A non-probabilistic reliability topology optimization method based on aggregation function and matrix multiplication considering buckling response constraints

A non-probabilistic reliability topology optimization method is proposed based on the aggregation function and matrix multiplication.The expression of the geometric stiffness matrix is derived,the finite element linear buckling analysis is conducted,and the sensitivity solution of the linear buckling factor is achieved.For a specific problem in linear buckling topology optimization,a Heaviside projection function based on the exponential smooth growth is developed to eliminate the gray cells.The aggregation function method is used to consider the high-order eigenvalues,so as to obtain continuous sensitivity information and refined structural design.With cyclic matrix programming,a fast topology optimization method that can be used to efficiently obtain the unit assembly and sensitivity solution is conducted.To maximize the buckling load,under the constraint of the given buckling load,two types of topological optimization columns are constructed.The variable density method is used to achieve the topology optimization solution along with the moving asymptote optimization algorithm.The vertex method and the matching point method are used to carry out an uncertainty propagation analysis,and the non-probability reliability topology optimization method considering buckling responses is developed based on the transformation of non-probability reliability indices based on the characteristic distance.Finally,the differences in the structural topology optimization under different reliability degrees are illustrated by examples.

On the Application of Mixed Models of Probability and Convex Set for Time-Variant Reliability Analysis

In time-variant reliability problems,there are a lot of uncertain variables from different sources.Therefore,it is important to consider these uncertainties in engineering.In addition,time-variant reliability problems typically involve a complexmultilevel nested optimization problem,which can result in an enormous amount of computation.To this end,this paper studies the time-variant reliability evaluation of structures with stochastic and bounded uncertainties using a mixed probability and convex set model.In this method,the stochastic process of a limit-state function with mixed uncertain parameters is first discretized and then converted into a timeindependent reliability problem.Further,to solve the double nested optimization problem in hybrid reliability calculation,an efficient iterative scheme is designed in standard uncertainty space to determine the most probable point(MPP).The limit state function is linearized at these points,and an innovative random variable is defined to solve the equivalent static reliability analysis model.The effectiveness of the proposed method is verified by two benchmark numerical examples and a practical engineering problem.

A Bayesian Updating Method for Non-Probabilistic Reliability Assessment of Structures with Performance Test Data

For structures that only the predicted bounds of uncertainties are available,this study proposes a Bayesianmethod to logically evaluate the nonprobabilistic reliability of structures based on multi-ellipsoid convex model and performance test data.According to the given interval ranges of uncertainties,we determine the initial characteristic parameters of a multi-ellipsoid convex set.Moreover,to update the plausibility of characteristic parameters,a Bayesian network for the information fusion of prior uncertainty knowledge and subsequent performance test data is constructed.Then,an updated multi-ellipsoid set with the maximum likelihood of the performance test data can be achieved.The credible non-probabilistic reliability index is calculated based on the Kriging-based surrogate model of the performance function.Several numerical examples are presented to validate the proposed Bayesian updating method.

MODIFIED SCHEME BASED ON SEMI-ANALYTIC APPROACH FOR COMPUTING NON-PROBABILISTIC RELIABILITY INDEX

A new computation scheme proposed to tackle commensurate problems is devel- oped by modifying the semi-analytic approach for minimizing computational complexity. Using the proposed scheme, the limit state equations, usually referred to as the failure surface, are obtained from transformation of an interval variable to a normalized one. In order to minimize the computational cost, two algorithms for optimizing the calculation steps have been proposed. The monotonicity of the objective function can be determined from narrowing the scope of interval variables in normalized infinite space by incorporating the algorithms into the computational scheme. Two examples are used to illustrate the operation and computational efficiency of the approach. The results of these examples show that the proposed algorithms can greatly reduce the computation complexity without sacrificing the computational accuracy. The advantage of the proposed scheme can be even more efficient for analyzing sophistic structures.

