Effect of compressive strength on the performance of the NEMO-LIM model in Arctic Sea ice simulation

Satellite records show that the extent and thickness of sea ice in the Arctic Ocean have significantly decreased since the early 1970s.The prediction of sea ice is highly important,but accurate simulation of sea ice variations remains highly challenging.For improving model performance,sensitivity experiments were conducted using the coupled ocean and sea ice model(NEMO-LIM),and the simulation results were compared against satellite observations.Moreover,the contribution ratios of dynamic and thermodynamic processes to sea ice variations were analyzed.The results show that the performance of the model in reconstructing the spatial distribution of Arctic sea ice is highly sensitive to ice strength decay constant(C^(rhg)).By reducing the C^(rhg) constant,the sea ice compressive strength increases,leading to improved simulated sea ice states.The contribution of thermodynamic processes to sea ice melting was reduced due to less deformation and fracture of sea ice with increased compressive strength.Meanwhile,dynamic processes constrained more sea ice to the central Arctic Ocean and contributed to the increases in ice concentration,reducing the simulation bias in the central Arctic Ocean in summer.The root mean square error(RMSE)between modeled and the CryoSat-2/SMOS satellite observed ice thickness was reduced in the compressive strength-enhanced model solution.The ice thickness,especially of multiyear thick ice,was also reduced and matched with the satellite observation better in the freezing season.These provide an essential foundation on exploring the response of the marine ecosystem and biogeochemical cycling to sea ice changes.

The variation in basal channels and basal melt rates of Pine Island Ice Shelf

In recent years,there has been a significant acceleration in the thinning,calving and retreat of the Pine Island Ice Shelf(PIIS).The basal channels,results of enhanced basal melting,have the potential to significantly impact the stability of the PIIS.In this study,we used a variety of remote sensing data,including Landsat,REMA DEM,ICESat-1 and ICESat-2 satellite altimetry observations,and Ice Bridge airborne measurements,to study the spatiotemporal changes in the basal channels from 2003 to 2020 and basal melt rate from 2010 to 2017 of the PIIS under the Eulerian framework.We found that the basal channels are highly developed in the PIIS,with a total length exceeding 450 km.Most of the basal channels are ocean-sourced or groundingline-sourced basal channels,caused by the rapid melting under the ice shelf or near the groundingline.A raised seabed prevented warm water intrusion into the eastern branch of the PIIS,resulting in a lower basal melt rate in that area.In contrast,a deepsea trough facilitates warm seawater into the mainstream and the western branch of the PIIS,resulting in a higher basal melt rate in the main-stream,and the surface elevation changes above the basal channels of the mainstream and western branch are more significant.The El Ni?o event in 2015–2016 possibly slowed down the basal melting of the PIIS by modulating wind field,surface sea temperature and depth seawater temperature.Ocean and atmospheric changes were driven by El Ni?o,which can further explain and confirm the changes in the basal melting of the PIIS.

Nucleation of Supercooled Water by Neutrons: Latitude Dependence and Implications for Cloud Modelling

It has recently been shown that incident particles, neutrons, can initiate the freezing in a supercooled water volume. This new finding may have ramifications for the interpretation of both experimental data on the nucleation of laboratory samples of supercooled water and perhaps more importantly on the interpretation of ice nucleation involved in cloud physics. For example, if some fraction of the cloud nucleation previously attributed to dust, soot, or aerosols has been caused by cosmogenic neutrons, fresh consideration is required in the context of climate models. Moreover, as cosmogenic neutrons, most being muon-induced, have much greater flux at high latitudes, estimates of ice nucleates in these regions may be larger than required to accurately model cloud and condensation properties. This discrepancy has been pointed out in IPCC reports. Our paper discusses the connection between the new concept of neutrons nucleating supercooled water and the need for a new source of nucleation in high latitude clouds, ideally causing others to review current data, or to analyse future data with this idea in mind. .

