Preventing financial risk is an important topic that academic circles and the government have paid attention to for a long time.The development of fintech and the improvement of financial regulation will affect the le...Preventing financial risk is an important topic that academic circles and the government have paid attention to for a long time.The development of fintech and the improvement of financial regulation will affect the level of financial risk.The relationship between the degree of matching between fintech and financial regulation and financial risk is explored,which is crucial for reducing financial risk.Panel data from 31 provinces in China from 2011 to 2020 is used to explore the impact of fintech and financial regulatory matching levels on financial risk.The study finds that the improved matching level between fintech and financial regulation helps reduce financial risk.The degree of matching between fintech and financial regulation affects financial risk through financial efficiency.展开更多
As a core issue in enterprise operation management,corporate financial risk is directly related to the survival and development of enterprises,and digital transformation has brought new challenges to the control of co...As a core issue in enterprise operation management,corporate financial risk is directly related to the survival and development of enterprises,and digital transformation has brought new challenges to the control of corporate financial risk.Based on the data of The Shanghai Stock Exchange(SSE)and Shenzhen Stock Exchange(SZSE)from 2009 to 2022,this paper analyzes the impact of digital transformation on corporate financial risk and the impact mechanism.The empirical study finds that digital transformation significantly increases the financial risk of enterprises,and shows differences among different regions,different risk factors,and enterprise natures,and substantially increases the corporate financial risk in the East and West,non-state-owned enterprises,high-risk and low-risk enterprises.The mechanism analysis found that digital transformation would affect the financial risk of enterprises by increasing their R&D investment and reducing their debt level.The conclusion improves insights and guidance for analyzing and managing financial risks in enterprises under digital transformation.展开更多
China’s top financial regulators have warned about risks in complicated financial products and banks’off-balance sheet business,in a bid to prevent cross-market risk contagion,according to senior officials recently.
This article aims to study the indicators used in the financial analysis for credit and explain them. Also it checks the impact of each indicator in credit analysis and what happens if the pointer is changed deliberat...This article aims to study the indicators used in the financial analysis for credit and explain them. Also it checks the impact of each indicator in credit analysis and what happens if the pointer is changed deliberately to get the loan, giving some possible ways to do it and analyzing them. It proposes a new model to evaluate the indicators and the assignment of weights in formula evaluation of each indicator, so the risks of granting credit will be smaller as well as the evaluation of the financial terms of a company will be more balanced and optimal. The scope is to equilibrate the weights of each indicator in the fmancial credit analyze not by rescoring its value but by assigning shares in the evaluation formula. Doing this, it can be considered as a double checking using the same parameters and it lowers the risks in the money recovering. As it is debated in the article anyone can do fxaud to obtain a loan by altering the documents they provide through which some can do it good and even get uncaught. The scope is not to find what they did; it is to get protected even if they do it.展开更多
At present,the“grey rhinoceros”in China’s financial sector mainly exists in the real estate bubble and enterprise debt accumulation.In order to release the financial risks accumulated in the past,on the one hand,we...At present,the“grey rhinoceros”in China’s financial sector mainly exists in the real estate bubble and enterprise debt accumulation.In order to release the financial risks accumulated in the past,on the one hand,we should weaken the economic growth indicators,resolve to eliminate the zombie enterprises,neutralize the monetary policy and change the incentive mechanism of the officials’assessment.On the other hand,we should also encourage the ideological emancipation to stabilize the expectation and further promote streamlining government and delegating authorities.展开更多
Based on rural household data collected in two rounds of the China Household Finance Survey(CHFS)in 2015 and 2017,respectively,this paper presents the likely impact of financial literacy and capability against risks o...Based on rural household data collected in two rounds of the China Household Finance Survey(CHFS)in 2015 and 2017,respectively,this paper presents the likely impact of financial literacy and capability against risks on the breadth and depth of participation by rural households in risky financial markets.After instrumental variables are used to solve endogenous problems,we find that a good command of financial knowledge and a higher risk management level could significantly increase the probability and proportion of rural households investing in risky financial assets.A mechanism analysis further reveals that financial knowledge motivates rural households to engage in financial investments by helping them evaluate their capability to guard against risks.After multiple dimensions of indicators are employed to measure financial knowledge,the estimated results remain stable.In view of this,we have put forward some policy suggestions to increase the property income of rural households and promote the rural financial market.展开更多
