Epidemic threshold influenced by non-pharmaceutical interventions in residential university environments

The control of highly contagious disease spreading in campuses is a critical challenge.In residential universities,students attend classes according to a curriculum schedule,and mainly pack into classrooms,dining halls and dorms.They move from one place to another.To simulate such environments,we propose an agent-based susceptible–infected–recovered model with time-varying heterogeneous contact networks.In close environments,maintaining physical distancing is the most widely recommended and encouraged non-pharmaceutical intervention.It can be easily realized by using larger classrooms,adopting staggered dining hours,decreasing the number of students per dorm and so on.Their real-world influence remains uncertain.With numerical simulations,we obtain epidemic thresholds.The effect of such countermeasures on reducing the number of disease cases is also quantitatively evaluated.

Non-pharmaceutical interventions for COVID-19 reduced the incidence of infectious diseases:a controlled interrupted time-series study

Background Non-pharmaceutical interventions(NPIs)have been implemented worldwide to suppress the spread of coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19).However,few studies have evaluated the effect of NPIs on other infectious diseases and none has assessed the avoided disease burden associated with NPIs.We aimed to assess the effect of NPIs on the incidence of infectious diseases during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and evaluate the health economic benefits related to the reduction in the incidence of infectious diseases.Methods Data on 10 notifiable infectious diseases across China during 2010–2020 were extracted from the China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention.A two-stage controlled interrupted time-series design with a quasi-Poisson regression model was used to examine the impact of NPIs on the incidence of infectious diseases.The analysis was first performed at the provincial-level administrative divisions(PLADs)level in China,then the PLAD-specific estimates were pooled using a random-effect meta-analysis.Results A total of 61,393,737 cases of 10 infectious diseases were identified.The implementation of NPIs was associated with 5.13 million(95%confidence interval[CI]3.45‒7.42)avoided cases and USD 1.77 billion(95%CI 1.18‒2.57)avoided hospital expenditures in 2020.There were 4.52 million(95%CI 3.00‒6.63)avoided cases for children and adolescents,corresponding to 88.2%of total avoided cases.The top leading cause of avoided burden attributable to NPIs was influenza[avoided percentage(AP):89.3%;95%CI 84.5‒92.6].Socioeconomic status and population density were effect modifiers.Conclusions NPIs for COVID-19 could effectively control the prevalence of infectious diseases,with patterns of risk varying by socioeconomic status.These findings have important implications for informing targeted strategies to prevent infectious diseases.

Modelling the effect of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 transmission from mobility maps

The world has faced the COVID-19 pandemic for over two years now,and it is time to revisit the lessons learned from lockdown measures for theoretical and practical epidemiological improvements.The interlink between these measures and the resulting change in mobility(a predictor of the disease transmission contact rate)is uncertain.We thus propose a new method for assessing the efficacy of various non-pharmaceutical interventions(NPI)and examine the aptness of incorporating mobility data for epidemiological modelling.Facebook mobility maps for the United Arab Emirates are used as input datasets from the first infection in the country to mid-Oct 2020.Dataset was limited to the pre-vaccination period as this paper focuses on assessing the different NPIs at an early epidemic stage when no vaccines are available and NPIs are the only way to reduce the reproduction number(R_(0)).We developed a travel network density parameterβ_(t)to provide an estimate of NPI impact on mobility patterns.Given the infection-fatality ratio and time lag(onset-to-death),a Bayesian probabilistic model is adapted to calculate the change in epidemic development withβt.Results showed that the change inβ_(t)clearly impacted R_(0).The three lockdowns strongly affected the growth of transmission rate and collectively reduced R_(0)by 78%before the restrictions were eased.The model forecasted daily infections and deaths by 2%and 3%fractional errors.It also projected what-if scenarios for different implementation protocols of each NPI.The developed model can be applied to identify the most efficient NPIs for confronting new COVID-19 waves and the spread of variants,as well as for future pandemics.