A Comprehensive Model for Structural Non-Probabilistic Reliability and the Key Algorithms

It is very difficult to know the exact boundaries of the variable domain for problems with small sample size,and the traditional convex set model is no longer applicable.In view of this,a novel reliability model was proposed on the basis of the fuzzy convex set(FCS)model.This new reliability model can account for different relations between the structural failure region and variable domain.Key computational algorithms were studied in detail.First,the optimization strategy for robust reliability is improved.Second,Monte Carlo algorithms(i.e.,uniform sampling method)for hyper-ellipsoidal convex sets were studied in detail,and errors in previous reports were corrected.Finally,the Gauss-Legendre integral algorithm was used for calculation of the integral reliability index.Three numerical examples are presented here to illustrate the rationality and feasibility of the proposed model and its corresponding algorithms.

Non-probabilistic fuzzy reliability analysis of pile foundation stability by interval theory

Randomness and fuzziness are among the attributes of the influential factors for stability assessment of pile foundation. According to these two characteristics, the triangular fuzzy number analysis approach was introduced to determine the probability-distributed function of mechanical parameters. Then the functional function of reliability analysis was constructed based on the study of bearing mechanism of pile foundation, and the way to calculate interval values of the functional function was developed by using improved interval-truncation approach and operation rules of interval numbers. Afterwards, the non-probabilistic fuzzy reliability analysis method was applied to assessing the pile foundation, from which a method was presented for non- probabilistic fuzzy reliability analysis of pile foundation stability by interval theory. Finally, the probability distribution curve of non- probabilistic fuzzy reliability indexes of practical pile foundation was concluded. Its failure possibility is 0.91%, which shows that the pile foundation is stable and reliable.

Application of non-probabilistic reliability on aerostat capsule

Aerostat capsule is small sample data,so designing reliability is very difficult to be obtained accurately by conventional probabilistic reliability method. Based on the interval non-probabilistic reliability theory,an instability mathematics model of envelope structure is studied,and the calculation formula of interval reliability index is put forward. Through the mechanical experiments of three capsule structures,the experimental results of the interval reliability are obtained. By comparing the theoretical and measured values,it is found that the theoretical reliability index is more conservative. Non-probabilistic reliability method can reflect the reliability degree of the capsule body under different loading conditions,which can provide some guidance for engineering application.

Time-Variant Reliability-Based Multi-Objective Fuzzy Design Optimization for Anti-Roll Torsion Bar of EMU

Although various types of anti-roll torsion bars have been developed to inhibit excessive roll angle of the electric multiple unit(EMU)car body,it is critical to ensure the reliability of structural design due to the complexity of the problems involving time and uncertainties.To address this issue,amulti-objective fuzzy design optimization model is constructed considering time-variant stiffness and strength reliability constraints for the anti-roll torsion bar.A hybrid optimization strategy combining the design of experiment(DoE)sampling and non-linear programming by quadratic lagrangian(NLPQL)is presented to deal with the design optimization model.To characterize the effect of time on the structural performance of the torsion bar,the continuous-time model combined with Ito lemma is proposed to establish the time-variant stiffness and strength reliability constraints.Fuzzy mathematics is employed to conduct uncertainty quantification for the design parameters of the torsion bar.A physical programming approach is used to improve the designer’s preference and to make the optimization results more consistent with engineering practices.Moreover,the effectiveness of the proposed method has been validated by comparing with current methods in a practical engineering case.

Time-variant reliability analysis of three-dimensional slopes based on Support Vector Machine method

In the reliability analysis of slope, the performance functions derived from the most available stability analysis procedures of slopes are usually implicit and cannot be solved by first-order second-moment approach. A new reliability analysis approach was presented based on three-dimensional Morgenstem-Price method to investigate three-dimensional effect of landslide in stability analyses. To obtain the reliability index, Support Vector Machine （SVM） was applied to approximate the performance function. The time-consuming of this approach is only 0.028% of that using Monte-Carlo method at the same computation accuracy. Also, the influence of time effect of shearing strength parameters of slope soils on the long-term reliability of three-dimensional slopes was investigated by this new approach. It is found that the reliability index of the slope would decrease by 52.54% and the failure probability would increase from 0.000 705% to 1.966%. In the end, the impact of variation coefficients of c andfon reliability index of slopes was taken into discussion and the changing trend was observed.