The in situ observation of modelled sea ice drift characteristics in the Bohai Sea

Sea ice drift is mainly controlled by ocean currents, local wind, and internal ice stress. Information on sea ice motion, especially in situ synchronous observation of an ice velocity, a current velocity, and a wind speed, is of great significance to identify ice drift characteristics. A sea ice substitute, the so-called "modelled ice", which is made by polypropylene material with a density similar to Bohai Sea ice, is used to complete a free drift experiment in the open sea. The trajectories of isolated modelled ice, currents and wind in the Bohai Sea during non-frozen and frozen periods are obtained. The results show that the currents play a major role while the wind plays a minor role in the free drift of isolated modelled ice when the wind is mild in the Bohai Sea. The modelled ice drift is significantly affected by the ocean current and wind based on the ice–current–wind relationship established by a multiple linear regression. The modelled ice velocity calculated by the multiple linear regression is close to that of the in situ observation, the magnitude of the error between the calculated and observed ice velocities is less than12.05%, and the velocity direction error is less than 6.21°. Thus, the ice velocity can be estimated based on the observed current velocity and wind speed when the in situ observed ice velocity is missing. And the modelled ice of same thickness with a smaller density is more sensitive to the current velocity and the wind speed changes. In addition, the modelled ice drift characteristics are shown to be close to those of the real sea ice, which indicates that the modelled ice can be used as a good substitute of real ice for in situ observation of the free ice drift in the open sea, which helps solve time availability, safety and logistics problems related to in situ observation on real ice.

Observation and modelling of snow and sea ice mass balance and its sensitivity to atmospheric forcing during spring and summer 2007 in the Central Arctic

Snow depth and sea ice thickness were observed applying an ice mass balance buoy(IMB)in the drifting ice station Tara during the International Polar Year in 2007.Detailed in situ observations on meteorological variables and surface fluxes were taken during May to August.For this study,the operational analyses and short-term forecasts from two numerical weather prediction(NWP)models(ECMWF and HIRLAM)were extracted for the Tara drift trajectory.We compared the IMB,meteorological and surface flux observations against the NWP products,also applying a one-dimensional thermodynamic sea ice model(HIGHTSI)to calculate the snow and ice mass balance and its sensitivity to atmospheric forcing.The modelled snow depth time series,controlled by NWP-based precipitation,was in line with the observed one.HIGHTSI reproduced well the snowmelt onset,the progress of the melt,and the first date of snow-free conditions.HIGHTSI performed well also in the late August freezing season.Challenges remain to model the“false bottom”observed during the melting season.The evolution of the vertical temperature profiles in snow and ice was better simulated when the model was forced by in situ observations instead of NWP results.During the melting period,the nonlinear ice temperature profile was successfully modelled with both forcing options.During spring and the melting season,total sea ice mass balance was most sensitive to uncertainties in NWP results for the downward longwave radiation,followed by the downward shortwave radiation,air temperature,and wind speed.

Evaluation of Arctic Sea Ice Drift and its Relationship with Near-surface Wind and Ocean Current in Nine CMIP6 Models from China

The simulated Arctic sea ice drift and its relationship with the near-surface wind and surface ocean current during 1979-2014 in nine models from China that participated in the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP6)are examined by comparison with observational and reanalysis datasets.Most of the models reasonably represent the Beaufort Gyre(BG)and Transpolar Drift Stream(TDS)in the spatial patterns of their long-term mean sea ice drift,while the detailed location,extent,and strength of the BG and TDS vary among the models.About two-thirds of the models agree with the observation/reanalysis in the sense that the sea ice drift pattern is consistent with the near-surface wind pattern.About the same proportion of models shows that the sea ice drift pattern is consistent with the surface ocean current pattern.In the observation/reanalysis,however,the sea ice drift pattern does not match well with the surface ocean current pattern.All nine models missed the observational widespread sea ice drift speed acceleration across the Arctic.For the Arctic basin-wide spatial average,five of the nine models overestimate the Arctic long-term(1979-2014)mean sea ice drift speed in all months.Only FGOALS-g3 captures a significant sea ice drift speed increase from 1979 to 2014 both in spring and autumn.The increases are weaker than those in the observation.This evaluation helps assess the performance of the Arctic sea ice drift simulations in these CMIP6 models from China.

Modelling on seasonal lake ice evolution in central Asian arid climate zone: a case study

The seasonal cycle of ice thickness and temperature in Lake Wuliangsuhai,a typical shallow lake in the central Asian arid climate zone,was simulated using the HIGHTSI model and the MERRA-2 data as the meteorological forcing.The average ice growth rate was 0.64 cm·d^(−1) and −1.65 cm·d^(−1) for the growth and melting stage of the ice cover,respectively.The ice thickness agreed well with the field observations conducted in winter 2017,with a correlation coefficient of 0.97.The ice temperature field also agreed with observations in both daily variations and the vertical profile,and a better agreement in the daily amplitude and profile shape of ice temperature could be achieved if field data on physical properties of snow cover andmelting ice were available.This study proved the feasibility of both the HIGHTSI model and the MERRA-2 data for modeling the ice cover evolution in Lake Wuliangsuhai,providing a basis for a deep insight into the difference of lake ice evolution between central Asian arid climate zone and polar/sub-polar regions.