How completely are randomized controlled trials of non-pharmacological interventions following concussion reported? A systematic review

Purpose:The study aimed to examine the reporting completeness of randomized controlled trials(RCTs)of non-pharmacological interventions following concussion.Methods:We searched MEDLINE,Embase,PsycInfo,CINAHL,and Web of Science up to May 2022.Two reviewers independently screened studies and assessed reporting completeness using the Template for Intervention Description and Replication(TIDieR),Consensus on Exercise Reporting Template(CERT),and international Consensus on Therapeutic Exercise aNd Training(i-CONTENT)checklists.Additional information was sought my study authors where reporting was incomplete.Risk of bias(ROB)was assessed with the Cochrane ROB-2 Tool.RCTs examining non-pharmacological interventions following concussion.Results:We included 89 RCTs(n=53 high ROB)examining 11 different interventions for concussion:sub-symptom threshold aerobic exercise,cervicovestibular therapy,physical/cognitive rest,vision therapy,education,psychotherapy,hyperbaric oxygen therapy,transcranial magnetic stimulation,blue light therapy,osteopathic manipulation,and head/neck cooling.Median scores were:TIDieR 9/12(75%;interquartile range(IQR)=5;range:5-12),CERT 17/19(89%;IQR=2;range:10-19),and i-CONTENT 6/7(86%;IQR=1;range:5-7).Percentage of studies completely reporting all items was TIDieR 35%(31/89),CERT 24%(5/21),and i-CONTENT 10%(2/21).Studies were more completely reported after publication of TIDieR(t_(87)=2.08;p=0.04)and CERT(t_(19)=2.72;p=0.01).Reporting completeness was not strongly associated with journal impact factor(TIDieR:rs=0.27;p=0.01;CERT:r_(s)=-0.44;p=0.06;i-CONTENT:r_(s)=-0.17;p=0.48)or ROB(TIDieR:rs=0.11;p=0.31;CERT:rs=0.04;p=0.86;i-CONTENT:rs=0.12;p=0.60).Conclusion:RCTs of non-pharmacological interventions following concussion demonstrate moderate to good reporting completeness,but are often missing key components,particularly modifications,motivational strategies,and qualified supervisor.Reporting completeness improved after TIDieR and CERT publication,but publication in highly cited journals and low ROB do not guarantee reporting completeness.

A scoping review of methodologies for applying artificial intelligence to physical activity interventions

Purpose This scoping review aimed to offer researchers and practitioners an understanding of artificial intelligence(AI)applications in physical activity(PA)interventions;introduce them to prevalent machine learning(ML),deep learning(DL),and reinforcement learning(RL)algorithms;and encourage the adoption of AI methodologies.Methods A scoping review was performed in PubMed,Web of Science,Cochrane Library,and EBSCO focusing on AI applications for promoting PA or predicting related behavioral or health outcomes.AI methodologies were summarized and categorized to identify synergies,patterns,and trends informing future research.Additionally,a concise primer on predominant AI methodologies within the realm of PA was provided to bolster understanding and broader application.Results The review included 24 studies that met the predetermined eligibility criteria.AI models were found effective in detecting significant patterns of PA behavior and associations between specific factors and intervention outcomes.Most studies comparing AI models to traditional statistical approaches reported higher prediction accuracy for AI models on test data.Comparisons of different AI models yielded mixed results,likely due to model performance being highly dependent on the dataset and task.An increasing trend of adopting state-of-the-art DL and RL models over standard ML was observed,addressing complex human–machine communication,behavior modification,and decision-making tasks.Six key areas for future AI adoption in PA interventions emerged:personalized PA interventions,real-time monitoring and adaptation,integration of multimodal data sources,evaluation of intervention effectiveness,expanding access to PA interventions,and predicting and preventing injuries.Conclusion The scoping review highlights the potential of AI methodologies for advancing PA interventions.As the field progresses,staying informed and exploring emerging AI-driven strategies is essential for achieving significant improvements in PA interventions and fostering overall well-being.

