study examines the impact of civil war that prevailed in the country for 30 years on the ex-post credit risk of the banking sector.The study employed panel data methodology to investigate the effect of bank-specific and macroeconomic factors on non-performing loans.Panel unit root test has been undertaken in order to test the stationary of the variables.Hausman test and Wald coefficient restriction test were used to select the appropriate model out of pooled,random,and fixed effect.A dummy variable panel regression model adopted to study the war effect,considering 2009 as the structural year.Findings revealed that return on assets as a proxy for bank efficiency has a significant negative influence,while non-interest income as a proxy for income diversity is positively correlated with non-performing loans of systemically important banks.Both real gross domestic products and lending rates were highly significant in both bank types.On contrary with literature,growth in bank branches is negatively correlated.Public banks do not account for higher level of non-performing loans compared to their private counterpart.Finally,it was identified that civil war had an effect on the level of non-performing loans in commercial banks.The research would have benefited if the analysis is carried out among classified types of loans offered by commercial banks.Future researchers should involve in identifying the most significant contributing loan type to the non-performing loans and its determinants.This study is one of the few studies which have investigated the causes of non-performing loans in the commercial banking industry in Sri Lanka.The analysis of civil war and its impact on non-performing loans is the first study of that nature to be conducted in the context.
文摘In the 21st century, while the scope of banking activities has been expanding every day, collecting deposits and providing credit remain as their main and most important functions. They transfer the collected funds thanks to the market confidence they create back to the market in terms of the credits they give. For the organizations operating in the banking sector, crediting is the highest revenue earning source. However, uncollected loans may disrupt the activities of banks and may reduce their effectiveness. Therefore, the control of bank credits has a particular importance in the bank balance sheets. In this study, the relationship between bank balance sheets and non-performing loans (NPL) will be analyzed using Granger causality test and vector autoregressive (VAR) method. This study aims to discuss the impact of NPL on balance sheets and contribute to making correct credit decisions. It also intends to assist to reduce the NPL ratios of banks and minimize the level of negativity in their financial statements.
文摘In this paper, through analyzing the necessity of the securitization of the non-performing loans of China's state-owned banks, the author proposes some tentative ideas for the securitization of the non-performing loans and works out some problems that need to be solved in this process.
文摘Home mortgage loan lending firms are exposed to many business risks.This paper focuses on the mortgage loan borrower risks and proposes a prospective loss analysis approach in regard to loan repayment defaults of borrowers.For this purpose,a predictive modeling is presented in three stages.In the first stage,occurrence of borrower defaults in a mortgage loans portfolio is modeled through the generalized linear models(GLMs)type regressions for which we specify a logistic distribution for default events.The second stage of modeling develops a survival analysis in order to estimate survival probability and hazard rate functions for individual loans.Ultimately,an expectable loss amount model is presented in the third stage as a function of conditional survival probabilities and corresponding hazard rates at loan levels.Throughout all modeling stages,a large and real data set is used as an empirical analysis case by which detailed interpretations and practical implications of the obtained results are stated.
文摘This paper develops a model where two lenders to subprime borrowers compete with the interest rates charged and the severity of loan covenants. The model has a stable equilibrium, which demonstrates how an increase in the number of borrowers or an increase in the cost of meeting covenants will reduce the severity of the covenants required by lenders, and each of these changes will increase the difference in the severity of the loan covenant levels. An increase in the expected losses to the lender from relaxing covenants will increase the severity of loan covenants, and this will also make the levels of severity more dispersed. Additional analysis demonstrates how exogenous shifts affect the interest rates charged by the lenders and their profits
文摘This study is motivated by the lack of direct empirical research on the relationship between intangible assets (IA) and loan interest rates for small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in emerging markets. This study uses a multivariate regression to investigate the effects of 1A on loan interest rates by focusing on SMEs. Using a panel sample of 186 publicly-listed SMEs with 952 annual observations in Taiwan from 2001 to 2006, the empirical findings indicate that an SME's IA does negatively affect loan interest rates. The main contribution of this study lies in its direct testing of whether IA can affect the loan interest rates for SMEs in an emerging market. The finding provides empirical evidence that an SME with greater IA leads to lower interest rates on bank loans, implying that SMEs should strive to invest in IA and enhance their knowledge management for obtaining more benefits of loan interest rates. Furthermore, the findings may provide empirical evidence for SMEs in emerging markets and can be compared with those for firms in industrialized economies.