With the rapid development of computer networking technology, the whole world has become a "global village." At the same time, the insistent combination of Networking technology and financial services made the tradi...With the rapid development of computer networking technology, the whole world has become a "global village." At the same time, the insistent combination of Networking technology and financial services made the traditional financial concept undergo profound changes. Financial Network is the general trend. Financial innovation has come to an Internet-based and service- oriented way of innovative rapid development stage. As the improvements of the degree of financial services network, how to effectively guard against financial risks under control network environment is an important issue we face.展开更多
It is of vital importance for shadow banking supervision to have correct targets for the curtailment of financial risks.In fact,the process of selecting legal regulation targets for shadow banking financial risks is e...It is of vital importance for shadow banking supervision to have correct targets for the curtailment of financial risks.In fact,the process of selecting legal regulation targets for shadow banking financial risks is equivalent to a process of achieving specific goals or objectives by means of legal regulation.The establishment of a regulatory system for shadow banking should consider the objective and practical needs of the sector,prioritize security as the desired value,and reasonably establish a value system for risk control.展开更多
In this paper, we conduct research on the reasonable strategy of the development of commercial banks under the perspective of P2P Internet financial risks. P2P financial model mainly for China' s small and medium ent...In this paper, we conduct research on the reasonable strategy of the development of commercial banks under the perspective of P2P Internet financial risks. P2P financial model mainly for China' s small and medium enterprises and individuals to provides financing services. Generally need to use e-commerce professional network platform lending to help both sides to establish lending relationship and complete the related formalities. Traditional commercial banks need reform to keep up with the novel financial tools related to the Internet financing which will be discussed below.展开更多
THE Chinese economy faces three major risks: burst of real estate bubbles, risks of local gov ernment financing platforms and split of capital chains for private lending.
Engineering facilities subjected to natural hazards(such as winds and earthquakes) will result in risk when any designed system(i.e.capacity) will not be able to meet the performance required(i.e.demand).Risk might be...Engineering facilities subjected to natural hazards(such as winds and earthquakes) will result in risk when any designed system(i.e.capacity) will not be able to meet the performance required(i.e.demand).Risk might be expressed either as a likelihood of damage or potential financial loss.Engineers tend to make use of the former(i.e.damage).Nevertheless,other non-technical stakeholders cannot get useful information from damage.However,if financial risk is expressed on the basis of probable monetary loss,it will be easily understood by all.Therefore,it is necessary to develop methodologies which communicate the system capacity and demand to financial risk,Incremental dynamic analysis(IDA) was applied in a performance-based earthquake engineering context to do hazard analysis,structural analysis,damage analysis and loss analysis of a reinforced concrete(RC) frame structure.And the financial implications of risk were expressed by expected annual loss(EAL).The quantitative risk analysis proposed is applicable to any engineering facilities and any natural hazards.It is shown that the results from the IDA can be used to assess the overall financial risk exposure to earthquake hazard for a given constructed facility.The computational IDA-EAL method will enable engineers to take into account the long-term financial implications in addition to the construction cost.Consequently,it will help stakeholders make decisions.展开更多
According to the risk management process of financial markets,a financial risk dynamic system is constructed in this paper.Through analyzing the basic dynamic properties,we obtain the conditions for stability and bifu...According to the risk management process of financial markets,a financial risk dynamic system is constructed in this paper.Through analyzing the basic dynamic properties,we obtain the conditions for stability and bifurcation of the system based on Hopf bifurcation theory of nonlinear dynamic systems.In order to make the system's chaos disappear,we select the feedback gain matrix to design a class of chaotic controller.Numerical simulations are performed to reveal the change process of financial market risk.It is shown that,when the parameter of risk transmission rate changes,the system gradually comes into chaos from the asymptotically stable state through bifurcation.The controller can then control the chaos effectively.展开更多