Establishment and validation of an adherence prediction system for lifestyle interventions in non-alcoholic fatty liver disease

BACKGROUND Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease(NAFLD)is the most common liver disease worldwide,affecting about 1/4th of the global population and causing a huge global economic burden.To date,no drugs have been approved for the treatment of NAFLD,making the correction of unhealthy lifestyles the principle method of treatment.Identifying patients with poor adherence to lifestyle correction and attempting to improve their adherence are therefore very important.AIM To develop and validate a scale that can rapidly assess the adherence of patients with NAFLD to lifestyle interventions.METHODS The Exercise and Diet Adherence Scale(EDAS)was designed based on com-pilation using the Delphi method,and its reliability was subsequently evaluated.Demographic and laboratory indicators were measured,and patients completed the EDAS questionnaire at baseline and after 6 months.The efficacy of the EDAS was evaluated in the initial cohort.Subsequently,the efficacy of the EDAS was internally verified in a validation cohort.RESULTS The EDAS consisted of 33 items in six dimensions,with a total of 165 points.Total EDAS score correlated significantly with daily number of exercise and daily reduction in calorie intake(P<0.05 each),but not with overall weight loss.A total score of 116 was excellent in predicting adherence to daily reduction in calorie intake(>500 kacl/d),(sensitivity/specificity was 100.0%/75.8%),while patients score below 97 could nearly rule out the possibility of daily exercise(sensitivity/specificity was 89.5%/44.4%).Total EDAS scores≥116,97-115,and<97 points were indicative of good,average,and poor adherence,respectively,to diet and exercise recommendations.CONCLUSION The EDAS can reliably assess the adherence of patients with NAFLD to lifestyle interventions and have clinical application in this population.

Exploring the Contribution of Pharmacists in Addressing the Opioid Crisis through Naloxone Prescriptions and Pharmacist-Led Interventions

The opioid epidemic in the United States continues to take the lives of many individuals, with overdoses continuing to rise every year. Naloxone is an opioid antagonist that is efficacious in temporarily reversing opioid overdoses. Pharmacists play an important role in the accessibility and education of naloxone in both the community and health system settings. Recent efforts, such as co-dispensing naloxone with opioid prescriptions, naloxone training programs, and approval of naloxone to be over-the-counter, have been implemented in hopes to better control the opioid epidemic. Despite the efforts to make naloxone more accessible, there are still some barriers to overcome such as lack of training, cost, stigma, and patient refusal. This review aims to explore the contributions pharmacists have made thus far and define the barriers that still have to be resolved.

Psychological interventions for depression in children and adolescents:A bibliometric analysis

BACKGROUND Depression has gradually become a common psychological disorder among children and adolescents.Depression in children and adolescents affects their physical and mental development.Psychotherapy is considered to be one of the main treatment options for depressed children and adolescents.However,our understanding of the global performance and progress of psychological interventions for depression in children and adolescents(PIDCA)research is limited.AIM To identify collaborative research networks in this field and explore the current research status and hotspots through bibliometrics.METHODS Articles and reviews related to PIDCA from January 2010 to April 2023 were identified from the Web of Science Core Collection database.The Charticulator website,CiteSpace and VOSviewer software were used to visualize the trends in publications and citations,the collaborative research networks(countries,institutions,and authors),and the current research status and hotspots.RESULTS Until April 16,2023,1482 publications were identified.The number of documents published each year and citations had increased rapidly in this field.The United States had the highest productivity in this field.The most prolific institution was the University of London.Pim Cuijpers was the most prolific author.In the context of research related to PIDCA,both reference co-citation analysis and keywords co-occurrence analysis identified 10 research hotspots,including thirdwave cognitive behavior therapy,short-term psychoanalytic psychotherapy,cognitive behavioral analysis system of psychotherapy,family element in psychotherapy,modular treatment,mobile-health,emotion-regulation-based transdiagnostic intervention program,dementia risk in later life,predictors of the efficacy of psychological intervention,and risks of psychological intervention.CONCLUSION This bibliometric study provides a comprehensive overview of PIDCA from 2010 to present.Psychological intervention characterized as psychological-process-focused,short,family-involved,modular,internet-based,emotionregulation-based,and personalized may benefit more young people.