Assessment of Arctic sea ice simulations in CMIP5 models using a synthetical skill scoring method

The Arctic sea ice cover has declined at an unprecedented pace since the late 20th century. As a result, the feedback of sea ice anomalies for atmospheric circulation has been increasingly evidenced. While climatic models almost consistently reproduced a decreasing trend of sea ice cover, the reported results show a large distribution. To evaluate the performance of models for simulating Arctic sea ice cover and its potential role in climate change, this study constructed a reasonable metric by synthesizing both linear trends and anomalies of sea ice. This study particularly focused on the Barents Sea and the Kara Sea, where sea ice anomalies have the highest potential to affect the atmosphere. The investigated models can be grouped into three categories according to their normalized skill scores. The strong contrast among the multi-model ensemble means of different groups demonstrates the robustness and rationality of this method. Potential factors that account for the different performances of climate models are further explored. The results show that model performance depends more on the ozone datasets that are prescribed by the model rather than on the chemical representation of ozone.

Improved sea-ice radiative processes in a global coupled climate model

The NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) coupled global climate model was used to investigate the sensitivity of sea ice to improved representations of sea-ice radiative processes: (1) a more sophisticated surface albedo scheme and (2) the penetration of solar radiation in sea ice. The results show that the large-scale sea-ice conditions are very sensitive to the aforementioned parameterizations. Although the more sophisticated surface albedo scheme produces a more realistic seasonal cycle of the surface albedo as compared with the baseline simulation, the resulting higher albedo relative to the baseline simulation generates much more and thicker ice in the arctic.The penetration of solar radiation in sea-ice itself tends to reduce the ice cover and thickness in the entire arctic and the western antarctic, and increase the ice cover and thickness in the eastern antarctic. The combination of (1) and (2) significantly improves the simulations of the average ice thickness and its spatial distribution in the arctic. The atmospheric responses associated with sea-ice changes were also discussed. While improvements are seen, particularly of the ice thickness distribution, there are still some unrealistic aspects that will require further improvements to the sea-ice component.

Application of an ice-ocean coupled model to Bohai Sea ice simulation

The HAMSOM(Hamburg Shelf Ocean Model),a high-resolution regional ice-ocean coupled model,was applied to investigate the seasonal evolution of Bohai Sea ice for winter 2015/2016.HAMSOM was initialized with monthly climatological temperature and salinity data from WOA13 and driven by hourly meteorological data obtained from the NCEP above the sea surface and tides at the open boundary.The ice model used here is a modifi ed Hibler-type dynamic-thermodynamic sea ice model based upon viscous-plastic rheology.The ice extent,concentration,area,thickness,length of ice season as well as the distance between the top of Liaodong Bay(North China)and the outer ice edge line were simulated and compared with the observed data.Three types of modeling experiments were carried out to investigate the eff ects of wind,tide,and both wind and tide on Bohai Sea ice.The results show that wind,as both a dynamic and a thermodynamic factor,has a signifi cant impact on the ice thickness,ice area,and ice-freezing and ice breakup dates as well as the ice velocity,while tides are a dynamic factor that infl uences only the ice velocity.During the severe ice period,the wind speed intensity increased by 25%,the average ice thickness thickened by approximately 4.0 cm in Liaodong Bay,approximately 2.1 cm in Bohai Bay and approximately 2.5 cm in Laizhou Bay,and the total ice coverage area and total ice actual area increased by about 2×104 km 2 and 1.4×104 km 2,respectively.While the tidal amplitude intensity increased by 25%,the average ice velocity increased by approximately 0.1 m/s.

Using a skillful statistical model to predict September sea ice covering Arctic shipping routes

The rapid decrease in Arctic sea ice cover and thickness not only has a linkage with extreme weather in the midlatitudes but also brings more opportunities for Arctic shipping routes and polar resource exploration,both of which motivate us to further understand causes of sea-ice variations and to obtain more accurate estimates of seaice cover in the future.Here,a novel data-driven method,the causal effect networks algorithm,is applied to identify the direct precursors of September sea-ice extent covering the Northern Sea Route and Transpolar Sea Route at different lead times so that statistical models can be constructed for sea-ice prediction.The whole study area was also divided into two parts:the northern region covered by multiyear ice and the southern region covered by seasonal ice.The forecast models of September sea-ice extent in the whole study area(TSIE)and southern region(SSIE)at lead times of 1–4 months can explain over 65%and 79%of the variances,respectively,but the forecast skill of sea-ice extent in the northern region(NSIE)is limited at a lead time of 1 month.At lead times of 1–4 months,local sea-ice concentration and sea-ice thickness have a larger influence on September TSIE and SSIE than other teleconnection factors.When the lead time is more than 4 months,the surface meridional wind anomaly from northern Europe in the preceding autumn or early winter is dominant for September TSIE variations but is comparable to thermodynamic factors for NSIE and SSIE.We suggest that this study provides a complementary approach for predicting regional sea ice and is helpful in evaluating and improving climate models.