Recent economic crises like the 2008 financial tsunami has demonstrated a critical need for better understanding of the topologies and various economic,social,and technical mechanisms of the increasingly interconnecte...Recent economic crises like the 2008 financial tsunami has demonstrated a critical need for better understanding of the topologies and various economic,social,and technical mechanisms of the increasingly interconnected global financial system.Such a system largely relies on the interconnectedness of various financial entities such as banks,firms,and investors through complex financial relationships such as interbank payment networks,investment relations,or supply chains.A network-based perspective or approach is needed to study various financial networks in order to improve or extend financial theories,as well as develop business applications.Moreover,with the advance of big data related technologies,and the availability of huge amounts of financial and economic network data,advanced computing technologies and data analytics that can comprehend such big data are also needed.We referred this approach as financial network analytics.We suggest that it will enable stakeholders better understand the network dynamics within the interconnected global financial system and help designing financial policies such as managing and monitoring banking systemic risk,as well as developing intelligent business applications like banking advisory systems.In this paper,we review the existing research about financial network analytics and then discuss its main research challenges from the economic,social,and technological perspectives.展开更多
Due to global financial crisis,risk management has received significant attention to avoid loss and maximize profit in any business.Since the financial crisis prediction(FCP)process is mainly based on data driven deci...Due to global financial crisis,risk management has received significant attention to avoid loss and maximize profit in any business.Since the financial crisis prediction(FCP)process is mainly based on data driven decision making and intelligent models,artificial intelligence(AI)and machine learning(ML)models are widely utilized.This article introduces an intelligent feature selection with deep learning based financial risk assessment model(IFSDL-FRA).The proposed IFSDL-FRA technique aims to determine the financial crisis of a company or enterprise.In addition,the IFSDL-FRA technique involves the design of new water strider optimization algorithm based feature selection(WSOA-FS)manner to an optimum selection of feature subsets.Moreover,Deep Random Vector Functional Link network(DRVFLN)classification technique was applied to properly allot the class labels to the financial data.Furthermore,improved fruit fly optimization algorithm(IFFOA)based hyperparameter tuning process is carried out to optimally tune the hyperparameters of the DRVFLN model.For enhancing the better performance of the IFSDL-FRA technique,an extensive set of simulations are implemented on benchmark financial datasets and the obtained outcomes determine the betterment of IFSDL-FRA technique on the recent state of art approaches.展开更多
We document the effect of the 2007/2008 financial crisis on the volume and the quality of enterprise risk management (ERM) disclosure in the annual reports of the largest US banks, and analyze its determinants. Usin...We document the effect of the 2007/2008 financial crisis on the volume and the quality of enterprise risk management (ERM) disclosure in the annual reports of the largest US banks, and analyze its determinants. Using a content analysis approach of the annual reports form 10-K for the years 2006, 2007, 2008, and 2009, we find that the ERM disclosure is significantly and positively associated with the crisis, bank size, board independence, duality and significantly and negatively associated with profitability, leverage, and board size. This paper seeks to fill a gap in the literature by investigating the effect of the crisis on ERM disclosure in the US banking sector context, and gives an insight into the factors affecting risk disclosure practices during the financial crisis.展开更多
As technology and the internet develop,more data are generated every day.These data are in large sizes,high dimensions,and complex structures.The combination of these three features is the“Big Data”[1].Big data is r...As technology and the internet develop,more data are generated every day.These data are in large sizes,high dimensions,and complex structures.The combination of these three features is the“Big Data”[1].Big data is revolutionizing all industries,bringing colossal impacts to them[2].Many researchers have pointed out the huge impact that big data can have on our daily lives[3].We can utilize the information we obtain and help us make decisions.Also,the conclusions we drew from the big data we analyzed can be used as a prediction for the future,helping us to make more accurate and benign decisions earlier than others.If we apply these technics in finance,for example,in stock,we can get detailed information for stocks.Moreover,we can use the analyzed data to predict certain stocks.This can help people decide whether to buy a stock or not by providing predicted data for people at a certain convincing level,helping to protect them from potential losses.展开更多