Promoting Sickle Cell Trait Awareness and Education: A Typology of Interventions in the United States to Inform Ongoing Efforts to Patients and Providers

Research Background: Sickle cell trait has no treatment or cure and predominantly affects people who are Black, but can affect anyone of any race or ethnicity. While commonly incorrectly considered benign by providers and the public, people with a sickle cell trait experience life-threatening outcomes that are exacerbated by extreme conditions. There is a severe lack of awareness and understanding of sickle cell trait and the associated health complications among sickle cell trait carriers and healthcare providers. Purpose/Aim: Interventions that aim to improve awareness of sickle cell trait differ in approaches and are not well documented in the literature. This typology aims to highlight current efforts to inform targeted interventions that raise awareness through consistent messaging, educate people and providers on sickle cell trait and the related health complications, and support the design and implementation of comprehensive sickle cell trait awareness initiatives. Methods: We conducted a scoping review of United States-based sickle cell trait interventions and performed a content analysis to identify the categories and characteristics of these efforts. We then organized the results into a typology according to established protocols. Results: Among 164 interventions, twenty-five (15%) met the typology inclusion criteria described above and were grouped into categories: Seven of twenty-five interventions were Educational Interventions (28%), three of twenty-five interventions (12%) were Combined Screening and Educational-Based Interventions, eight of twenty-five interventions (32%) were Policy and Guideline-Based Intervention, and six of twenty-five interventions (24%) were Sickle Cell Trait Organization-Led Interventions. Conclusions: There is a lack of consistency in messaging across interventions whether delivered by credible healthcare institutions or national organizations, which can result in lack of education and awareness and confusion around sickle cell trait. Categorizing interventions through a typology allows clarity and informs consistency in messaging, which should be at the forefront of future sickle cell trait efforts.

Psychosocial interventions for infertile couples:A scoping review

Objective:To bring out current evidence regarding psycho-social interventions for infertility care,and identify the best practices in clinical care.Methods:An in-depth literature review on infertility care intervention was conducted using data from multiple databases:PubMed,EMBASE,Google Scholar,and PsycINFO.The relevant articles selected were between 2008 and 2022.Results:A literature search turned up 1798 citations,of which 25 studies were included after rigorous analysis.Various intervention categories have been constantly utilised to provide support and promote mental health,of which acceptance and commitment therapy(ACT)and cognitive behaviour therapy(CBT)were used most frequently.The interventions exhibited diversity in both content and composition,and addressed a wide range of issues.Conclusions:The review emphasizes that psycho-social interventions have a positive effect on psychological issues,relationships,and pregnancies among couples and can be incorporated into fertility-care practices.

Assessing Community Health Interventions in Reducing Infant and Child Mortality in the Southeastern Benin

Background: To reduce infant and child mortality in Benin, a package of high-impact interventions per healthcare level was implemented in 2009. This study aimed to assess the quality of community-based health interventions in reducing infant and child mortality within the municipality of Pobè in southeastern Benin. Methods: This was a cross-sectional evaluative study carried out in November 2021 focused on children aged 0 - 59 months, their mothers, health workers, community facilitators, community health workers and the Town Hall health focal point. Mothers and their children were targeted by cluster sampling, and exhaustive selection was used to recruit all other participants. Predetermined scores based on rating criteria were used to assess the quality of community health interventions using the “input, process and outcome” of Donabedian approach. Results: Over 300 mother-child couples, 46 community health workers, 7 health agents, 1 community facilitator and 1 health focal point from Pobè town hall were surveyed. Intervention quality was judged as “average”, with a score of 73.80%. The “inputs” and “outcomes” components were the weakest links. Conclusion: Improving access to the inputs needed by community health workers can enhance the quality of PIHI interventions.