Modeling and Validation of the Ice Growth in an Ice Storage System

This work deals with the optimization of the icing process in an ice storage system.It is focused on the improvement of the icing behavior,which is to be achieved by different heat exchanger geometries in the ice storage tank.Therefore,CFD simulations were implemented to acquire and visualize the flow conditions,the temperature behavior and the growth of the ice layer during the cooling process.The results are compared and validated with model experiments on an experimental ice storage.It could be shown that the heat extraction of current technologies can be increased by more than 50% by using geometries that are more efficient.

An Arctic Sea Ice Simulation Using an Ocean-Ice Coupled Model

This paper evaluates the simulation of Arctic sea ice states using an ocean-ice coupled model that employs LASG/IAP(the State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics/the Institute of Atmospheric Physics) Climate Ocean Model(LICOM) and the sea-ice model from the Bergen Climate Model(BCM).It is shown that the coupled model can reasonably reproduce the major characteristics of the mean state,annual cycle,and interannual variability of the Arctic sea ice concentration.The coupled model also shows biases that were generally presented in other models,such as the underestimation of summer sea ice concentration and thickness as well as the unsatisfactory sea ice velocity.Sensitivity experiments indicate that the insufficient performance of the ocean model at high latitudes may be the main reason for the biases in the coupled model.The smoother and the fake "island",which had to be used due to the model's grid in the North Pole region,likely caused the ocean model's weak performance.Sea ice model thermodynamics are also responsible for the sea ice simulation biases.Therefore,both the thermodynamic module of the sea ice component and the model grid of the ocean component need to be further improved.

Peridynamic Modeling and Simulation of Ice Craters By Impact

In the present work,a state-based peridynamics with adaptive particle refinement is proposed to simulate water ice crater formation due to impact loads.A modified Drucker-Prager constitutive model was adopted to model ice and was implemented in the state-based peridynamic equations to analyze the elastic-plastic deformation of ice.In simulations,we use the fracture toughness failure criterion in peridynamics to simulate the quasi-brittle failure of ice.An adaptive particle refinement method in peridynamics was proposed to improve computational efficiency.The results obtained using the peridynamic model were compared with the experiments in previous literatures.It was found that the peridynamic simulation results and the experiments matched well except for some minor differences discussed,and the state-based peridynamic model has shown the specific predictive capacity to capture the detailed crater features of the ice.

Variation of Sea Ice Temperature from CHINARE 2003 and Its Application on Sea Ice Model Evaluation

Variation of vertical profiles of sea ice temperature and adjacent atmosphere and ocean temperatures were measured by ice drifting buoys deployed in the northeast Chukchi Sea as part of the 2003 Chinese Arctic Research Expedition.The buoy observations (September 2003 to February 2005) show that the cooling of the ice began in late September,propagated down through the ice,reaching the bottom of the ice in December,and continued throughout the winter.In winter 2003/04,some obvious warmings were observed in the upper portion of the ice in response to major warmings in the overlying atmosphere associated with the periodicity of storms in the northeast Chukchi Sea.It is found that the melt season at the buoy site in 2004 was about 15% longer than normal.The buoy observed vertical ice temperature profiles were used as a diagnostic for sea ice model evaluation.The results show that the simulated ice temperature profiles have large discrepancies as compared with the observations.

Simulation of Stochastic Ice Force Process of Vertical Offshore Structure Based on Spectral Model

The action of drifting ice floes may induce strong vibrations of offshore structures,and further reduce the structural safety and serviceability.The aim of this paper is to develop a method by considering ice crushing as a stochastic process.On the basis of ice force spectrum which considers the time and spatial correlation between the local ice forces,a simulation methodology to generate the stochastic ice forces process of vertical offshore structure is proposed.The crucial segment in the simulation is to accurately calculate the effective ice pressure,and it is accomplished by an empirical formula which can provide a high calculation accuracy.Considering the effect of incidence angle and tangential ice force,global ice force spectrum is established,and the synthesis of the local ice force is realized.The presented simulation methodology is conducted on the Norstr?msground lighthouse to verify its efficacy.The results show that the simulated maximum global ice forces are close to those measured data,and the frequency contents of the generations coincide well with the target.They directly proves the validity of the proposed simulation method.Compared with the traditional methods,such as field measurement and ice force identification,the present simulation method has advantages in the application range.It can be used to simulate the stochastic global ice force for an arbitrary width offshore structure.In addition,it can also be used for extreme ice force analysis and dynamic response analysis of offshore structures.