To research the operating mechanisms of rural financial reform, through setting up a contract model, the constraint roles of reputation and legal intervention on the default risk arising in the operating of the credit...To research the operating mechanisms of rural financial reform, through setting up a contract model, the constraint roles of reputation and legal intervention on the default risk arising in the operating of the credit union funds are inspected. Analysis indicates that the increase in reputation cost can reduce the probability of union member default behavior and the probability of turning to the law for the credit union funds. Meanwhile, the amount of loans and the interest rates can increase the probability of turning to the law for the credit union funds. Below the marginal values, the penalty mechanisms can reduce the balancing probabilities of member default behavior and turning to the law for the credit union funds, namely, the penalty has some "substitution effect" for turning to the law for the credit union funds.展开更多
Population ageing and high financial leverage are two common problems .faced by the worM's major economies. The recent financial crisis proved that the two issues could lead to systemic risk if not handled properly. ...Population ageing and high financial leverage are two common problems .faced by the worM's major economies. The recent financial crisis proved that the two issues could lead to systemic risk if not handled properly. Based on dynamic panel data from 1980 to 2012 in 119 countries, this paper examines the impact of population ageing on financial leverage J?om an empirical point of view and finds that there is a signOqcant inverted U-shape relationship between the two. In addition, empirical studies show that after passing the "turning point" of ageing, there will be a marked increase in the probability of financial crisis during the "deleveraging" process. It can be projected from the empirical conclusions of this paper that China will likely enter the range of a turning point between 2019 and 2028. After that, population ageing, deleveraging and asset price collapse may have a "resonance" effect to severely impact the stability of the financial system. Therefore, China should shift to more proactive macro financial regulations as quickly as possible, as dynamic and robust management of financial leverage and forward-looking control of bubbles could ensure that the financial system remain flexible enough to avoid systemic risk to the greatest extent.展开更多
Based on Input-Output Table in 2010 issued by National Bureau of Statistics of China, with the help of input-output model and with the calculation of indexes of industrial relevance degree in Chinese information techn...Based on Input-Output Table in 2010 issued by National Bureau of Statistics of China, with the help of input-output model and with the calculation of indexes of industrial relevance degree in Chinese information technology industry, the paper reveals the industrial relevance in Chinese information technology industry. The paper also selects the relevant industries which are highly associated with the development of Chinese information technology industry based on industrial relevance degree to analyze the influences of these industries on the financial situation risk fluctuation in information technology industry and to design the matrix of financial situation risk in information technology industry. Then, the paper offers countermeasures and suggestions for the development of our information technology industry.展开更多
文摘Preventing financial risk is an important topic that academic circles and the government have paid attention to for a long time.The development of fintech and the improvement of financial regulation will affect the level of financial risk.The relationship between the degree of matching between fintech and financial regulation and financial risk is explored,which is crucial for reducing financial risk.Panel data from 31 provinces in China from 2011 to 2020 is used to explore the impact of fintech and financial regulatory matching levels on financial risk.The study finds that the improved matching level between fintech and financial regulation helps reduce financial risk.The degree of matching between fintech and financial regulation affects financial risk through financial efficiency.
文摘As a core issue in enterprise operation management,corporate financial risk is directly related to the survival and development of enterprises,and digital transformation has brought new challenges to the control of corporate financial risk.Based on the data of The Shanghai Stock Exchange(SSE)and Shenzhen Stock Exchange(SZSE)from 2009 to 2022,this paper analyzes the impact of digital transformation on corporate financial risk and the impact mechanism.The empirical study finds that digital transformation significantly increases the financial risk of enterprises,and shows differences among different regions,different risk factors,and enterprise natures,and substantially increases the corporate financial risk in the East and West,non-state-owned enterprises,high-risk and low-risk enterprises.The mechanism analysis found that digital transformation would affect the financial risk of enterprises by increasing their R&D investment and reducing their debt level.The conclusion improves insights and guidance for analyzing and managing financial risks in enterprises under digital transformation.