Non-pharmacological interventions for diabetic peripheral neuropathy:Are we winning the battle?

Despite the advent of relatively reliable modalities of diagnosing diabetic peripheral neuropathy(DPN),such as nerve conduction studies,there is still a knowledge gap about the pathophysiology,and thus limited available in-terventions for symptom control and curtailing disease progression.The pharma-cologic aspect of management is mainly centred on pain control,however,there are several important aspects of DPN such as loss of vibration sense,pressure sense,and proprioception which are associated with risks to lower limb health,which pharmacotherapy does not address.Furthermore,published evidence suggests non-pharmacologic interventions such as glycaemic control through dietary modification and exercise need to be combined with other measures such as psychotherapy,to reach a desired,however modest effect.Acupuncture is emerging as an important treatment modality for several chronic medical conditions including neuropathic and other pain syndromes.In their study published in the World Journal of Diabetes on the potential of acupuncture to reduce DPN symptoms and enhance nerve conduction parameters,Hoerder et al have been able to demonstrate that acupuncture improves sensory function and that this effect is likely sustained two months after treatment cessation.Although previous studies also support these findings,larger multi-center randomized control trials including a sham-controlled arm accounting for a placebo effect are required.Overall,given the satisfactory safety profile and the positive results found in these studies,it is likely that acupuncture may become an important aspect of the repertoire of effective DPN management.

Validation of adherence prediction system for lifestyle interventions in nonalcoholic fatty liver disease

This editorial delves into the research article by Zeng et al published in the latest issue of World Journal of Gastroenterology.The manuscript contributes significantly to addressing the global health issue of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease(NAFLD)by introducing and validating the Exercise and Diet Adherence Scale(EDAS).The article effectively conveys the importance of the study,highlighting the prevalence of NAFLD,the lack of approved drugs for its treatment,and the crucial role of lifestyle correction.The use of the Delphi method for scale development and the subsequent evaluation of its reliability add scientific rigor to the methodology.The results demonstrate that the scale is correlated with key lifestyle indicators,which makes it a promising tool for assessing patient adherence to interventions.The identification of specific score thresholds for predicting adherence to daily calorie intake and exercise adds practical value to the scale.The differentiation among scores indicative of good,average,and poor adherence enhances its clinical applicability.In conclusion,the manuscript introduces EDAS,a valuable instrument that can contribute substantially to the field of NAFLD research and clinical practice.

Pharmacological interventions targeting the microcirculation following traumatic spinal cord injury

Traumatic spinal cord injury is a devastating disorder chara cterized by sensory,motor,and autonomic dysfunction that seve rely compromises an individual's ability to perform activities of daily living.These adve rse outcomes are closely related to the complex mechanism of spinal cord injury,the limited regenerative capacity of central neurons,and the inhibitory environment fo rmed by traumatic injury.Disruption to the microcirculation is an important pathophysiological mechanism of spinal cord injury.A number of therapeutic agents have been shown to improve the injury environment,mitigate secondary damage,and/or promote regeneration and repair.Among them,the spinal cord microcirculation has become an important target for the treatment of spinal cord injury.Drug inte rventions targeting the microcirculation can improve the microenvironment and promote recovery following spinal cord injury.These drugs target the structure and function of the spinal cord microcirculation and are essential for maintaining the normal function of spinal neuro ns,axons,and glial cells.This review discusses the pathophysiological role of spinal cord microcirculation in spinal cord injury,including its structure and histopathological changes.Further,it summarizes the progress of drug therapies targeting the spinal cord mic rocirc ulation after spinal cord injury.