Time-Variant Reliability Analysis of FPSO Hull Girder Considering Corrosion Based on Statistics

FPSO is a kind of important exploitation platform used in ocean oil and gas industry, which has the unique character of mooring at outsea for a long time. Since it can not be inspected and maintained thoronghly at dock like other kinds of ships, the reliability of FPSO hull girder during the whole service should be focused. Based on latest corrosion database and rational corrosion model, the ultimate strength of one FPSO is calculated under the conditions of slight, moderate and severe corrosion. The results not only provide the reliabihty under different corrosion conditions, but also do well for further inspection and maintenance research. The results provide necessary foundation for deciding inspection intervals and maintenance measure, which has practical sense to improve the general safety level of ocean engineering.

RELIABILITY ANALYSIS FOR A REPAIRABLE PARALLEL SYSTEM WITH TIME-VARYING FAILURE RATES

To solve a real problem:how to calculate the reliability of a system with time-varying failure rates in industry systems,this paper studies a model for the load-sharing parallel system with time-varying failure rates,and obtains calculating formulas of reliability and availability of the system by solving differential equations.In this paper,the failure rates are expressed in polynomial configuration.The constant,linear and Weibull failure rate are in their special form.The polynomial failure rates provide flexibility in modeling the practical time-varying failure rates.

Time-varying Reliability Analysis of Long-span Continuous Rigid Frame bridge under Cantilever Construction Stage based on the Monitored Strain Data

In general,the material properties,loads,resistance of the prestressed concrete continuous rigid frame bridge in different construction stages are time-varying.So,it is essential to monitor the internal force state when the bridge is in construction.Among them,how to assess the safety is one of the challenges.As the continuous monitoring over a long-term period can increase the reliability of the assessment,so,based on a large number of monitored strain data collected from the structural health monitoring system(SHMS)during construction,a calculation method of the punctiform time-varying reliability is proposed in this paper to evaluate the stress state of this type bridge in cantilever construction stage by using the basic reliability theory.At the same time,the optimal stress distribution function in the bridge mid-span base plate is determined when the bridge is closed.This method can provide basis and direction for the internal force control of this type bridge in construction process.So,it can reduce the bridge safety and quality accidents in construction stages.

Combination of structural reliability and interval analysis

In engineering applications, probabilistic reliability theory appears to be presently the most important method, however, in many cases precise probabilistic reliability theory cannot be considered as adequate and credible model of the real state of actual affairs. In this paper, we developed a hybrid of probabilistic and non-probabilistic reliability theory, which describes the structural uncertain parameters as interval variables when statistical data are found insufficient. By using the interval analysis, a new method for calculating the interval of the structural reliability as well as the reliability index is introduced in this paper, and the traditional probabilistic theory is incorporated with the interval analysis. Moreover, the new method preserves the useful part of the traditional probabilistic reliability theory, but removes the restriction of its strict requirement on data acquisition. Example is presented to demonstrate the feasibility and validity of the proposed theory.

Fatigue reliability based on residual strength model with hybrid uncertain parameters

The aim of this paper is to evaluate the fatigue reliability with hybrid uncertain parameters based on a residual strength model. By solving the non-probabilistic setbased reliability problem and analyzing the reliability with randomness, the fatigue reliability with hybrid parameters can be obtained. The presented hybrid model can adequately consider all uncertainties affecting the fatigue reliability with hybrid uncertain parameters. A comparison among the presented hybrid model, non-probabilistic set-theoretic model and the conventional random model is made through two typical numerical examples. The results show that the presented hybrid model, which can ensure structural security, is effective and practical.

Maintenance Management Research of a Large-span Continuous Rigid Frame Bridge Based on Reliability Assessment by Using Strain Monitored Data

When the bridge components needing maintenance are the world problem at present,and the health monitoring system is considered to be a very help­ful tool for solving this problem.In this paper,a large number of strain data acquired from the structural health monitoring system(SHMS)installed on a continuous rigid frame bridge are adopted to do reliability assessment.Firstly,a calculation method of punctiform time-dependent reliability is proposed based on the basic reliability theory,and introduced how to cal­culate reliability of the bridge by using the stress data transformed from the strain data.Secondly,combined with“Three Sigma”principle and the basic pressure safety reserve requirement,the critical load effects distribu­tion function of the bridge is defined,and then the maintenance reliability threshold for controlling the unfavorable load state which appears in the early operation stage of this type bridge is suggested,and then the combi­nation of bridge maintenance management and health monitoring system is realized.Finally,the transformed stress distribution certifies that the load effects of concrete bridges practically have a normal distribution;as for the concrete continuous rigid frame bridge with C50 strength grade concrete,the retrofit reliability threshold should be valued at 6.13.The methodology suggested in this article can help bridge engineers do effective maintenance of bridges,which can effectively extend the service life of the bridge and bring better economic and social benefits.