Establishmen and vertification of an improved similitude law for dynamic ice force model test

To study the similitude laws for dynamic ice force model test which is a hot problem in ice mechanics.In this paper,a new modified similitude law for dynamic ice force model test is proposed based on ice-induced virbration theory and two reasonable assumptions.And the new law is vertified with an ice-induced pier virbration example.The numerical calculation results show that,firstly,the error of frequency factor between test value and theory value is small as well as that of displacement and velocity;Secondly,the time scale completely meet the similitude relation,the waveforms anastomotic well,and the phenomenon of offset and omit do not occur;Thirdly,as the damping ratio between prototype and model is nearly equal,the improved similitude law will still be applied.Therefore,the new modified similitude law is feasible to study dynamic ice force model test and can provide reference for the ice mechanics.

Numerical Analysis of Ice Rubble with a Freeze-Bond Model in Dilated Polyhedral Discrete Element Method

Freezing in ice rubble is a common phenomenon in cold regions,which can consolidate loose blocks and change their mechanical properties.To model the cohesive effect in frozen ice rubble,and to describe the fragmentation behavior with a large external forces exerted,a freeze-bond model based on the dilated polyhedral discrete element method(DEM)is proposed.Herein,imaginary bonding is initialized at the contact points to transmit forces and moments,and the initiation of the damage is detected using the hybrid fracture model.The model is validated through the qualitative agreement between the simulation results and the analytical solution of two bonding particles.To study the effect of freeze-bond on the floating ice rubble,punch-through tests were simulated on the ice rubble under freezing and nonfreezing conditions.The deformation and resistance of the ice rubble are investigated during indenter penetration.The influence of the internal friction coefficient on the strength of the ice rubble is determined.The results indicate that the proposed model can properly describe the consolidated ice rubble,and the freeze-bond effect is of great significance to the ice rubble properties.

The Coordinated Influence of Indian Ocean Sea Surface Temperature and Arctic Sea Ice on Anomalous Northeast China Cold Vortex Activities with Different Paths during Late Summer

The Northeast China cold vortex(NCCV)during late summer(from July to August)is identified and classified into three types in terms of its movement path using machine learning.The relationships of the three types of NCCV intensity with atmospheric circulations in late summer,the sea surface temperature(SST),and Arctic sea ice concentration(SIC)in the preceding months,are analyzed.The sensitivity tests by the Community Atmosphere Model version 5.3(CAM5.3)are used to verify the statistical results.The results show that the coordination pattern of East Asia-Pacific(EAP)and Lake Baikal high pressure forced by SST anomalies in the North Indian Ocean dipole mode(NIOD)during the preceding April and SIC anomalies in the Nansen Basin during the preceding June results in an intensity anomaly for the first type of NCCV.While the pattern of high pressure over the Urals and Okhotsk Sea and low pressure over Lake Baikal during late summer-which is forced by SST anomalies in the South Indian Ocean dipole mode(SIOD)in the preceding June and SIC anomalies in the Barents Sea in the preceding April-causes the intensity anomaly of the second type.The third type is atypical and is not analyzed in detail.Sensitivity tests,jointly forced by the SST and SIC in the preceding period,can well reproduce the observations.In contrast,the results forced separately by the SST and SIC are poor,indicating that the NCCV during late summer is likely influenced by the coordinated effects of both SST and SIC in the preceding months.

Car-following Model and Its Stability under Ice and Snowfall Conditions

In order to describe the behavior of the car under ice and snowfall conditions more realistically,a vehicle following model based on the full velocity difference model is proposed under the premise of considering the speed difference and various kinds of ice and snowfall conditions. Under various road conditions,it obtains the critical stability curve of the model,and verifies that the worse the road condition is,the less stable the traffic flow is. In addition,the method of nonlinear analysis is used to obtain the solution of the kink density wave in the space headway under the unstable region. Finally,the conclusions are verified by numerical simulation,that worse road conditions,which means the road surface friction coefficient is small,will lead to greater instability region and worse anti-interference ability of traffic flow,and even cause more congestion and accidents. The conclusions make great contributions to handling the traffic jams and security issues under ice and snowfall conditions.