Identifying the Northern Hemisphere (NH) temperature reconstruction and instrumental data forthe past 1000 years shows that climate change in the last millennium includes long-term trends and variousoscillations. Two ...Identifying the Northern Hemisphere (NH) temperature reconstruction and instrumental data forthe past 1000 years shows that climate change in the last millennium includes long-term trends and variousoscillations. Two long-term trends and the quasi-70-year oscillation were detected in the global temperatureseries for the last 140 years and the NH millennium series. One important feature was emphasized thattemperature decreases slowly but it increases rapidly based on the analysis of different series. Benefits can beobtained of climate change from understanding various long-term trends and oscillations. Millennial temperatureproxies from the natural climate system and time series of nonlinear model system are used in understanding thenatural climate change and recognizing potential benefits by using the method of wavelet transform analysis. Theresults from numerical modeling show that major oscillations contained in numerical solutions on theinterdecadal timescale are consistent with that of natural proxies. It seems that these oscillations in the climatechange are not directly linked with the solar radiation as an external forcing. This investigation may concludethat the climate variability at the interdecadal timescale strongly depends on the internal nonlinear effects in theclimate system.展开更多
The characteristics of climatic change and river runoff, as well as the response of river runoff to climatic change in the northern Xinjiang are analyzed on the basis of the hydrological and meteorological data over t...The characteristics of climatic change and river runoff, as well as the response of river runoff to climatic change in the northern Xinjiang are analyzed on the basis of the hydrological and meteorological data over the last 50 years by the methods of Mann-Kendall nonparametric test and the nonlinear regression model. The results show that: 1) The temperature and the precipitation increased significantly in the whole northern Xinjiang, but the precipitation displayed no obvious change, or even a decreasing trend in the northern mountainous area of the northern Xinjiang. 2) River runoff varied in different regions in the northern Xinjiang. It significantly increased in the northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains and the north of the northern Xinjiang (p = 0.05), while slightly increased in the west of the northern Xinjiang. 3) North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) affects river runoff by influencing temperature and precipitation. The NAO and precipitation had apparent significant correlations with the river runoff, but the temperature did not in the northern Xinjiang. Since the mid-1990s river runoff increase was mainly caused by the increasing temperature in the northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains and the north of the northern Xinjiang. Increased precipitation resulted in increased river runoff in the west of the northern Xinjiang.展开更多
Subseasonal to seasonal(S2S)variability represents the atmospheric disturbance on the 10–90-day timescale,which is an important bridge linking weather and climate.In 2015,China Meteorological Administration(CMA)liste...Subseasonal to seasonal(S2S)variability represents the atmospheric disturbance on the 10–90-day timescale,which is an important bridge linking weather and climate.In 2015,China Meteorological Administration(CMA)listed the S2S prediction project that was initiated by WMO programs three years ago as one of its key tasks.After five years of research,significant progress has been made on the mechanisms of the East Asian monsoon(EAM)S2S variability,related impact of climate change,as well as the predictability on the S2S timescale of numerical models.The S2S variability of the EAM is closely linked to extreme persistent climate events in China and is an important target for seasonal climate prediction.However,under the influence of global warming and the interactions among climate systems,the S2S variability of the EAM is so complex that its prediction remains a great challenge.This paper reviews the past achievement and summarizes the recent progress in research of the EAM S2S variability and prediction,including characteristics of the main S2S modes of the EAM,their impact on the extreme events in China,effects of external and internal forcing on the S2S variability,as well as uncertainties of climate models in predicting the S2S variability,with a focus on the progress achieved by the S2S research team of the Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences.The present bottlenecks,future directions,and critical research recommendations are also analyzed and presented.展开更多
基金National Natural Foundation of China (No.90502001), the doctoral project of the Ministry ofEducation of China and the State Key Development Program for Basic Research of China (2006CB400501)
文摘Identifying the Northern Hemisphere (NH) temperature reconstruction and instrumental data forthe past 1000 years shows that climate change in the last millennium includes long-term trends and variousoscillations. Two long-term trends and the quasi-70-year oscillation were detected in the global temperatureseries for the last 140 years and the NH millennium series. One important feature was emphasized thattemperature decreases slowly but it increases rapidly based on the analysis of different series. Benefits can beobtained of climate change from understanding various long-term trends and oscillations. Millennial temperatureproxies from the natural climate system and time series of nonlinear model system are used in understanding thenatural climate change and recognizing potential benefits by using the method of wavelet transform analysis. Theresults from numerical modeling show that major oscillations contained in numerical solutions on theinterdecadal timescale are consistent with that of natural proxies. It seems that these oscillations in the climatechange are not directly linked with the solar radiation as an external forcing. This investigation may concludethat the climate variability at the interdecadal timescale strongly depends on the internal nonlinear effects in theclimate system.
基金Under the auspices of Knowledge Innovation Programs of Chinese Academy of Sciences (No. KZCX2-YW-127, KZCX2-XB2-03-01, KZCX2-Q10-5-4)
文摘The characteristics of climatic change and river runoff, as well as the response of river runoff to climatic change in the northern Xinjiang are analyzed on the basis of the hydrological and meteorological data over the last 50 years by the methods of Mann-Kendall nonparametric test and the nonlinear regression model. The results show that: 1) The temperature and the precipitation increased significantly in the whole northern Xinjiang, but the precipitation displayed no obvious change, or even a decreasing trend in the northern mountainous area of the northern Xinjiang. 2) River runoff varied in different regions in the northern Xinjiang. It significantly increased in the northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains and the north of the northern Xinjiang (p = 0.05), while slightly increased in the west of the northern Xinjiang. 3) North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) affects river runoff by influencing temperature and precipitation. The NAO and precipitation had apparent significant correlations with the river runoff, but the temperature did not in the northern Xinjiang. Since the mid-1990s river runoff increase was mainly caused by the increasing temperature in the northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains and the north of the northern Xinjiang. Increased precipitation resulted in increased river runoff in the west of the northern Xinjiang.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(41830969)the Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research(STEP)Program(2019QZKK0105)+2 种基金National Natural Science Foundation of China(42005131)Basic Scientific Research and Operation Fund of the Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences(CAMS)(2021Z004)Science and Technology Development Fund of CAMS(2020KJ009 and 2020KJ012)。
文摘Subseasonal to seasonal(S2S)variability represents the atmospheric disturbance on the 10–90-day timescale,which is an important bridge linking weather and climate.In 2015,China Meteorological Administration(CMA)listed the S2S prediction project that was initiated by WMO programs three years ago as one of its key tasks.After five years of research,significant progress has been made on the mechanisms of the East Asian monsoon(EAM)S2S variability,related impact of climate change,as well as the predictability on the S2S timescale of numerical models.The S2S variability of the EAM is closely linked to extreme persistent climate events in China and is an important target for seasonal climate prediction.However,under the influence of global warming and the interactions among climate systems,the S2S variability of the EAM is so complex that its prediction remains a great challenge.This paper reviews the past achievement and summarizes the recent progress in research of the EAM S2S variability and prediction,including characteristics of the main S2S modes of the EAM,their impact on the extreme events in China,effects of external and internal forcing on the S2S variability,as well as uncertainties of climate models in predicting the S2S variability,with a focus on the progress achieved by the S2S research team of the Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences.The present bottlenecks,future directions,and critical research recommendations are also analyzed and presented.