文摘China’s top financial regulators have warned about risks in complicated financial products and banks’off-balance sheet business,in a bid to prevent cross-market risk contagion,according to senior officials recently.
文摘This article aims to study the indicators used in the financial analysis for credit and explain them. Also it checks the impact of each indicator in credit analysis and what happens if the pointer is changed deliberately to get the loan, giving some possible ways to do it and analyzing them. It proposes a new model to evaluate the indicators and the assignment of weights in formula evaluation of each indicator, so the risks of granting credit will be smaller as well as the evaluation of the financial terms of a company will be more balanced and optimal. The scope is to equilibrate the weights of each indicator in the fmancial credit analyze not by rescoring its value but by assigning shares in the evaluation formula. Doing this, it can be considered as a double checking using the same parameters and it lowers the risks in the money recovering. As it is debated in the article anyone can do fxaud to obtain a loan by altering the documents they provide through which some can do it good and even get uncaught. The scope is not to find what they did; it is to get protected even if they do it.
文摘At present,the“grey rhinoceros”in China’s financial sector mainly exists in the real estate bubble and enterprise debt accumulation.In order to release the financial risks accumulated in the past,on the one hand,we should weaken the economic growth indicators,resolve to eliminate the zombie enterprises,neutralize the monetary policy and change the incentive mechanism of the officials’assessment.On the other hand,we should also encourage the ideological emancipation to stabilize the expectation and further promote streamlining government and delegating authorities.
基金Social Science Planning Project of Sichuan Province(SC21B031)。
文摘Based on rural household data collected in two rounds of the China Household Finance Survey(CHFS)in 2015 and 2017,respectively,this paper presents the likely impact of financial literacy and capability against risks on the breadth and depth of participation by rural households in risky financial markets.After instrumental variables are used to solve endogenous problems,we find that a good command of financial knowledge and a higher risk management level could significantly increase the probability and proportion of rural households investing in risky financial assets.A mechanism analysis further reveals that financial knowledge motivates rural households to engage in financial investments by helping them evaluate their capability to guard against risks.After multiple dimensions of indicators are employed to measure financial knowledge,the estimated results remain stable.In view of this,we have put forward some policy suggestions to increase the property income of rural households and promote the rural financial market.
文摘With the rapid development of computer networking technology, the whole world has become a "global village." At the same time, the insistent combination of Networking technology and financial services made the traditional financial concept undergo profound changes. Financial Network is the general trend. Financial innovation has come to an Internet-based and service- oriented way of innovative rapid development stage. As the improvements of the degree of financial services network, how to effectively guard against financial risks under control network environment is an important issue we face.
基金This paper is funded by the National Social Science Fund titled“Study on the Legal Issues Concerning the Financial Risks and Security of Shadow Banking”(13CXF081).
文摘It is of vital importance for shadow banking supervision to have correct targets for the curtailment of financial risks.In fact,the process of selecting legal regulation targets for shadow banking financial risks is equivalent to a process of achieving specific goals or objectives by means of legal regulation.The establishment of a regulatory system for shadow banking should consider the objective and practical needs of the sector,prioritize security as the desired value,and reasonably establish a value system for risk control.
文摘In this paper, we conduct research on the reasonable strategy of the development of commercial banks under the perspective of P2P Internet financial risks. P2P financial model mainly for China' s small and medium enterprises and individuals to provides financing services. Generally need to use e-commerce professional network platform lending to help both sides to establish lending relationship and complete the related formalities. Traditional commercial banks need reform to keep up with the novel financial tools related to the Internet financing which will be discussed below.
文摘THE Chinese economy faces three major risks: burst of real estate bubbles, risks of local gov ernment financing platforms and split of capital chains for private lending.