文摘Background:The dramatic loan growth and changes in the Pakistani banking system in mid-2000s have led to significant research attention on borrowers and lenders.This expansion and diversification in financial sector was driven by structural reforms,political stability and significant economic growth.Against this background,this study investigates the loan growth and risk-taking behavior of the banks during the expansionary periods of lending.Method:This study used dynamic two-step system generalized method of moment’s estimation technique,based on data taken from 32 banks in Pakistan over 2006-2014.Result:Loan growth has a significant effect on bank-specific and macroeconomicspecific variables.Loan growth in the previous year raises non-performing loans and decreases the solvency of banks with a time lag of many years.The driving force behind this phenomenon is weak prudential regulation among competitors,the asymmetric information of the borrowers,and,most importantly,that banks underestimate the risk of lending during credit booms.Conclusion:More regulatory measures are required to ensure a strong financial system when the volume of non-performing loan grows significantly.An increase in the capital requirement policy for rapidly growing banks is also needed because the problem of abnormal loan growth cannot be detected at the current time.At the same time,strong supervision is necessary to avoid the adverse consequences of borrower selection.
文摘This study analyzes the impact of non-performing loans(NPLs)on bank liquidity creation to investigate the existence of moral hazard problem in Chinese banks.It uses data from 197 listed and unlisted Chinese banks,spanning the period 2005 to 2014.Total liquidity creation by Chinese banks is declining,and NPLs ratio has started to increase following a continuous decline between 2005 and 2012.Using one-step system GMM estimation,fixed and random effect model,and pool data analysis,we find that liquidity creation by Chinese banks does not depend on NPLs ratio,i.e.,we did not find the evidence of moral hazard problem in Chinese banks.We repeated the analysis for small and large banks and the results of these sub-samples reinforced our findings for the aggregate sample.
基金Supported by the CAS-TWAS President’s Fellowship 2014 to the First Author from the Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing,China and the World Academy of Sciences,Trieste,Italy
文摘This paper explores the macroeconomic determinants of non-performing loans(NPL) in 19 Asian countries(low to high income economies) using the Generalized Method of Moments estimation approach based on the economic data for the period between 1998 and 2015. The categorization of the economies is based on the average gross national income per capita as set by the World Bank.Specifically, the paper aims to evaluate if the determinants of NPL vary with the income levels of the countries. The results indicate that the NPL is strongly influenced by the inflation rate. The effect is,however, negative in the high-income and the middle-income countries and positive in the low-income countries. The GDP per capita has a dynamic negative relationship with the NPL in the high-income and the low-income countries. The remittance has a significant positive association in the high-income and a significant negative association in the low-income countries. Similarly, the unemployment rate has a positive effect on NPL in the middle-income and the low-income countries. With the rise in the official exchange rate, the NPL level increases in the low-income countries. The overall estimation results suggest that the NPL in Asian banking system depend on some key macroeconomic variables,such as unemployment rate, inflation rate, official exchange rate, remittance received and gross domestic product per capita, and these associations vary with the income level of the countries. Therefore,economic level of a country should be carefully considered while formulating credit policy to minimize credit risks in the banking system.
文摘The purpose of this paper is to come up with factors in loan loss provisioning practices on commercial banks that reflect on collectability of defaulted loans. The need for this research is due to failures in the loan loss provisioning practices which resulted in loan loss provisions (LLP) not reflecting on collectability of the defaulted loans. As a consequence, the banks do not capture their loss expectations and do not continuously reassess their loss expectations as the conditions affecting their borrowers may change. Henceforth, in their financial reporting, the banks do not represent relevantly and faithfully their true underlying credit risks conditions. When the banks do not represent relevantly and faithfully their true underlying risk conditions, they contradict the objectives of useful financial reporting. The results showed that among explanatory variables, bad debt recoveries as a factor in loan loss provisioning practices that reflect on collectability of defaulted loans was rejected. Bad debt recoveries was a biased variable and inconsistent estimator. In context of perceived credit risks as the basis to make credit judgments, an estimate of bad debt recoveries had not fulfilled the criteria. On the other hand, non-performing loans (NPL) as a factor in loan loss provisioning practices was not rejected.
文摘The purpose of this paper is to examine the time series properties of Australian residential mortgage interest rates, and in doing so, establish whether or not selected home loan rates (product-level monthly home loan interest rates for CBA) exhibit the expected cyclical and seasonal variations and whether seasonality, if present, is stochastic or deterministic. In particular, due to a well established presence of cyclicality in financial markets' interest rates and strong correlation between financial markets' interest rates and home loan interest rates, the paper presumes that cyclicality is also to be found in home loan interest rates. Furthermore, the paper tests the hypothesis that home loan interest rates, for selected products, exhibit the three identified ("Spring", "Autumn" and "The end of the Financial Year") season-related interest rate reductions. The paper uses a structural time series modelling approach and product-level home loan interest rates data from one of the biggest banks in Australia, Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA). As expected, the results overall confirm the existence of cyclicality in home loan interest rates. With respect to the seasonality of home loan interest rate, although most of the analysed variables show the presence of statistically significant seasonal factors, the majority of the statistically significant seasonal factors observed cannot be attributed to any of the three considered seasonal effects.