Optimization of nursing interventions for postoperative mental status recovery in patients with cerebral hemorrhage

BACKGROUND Hypertensive cerebral hemorrhage(HCH),the most common chronic diseases,has become a topic of global public health discussions.AIM To investigate the role of rehabilitative nursing interventions in optimizing the postoperative mental status recovery phase and to provide clinical value for future rehabilitation of patients with HCH.METHODS This randomized controlled study included 120 patients with cerebral HCH who were contained to our neurosurgery department between May 2021–May 2023 as the participants.The participants have randomly sampled and grouped into the observation and control groups.The observation group received the rehabilitation nursing model,whereas the control group have given conventional nursing.The conscious state of the patients was assessed at 7,14,21,and 30 d postoperatively.After one month of care,sleep quality,anxiety,and depression were compared between the two groups.Patient and family satisfaction were assessed using a nursing care model.RESULTS The results showed that the state of consciousness scores of the patients in both groups significantly increased(P<0.05)after surgical treatment.From the 14th day onwards,differences in the state of consciousness scores between the two groups of patients began to appear(P<0.05).After one month of care,the sleep quality,anxiety state,and depression state of patients were significantly better in the observation group than in the control group(P<0.05).Satisfaction with nursing care was higher in the observation group than in the control group(P<0.05).CONCLUSION The rehabilitation nursing model has a more complete system compared to conventional nursing,which can effectively improve the postoperative quality of life of patients with cerebral hemorrhage and improve the efficiency of mental state recovery;however,further analysis and research are needed to provide more scientific evidence.

Effect of psychological nursing interventions on effectiveness and quality of life in schizophrenia patients receiving modified electroconvulsive therapy

BACKGROUND Schizophrenia is a common and severe mental disorder characterized by severe thought disturbances,hallucinations,delusions,and emotional instability.For some patients,conventional treatment methods may not effectively alleviate symptoms,necessitating the use of alternative therapeutic approaches.Modified electroconvulsive therapy(MECT)is an effective treatment modality for schizophrenia,inducing anti-depressive and antipsychotic effects through the stimulation of brain electrical activity.AIM To explore the impact of psychological nursing intervention(PNI)before and after MECT on the efficacy and quality of life of patients with schizophrenia.METHODS Eighty patients with schizophrenia who received MECT treatment from 2021 to 2023 were randomly divided into two groups:The intervention group(n=40)and the control group(n=40).The intervention group received PNI before and after MECT,while the control group received routine nursing care.The efficacy of MECT was evaluated by the Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale(PANSS)and the Clinical Global Impression Scale(CGI)before and after the treatment.The quality of life was assessed by the Short Form 36 Health Survey(SF-36)after the treatment.RESUITS The intervention group had significantly lower scores of PANSS and CGI than the control group after the treatment(P<0.05).The intervention group also had significantly higher scores of SF-36 than the control group in all domains except physical functioning(P<0.05).CONCLUSION PNI before and after MECT can improve the efficacy and quality of life of patients with schizophrenia.It is suggested that nurses should provide individualized and comprehensive psychological care for patients undergoing MECT to enhance their recovery and well-being.

Analysis of the Clinical Interventions for Falls in Elderly Patients in the Community From 2002 To 2022:A Bibliometric Analysis

Objective:To analyze and provide a comprehensive overview of the knowledge structure and research hotspots of clinical interventions for falls in elderly patients in the community.Methods:The search for publications related to clinical interventions for falls in elderly patients in the community from 2002 to 2022 was conducted on the Web of Science Core Collection(WoSCC)database.VOSviewers,CiteSpace,and the R package“bibliometrix”were used to conduct this bibliometric analysis.Results:2091 articles from 70 countries,primarily the United States and Australia,were included.The number of publications related to clinical interventions for falls in elderly patients is increasing yearly.The main research institutions in this field were the University of Sydney,Harvard University,and the University of California.BioMed Central(BMC)Geriatrics was the most popular journal in this field and Journals of the American Geriatrics Society was the most co-cited journal.These publications came from 8984 authors among which author Lord SR had published the most papers and author Tinetti Me had the most co-citations.The main keywords in this research field were“balance,”“exercise,”and“risk factor.”Conclusion:This was the first bibliometric study that comprehensively summarized the research hot spots and development of clinical interventions for falls in elderly patients in the community.This paper aims to provide a reference for scholars and researchers in this particular field.