Convex Set Theory for Reliability Assessment of Steel Beam with Bounded Uncertainty

Probabilistic reliability model established by insufficient data is inaccessible. The convex model was applied to model the uncertainties of variables. A new non-probabilistic reliability model was proposed based on the robustness of system to uncertainty. The non-probabilistic reliability model,the infinite norm model,and the probabilistic model were used to assess the reliability of a steel beam,respectively. The results show that the resistance is allowed to couple with the action effect in the non-probabilistic reliability model. Additionally,the non-probabilistic reliability model becomes the same accurate as probabilistic model with the increase of the bounded uncertain information. The model is decided by the available data and information.

Efficient Computational Method for the Non-Probabilistic Reliability of Linear Structural Systems

The non-probabilistic reliability in higher dimensional situations cannot be calcu- lated efficiently using traditional methods, which either require a large amount of calculation or cause significant error. In this study, an efficient computational method is proposed for the cal- culation of non-probabilistic reliability based on the volume ratio theory, specificMly for linear structural systems. The common expression for non-probabilistic reliability is obtained through formula derivation with the amount of computation considerably reduced. The compatibility be- tween non-probabilistic and probabilistic safety measures is demonstrated through the Monte Carlo simulation. The high efficiency of the presented method is verified by several numerical examples.

An Efficient Strategy for Non-probabilistic Reliability-Based Multi-material Topology Optimization with Evidence Theory

It is essential to consider the effects of incomplete measurement,inaccurate information and inadequate cognition on structural topology optimization.For the multi-material structural topology optimization with non-probability uncertainty,the multi-material interpolation model is represented by the ordered rational approximation of mat erial properties(ordered RAMP).Combined with structural compliance minimization,the multi-material topology optimization with reliability constraints is established.The corresponding non-probability uncertainties are described by the evidence theory,and the uniformity processing method is introduced to convert the evidence variables into random variables.The first-order reliability method is employed to search the most probable point under the reliability index constraint,and then the random variables are equivalent to the deterministic variables according to the geometric meaning of the reliability index and sensitivity information.Therefore,the non-probabilistic reliability-based multi-material topology optimization is transformed into the conventional deterministic optimization format,followed by the ordered RAMP method to solve the optimization problem.Finally,through numerical examples of 2D and 3D structures,the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed method are verified to consider the geometrical dimensions and external loading uncertainties.

Non-Probabilistic Reliability Research on Multi-Variable Hydraulic Turbine Blade Model

Based on the interval mathematics and possibility theory, the variables existing in hydraulic turbine blade are described. Considering the multi-failure mode in turbine blade, multi-variable model is established to meet the actual situation. Thus, non-probabilistic reliability index is presented by comparing with the output range and the given range.

Theoretical analysis of non-probabilistic reliability based on interval model

The aim of this paper is to propose a theoretical approach for performing the nonprobabilistic reliability analysis of structure.Due to a great deal of uncertainties and limited measured data in engineering practice,the structural uncertain parameters were described as interval variables.The theoretical analysis model was developed by starting from the 2-D plane and 3-D space.In order to avoid the loss of probable failure points,the 2-D plane and 3-D space were respectively divided into two parts and three parts for further analysis.The study pointed out that the probable failure points only existed among extreme points and root points of the limit state function.Furthermore,the low-dimensional analytical scheme was extended to the high-dimensional case.Using the proposed approach,it is easy to find the most probable failure point and to acquire the reliability index through simple comparison directly.A number of equations used for calculating the extreme points and root points were also evaluated.This result was useful to avoid the loss of probable failure points and meaningful for optimizing searches in the research field.Finally,two kinds of examples were presented and compared with the existing computation.The good agreements show that the proposed theoretical analysis approach in the paper is correct.The efforts were conducted to improve the optimization method,to indicate the search direction and path,and to avoid only searching the local optimal solution which would result in missed probable failure points.