基金Project(2011CB013804) supported by the National Basic Research Program of ChinaProject(50925828) supported by the National Natural Science Funds for Distinguished Young Scholars of China
文摘Engineering facilities subjected to natural hazards(such as winds and earthquakes) will result in risk when any designed system(i.e.capacity) will not be able to meet the performance required(i.e.demand).Risk might be expressed either as a likelihood of damage or potential financial loss.Engineers tend to make use of the former(i.e.damage).Nevertheless,other non-technical stakeholders cannot get useful information from damage.However,if financial risk is expressed on the basis of probable monetary loss,it will be easily understood by all.Therefore,it is necessary to develop methodologies which communicate the system capacity and demand to financial risk,Incremental dynamic analysis(IDA) was applied in a performance-based earthquake engineering context to do hazard analysis,structural analysis,damage analysis and loss analysis of a reinforced concrete(RC) frame structure.And the financial implications of risk were expressed by expected annual loss(EAL).The quantitative risk analysis proposed is applicable to any engineering facilities and any natural hazards.It is shown that the results from the IDA can be used to assess the overall financial risk exposure to earthquake hazard for a given constructed facility.The computational IDA-EAL method will enable engineers to take into account the long-term financial implications in addition to the construction cost.Consequently,it will help stakeholders make decisions.
基金Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 70271068)
文摘According to the risk management process of financial markets,a financial risk dynamic system is constructed in this paper.Through analyzing the basic dynamic properties,we obtain the conditions for stability and bifurcation of the system based on Hopf bifurcation theory of nonlinear dynamic systems.In order to make the system's chaos disappear,we select the feedback gain matrix to design a class of chaotic controller.Numerical simulations are performed to reveal the change process of financial market risk.It is shown that,when the parameter of risk transmission rate changes,the system gradually comes into chaos from the asymptotically stable state through bifurcation.The controller can then control the chaos effectively.
基金This research was partially supported by Department of informatics,Faculty of Economics,Business Administration and Information Technology,University of Zurich.
文摘Recent economic crises like the 2008 financial tsunami has demonstrated a critical need for better understanding of the topologies and various economic,social,and technical mechanisms of the increasingly interconnected global financial system.Such a system largely relies on the interconnectedness of various financial entities such as banks,firms,and investors through complex financial relationships such as interbank payment networks,investment relations,or supply chains.A network-based perspective or approach is needed to study various financial networks in order to improve or extend financial theories,as well as develop business applications.Moreover,with the advance of big data related technologies,and the availability of huge amounts of financial and economic network data,advanced computing technologies and data analytics that can comprehend such big data are also needed.We referred this approach as financial network analytics.We suggest that it will enable stakeholders better understand the network dynamics within the interconnected global financial system and help designing financial policies such as managing and monitoring banking systemic risk,as well as developing intelligent business applications like banking advisory systems.In this paper,we review the existing research about financial network analytics and then discuss its main research challenges from the economic,social,and technological perspectives.
文摘Due to global financial crisis,risk management has received significant attention to avoid loss and maximize profit in any business.Since the financial crisis prediction(FCP)process is mainly based on data driven decision making and intelligent models,artificial intelligence(AI)and machine learning(ML)models are widely utilized.This article introduces an intelligent feature selection with deep learning based financial risk assessment model(IFSDL-FRA).The proposed IFSDL-FRA technique aims to determine the financial crisis of a company or enterprise.In addition,the IFSDL-FRA technique involves the design of new water strider optimization algorithm based feature selection(WSOA-FS)manner to an optimum selection of feature subsets.Moreover,Deep Random Vector Functional Link network(DRVFLN)classification technique was applied to properly allot the class labels to the financial data.Furthermore,improved fruit fly optimization algorithm(IFFOA)based hyperparameter tuning process is carried out to optimally tune the hyperparameters of the DRVFLN model.For enhancing the better performance of the IFSDL-FRA technique,an extensive set of simulations are implemented on benchmark financial datasets and the obtained outcomes determine the betterment of IFSDL-FRA technique on the recent state of art approaches.