Study on the Effect of Behavioral Interventions Based on the Theory of“Knowledge,Attitude,Practice”on Tuberculosis Cognitive Level of Close Contacts

Objective:Based on the theory of“Knowledge,Attitude,Practice,”health education was carried out for close contact with tuberculosis(TB)at a university in Beijing,and its impact on the students’awareness of TB was studied.This study could provide a reference for effective health education interventions among close contacts of TB in undergraduates.Methods:102 undergraduates who had close contact with one confirmed case of pulmonary TB in April 2021 at a university were randomly divided into a control group and an intervention group.The intervention group was given the“Knowledge,Attitude,Practice”health education intervention by professionally trained doctors,and were asked to complete a self-designed TB-related questionnaire before and after the intervention.Both groups performed the Tuberculin Skin Test(TST)and chest X-ray(CR)examination.Results:The rate of the TST test was 18.6%,and CR examination showed 0 cases of pulmonary TB.The survey results showed that the TB awareness rate(96.1%,49/51)in the intervention group was significantly higher than that of the control group(51.0%,26/51),and the differences in awareness rate between the two groups were statistically significant(P<0.05).Regarding the attitude/skills toward TB,the prevalence rate of tuberculosis-related attitude/behavior in the intervention group(94.1%,47/51)was significantly higher than that of the control group(60.8%,31/51),and the differences between the two groups were statistically significant(P<0.05).Conclusion:Both self-controlled and parallel-controlled studies showed that the health education intervention of“Knowledge,Attitude,Practice”improved the awareness of TB among close contacts of TB in undergraduates.

Effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions against local transmission of COVID-19: An individual-based modelling study

The outbreak of the novel coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19),caused by the novel severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2(SARS-CoV-2),has caused global transmission,and been spread all over the world.For those regions that are currently free of infected cases,it is an urgent issue to prevent and control the local outbreak of COVID-19 when there are sporadic cases.To evaluate the effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions against local transmission of COVID-19,and to forecast the epidemic dynamics after local outbreak of diseases under different control measures,we developed an individual-based model(IBM)to simulate the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 from a microscopic perspective of individual-to-individual contacts to heterogenous among individuals.Based on the model,we simulated the effects of different levels of non-pharmaceutical interventions in controlling disease transmission after the appearance of sporadic cases.Simulations shown that isolation of infected cases and quarantine of close contacts alone would not eliminate the local transmission of COVID-19,and there is a risk of a second wave epidemics.Quarantine the second-layer close contacts can obviously reduce the size of outbreak.Moreover,to effectively eliminate the daily new infections in a short time,it is necessary to reduce the individual-to-individual contacts.IBM provides a numerical representation for the local transmission of infectious diseases,and extends the compartmental models to include individual heterogeneity and the close contacts network.Our study suggests that combinations of self-isolation,quarantine of close contacts,and social distancing would be necessary to block the local transmission of COVID-19.

Re-examination of the impact of some non-pharmaceutical interventions and media coverage on the COVID-19 outbreak in Wuhan

In this paper,based on the classic Kermack-McKendrick SIR model,we propose an ordinary differential equation model to re-examine the COVID-19 epidemics in Wuhan where this disease initially broke out.The focus is on the impact of all those major nonpharmaceutical interventions(NPIs)implemented by the local public healthy authorities and government during the epidemics.We use the data publicly available and the nonlinear least-squares solver lsqnonlin built in MATLAB to estimate the model parameters.Then we explore the impact of those NPIs,particularly the timings of these interventions,on the epidemics.The results can help people review the responses to the outbreak of the COVID-19 inWuhan,while the proposed model also offers a framework for studying epidemics of COVID-19 and/or other similar diseases in other places,and accordingly helping people better prepare for possible future outbreaks of similar diseases.