文摘We document the effect of the 2007/2008 financial crisis on the volume and the quality of enterprise risk management (ERM) disclosure in the annual reports of the largest US banks, and analyze its determinants. Using a content analysis approach of the annual reports form 10-K for the years 2006, 2007, 2008, and 2009, we find that the ERM disclosure is significantly and positively associated with the crisis, bank size, board independence, duality and significantly and negatively associated with profitability, leverage, and board size. This paper seeks to fill a gap in the literature by investigating the effect of the crisis on ERM disclosure in the US banking sector context, and gives an insight into the factors affecting risk disclosure practices during the financial crisis.
文摘As technology and the internet develop,more data are generated every day.These data are in large sizes,high dimensions,and complex structures.The combination of these three features is the“Big Data”[1].Big data is revolutionizing all industries,bringing colossal impacts to them[2].Many researchers have pointed out the huge impact that big data can have on our daily lives[3].We can utilize the information we obtain and help us make decisions.Also,the conclusions we drew from the big data we analyzed can be used as a prediction for the future,helping us to make more accurate and benign decisions earlier than others.If we apply these technics in finance,for example,in stock,we can get detailed information for stocks.Moreover,we can use the analyzed data to predict certain stocks.This can help people decide whether to buy a stock or not by providing predicted data for people at a certain convincing level,helping to protect them from potential losses.
基金The Philosophy and Social Sciences Program of Guangdong during the 11th Five-Year Plan Period for 2007(No.07D02)the Major Tender of Guangdong for 2007(No.KT005)
文摘To research the operating mechanisms of rural financial reform, through setting up a contract model, the constraint roles of reputation and legal intervention on the default risk arising in the operating of the credit union funds are inspected. Analysis indicates that the increase in reputation cost can reduce the probability of union member default behavior and the probability of turning to the law for the credit union funds. Meanwhile, the amount of loans and the interest rates can increase the probability of turning to the law for the credit union funds. Below the marginal values, the penalty mechanisms can reduce the balancing probabilities of member default behavior and turning to the law for the credit union funds, namely, the penalty has some "substitution effect" for turning to the law for the credit union funds.
基金sponsored by the National Social Science Foundation of China(Grant No.12&ZD089)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.71403277)
文摘Population ageing and high financial leverage are two common problems .faced by the worM's major economies. The recent financial crisis proved that the two issues could lead to systemic risk if not handled properly. Based on dynamic panel data from 1980 to 2012 in 119 countries, this paper examines the impact of population ageing on financial leverage J?om an empirical point of view and finds that there is a signOqcant inverted U-shape relationship between the two. In addition, empirical studies show that after passing the "turning point" of ageing, there will be a marked increase in the probability of financial crisis during the "deleveraging" process. It can be projected from the empirical conclusions of this paper that China will likely enter the range of a turning point between 2019 and 2028. After that, population ageing, deleveraging and asset price collapse may have a "resonance" effect to severely impact the stability of the financial system. Therefore, China should shift to more proactive macro financial regulations as quickly as possible, as dynamic and robust management of financial leverage and forward-looking control of bubbles could ensure that the financial system remain flexible enough to avoid systemic risk to the greatest extent.
基金Key project of National Social Scientific Fund--"Study on Financing Early-warning and Fixation of Listed Corporations in Information Technology Industry based on the Dynamic Monitoring of Industrial Risk"(Project approval Number:15AGL008)
文摘Based on Input-Output Table in 2010 issued by National Bureau of Statistics of China, with the help of input-output model and with the calculation of indexes of industrial relevance degree in Chinese information technology industry, the paper reveals the industrial relevance in Chinese information technology industry. The paper also selects the relevant industries which are highly associated with the development of Chinese information technology industry based on industrial relevance degree to analyze the influences of these industries on the financial situation risk fluctuation in information technology industry and to design the matrix of financial situation risk in information technology industry. Then, the paper offers countermeasures and suggestions for the development of our information technology industry.